Melvin Gordon value

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kmbryant09
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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby kmbryant09 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:35 am

ericanadian wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:04 am
kmbryant09 wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:06 am
Kmani6 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:15 am

Sorry, but this is really wrong. Lindsay couldn’t even beat out Freeman as a 3rd down back. If you know how Lindsay plays he’s very much an early down runner and not some exceptional receiver that people are trying to make him out to be by comping him To Ekeler. Ekeler just came off a 92 reception 1000 receiving yard season, and was one of few backs that could depress MG3’s receiving abilities. On the other hand, Ekeler is not great on early downs and hasn’t been productive like Lindsay has. As a 3rd down back MG3 is great and he will be playing all 3rd downs in the Broncos offense. Lindsay will be an atypical scat back in that he will be splitting touches with MG3 on early downs, as opposed to playing 3rd downs like a normal scat back would. Freeman doesn’t have much of a role, and will be a backup for now.
While Lindsay struggled with some drops in the passing game this year, your take is mis-informed.

The coaching staff tried everyway possible to make Freeman work, just like they've done with previous draft busts at the RB position. The team laughably used Freeman as the pass-catching RB and Lindsay as the early-down grinder. Laughably stupid. And now the O-Coordinator is gone (gee, wonder why).

Lindsay made the team as an UDFA mostly because of his pass catching ability. His passing game work turned coaches heads in training camp and pre-season, leading to Von Miller saying Lindsay should at-worst be the team's 3rd down back - long before he had even secured a spot on the final roster.

Now I don't know if Lindsay has regressed, if his wrist injury hampered his ability to catch, or if the coaching staff was truly as dumb as they seemed - probably a combination of all 3 of those things.

But Lindsay should still be the lightning to Gordon's thunder, and they could form one of the better 1-2 punches in the league. Will the coaching staff finally find ways to put Lindsay into space instead of miscasting him as a between-the-tackles grinder? Possibly. On the surface, Gordon's presence probably hurts Lindsay's public perception / value. But maybe it will afford the coaching staff the between-the-tackles grinder they've been looking for, and can in turn move Lindsay into a satellite back similar to James White, Duke Johnson, Austin Ekeler, etc.
How is the team trying everything to make Freeman work not a huge red flag for Lindsay though? That they went out and put $8M in on an RB isn’t exactly a vote of confidence either, especially in a Shanahan zone read system where you can consistently pull effective talent later in the draft.

The one thing in Lindsay’s favour is that we know he can run effectively in an outside zone scheme. We assume Gordon can, but that’s not a guarantee in my view.
Ego, draft capital, failure to let go of player evaluations, etc.

It happens a lot in the NFL. Freeman was a 3rd round pick and was drafted to be the feature back of the Denver Broncos. As a rookie, he was thoroughly outplayed by an UDFA. Denver then changed up their entire coaching staff and hoped it would lead to a rebound Sophomore season for Freeman - and they afforded him every opportunity to take control of that backfield. When he was thoroughly outplayed as a runner by Lindsay (again), they decided to use Freeman as their passing-game RB - which was laughably stupid considering it was always a weakness of Freeman's (catching, eluding tacklers in space, and pass protection), while pass catching was a relative strength of Lindsay's.

The fact that Denver used a 5'8" / 190 lb RB as their between-the-tackles early-down grinder, and took him off the field in favor of a 6'0" / 240 lb grinder on passing downs is all you need to know about how mis-used this backfield has been.
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: J. Hurts, K. Murray
RB: Bi. Robinson, D. Henry, D. Achane, , J. Cook, Z. Charbonnet, T. Chandler, R. Johnson, K. Mitchell, J.K. Dobbins, T. Allgeier, J. McLaughlin, S. Tucker, T. Bigsby
WR: G. Wilson, B. Aiyuk, J. Waddle, T. Higgins,, Z. Flowers, Di. Johnson, K. Toney, A. Iosivas
TE: K. Pitts, E. Engram, C. Okonkwo, G. Dulcich

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Re: Is Melvin Gordon a buy low?

Postby Ice » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:17 am

IR1 wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:05 pm
_yeti wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:40 am In my TE premium (2ppr) league I am stacked at TE but only had Zeke and Carson at RB... people hold RBs with vice grips and I have been unsuccessful adding help there...

So I recently traded:

2020 1.7, 2021 1st, 2021 3rd
for
Melvin Gordon, Deion Jones, Cameron Jordan

I offered the trade but then got a little worried and unsure how I feel about it. I would expect the 2021 1st to be mid to low, won the league in 2018 and was 2nd highest scoring team in 2019 despite 6th place finish.

I think it is high for his current situation but I feel like I cannot buy a similar RB for anything reasonable.
Good value if the idp if heavy. Jones would be late 1st/early 2nd and Jordan would be mid 2nd in my league
In our IDP league it would be considered Trape.

Jones is a 20 point play and Jordan is a 16.5 point play. Jones is by far the best player in that deal. I own him in a league and wouldn't think about moving for 1.7 by himself even with slight injury concerns.
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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby dynastyninja » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:39 am

Excellent landing spot for MG in my opinion. I'm conflicted because I like Lindsay and think he will have a role, but Gordon owners should be happy. He's likely to get a lot of productive touches for DEN.

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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby ericanadian » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:32 am

kmbryant09 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:35 am
ericanadian wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:04 am
kmbryant09 wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:06 am
While Lindsay struggled with some drops in the passing game this year, your take is mis-informed.

The coaching staff tried everyway possible to make Freeman work, just like they've done with previous draft busts at the RB position. The team laughably used Freeman as the pass-catching RB and Lindsay as the early-down grinder. Laughably stupid. And now the O-Coordinator is gone (gee, wonder why).

Lindsay made the team as an UDFA mostly because of his pass catching ability. His passing game work turned coaches heads in training camp and pre-season, leading to Von Miller saying Lindsay should at-worst be the team's 3rd down back - long before he had even secured a spot on the final roster.

Now I don't know if Lindsay has regressed, if his wrist injury hampered his ability to catch, or if the coaching staff was truly as dumb as they seemed - probably a combination of all 3 of those things.

But Lindsay should still be the lightning to Gordon's thunder, and they could form one of the better 1-2 punches in the league. Will the coaching staff finally find ways to put Lindsay into space instead of miscasting him as a between-the-tackles grinder? Possibly. On the surface, Gordon's presence probably hurts Lindsay's public perception / value. But maybe it will afford the coaching staff the between-the-tackles grinder they've been looking for, and can in turn move Lindsay into a satellite back similar to James White, Duke Johnson, Austin Ekeler, etc.
How is the team trying everything to make Freeman work not a huge red flag for Lindsay though? That they went out and put $8M in on an RB isn’t exactly a vote of confidence either, especially in a Shanahan zone read system where you can consistently pull effective talent later in the draft.

The one thing in Lindsay’s favour is that we know he can run effectively in an outside zone scheme. We assume Gordon can, but that’s not a guarantee in my view.
Ego, draft capital, failure to let go of player evaluations, etc.

It happens a lot in the NFL. Freeman was a 3rd round pick and was drafted to be the feature back of the Denver Broncos. As a rookie, he was thoroughly outplayed by an UDFA. Denver then changed up their entire coaching staff and hoped it would lead to a rebound Sophomore season for Freeman - and they afforded him every opportunity to take control of that backfield. When he was thoroughly outplayed as a runner by Lindsay (again), they decided to use Freeman as their passing-game RB - which was laughably stupid considering it was always a weakness of Freeman's (catching, eluding tacklers in space, and pass protection), while pass catching was a relative strength of Lindsay's.

The fact that Denver used a 5'8" / 190 lb RB as their between-the-tackles early-down grinder, and took him off the field in favor of a 6'0" / 240 lb grinder on passing downs is all you need to know about how mis-used this backfield has been.
Terrell Davis was 5’11” 206 lbs.
Steve Slaton was 5’10” 195 lbs.
Tevin Coleman is 6’1” 210 lbs.
Raheem Mostert is 5’10” 197 lbs.
Devonta Freeman is 5’8” 206 lbs.
Justin Forsett was 5’8” 195 lbs.

Backs in an outside zone scheme are often right around his size and very effective. I don’t really worry about Lindsay’s size or his ability to perform as a lead back in a Shanahan style outside zone system.
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QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
LB - Brooks, R. Smith, Phillips
DL - Crosby, Allen, Simmons
DB - D. James, Baker, Delpit
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:22 pm

remedy29 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:22 am Denver, like most NFL backfields, will be using RBBC approach, just like they did last year. Gordon and Lindsay will produce, the only question is to what percentage of each. I think Melvin Gordon is safely in line to get 50-60% of the RB touches/playing time. 60% is similar to what he got in SD, so his real in game value will largely depend on Denver's offensive success which is tied to Drew Locks success.

For Gordon to get more than 60% and be a true bell cow for fantasy production, he'd have to vastly outplay Lindsay.

Personally, I think the backfield plays more to a 50/50 split between the two.

According to a Denver Beat reporter Mike Klis, he's being told the opposite by the Denver brass. Gordon will be the Broncos bell cow, so they according to him, and what they told him.
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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby remedy29 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:00 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:22 pm
remedy29 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:22 am Denver, like most NFL backfields, will be using RBBC approach, just like they did last year. Gordon and Lindsay will produce, the only question is to what percentage of each. I think Melvin Gordon is safely in line to get 50-60% of the RB touches/playing time. 60% is similar to what he got in SD, so his real in game value will largely depend on Denver's offensive success which is tied to Drew Locks success.

For Gordon to get more than 60% and be a true bell cow for fantasy production, he'd have to vastly outplay Lindsay.

Personally, I think the backfield plays more to a 50/50 split between the two.

According to a Denver Beat reporter Mike Klis, he's being told the opposite by the Denver brass. Gordon will be the Broncos bell cow, so they according to him, and what they told him.
So Mike Klis has an opinion. I have one too.

What exact does bell cow mean? Will Gordon get 100% of the touches, 80%, 60%? I can see a scenario where Gordon gets 60%, I don't see a scenario where Melvin Gordon keeps a pro bowl RB on the bench for less than 40% of the touches. I also don't see a scenario where Lindsay gets more than 50%. So In my opinion Gordon gets 50 to 60% of the touches, I'm leaning towards a 50/50 split.

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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:11 pm

remedy29 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:00 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:22 pm
remedy29 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:22 am Denver, like most NFL backfields, will be using RBBC approach, just like they did last year. Gordon and Lindsay will produce, the only question is to what percentage of each. I think Melvin Gordon is safely in line to get 50-60% of the RB touches/playing time. 60% is similar to what he got in SD, so his real in game value will largely depend on Denver's offensive success which is tied to Drew Locks success.

For Gordon to get more than 60% and be a true bell cow for fantasy production, he'd have to vastly outplay Lindsay.

Personally, I think the backfield plays more to a 50/50 split between the two.

According to a Denver Beat reporter Mike Klis, he's being told the opposite by the Denver brass. Gordon will be the Broncos bell cow, so they according to him, and what they told him.
So Mike Klis has an opinion. I have one too.

What exact does bell cow mean? Will Gordon get 100% of the touches, 80%, 60%? I can see a scenario where Gordon gets 60%, I don't see a scenario where Melvin Gordon keeps a pro bowl RB on the bench for less than 40% of the touches. I also don't see a scenario where Lindsay gets more than 50%. So In my opinion Gordon gets 50 to 60% of the touches, I'm leaning towards a 50/50 split.
Yeah, I get that. My point was, Mike Klis speaks to the people making the Broncos decisions, and you don't. You're entitled to your opinion, but his opinion is based on what he was being told by the people that run the team, and brought Gordon in. Doesn't mean it ends up working out that way, just that it's the plan. Your opinion could very well end up being right.
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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby Lord_Varys » Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:21 am

Don't have the numbers on hand but I remember reading that Lindsay is awful in pass pro which is why he kept ceding work. Per PFF among the worst in the league. Just cuz you're small and electric doesn't mean you're a great receiving back.

I'd bet that Melvin Gordon is closer to Bell cow than committee back, since he probably sees the majority of passing downs and goal line. Lindsay will be an electric change of pace. Just my best guess here, trying to read the tea leaves.

Anyone calling for a 50/50 split - believe in something, man!

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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby remedy29 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:49 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:11 pm
remedy29 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:00 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:22 pm


According to a Denver Beat reporter Mike Klis, he's being told the opposite by the Denver brass. Gordon will be the Broncos bell cow, so they according to him, and what they told him.
So Mike Klis has an opinion. I have one too.

What exact does bell cow mean? Will Gordon get 100% of the touches, 80%, 60%? I can see a scenario where Gordon gets 60%, I don't see a scenario where Melvin Gordon keeps a pro bowl RB on the bench for less than 40% of the touches. I also don't see a scenario where Lindsay gets more than 50%. So In my opinion Gordon gets 50 to 60% of the touches, I'm leaning towards a 50/50 split.
Yeah, I get that. My point was, Mike Klis speaks to the people making the Broncos decisions, and you don't. You're entitled to your opinion, but his opinion is based on what he was being told by the people that run the team, and brought Gordon in. Doesn't mean it ends up working out that way, just that it's the plan. Your opinion could very well end up being right.

I get that Mike Klis is the ultimate source of fantasy and football information, but does it matter at all that Lindsay is getting 50% of the touches in training camp?

https://www.9news.com/amp/article/sport ... 9e2f2c8507

Does it matter that there are reports that Lindsay is putting on a pass catching clinic in training camp?

I've said it before, but I don't see how Melvin Gordon regulates Lindsay to the Bench. Lindsay is way too good for a backup role. Lindsay is also suited for a RBBC role, and I fully expect Lindsay to have value in 2020 and beyond.


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