Deshaun Watson without Hopkins

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Concept Coop » Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:58 am

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:58 am
Nope. He'll regress to the mean. He's had a great start to his career, but we've seen great runs by QBs before and no one can maintain this pace. Not even Brady or Rodgers.
Of course he will, but he's only 22 YO. He also offers rushing production which greatly pads both his floor and ceiling. I'm not sure I'm ready to make him the top QB, but it's silly to scoff at the notion.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Concept Coop » Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:05 am

sloth8u wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:03 am
Dare we consider....he's rg3

Let's be realistic here. It's his 1st time through the schedule. Very impressive, but coordinators will adjust. 1 injury could. Change a lot of things, ask arod and luck owners. Other young qbs have flashed only to come back down to earth.
What does he have in common with RG3? He's running a legitiate NFL offense, doesn't have the injury history, and has a much better build than RG3.

Yes, Watson will come back down to earth, but what does that look like? He's doing some pretty incredible things and carrying himself as though he expected it. The QB landscape is wide open right now, with a bunch of solid options, but nobody really separating themselves. I have no issue with anyone treating him as the QB1, especially when it's so easy to find baseline production for your backup. Roll the dice on Watson and, if he flames out, guys like Stafford cost very little.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Phaded » Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:46 pm

I think the most impressive thing to me about Watson is not the statistics - clearly that will regress. It is what I see on the field.

He has poise. When he makes a mistake he does not get rattled and keeps swinging. He is not afraid to take shots down field and does so pretty accurately. The kid already looks like a pro and that is what is impressive about it.

I can only imagine how much better he could be with a good offensive line or a run game.

Lot of reasons to be excited about him. RG3 is a very lazy comparison.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:55 pm

Phaded wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:46 pm

He has poise. When he makes a mistake he does not get rattled and keeps swinging. He is not afraid to take shots down field and does so pretty accurately. The kid already looks like a pro and that is what is impressive about it.
i agree, same kind of takeaway you could make from dak last year
Phaded wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:46 pm
RG3 is a very lazy comparison.
sigh... you know what people mean. Does everything on this forum need to be nitpicking semantics.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby dm1129 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:43 pm

Everyone needs to remember what Nick Foles did in Chip Kelly's offense before defenses adjusted........

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Phaded » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:49 pm

dm1129 wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:43 pm
Everyone needs to remember what Nick Foles did in Chip Kelly's offense before defenses adjusted........
Chip Kelly had a vanilla college-style offense that was based on tempo and tiring out the D.

Watson is running a legit NFL offense. Some play action involved but it is nothing new.

I agree with the premise that teams will adjust - but comparing this offense or any offense to what Kelly did is not a good point. There is good reason Chip Kelly is gone.

And Nick Foles never looked like a stud.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby dm1129 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:51 pm

Phaded wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:49 pm
dm1129 wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:43 pm
Everyone needs to remember what Nick Foles did in Chip Kelly's offense before defenses adjusted........
Chip Kelly had a vanilla college-style offense that was based on tempo and tiring out the D.

Watson is running a legit NFL offense. Some play action involved but it is nothing new.

I agree with the premise that teams will adjust - but comparing this offense or any offense to what Kelly did is not a good point. There is good reason Chip Kelly is gone.

And Nick Foles never looked like a stud.
That simply isn't true. Houston has largely implemented the offense Watson played while in college, that is why he is so comfortable right now and defensive coordinators have not adjusted yet. It will happen.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Phaded » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:55 pm

dm1129 wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:51 pm
Phaded wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:49 pm
dm1129 wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:43 pm
Everyone needs to remember what Nick Foles did in Chip Kelly's offense before defenses adjusted........
Chip Kelly had a vanilla college-style offense that was based on tempo and tiring out the D.

Watson is running a legit NFL offense. Some play action involved but it is nothing new.

I agree with the premise that teams will adjust - but comparing this offense or any offense to what Kelly did is not a good point. There is good reason Chip Kelly is gone.

And Nick Foles never looked like a stud.
That simply isn't true. Houston has largely implemented the offense Watson played while in college, that is why he is so comfortable right now and defensive coordinators have not adjusted yet. It will happen.
It doesn't look like anything "new" to me from everything I have seen.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby sugbear65 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:02 pm

Here's a scary thought- what if this is his mean? What if what you are seeing is the greatest rookie QB season of the modern era? Do you have to wait all 16 games to acknowledge it? And how many games does it take for defenses to "adjust"? They have plenty of film of him throwing TDs if that's what it takes.
I'm just saying it seems like an awful lot of pooh-poohing what Watson has accomplished, and accepting of a downturn as an inevitable around here. I think he has looked fantastic this year, and am excited to see him keep playing. Thus far he is far more impressive than RG3 or Cam were as rookies. QB1 overall? Not quite yet for me, but he's top 3-5 with the chance to jump up there by this offseason for me.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Phaded » Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:10 pm

Deshaun Watson is like the real life version of when you play Madden as a QB!

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby StableOfRBs » Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:01 pm

sugbear65 wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:02 pm
Here's a scary thought- what if this is his mean? What if what you are seeing is the greatest rookie QB season of the modern era? Do you have to wait all 16 games to acknowledge it? And how many games does it take for defenses to "adjust"? They have plenty of film of him throwing TDs if that's what it takes.
I'm just saying it seems like an awful lot of pooh-poohing what Watson has accomplished, and accepting of a downturn as an inevitable around here. I think he has looked fantastic this year, and am excited to see him keep playing. Thus far he is far more impressive than RG3 or Cam were as rookies. QB1 overall? Not quite yet for me, but he's top 3-5 with the chance to jump up there by this offseason for me.
So the greatest since last year? Dak had the greatest season by a rookie QB in NFL history last year, he leads all rookies in history in a ton of categories including completion %, TD%, Ints, Int%, QB rating, yards/attempt, air yards/attempt and wins and he's tied with Luck for the second most passing TDs (behind Peyton).

As it stands right now Watson has Dak beat in terms of yards/attempt and TD% although the TD% should come back down a bit before the season is over, he's currently set to have the second best TD% in a single season in the last 55 years, behind only Peyton Manning's insane 2004 season.

I think Watson is a good QB, he's certainly proved that much at least (although I really don't like using such a small sample size, but he's looked good from what I've seen) but I doubt this is his average every year, especially given how many TDs vs. receptions some of his receivers have *cough* lookin at you Fuller *cough*. I've already gone on record saying I don't give a bleep who the #1 QB is in this thread but I do think Watson is a QB1, at least from what we've seen so far. However, memories are short and the NFL moves quickly, he could just as easily be the QB20 next year with a ton of "Worried thread: Watson edition" posts on the site.
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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:18 pm

Watson has looked way better than I expected, but it's too soon to say. His value is clearly going to go up big, but NFL careers aren't necessarily made after a few good games.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby jimmychoi » Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:29 pm

I guess I’m confused. Are a whole bunch of you saying he will no longer be successful because defense will adjust, and he will then, in turn, be unable to adjust and progress? I don’t think he’s the number one, but I like his talent.

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:15 pm

Phaded wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:49 pm
dm1129 wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:43 pm
Everyone needs to remember what Nick Foles did in Chip Kelly's offense before defenses adjusted........
Chip Kelly had a vanilla college-style offense that was based on tempo and tiring out the D.

Watson is running a legit NFL offense. Some play action involved but it is nothing new.

I agree with the premise that teams will adjust - but comparing this offense or any offense to what Kelly did is not a good point. There is good reason Chip Kelly is gone.

And Nick Foles never looked like a stud.
Agreed. What Houston is doing isn't anything like Chip's offense or the Shanahan's dumbing down their offense to exclusively run RPO with RG3. One of the knocks on Watson was that he would struggle running an NFL offense right away and, well...he isn't exactly struggling. Bill O'Brien was the OC for a team that went to the Super Bowl...

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Re: Dare we consider Deshaun Watson...

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:23 pm

jimmychoi wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:29 pm
I guess I’m confused. Are a whole bunch of you saying he will no longer be successful because defense will adjust, and he will then, in turn, be unable to adjust and progress? I don’t think he’s the number one, but I like his talent.
Watson has a 9.3 TD% in 7 games. Just for context, only two QB's have ever finished a season with a TD% of 9 or better with at least 200 pass attempts:

Peyton Manning - 2004 (49 touchdowns)
Ken Stabler - 1976 (27 touchdowns)

So, the question is what happens when Watson inevitably regresses and defenses start to figure this out? It's not to say that Watson can't adjust himself, but right now we're seeing a ridiculously unsustainable stretch of games. Watson is on pace for 43 passing touchdowns....as a rookie. His value should definitely increase, especially in Superflex where he's probably worth a king's ransom. But, we should wait before crowning him QB1. Houston's offense isn't gimmicky, but I don't think we're going to see Will Fuller making half of his catches touchdowns going forward.


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