Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

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maxhyde
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby maxhyde » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:03 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:24 am

I want guys who can start right away, week 1. I believe there are 6 guys out there capable of that. Why is this far-fetched?

Dynasty is looking for a long term projection not selling after they pop a couple of weeks. So while I agree that is a strategy (and one I use at times) you still sort of have to be able to project if that is their max potential (or value) or if this is simply the first window. Anyway, the point is that doesn't answer the question most dynasty players need answers to, as guys are more patient with rookies. I mean Derrick Henry was a bust, a bigger BUST and then exploded to end up the rushing leader...is he a bust or not. I mean he had no sell window for 2 1/2 seasons nearly, before breaking out to close year 3.

I mean if I bought Amazon at $25 and sold at $100 I for sure won but did I really?
DLF HOF League 16 team PPR
QB: Brees, Bradford, Lock(3.07)
RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
TE: Gronk, Swaim, Maxx Williams

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby nathanq42 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:26 am

sounds to me like the bet should be if Taylor is a top 6 rookie or not eh? I cant imagine he would fall top 7th or worse barring injury compared to the rest of the rookies. I can see guys like Dobbins, Swift, Lamb, and maybe Ruggs out perform him in their first years, but thats about it imo, and even then I wouldnt be betting against Taylor
12 Team 1 ppr .2 points per carry
Garbage
QB Gardner Minshew, Ryan Tannehill
RB CEH, Josh Jacobs, JK Dobbins, D'Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon
WR Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Junior, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, Preston Williams, Bryan Edwards, James Washington, Van Jefferson
TE TJ Hockenson, Darren Waller
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby maxhyde » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:29 am

Maybe but if you draft him 1.01 or 1.02 you really planning on flipping him that year or offseason anyway?
DLF HOF League 16 team PPR
QB: Brees, Bradford, Lock(3.07)
RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
TE: Gronk, Swaim, Maxx Williams

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:31 am

Based on what I've seen in other places, these are players who others have listed above taylor:

Swift, Dobbins, Akers, Lamb, Jeudy, Reagor, CEH, Moss.

So, IMO, taking the stance that Taylor is 6th best rookie with a chance to move to 3 is certainly in the minority, but not absurd.
12 team PPR, 1QB, No negative points, all TDs 6
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham, Hurts, Winston
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor, Dobbins
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Higgins, S Miller, Proche
TE: Engram, Hockenson, Arnold, Trautman
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 3, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR 1QB
QB: Brady, Darnold, Bridgewater, Lock (TS), Stidham (TS)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Edmonds, Taylor, Dobbins (TS)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, G. Tate, Guyton, P. Williams (TS), JJAW (TS), Isabella (TS), S. Miller (TS), Higgins (TS)
TE: Jarwin, I Smith, Arnold, Trautman (TS)
K: Succop
DEF: Streaming
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 3, 2021 3, All 2022 picks

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby nathanq42 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:41 am

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:31 am
Based on what I've seen in other places, these are players who others have listed above taylor:

Swift, Dobbins, Akers, Lamb, Jeudy, Reagor, CEH, Moss.

So, IMO, taking the stance that Taylor is 6th best rookie with a chance to move to 3 is certainly in the minority, but not absurd.
100% I could see that, some guys have the WRs top 2 (Jeudy and Lamb) and some have Reagor in the top two WRs, so if Taylor is RB 3, that puts him at rookie #6. But we all know RBs are much quicker to produce in the NFL, so to say that 6 rookies will out produce Taylor immediately (to me) is an easy bet for the pro-Taylor side. And putting Taylor at RB4/5 in this class takes him to #8 overall. But again, that just screams way too late for me. The way I look at it is that 226 running 4.39, any brain dead coach can run that train our of the I every play and he would still be a game breaker. Run jumbo packages and pull guards + a FB for Taylor to run behind? All it takes is for him to get to the second level and he is gone, plus he is built to last late into games. I think all 3 top backs are neck and neck, and landing spot + draft capital will determine their rankings
12 Team 1 ppr .2 points per carry
Garbage
QB Gardner Minshew, Ryan Tannehill
RB CEH, Josh Jacobs, JK Dobbins, D'Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon
WR Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Junior, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, Preston Williams, Bryan Edwards, James Washington, Van Jefferson
TE TJ Hockenson, Darren Waller
+1 Flex

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby dlf_mikeh » Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:06 pm

maxhyde wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:03 am
Dynasty is looking for a long term projection not selling after they pop a couple of weeks. So while I agree that is a strategy (and one I use at times) you still sort of have to be able to project if that is their max potential (or value) or if this is simply the first window. Anyway, the point is that doesn't answer the question most dynasty players need answers to, as guys are more patient with rookies. I mean Derrick Henry was a bust, a bigger BUST and then exploded to end up the rushing leader...is he a bust or not. I mean he had no sell window for 2 1/2 seasons nearly, before breaking out to close year 3.

I mean if I bought Amazon at $25 and sold at $100 I for sure won but did I really?
This is one of the best replies I've read in a while.

Who are the best RBs to ever grace the Earth? Think about it and make a list of 5-10 names. Are you thinking about it? Think about it. Now name one player from your list that didn't start year one. Also, the lifespan of a RB is short. I don't want 2-3 years of his career wasting away on my bench while I wait for him to learn the game.

I've said before that I think JTs ceiling is higher than everyone else's. I also think his floor is lower than the other top guys. Your Derrick Henry comment is exactly the same thing I said in my article. If you drafted him with the 1.01 pick in the 2016 draft, are you happy with that selection? You'd have to sit through nearly 3 years of terrible performance before he was usable. That's not what I'm looking for in a RB and that's why I'm avoiding Taylor.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:21 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:38 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:26 am
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:24 am

I want guys who can start right away, week 1. I believe there are 6 guys out there capable of that. Why is this far-fetched?
Who are they?
That's a new topic. I'm writing the article now. I'll have it out before the draft. JT could become 3rd on my list you know, based on landing spot. I said that earlier. Right now he's outside my top 6.

I still don't see what's wrong about wanting players capable of starting day 1. Also WRs are far more valuable than project RBs (which is where I put JT).
If wanting players who are capable of starting day 1 is your top priority, then WRs are not "far more valuable". RBs the majority of the time come right out of the gate at or near peak value and performance, whereas WRs typically take a few years to reach that. Add that on to the fact of the unique circumstances of this year, and the likely reduction of offseason/preseason preparation due to Coronavirus, and the RBs will like have an even bigger immediate advantage over the WRs this year. Taylor or any of the other top RBs in this class are far more likely to finish as a top 10-15 scorer at their position than any WR in the class is, and since that immediate value is what you say is what you are looking for then the RBs should be ranked higher than the WRs.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby dustyroads » Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:30 pm

Wow... what a train wreck. Started out semi decent, and I'm trying very hard to stay focused on the initial point made, but it's near impossible. JT being over-hyped and some tape evaluation pointing out why seemed reasonable to me. But it was like when a politician makes a semi-intelligible statement you can give some merit to; but then follows it up with a bunch of outlandish and asinine statements which are proven wrong and then they can't even admit they're wrong, instead doubling down on said outlandish and asinine statements... hard to see the forest for the trees at that point. A shame because I kept hearing such great things about Mike's RB write-ups. I'll still definitely read, especially in this current sports drought we are suffering through, but will be very hard to take seriously after digesting this entire thread.

Just to be clear, because so many statements were made and changed several times over the course of this thread, what I gathered was that "Dobbins & Swift are my 1.01 and 1.02 picks. JT is probably 1.08 or so imo. To me, that's a pretty big gap." and "I believe Dobbins and Swift are sure-thing RBs. They are 1A and 1B, however you'd like to rank them. I think -- by default -- JT is the next man up." Taking these points and your stance that the emphasis for you here is first year success "I want guys who can start right away, week 1." You think that Dobbins, Swift, and 5 other yet to be named WRs will all score more than JT in 2020? This is semi-plausible to me seeing as the WRs aren't named, so really more of a field bet at this point, but you seem to have five specific WRs in mind by ranking JT 1.08 overall predraft.

Anyone making a bet, this seems to be the "simple" one Mike laid out. Emphasizing first year success and ranking JT as 1.08 overall (3rd among RBs), Mike is claiming Swift, Dobbins, and 5 specific WRs I'm hoping he will name soon, will all score more than JT this season. Seems like a bet I would be jumping at the chance to take myself...

I haven't even read the "Peer Review..." thread yet, but man... this is some headache inducing/politician-style debate raging. I think a wet bar of soap would be easy to grasp than some of these stances. Less planting a flag in the ground, then planting a flag in a stock car mid lap during the Daytona 500.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby dlf_mikeh » Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:47 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:21 pm
If wanting players who are capable of starting day 1 is your top priority, then WRs are not "far more valuable". RBs the majority of the time come right out of the gate at or near peak value and performance, whereas WRs typically take a few years to reach that.
I'm in PPR leagues so my mindset is that WR is more valuable. I want players who can start day 1, yes. I don't believe JT can. I believe there are several other players in other positions who will. I agree that WRs take longer to reach peak value, but I believe the WRs I covet will do better than JT in 2020. JT's ceiling is higher, but I want the sure thing when I pick early in a draft.
bjd5211 wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:21 pm
Add that on to the fact of the unique circumstances of this year, and the likely reduction of offseason/preseason preparation due to Coronavirus, and the RBs will like have an even bigger immediate advantage over the WRs this year. Taylor or any of the other top RBs in this class are far more likely to finish as a top 10-15 scorer at their position than any WR in the class is, and since that immediate value is what you say is what you are looking for then the RBs should be ranked higher than the WRs.
Whoa. I hadn't considered this. Bravo! :clap:
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Hottoddies » Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:49 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:21 am
In any case, nobody should be paying for DLF Premium. They’ll literally hire anybody, despite having zero exerptise, as long as they can generate “content.” You’re paying for stuff that’s worse than what you get for free on the forum. If you need to pay somebody for this guy’s opinion in order to enjoy dynasty football, I sincerely suggest that you just quit and find a different hobby.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:57 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:47 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:21 pm
If wanting players who are capable of starting day 1 is your top priority, then WRs are not "far more valuable". RBs the majority of the time come right out of the gate at or near peak value and performance, whereas WRs typically take a few years to reach that.
I'm in PPR leagues so my mindset is that WR is more valuable. I want players who can start day 1, yes. I don't believe JT can. I believe there are several other players in other positions who will. I agree that WRs take longer to reach peak value, but I believe the WRs I covet will do better than JT in 2020. JT's ceiling is higher, but I want the sure thing when I pick early in a draft.
bjd5211 wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:21 pm
Add that on to the fact of the unique circumstances of this year, and the likely reduction of offseason/preseason preparation due to Coronavirus, and the RBs will like have an even bigger immediate advantage over the WRs this year. Taylor or any of the other top RBs in this class are far more likely to finish as a top 10-15 scorer at their position than any WR in the class is, and since that immediate value is what you say is what you are looking for then the RBs should be ranked higher than the WRs.
Whoa. I hadn't considered this. Bravo! :clap:
All my leagues are minimum .5 PPR also, but I don't find it elevates WRs above RBs, especially in rookie drafts. In a rookie draft I will always take a RB over a WR who I rank equally, they just bring in more immediate value, whether that's in the box score or as trade assets.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby dlf_mikeh » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:10 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:57 pm
All my leagues are minimum .5 PPR also, but I don't find it elevates WRs above RBs, especially in rookie drafts. In a rookie draft I will always take a RB over a WR who I rank equally, they just bring in more immediate value, whether that's in the box score or as trade assets.
Good RBs can be found in many places but top WRs are almost always early 1st round picks. Looking at the top 15 PPR WRs last year in a PPG basis, only Edelman, Godwin, and DJ Chark weren't 1st round picks. Meanwhile I picked up guys like Ekeler, Jones, and Carson off the waiver wire.

I'll take a sure-fire RB when I can because they can start right away and put up big numbers immediately, but I almost always jump to WR after my sure-thing RBs are taken because I want a chance to crack into that top 15 and history shows a 1st rounder is the way to go. Maybe it's an old way of thinking because I've been playing fantasy for 20 years and I need to reevaluate? But it's worked for me after all this time... I'll just sit on that thought for a while.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:17 pm

And focusing on RB and waiting on WR has always worked for me. All of my great teams have been RB dominant with solid WR play, meanwhile all my teams with exceptional WRs and average RBs seem to underperform. RB is also always easier to trade than any other position in my experience, and WR is just a much deeper position and there tends to be more quality contributors at that position than starting spots league-wide.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:20 pm

Hottoddies wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:49 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:21 am
In any case, nobody should be paying for DLF Premium. They’ll literally hire anybody, despite having zero exerptise, as long as they can generate “content.” You’re paying for stuff that’s worse than what you get for free on the forum. If you need to pay somebody for this guy’s opinion in order to enjoy dynasty football, I sincerely suggest that you just quit and find a different hobby.
One of the things a DLF Premium does is it allows people like me to help pay for a forum to give people like you a platform to speak from.
So you're saying he's ironically correct? Lol
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones, Eason
RB: JT, Dillon, Gaskin, Mostert, Gus, Mattison, McFarland, Snell, Wilson, McKissic, Darrel
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston, Parris
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.10, 2, 3, 4, 5.08, 5.10, 6, 7, 9, 10

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Ryan, Minshew, Mariota, Trub
RB: Saquon, Dobbins, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, Snell
WR: AJB, DJM, Chark, C. Davis, C. Samuel, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, G. Davis, Mooney, Lazard, J. Washington
TE: Andrews, Henry, Irv, Gesicki, Tonyan
2021: 1.03, 2.05, 2.09, 3.05, 3.09
2022: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:07 pm

Jigga94 wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:20 pm
Hottoddies wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:49 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:21 am
In any case, nobody should be paying for DLF Premium. They’ll literally hire anybody, despite having zero exerptise, as long as they can generate “content.” You’re paying for stuff that’s worse than what you get for free on the forum. If you need to pay somebody for this guy’s opinion in order to enjoy dynasty football, I sincerely suggest that you just quit and find a different hobby.
One of the things a DLF Premium does is it allows people like me to help pay for a forum to give people like you a platform to speak from.
So you're saying he's ironically correct? Lol
You win the forum today
12 team PPR, 1QB, No negative points, all TDs 6
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham, Hurts, Winston
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor, Dobbins
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Higgins, S Miller, Proche
TE: Engram, Hockenson, Arnold, Trautman
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 3, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR 1QB
QB: Brady, Darnold, Bridgewater, Lock (TS), Stidham (TS)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Edmonds, Taylor, Dobbins (TS)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, G. Tate, Guyton, P. Williams (TS), JJAW (TS), Isabella (TS), S. Miller (TS), Higgins (TS)
TE: Jarwin, I Smith, Arnold, Trautman (TS)
K: Succop
DEF: Streaming
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 3, 2021 3, All 2022 picks


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