Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

[Cult of Dionysus]

For what it's worth, I think it's clear to see that JT doesn't "sink his hips" or make hard cuts/jukes. It's just not in his repertoire. I suspect if he goes to the right team/system, where the holes will be where he expects them to be, he will rumble to 1200 plus ground yards in 2020. If he has to deal with NFL defenders in the backfield or if the Oline can't make any daylight, JT will have a very rough rookie season. However, the same can't be said of all but the most slippery runners.

[Sriracha]

I want guys who can start right away, week 1. I believe there are 6 guys out there capable of that. Why is this far-fetched?

Who are they?

That's a new topic. I'm writing the article now. I'll have it out before the draft. JT could become 3rd on my list you know, based on landing spot. I said that earlier. Right now he's outside my top 6.

I still don't see what's wrong about wanting players capable of starting day 1. Also WRs are far more valuable than project RBs (which is where I put JT).

Project RB is a very strong diagnosis for the RB with the most rushing yards in NCAAF history through 3 years.

There's definitely aspects of his game that he could improve upon... but he's far from a simple project at this point his career. When I hear project RB... that's Miles Sanders last season, and Antonio Gibson this season. JT has been a 3 year starter and a prolific producer since the moment he stepped on the field.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Yeah, but he doesn't sink his hips.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Yeah, but he doesn't sink his hips.

[Sriracha]

Good RBs can be found in many places but top WRs are almost always early 1st round picks. Looking at the top 15 PPR WRs last year in a PPG basis, only Edelman, Godwin, and DJ Chark weren't 1st round picks. Meanwhile I picked up guys like Ekeler, Jones, and Carson off the waiver wire.

I'll take a sure-fire RB when I can because they can start right away and put up big numbers immediately, but I almost always jump to WR after my sure-thing RBs are taken because I want a chance to crack into that top 15 and history shows a 1st rounder is the way to go. Maybe it's an old way of thinking because I've been playing fantasy for 20 years and I need to reevaluate? But it's worked for me after all this time... I'll just sit on that thought for a while.

Tyreek Hill, Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin, Dj Chark, Julian Edelman, Adam Thielen, Tyler Boyd, Tyler Lockett, are all 3rd round picks + off the top of my head.

Theres plenty of talent to be found outside of round 1 at WR, even moreso because people havent adapted to the prevalence of elite slot WRs being just as valuable in fantasy as the traditional big X

[RB6]

Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson. These 3 all finished last year top 15 in PPG. Not drafted in the first round. Along with a couple others mentioned

[bjd5211]

Whereas most of the top RBs of the last several years (Gurley, Zeke, Barkley, CMC, Chubb, Jacobs, Cook, Mixon, Gordon) have all required early 1's if not 1st overall, and very few elite RBs have been later picks in rookie drafts (David Johnson and Aaron Jones only ones that come to mind right now, but there are probably a few others).

[Hottoddies]

Whereas most of the top RBs of the last several years (Gurley, Zeke, Barkley, CMC, Chubb, Jacobs, Cook, Mixon, Gordon) have all required early 1's if not 1st overall, and very few elite RBs have been later picks in rookie drafts (David Johnson and Aaron Jones only ones that come to mind right now, but there are probably a few others).

Don't forget about Kamara. But otherwise you do normally have to use an early pick to get a stud RB.

[bjd5211]

Whereas most of the top RBs of the last several years (Gurley, Zeke, Barkley, CMC, Chubb, Jacobs, Cook, Mixon, Gordon) have all required early 1's if not 1st overall, and very few elite RBs have been later picks in rookie drafts (David Johnson and Aaron Jones only ones that come to mind right now, but there are probably a few others).

Don't forget about Kamara. But otherwise you do normally have to use an early pick to get a stud RB.

Kamara (and Hunt) was going early to mid 1st, at least in all of my drafts, so I wouldn't consider him a later pick, but not quite a high 1st like the other guys I listed.

Edit: That's probably more due to the fact that it was an extremely strong RB class that year, plus Corey Davis was pretty heavily considered a top 3-5 pick himself. Kamara probably would have gone a bit higher most years in a draft that wasn't so deep.

[Hottoddies]

For what it's worth, I think it's clear to see that JT doesn't "sink his hips" or make hard cuts/jukes. It's just not in his repertoire. I suspect if he goes to the right team/system, where the holes will be where he expects them to be, he will rumble to 1200 plus ground yards in 2020. If he has to deal with NFL defenders in the backfield or if the Oline can't make any daylight, JT will have a very rough rookie season. However, the same can't be said of all but the most slippery runners.

Great post. We have to remember that football is a team sport. RBs don't succeed in a vacuum. Actually, I think that RBs are probably the most team dependent position there is. The difference between Gurley's 2nd and 3rd year is a clear example of this point. Landing spots for the rookies this year will be a big factor in how they will fare.

Now as for Taylor; I think he'll probably be a high volume early down thumper with a good chance to be an effective goal line runner which should give you a fairly safe floor. And with his long speed, he should be able to take it to the house from time to time which will also be a nice ceiling. I'm not too worried about his heavy college work load and hopefully he'll be able to fix his fumbling issues. The only real draw back is that his coach may not trust him in passing situations and replace him with a 3rd down back which would reduce his PPR appeal. But this too is something that he could pick up on in time. I don't think he's really that overrated, he's just not my top choice at the moment.

[ajmyk]

Hi Mike ! Love your takes, always entertaining.

Not sure if this was brought up, but if I understand your criticism of JT , it is that he's basically Founette.
Fournette did well in year 1.

What's the difference ?

[MEuRaH]

Hi Mike ! Love your takes, always entertaining.

Not sure if this was brought up, but if I understand your criticism of JT , it is that he's basically Founette.
Fournette did well in year 1.

What's the difference ?

Fournette has tape showing some skillsets needed, JT does not. I loved Fournette for what he possessed and then came away disappointed his rookie year. The numbers were fine but I really thought he could have done better. That taught me to not fall in love with the great and to critique the bad. Fournette is lucky to have fallen into a system that played into his strengths. If JT does as well, he might be my new #1, but the other two guys Dobbins & Swift could go anywhere and succeed. I'd rather take a chance with that atm.

[ajmyk]

Thanks

[Bronco Billy]

A couple of items that some here may not know about Taylor’s success last year:

After the 2018 season Wisconsin lost 4 starting linemen. 2 of them were 4 year starters and 2 of them were 3 year starters. The only holdover was Biadasz at center - and yes, he was one of the top centers in college football. So Taylor was running behind a line that was working to gain experience and gel throughout the season last year, yet he didn’t miss a beat and managed to turn in his typical awesome season.

The other item is about another guy - RB Garret Groshek. Groshek was a high school QB and switched to RB at Wisconsin. Last year he substituted in on some goal line plays as well as 3rd and medium/long plays (which were limited more than other teams thanks to Taylor’s success rate on 1st/2nd downs). Groshek averaged 5.33 ypc and rushed for 5 TDs himself, as well as catching out of the backfield and playing QB in the wildcat. He was a very versatile and capable weapon in the situations he was inserted in. I find it odd that some of the experts who carp about Taylor’s workload in college in the same evaluation then carp about him coming out on some third downs. Well, which way do you want it? Groshek was capable enough that he was able to give Taylor a break on those plays, which optimized Taylor’s usage and kept him fresher. Seriously, who else was anywhere near as good as Taylor in any other situations? It only made sense that he would get some rest on those downs when Groshek was good enough and situationally flexible to provide a breather for him.

As for pass protection, yeah he wasn’t called on to perform a whole lot of it, but there were times when he stoned uncovered pass rushers from the outside, or picked the correct inside assignment to help when the O-line missed.

I’m not quite sure what people expected from him last year that he didn’t do exceptionally. On top on that, he was a great teammate and (literally) a rocket scientist in school. Double major in astronomy and physics.

[djeternal2]

A couple of items that some here may not know about Taylor’s success last year:

After the 2018 season Wisconsin lost 4 starting linemen. 2 of them were 4 year starters and 2 of them were 3 year starters. The only holdover was Biadasz at center - and yes, he was one of the top centers in college football. So Taylor was running behind a line that was working to gain experience and gel throughout the season last year, yet he didn’t miss a beat and managed to turn in his typical awesome season.

The other item is about another guy - RB Garret Groshek. Groshek was a high school QB and switched to RB at Wisconsin. Last year he substituted in on some goal line plays as well as 3rd and medium/long plays (which were limited more than other teams thanks to Taylor’s success rate on 1st/2nd downs). Groshek averaged 5.33 ypc and rushed for 5 TDs himself, as well as catching out of the backfield and playing QB in the wildcat. He was a very versatile and capable weapon in the situations he was inserted in. I find it odd that some of the experts who carp about Taylor’s workload in college in the same evaluation then carp about him coming out on some third downs. Well, which way do you want it? Groshek was capable enough that he was able to give Taylor a break on those plays, which optimized Taylor’s usage and kept him fresher. Seriously, who else was anywhere near as good as Taylor in any other situations? It only made sense that he would get some rest on those downs when Groshek was good enough and situationally flexible to provide a breather for him.

As for pass protection, yeah he wasn’t called on to perform a whole lot of it, but there were times when he stoned uncovered pass rushers from the outside, or picked the correct inside assignment to help when the O-line missed.

I’m not quite sure what people expected from him last year that he didn’t do exceptionally. On top on that, he was a great teammate and (literally) a rocket scientist in school. Double major in astronomy and physics.

Didn't you hear? He has no skills as a RB and has 900+ carries so his legs may fall off any minute now. I've taken him completely off my boards.