Why not D'Andre Swift?

[gogobradyarm]

I am a new believer in Swift and owner, so take this with a grain of salt.

Swift is in for a massive season. I don't guarantee he will be the RB1 overall, but I do believe he will break into the top 3. It doesn't matter if he is splitting carries with Jamaal Williams, most RB are sharing backfields, but they're not on pace for 100 catches! Historically, few RB are ever on that pace. I know extrapolation isn't always accurate, but i'm going to do it here.

Swift is on pace for ~170 carries
Swift is on pace for ~100 catches.

The closest season to that recently would put him on the Austin Ekeler trajectory, and he was the RB3 in PPR in 2019.
If he gets a slight uptick in carries and hits ~200 carries, he could close in on Christian McCaffrey's 2018 where he was the RB1 in PPR.

The coach did say we will see more of Swift, and we do know that they were easing him into this season given his groin injury in the off-season. If it trends towards 200 carries and 100 catches, the likeliness of him being the RB1 are very good, and he will hit 375-400 fantasy points. Don't forget, this team is going to be playing from behind, has a great offensive line, and check down king in Goff. Diamond hands boys.

[timeEd32]

He hit RB3 on KTC today (behind CMC and Kamara). There has been a huge shift in public perception this week.

[gogobradyarm]

He hit RB3 on KTC today (behind CMC and Kamara). There has been a huge shift in public perception this week.

Never seen that website until you mentioned it. It's basically dynasty rankings with recency bias on steroids. While i'm pro Swift, that website scares me lol.

[timeEd32]

He hit RB3 on KTC today (behind CMC and Kamara). There has been a huge shift in public perception this week.

Never seen that website until you mentioned it. It's basically dynasty rankings with recency bias on steroids. While i'm pro Swift, that website scares me lol.

Ha, yes. It is definitely irrational at times, especially during the season. Over indexes on age for sure.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

He hit RB3 on KTC today (behind CMC and Kamara). There has been a huge shift in public perception this week.

Never seen that website until you mentioned it. It's basically dynasty rankings with recency bias on steroids. While i'm pro Swift, that website scares me lol.

It's like crowdsourced rankings. It's a cool idea, but yeah it's a snapshot of current hype, and should be taken with a massive grain of salt.
In this case I agree with the ktc results. If I am rebuilding, there is not a single RB I would trade Swift straight up for. If in win now, there are only a few.

[FantasyFreak]

Escaped a disaster today with a few late catches, for 4 on the day. The clear 1B on the ground. In standard scoring, his value would be a ton less. Those receptions provide a nice floor, but in this offense, I still feel his ceiling is capped a bit. Still think he can put up a top 8 season, though.

[Cameron Giles]

Just boggles my mind that they don't immediately begin their game script with getting him involved heavily.

[FantasyFreak]

Just boggles my mind that they don't immediately begin their game script with getting him involved heavily.

It probably won't change, either. Williams is the better runner right now, but why is Swift only catching 1 pass until late in the 4th?

[mild]

Just boggles my mind that they don't immediately begin their game script with getting him involved heavily.

It probably won't change, either. Williams is the better runner right now, but why is Swift only catching 1 pass until late in the 4th?

This is a #DanCampbell tweet.

[lukkynumber13]

I'm not trying to be a troll but today is a good reminder not to base TOO MUCH of our appraisals of a player's value on situation. Comments such as "they'll be playing from behind a ton so that's great for him since he'll be catching lots of passes" or "they don't have any other weapons other than Hock, so that means he will be a stud every week" are only looking at one side of the equation.

[Mike11]

I don't think they let Swift get in a running rhythm like they do with JWill. Swift very rarely gets back to back carries (as indicated by his 8 attempts) and when he does it's sometimes on short down plays where he get's the first but his ypc doesn't look as good as it can if you boxscore hunt. I think he's still a talented runner but banging Swift up the middle isn't the best way to use him. The team has a great o-line but doesn't utilize stretch runs when I watch which would probably be a better use of Swift as a runner. Either way 8 carries is unacceptable, I'd like to see at least 13-15 with 5-6 targets (not necessarily receptions).

[Cameron Giles]

I don't think they let Swift get in a running rhythm like they do with JWill. Swift very rarely gets back to back carries (as indicated by his 8 attempts) and when he does it's sometimes on short down plays where he get's the first but his ypc doesn't look as good as it can if you boxscore hunt. I think he's still a talented runner but banging Swift up the middle isn't the best way to use him. The team has a great o-line but doesn't utilize stretch runs when I watch which would probably be a better use of Swift as a runner. Either way 8 carries is unacceptable, I'd like to see at least 13-15 with 5-6 targets (not necessarily receptions).

I agree with you on the run style. It feels in that area, they aren't maximizing the style that he needs to get going; but, the run game isn't even my biggest beef. It's just simply the fact that they do not prioritize their best playmaker in their scripted plays. It's just strange that it takes so long for him to get targets early in the game. They only start doing it when they are out of it.

Williams is adequate at what he does, but he's not a playmaker or even a very good early down back. Getting him going and letting him do his best Chris Ivory impression doesn't really do much for your offense. He'll grind out some yards, but it's just very low risk, low ceiling. Swift has been one of the best receiving backs in the league since he entered. He had the 2nd best receiving grade among RBs entering this game.

It's just very confusing. With their lack of weapons and the fact that they are always trailing, Swift should be way more involved. People will see the 14 touches with 6 targets and think that's weird, but it's about when they are coming

[Mike11]

What makes it worse is Campbell said Swift earned more playing time and was likely going to start, then we saw JWill for 75% of the first quarter. Like... what's going on here? I don't mind them using JWill I think he's fine but the upside of him is minimal. I think Campbell will use him more but Anthony Lynn seems a bit infatuated with JWill too. One positive for Swift is I see him consistently coming in around the goal line which isn't being talked about a ton but should lead to good things.

[dynastyninja]

The times they are a changin'. We've talked about it for years, but it seems to really be materializing recently. Feels like every team in the league has a full-blown committee at RB. It's what makes the Henry/CMC/Cook's of the world so valuable. 20 touches for them is light, whereas it's be a great week for most guys.

Even CMC and Cook are starting to show the wear from crazy workloads in previous years. The outlier is Derrick Henry, who really is unique. Not only can he handle 30+ carries, he gets better in games as he approaches 30+ carries.

Swift (the fantasy asset) is just another casualty, though he'll probably last longer in the NFL because of it. It kills me as a Chubb owner. He averages 5+ ypc and Cleveland (smartly) insists on splitting time with him and Hunt. It's smart football, but it's a killer for fantasy teams.

[Mike11]

The times they are a changin'. We've talked about it for years, but it seems to really be materializing recently. Feels like every team in the league has a full-blown committee at RB. It's what makes the Henry/CMC/Cook's of the world so valuable. 20 touches for them is light, whereas it's be a great week for most guys.

Even CMC and Cook are starting to show the wear from crazy workloads in previous years. The outlier is Derrick Henry, who really is unique. Not only can he handle 30+ carries, he gets better in games as he approaches 30+ carries.

Swift (the fantasy asset) is just another casualty, though he'll probably last longer in the NFL because of it. It kills me as a Chubb owner. He averages 5+ ypc and Cleveland (smartly) insists on splitting time with him and Hunt. It's smart football, but it's a killer for fantasy teams.

True, at the same time Swift is RB6 on the year so it’s not like people are unhappy. His quiet games have still been solid from a floor perspective that helps. I’m curious to see if this exact breakdown continues all year if both are healthy.