Melvin Gordon value

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Re: Is Melvin Gordon a buy low?

Postby ascherb » Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:24 pm

Sure, but MG owners don’t seem to be willing to sell super low.

If you own him, you’re holding out hope he is signed by Miami or someone who will feature him.

If you’re looking to buy him, you’re trying to get him for a discounted price due to the uncertainty.
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Re: Is Melvin Gordon a buy low?

Postby _yeti » Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:38 am

IR1 wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:05 pm
_yeti wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:40 am In my TE premium (2ppr) league I am stacked at TE but only had Zeke and Carson at RB... people hold RBs with vice grips and I have been unsuccessful adding help there...

So I recently traded:

2020 1.7, 2021 1st, 2021 3rd
for
Melvin Gordon, Deion Jones, Cameron Jordan

I offered the trade but then got a little worried and unsure how I feel about it. I would expect the 2021 1st to be mid to low, won the league in 2018 and was 2nd highest scoring team in 2019 despite 6th place finish.

I think it is high for his current situation but I feel like I cannot buy a similar RB for anything reasonable.
Good value if the idp if heavy. Jones would be late 1st/early 2nd and Jordan would be mid 2nd in my league
It's a start 2DL, 2LB, 2DB, 1IDP flex. It is high scoring IDP, Jordan scored 201.00 points which made him the DL4, which was the same amount (201) that Leveon scored as RB15. Only negative is Jordan turns 31 this summer, but he should have a few good years left.

If Jones can get back to his old ways, that will be massive.

No matter how you pump up the scoring people always don't trade much for IDPs and don't give them enough value. Because of that I still looked at it like about 2 firsts for Gordon, but yeah Jordan and Jones definitely could be worth about half that deal, especially with Jones youth and the massive numbers he put up in 2017.
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Re: Is Melvin Gordon a buy low?

Postby DJB » Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:50 pm

I doubt people are going to invest in Gordon until they find out where he lands in free agency
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Melvin Gordon value

Postby Sfoster2625 » Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:17 am

What y’alls opinion on his value in Denver? Will him and Lindsey have more of a 50/50 role or will Gordon dominate touches and Lindsey ends up being a change of pace back?
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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby grandmabetty » Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:20 am

The Landing spot isnt good for his trade value as Lindsey is perceived, rightly so, as someone who will command a part of the offense. Regarding his fantasy value to the owner though I dont think it's too bad. Denver usually produces a good running game and with sutton and fant they should have enough weapons in the passing game to keep defenses honest. I think with vic vangio in tow and a rookie QB they would like to pound the rock and play D if the can. I'm predicting 12 TDS and 50+ catches if Gordon can stay healthy.

In short this hurt his trade value and his real value remained about the same. He falls somewhere in the 8-15 RB range for me

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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:25 am

Not confident that I would give up a 1st for Gordon right now unless I was absolutely desperate for some starting RB.

Most of Gordon's appeal over the years has boiled down to:

- Volume
- Touchdown rate

S1: 217 touches, 0 TD
S2: 295 touches, 12 TD
S3: 342 touches, 12 TD
S4: 225 touches, 14 TD (12 games, was on pace for 300 touches)
S5: 204 touches, 9 TD (sat out 4 games)

Now he's sharing a backfield with Lindsey who will likely take away most of the receiving value he developed and I don't expect the TD rate to follow either.

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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:55 am

Lindsay will continue to get his. Gordon will be what they hoped Freeman could be

He's a hold and, IMO, in one of the better landing spots he could have been. Miami and TB are the two off the top of my head that would have been. better from a volume standpoint, but Gordon will be a solid rb2

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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby esloan35 » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:38 am

Lindsay will be Ekeler and Gordon will be the thunder. Lindsay has more heart than most, he won't just go away.

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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby Kmani6 » Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:15 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:25 am Not confident that I would give up a 1st for Gordon right now unless I was absolutely desperate for some starting RB.

Most of Gordon's appeal over the years has boiled down to:

- Volume
- Touchdown rate

S1: 217 touches, 0 TD
S2: 295 touches, 12 TD
S3: 342 touches, 12 TD
S4: 225 touches, 14 TD (12 games, was on pace for 300 touches)
S5: 204 touches, 9 TD (sat out 4 games)

Now he's sharing a backfield with Lindsey who will likely take away most of the receiving value he developed and I don't expect the TD rate to follow either.
Sorry, but this is really wrong. Lindsay couldn’t even beat out Freeman as a 3rd down back. If you know how Lindsay plays he’s very much an early down runner and not some exceptional receiver that people are trying to make him out to be by comping him To Ekeler. Ekeler just came off a 92 reception 1000 receiving yard season, and was one of few backs that could depress MG3’s receiving abilities. On the other hand, Ekeler is not great on early downs and hasn’t been productive like Lindsay has. As a 3rd down back MG3 is great and he will be playing all 3rd downs in the Broncos offense. Lindsay will be an atypical scat back in that he will be splitting touches with MG3 on early downs, as opposed to playing 3rd downs like a normal scat back would. Freeman doesn’t have much of a role, and will be a backup for now.
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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:14 am

Kmani6 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:15 am Sorry, but this is really wrong. Lindsay couldn’t even beat out Freeman as a 3rd down back. If you know how Lindsay plays he’s very much an early down runner and not some exceptional receiver that people are trying to make him out to be by comping him To Ekeler. Ekeler just came off a 92 reception 1000 receiving yard season, and was one of few backs that could depress MG3’s receiving abilities. On the other hand, Ekeler is not great on early downs and hasn’t been productive like Lindsay has. As a 3rd down back MG3 is great and he will be playing all 3rd downs in the Broncos offense. Lindsay will be an atypical scat back in that he will be splitting touches with MG3 on early downs, as opposed to playing 3rd downs like a normal scat back would. Freeman doesn’t have much of a role, and will be a backup for now.
Lindsay and Freeman shared a nearly identical snap rate (50.4 to 50.1) last year, but the use was not comparable.

Touches:
2018: Lindsay: 227 / Freeman: 144
2019: Lindsay: 259 / Freeman: 175

Receptions (Targets):
2018: Lindsay: 35 (47) / Freeman: 14 (20)
2019: Lindsay: 35 (48) / Freeman: 43 (50)

Maybe Freeman's pass protection was better? I don't know, but Denver used Lindsay just as much as Freeman in the passing game.

I'm not suggesting that Lindsay is Ekeler, because he's not. However, I think Lindsay is a better receiver than Gordon and will play much more in passing situations.

For the price Gordon owners would want, I just wouldn't be interested. The volume and TD rate will not be there anymore. I think we've already seen Gordon's peak production and trade value, so there's not much redeeming about trading a 1st for him to me.
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:16 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby Dynasty_Analyst » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:16 am

I've acquired him in one league for a projected late 2021 first/2.05 and I sold him for the 1.11/2.08 in another. Both right before he signed both 6 pt TD Superflex so the picks will have some extra value with QBs going high. Not sure how I feel about either one.
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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:07 am

Johnny B. Goode wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:55 am Lindsay will continue to get his. Gordon will be what they hoped Freeman could be

He's a hold and, IMO, in one of the better landing spots he could have been. Miami and TB are the two off the top of my head that would have been. better from a volume standpoint, but Gordon will be a solid rb2
https://www.si.com/nfl/broncos/news/mel ... ip-lindsay

Not according to local Denver reports. Gordon is going to be the Bell cow, so 200 plus carries is probably out for Lindsay.
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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby kmbryant09 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:06 am

Kmani6 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:15 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:25 am Not confident that I would give up a 1st for Gordon right now unless I was absolutely desperate for some starting RB.

Most of Gordon's appeal over the years has boiled down to:

- Volume
- Touchdown rate

S1: 217 touches, 0 TD
S2: 295 touches, 12 TD
S3: 342 touches, 12 TD
S4: 225 touches, 14 TD (12 games, was on pace for 300 touches)
S5: 204 touches, 9 TD (sat out 4 games)

Now he's sharing a backfield with Lindsey who will likely take away most of the receiving value he developed and I don't expect the TD rate to follow either.
Sorry, but this is really wrong. Lindsay couldn’t even beat out Freeman as a 3rd down back. If you know how Lindsay plays he’s very much an early down runner and not some exceptional receiver that people are trying to make him out to be by comping him To Ekeler. Ekeler just came off a 92 reception 1000 receiving yard season, and was one of few backs that could depress MG3’s receiving abilities. On the other hand, Ekeler is not great on early downs and hasn’t been productive like Lindsay has. As a 3rd down back MG3 is great and he will be playing all 3rd downs in the Broncos offense. Lindsay will be an atypical scat back in that he will be splitting touches with MG3 on early downs, as opposed to playing 3rd downs like a normal scat back would. Freeman doesn’t have much of a role, and will be a backup for now.
While Lindsay struggled with some drops in the passing game this year, your take is mis-informed.

The coaching staff tried everyway possible to make Freeman work, just like they've done with previous draft busts at the RB position. The team laughably used Freeman as the pass-catching RB and Lindsay as the early-down grinder. Laughably stupid. And now the O-Coordinator is gone (gee, wonder why).

Lindsay made the team as an UDFA mostly because of his pass catching ability. His passing game work turned coaches heads in training camp and pre-season, leading to Von Miller saying Lindsay should at-worst be the team's 3rd down back - long before he had even secured a spot on the final roster.

Now I don't know if Lindsay has regressed, if his wrist injury hampered his ability to catch, or if the coaching staff was truly as dumb as they seemed - probably a combination of all 3 of those things.

But Lindsay should still be the lightning to Gordon's thunder, and they could form one of the better 1-2 punches in the league. Will the coaching staff finally find ways to put Lindsay into space instead of miscasting him as a between-the-tackles grinder? Possibly. On the surface, Gordon's presence probably hurts Lindsay's public perception / value. But maybe it will afford the coaching staff the between-the-tackles grinder they've been looking for, and can in turn move Lindsay into a satellite back similar to James White, Duke Johnson, Austin Ekeler, etc.
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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby ericanadian » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:04 am

kmbryant09 wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:06 am
Kmani6 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:15 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:25 am Not confident that I would give up a 1st for Gordon right now unless I was absolutely desperate for some starting RB.

Most of Gordon's appeal over the years has boiled down to:

- Volume
- Touchdown rate

S1: 217 touches, 0 TD
S2: 295 touches, 12 TD
S3: 342 touches, 12 TD
S4: 225 touches, 14 TD (12 games, was on pace for 300 touches)
S5: 204 touches, 9 TD (sat out 4 games)

Now he's sharing a backfield with Lindsey who will likely take away most of the receiving value he developed and I don't expect the TD rate to follow either.
Sorry, but this is really wrong. Lindsay couldn’t even beat out Freeman as a 3rd down back. If you know how Lindsay plays he’s very much an early down runner and not some exceptional receiver that people are trying to make him out to be by comping him To Ekeler. Ekeler just came off a 92 reception 1000 receiving yard season, and was one of few backs that could depress MG3’s receiving abilities. On the other hand, Ekeler is not great on early downs and hasn’t been productive like Lindsay has. As a 3rd down back MG3 is great and he will be playing all 3rd downs in the Broncos offense. Lindsay will be an atypical scat back in that he will be splitting touches with MG3 on early downs, as opposed to playing 3rd downs like a normal scat back would. Freeman doesn’t have much of a role, and will be a backup for now.
While Lindsay struggled with some drops in the passing game this year, your take is mis-informed.

The coaching staff tried everyway possible to make Freeman work, just like they've done with previous draft busts at the RB position. The team laughably used Freeman as the pass-catching RB and Lindsay as the early-down grinder. Laughably stupid. And now the O-Coordinator is gone (gee, wonder why).

Lindsay made the team as an UDFA mostly because of his pass catching ability. His passing game work turned coaches heads in training camp and pre-season, leading to Von Miller saying Lindsay should at-worst be the team's 3rd down back - long before he had even secured a spot on the final roster.

Now I don't know if Lindsay has regressed, if his wrist injury hampered his ability to catch, or if the coaching staff was truly as dumb as they seemed - probably a combination of all 3 of those things.

But Lindsay should still be the lightning to Gordon's thunder, and they could form one of the better 1-2 punches in the league. Will the coaching staff finally find ways to put Lindsay into space instead of miscasting him as a between-the-tackles grinder? Possibly. On the surface, Gordon's presence probably hurts Lindsay's public perception / value. But maybe it will afford the coaching staff the between-the-tackles grinder they've been looking for, and can in turn move Lindsay into a satellite back similar to James White, Duke Johnson, Austin Ekeler, etc.
How is the team trying everything to make Freeman work not a huge red flag for Lindsay though? That they went out and put $8M in on an RB isn’t exactly a vote of confidence either, especially in a Shanahan zone read system where you can consistently pull effective talent later in the draft.

The one thing in Lindsay’s favour is that we know he can run effectively in an outside zone scheme. We assume Gordon can, but that’s not a guarantee in my view.
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Re: Melvin Gordon value

Postby remedy29 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:22 am

Denver, like most NFL backfields, will be using RBBC approach, just like they did last year. Gordon and Lindsay will produce, the only question is to what percentage of each. I think Melvin Gordon is safely in line to get 50-60% of the RB touches/playing time. 60% is similar to what he got in SD, so his real in game value will largely depend on Denver's offensive success which is tied to Drew Locks success.

For Gordon to get more than 60% and be a true bell cow for fantasy production, he'd have to vastly outplay Lindsay.

Personally, I think the backfield plays more to a 50/50 split between the two.


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