Deshaun Watson without Hopkins

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby jimmychoi » Tue Oct 31, 2017 3:03 am

Gotcha and I hear ya Cameron...so you’re not saying he’s going to be bad, but you are saying he’s not this good yet.
Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:23 pm
jimmychoi wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:29 pm
I guess I’m confused. Are a whole bunch of you saying he will no longer be successful because defense will adjust, and he will then, in turn, be unable to adjust and progress? I don’t think he’s the number one, but I like his talent.
Watson has a 9.3 TD% in 7 games. Just for context, only two QB's have ever finished a season with a TD% of 9 or better with at least 200 pass attempts:

Peyton Manning - 2004 (49 touchdowns)
Ken Stabler - 1976 (27 touchdowns)

So, the question is what happens when Watson inevitably regresses and defenses start to figure this out? It's not to say that Watson can't adjust himself, but right now we're seeing a ridiculously unsustainable stretch of games. Watson is on pace for 43 passing touchdowns....as a rookie. His value should definitely increase, especially in Superflex where he's probably worth a king's ransom. But, we should wait before crowning him QB1. Houston's offense isn't gimmicky, but I don't think we're going to see Will Fuller making half of his catches touchdowns going forward.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Tvols » Tue Oct 31, 2017 7:34 pm

I traded Watson for a mid to early 1st and 2nd ...

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Tvols » Tue Oct 31, 2017 7:34 pm

I traded Watson for a mid to early 1st and 2nd ...

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby FFFAN » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:15 pm

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:09 am
ninotoreS wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:06 am
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:58 am
but we've seen great runs by QBs before
Not by a rookie, not like this. He's breaking records with every passing week.
Cam? RG3?

Give him credit, he's killing it. But it won't be maintained. That's not ripping him, it's just reality.
If he was white no one would compare him to Rg3 or cam. More likely to be compared to Andrew luck if he were white. The man is absolutely special.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby ArrylT » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:16 pm

sugbear65 wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:02 pm
Here's a scary thought- what if this is his mean? What if what you are seeing is the greatest rookie QB season of the modern era? Do you have to wait all 16 games to acknowledge it? And how many games does it take for defenses to "adjust"? They have plenty of film of him throwing TDs if that's what it takes.
I'm not an expert when it comes to NFL team prep - but everything I've read suggests that NFL teams usually prepare for the teams on their schedule the week prior to playing them. IE the scout team takes on the role of the opposing team. So the Colts, their next opponent, are only preparing for Houston now. So while they may have 6 weeks of tape, they really only will have had 1 week of prep to face a Watson led offence. And it is not like an NFL team organization has unlimited resources - as much as we'd like to assume so - nor can they spend all those resources watching film on one player on one team for one game. Maybe a couple of personnel will spend X number of hours watching all the film on Watson, but the majority of the coaches / personnel / players will have less than 1 week prep time for a player they've had no actual physical experience playing against.

Someone else feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1756 ... in-the-nfl

https://www.newsday.com/sports/football ... -1.9218497
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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby sloth8u » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:41 pm

FFFAN wrote:
Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:15 pm
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:09 am
ninotoreS wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:06 am


Not by a rookie, not like this. He's breaking records with every passing week.
Cam? RG3?

Give him credit, he's killing it. But it won't be maintained. That's not ripping him, it's just reality.
If he was white no one would compare him to Rg3 or cam. More likely to be compared to Andrew luck if he were white. The man is absolutely special.
It isn't about race, although he is a scrambling qb....it's about young qb with limited sample size that we all want to talk about being the qb 1 or top 5 qb. It happens every year.

It is irrelevant unless your in a league that starts multiple qbs. Most teams already have a qb they are comfortable with. You have landed yourself a weekly starter or depth hopefuly.

Someone mentioned trading him for a mid 1st. Let's say he is qb1 overall...You sell for 1.6. You are taking a loss in the value department. Let's say you keep him, great. You have a set and forget qb like most other teams in your league.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Water Buffalo » Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:37 am

FFFAN wrote:
Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:15 pm
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:09 am
ninotoreS wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:06 am


Not by a rookie, not like this. He's breaking records with every passing week.
Cam? RG3?

Give him credit, he's killing it. But it won't be maintained. That's not ripping him, it's just reality.
If he was white no one would compare him to Rg3 or cam. More likely to be compared to Andrew luck if he were white. The man is absolutely special.
Methinks someone needs to look up the definition of "compare" and then reread what was said.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby ninotoreS » Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:44 am

sloth8u wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:52 am
i believe that your missing the point. most could care less who the overall qb 1 is. we could run down a list of the top scoring qb every year and most times we would find that it means absolutely nothing besides that you have an every week starter.
First of all, this wasn't a point eligible for missing because pac_eddy wasn't making it.

Second, your point is false, regardless; in the last 10 years, we've seen over and over again mega-statistical seasons by QBs that have played a major role in winning fantasy championships. The multiple seasons by Peyton and Brees featuring an automatic expectation of ~300 yards and ~2.5 TDs every week, Brady's various juggernaut seasons, Rodgers and Stafford in '11, Luck in '14, Newton in '15...

These seasons won fantasy championships for many fantasy owners, especially in dynasty leagues.

It's important to bear in mind the difference in context here between redraft and dynasty. In redraft, to get one of the top projected 3/4 QBs, it's generally necessary to pass on an elite WR or RB. But dynasty owners don't have this dilemma; the super-elite QB is a bird already in hand, and thus they represent a yearly, weekly line-up advantage, minus the yearly cost to acquire it.

While it's certainly true that in the mid to low QB1 range the weekly production expectation is practically interchangeable, this is not so true for the super-elite tier. Whereas others can reasonably hope for, say, 15 fantasy points from their QB1 in a given week, the owner of one of the few truly elite QBs of that season can reasonably hope for 25. With upside for much more, of course. Slot vs slot, this is a difference maker in a weekly head-to-head.

Bottom line: owning one of the career-long top three or four QBs in dynasty *is* a significant weekly and yearly advantage.
StableOfRBs wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:17 am
Can't wait to have this conversation about Jackson or Darnold or Rosen or whoever in the next year or two, though.
You think one of them is gonna be on pace for forty touchdowns after eight games as a rookie? Good luck with that prediction.

Here's the historical context for what Watson is doing: https://www.si.com/nfl/photo/2016/10/11 ... fl-history. At this point, only RG3's rookie year has a chance of staying in the same ballpark, and would require Watson's pace plummeting to 1 TD a week the rest of the way.
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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby maxhyde » Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:50 am

ninotoreS wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:44 am

Here's the historical context for what Watson is doing: https://www.si.com/nfl/photo/2016/10/11 ... fl-history. At this point, only RG3's rookie year has a chance of staying in the same ballpark, and would require Watson's pace plummeting to 1 TD a week the rest of the way.
Unless you are forgetting your own point about context this is exactly the point. The rate is unsustainable unless you think he is the best QB we have seen in the NFL ever...
I am going to say I was wrong about him and what he is doing is amazing. However I have seen far too many QB's dominate in stretches and get overvalued as a result in recent years to believe this is sustainable long term. He has inspired his team to go out and make great plays for him by making great plays himself. He is off to a great start to his career
Like everything in fantasy ride the hot hand while you can and consider yourself fortunate to have unexpected levels production
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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Concept Coop » Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:21 am

sloth8u wrote:
Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:41 pm
It isn't about race, although he is a scrambling qb....it's about young qb with limited sample size that we all want to talk about being the qb 1 or top 5 qb. It happens every year.
Does it?

I remember it happening twice, in my decade or so in the hobby: RG3 and Cam. I haven't done the VBD math, but I think Cam has been top 5 since coming into the league. Some ups and downs, but he's got a few top 5 seasons under his belt, including a #1 finish. He's won leagues for a lot of owners.

We can't forget how great RG3 was for a stretch. It's easy to assume he'd have busted despite the injuries, but I don't think that's the case. I think it was a reasonable risk to treat RG3 as a top 5 dyansty QB at one point, even though it didn't work out. The upside was huge. But he was always a huge risk as well. He had torn his ACL twice in college. He had a tiny frame. He was running a gimmick offense. None of those red flags apply to Watson. Watson is running a demanding NFL offense and being asked to make pre-snap reads. He's going to have to get better at going through is progressions, and he makes some bad throws, but that's normal at this stage.

What Watson is doing is not normal, and I certainly don't think it happens every year.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Concept Coop » Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:31 am

maxhyde wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:50 am
ninotoreS wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:44 am

Here's the historical context for what Watson is doing: https://www.si.com/nfl/photo/2016/10/11 ... fl-history. At this point, only RG3's rookie year has a chance of staying in the same ballpark, and would require Watson's pace plummeting to 1 TD a week the rest of the way.
Unless you are forgetting your own point about context this is exactly the point. The rate is unsustainable unless you think he is the best QB we have seen in the NFL ever...
I am going to say I was wrong about him and what he is doing is amazing. However I have seen far too many QB's dominate in stretches and get overvalued as a result in recent years to believe this is sustainable long term. He has inspired his team to go out and make great plays for him by making great plays himself. He is off to a great start to his career
Like everything in fantasy ride the hot hand while you can and consider yourself fortunate to have unexpected levels production
What does his TD rate being unsustainable have to do with his dynasty value, though? We all know he'll come back down to earth. Even building that into his value, I think he has a strong argument for QB2 or 3. It's hard for me to put much stock in age beyond 5 years or so, so I'm still taking Rodgers #1. But after that, what do we have? Wilson has a solid argument. Dak and Wentz have small sample sizes themselves - and Watson's already had a stretch as impressive as anything they've done, fantasy wise. Luck is a huge question mark right now. Newton is running less and is up and down.

I guess my point is simply that Watson's value is very high, despite the coming regression. Even his fans don't expect him to throw 45 TDs every year.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby StableOfRBs » Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:41 am

ninotoreS wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:44 am
sloth8u wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:52 am
i believe that your missing the point. most could care less who the overall qb 1 is. we could run down a list of the top scoring qb every year and most times we would find that it means absolutely nothing besides that you have an every week starter.
First of all, this wasn't a point eligible for missing because pac_eddy wasn't making it.

Second, your point is false, regardless; in the last 10 years, we've seen over and over again mega-statistical seasons by QBs that have played a major role in winning fantasy championships. The multiple seasons by Peyton and Brees featuring an automatic expectation of ~300 yards and ~2.5 TDs every week, Brady's various juggernaut seasons, Rodgers and Stafford in '11, Luck in '14, Newton in '15...

These seasons won fantasy championships for many fantasy owners, especially in dynasty leagues.

It's important to bear in mind the difference in context here between redraft and dynasty. In redraft, to get one of the top projected 3/4 QBs, it's generally necessary to pass on an elite WR or RB. But dynasty owners don't have this dilemma; the super-elite QB is a bird already in hand, and thus they represent a yearly, weekly line-up advantage, minus the yearly cost to acquire it.

While it's certainly true that in the mid to low QB1 range the weekly production expectation is practically interchangeable, this is not so true for the super-elite tier. Whereas others can reasonably hope for, say, 15 fantasy points from their QB1 in a given week, the owner of one of the few truly elite QBs of that season can reasonably hope for 25. With upside for much more, of course. Slot vs slot, this is a difference maker in a weekly head-to-head.

Bottom line: owning one of the career-long top three or four QBs in dynasty *is* a significant weekly and yearly advantage.
StableOfRBs wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:17 am
Can't wait to have this conversation about Jackson or Darnold or Rosen or whoever in the next year or two, though.
You think one of them is gonna be on pace for forty touchdowns after eight games as a rookie? Good luck with that prediction.

Here's the historical context for what Watson is doing: https://www.si.com/nfl/photo/2016/10/11 ... fl-history. At this point, only RG3's rookie year has a chance of staying in the same ballpark, and would require Watson's pace plummeting to 1 TD a week the rest of the way.
What? God no, that's taking what I said incredibly literally. But one of the QBs I mentioned, or possibly another one altogether, is going to have a great stretch of games their rookie year and everyone will try to extrapolate and project those stats on the players entire career and talk about how that QB is the new #1 QB in dynasty.

This is the same problem people have with guys like Sammy Watkins or Jay Ajayi or even Tarik Cohen this year. They see the great plays (Watkins second half of 2015, Ajayi's 200 yard games, Cohen's first few games this year) a 2nd they say this Is what we should expect from these guys every year even though the average is much lower and more sustainable.

I would never predict any QB to be on pace for over 40 TDs in a season, whether it's Rodgers or Brady or any of the still-college aged QBs I mentioned, because in order to predict it i would have to expect it and in order to expect it i would have to assume that those numbers are their average and I just don't believe that, especially given that of the consensus top 4 QBs for TDs (Manning, Brews, Rodgers, Brady) the most any of them has averaged for their careers, Rodgers, is 33.5 TDs per season.

So, no, I don't think they'll be on pace for 40+ TDs as a rookie, much the same way I don't think Watson actually ends up with that many by the end of the year, because extrapolating on small sample sizes (which is exactly what a player's first 8 games is) is a pointless and inaccurate use of analytics.
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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby maxhyde » Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:00 pm

Concept Coop wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:31 am
maxhyde wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:50 am
ninotoreS wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:44 am

Here's the historical context for what Watson is doing: https://www.si.com/nfl/photo/2016/10/11 ... fl-history. At this point, only RG3's rookie year has a chance of staying in the same ballpark, and would require Watson's pace plummeting to 1 TD a week the rest of the way.
Unless you are forgetting your own point about context this is exactly the point. The rate is unsustainable unless you think he is the best QB we have seen in the NFL ever...
I am going to say I was wrong about him and what he is doing is amazing. However I have seen far too many QB's dominate in stretches and get overvalued as a result in recent years to believe this is sustainable long term. He has inspired his team to go out and make great plays for him by making great plays himself. He is off to a great start to his career
Like everything in fantasy ride the hot hand while you can and consider yourself fortunate to have unexpected levels production
What does his TD rate being unsustainable have to do with his dynasty value, though? We all know he'll come back down to earth. Even building that into his value, I think he has a strong argument for QB2 or 3. It's hard for me to put much stock in age beyond 5 years or so, so I'm still taking Rodgers #1. But after that, what do we have? Wilson has a solid argument. Dak and Wentz have small sample sizes themselves - and Watson's already had a stretch as impressive as anything they've done, fantasy wise. Luck is a huge question mark right now. Newton is running less and is up and down.

I guess my point is simply that Watson's value is very high, despite the coming regression. Even his fans don't expect him to throw 45 TDs every year.
Well you are exactly the owner I would love to talk with then concerning dealing Watson away.
I am still going to take take all the guys you listed and Wilson easily over Watson in dynasty. I don't think having 3X as many games is the same small sample size for Wentz/Dak but to each their own. Its what makes dynasty fun
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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Concept Coop » Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:49 pm

maxhyde wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:00 pm
Well you are exactly the owner I would love to talk with then concerning dealing Watson away.
I am still going to take take all the guys you listed and Wilson easily over Watson in dynasty. I don't think having 3X as many games is the same small sample size for Wentz/Dak but to each their own. Its what makes dynasty fun
Absolutely. FTR, I didn't say Watson had the same sample size as Wetnz and Dak. I've got both guys in my top tier, so I like them as much as the next guy. I just think Watson belongs in that same conversation.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby sloth8u » Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:18 pm

Concept Coop wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:21 am
sloth8u wrote:
Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:41 pm
....it's about young qb with limited sample size that we all want to talk about being the qb 1 or top 5 qb. It happens every year.
Does it?
Feel free to post the dynasty qb rankings. It's a who's who list of all the young qbs that we discuss each year.

In short, yes...this is a conversation that pops up or has popped up frequently in the past.

That's not taking anything away from watson, but putting everything in to perspective.


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