Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

[Krypto_King]

ok, but you don't have hesitation about 26y/o Kamara without Brees, Barkley coming off 2 semi-lost years and stagnating offense, Henry's age difference and usage, Cook's injury history? Taylor is likely the most insulated though not as high a ceiling

What about Kamara has you concerned so far? his low usage but high output?

He is projected to lose his HOF QB and in 4 games with the projected replacement he paced for 64 targets and 204 receiving yards. Combine that he just hit his career high in rushing yards at 932 and again, is entering age 26 season. If I was giving advice I'd probably say take him over JT but not sure I'd actually do it in practice. Maybe I'm being too cautious though

[AussieMate]

ok, but you don't have hesitation about 26y/o Kamara without Brees, Barkley coming off 2 semi-lost years and stagnating offense, Henry's age difference and usage, Cook's injury history? Taylor is likely the most insulated though not as high a ceiling

What about Kamara has you concerned so far? his low usage but high output?

He is projected to lose his HOF QB and in 4 games with the projected replacement he paced for 64 targets and 204 receiving yards. Combine that he just hit his career high in rushing yards at 932 and again, is entering age 26 season. If I was giving advice I'd probably say take him over JT but not sure I'd actually do it in practice. Maybe I'm being too cautious though

Yeah I get the QB worry, I have faith that with a proper offseason with whoever the new QB is will bring about better results then the 4 games sample size. Taysom being that guy would make me hesitate slightly but I'm not that concerned, Kamara just gets it done.

[Sriracha]

What about Kamara has you concerned so far? his low usage but high output?

He is projected to lose his HOF QB and in 4 games with the projected replacement he paced for 64 targets and 204 receiving yards. Combine that he just hit his career high in rushing yards at 932 and again, is entering age 26 season. If I was giving advice I'd probably say take him over JT but not sure I'd actually do it in practice. Maybe I'm being too cautious though

Yeah I get the QB worry, I have faith that with a proper offseason with whoever the new QB is will bring about better results then the 4 games sample size. Taysom being that guy would make me hesitate slightly but I'm not that concerned, Kamara just gets it done.

Drew Brees is one of the best screen game QBs of all time... if he's retiring I'd be very concerned with Kamara's target share moving forward.

[mgscott]

Are you saying the odds are against you for any RB, because they all eventually drop off, or are you saying you're playing the odds against RB's that have higher carries? I haven't ever seen real data or stats that truly show RB's struggle due to high carries more than the average RB after an average year.

I am saying I know the odds are longer for high usage backs having long careers. If you haven't ever seen stats that truly show all these things you have never looked for it. Believe whatever ya want I will stay with my conservative estimates.

I've never seen anything to support that, but go with whatever you want chief. I guess I don't research enough.

[Ice]

After yet another horrible receiving game when rushing 18 plus times; 4 targets 2 catches 6 yards, thinking he is a top 3 Dynasty pick is an extremely risky position in ppr leagues.

He looks like a legit high carry back with low receiving potential.

Top 3....REALLY ?

[CGW]

After yet another horrible receiving game when rushing 18 plus times; 4 targets 2 catches 6 yards, thinking he is a top 3 Dynasty pick is an extremely risky position in ppr leagues.

He looks like a legit high carry back with low receiving potential.

Top 3....REALLY ?

Top 3 might be a bit high...but how many below him aren't risky or offer his upside? Ranking players is a losing proposition just like mock drafts. Production never matches rankings. I tend to put players into tiers, and JT fits into the tier just after CMC and Kamara. 3rd, 5th, 10th...who cares?

Sorry CEH dropped as far as he did, but doesn't mean it's crazy to like JT.

[cantguardjake]

After yet another horrible receiving game when rushing 18 plus times; 4 targets 2 catches 6 yards, thinking he is a top 3 Dynasty pick is an extremely risky position in ppr leagues.

He looks like a legit high carry back with low receiving potential.

Top 3....REALLY ?

He had 36 receptions for 300 yards at 8.31 ypc (one of the highest, if not highest marks in the league for a RB) through 14 games.

He might not catch 60 balls a year but I’d say he’s a fairly decent bet to be a 30-50 reception guy, he’s hardly Derrick Henry in the receiving game.

[murphysxm]

After yet another horrible receiving game when rushing 18 plus times; 4 targets 2 catches 6 yards, thinking he is a top 3 Dynasty pick is an extremely risky position in ppr leagues.

He looks like a legit high carry back with low receiving potential.

Top 3....REALLY ?

He had 36 receptions for 300 yards at 8.31 ypc (one of the highest, if not highest marks in the league for a RB) through 14 games.

He might not catch 60 balls a year but I’d say he’s a fairly decent bet to be a 30-50 reception guy, he’s hardly Derrick Henry in the receiving game.

As long as Himes is in town, his ceiling is capped in the passng game, but I don't think it because he can't. Himes is just excellent at it

[jenkins.math]

After yet another horrible receiving game when rushing 18 plus times; 4 targets 2 catches 6 yards, thinking he is a top 3 Dynasty pick is an extremely risky position in ppr leagues.

He looks like a legit high carry back with low receiving potential.

Top 3....REALLY ?

He had 36 receptions for 300 yards at 8.31 ypc (one of the highest, if not highest marks in the league for a RB) through 14 games.

He might not catch 60 balls a year but I’d say he’s a fairly decent bet to be a 30-50 reception guy, he’s hardly Derrick Henry in the receiving game.

As long as Himes is in town, his ceiling is capped in the passng game, but I don't think it because he can't. Himes is just excellent at it

Rivers is also a major boost to RBs catching passes.

[Hottoddies]

Just for the heck of it I decided to see how Taylor and CEH fared against common opponents.

______Games___ATT___YDS___YPC___REC____YDS___TD___Fantasy Pts.
Taylor__6_______89_____488____5.5_____14_______77_____7______112.5
CEH____6______101_____493____4.9_____16______136_____3_______96.9

[nathanq42]

Just for the heck of it I decided to see how Taylor and CEH fared against common opponents.

______Games___ATT___YDS___YPC___REC____YDS___TD___Fantasy Pts.
Taylor__6_______89_____488____5.5_____14_______77_____7______112.5
CEH____6______101_____493____4.9_____16______136_____3_______96.9

Damn near identical other than TDs.

[smbkrypt24]

Just for the heck of it I decided to see how Taylor and CEH fared against common opponents.

______Games___ATT___YDS___YPC___REC____YDS___TD___Fantasy Pts.
Taylor__6_______89_____488____5.5_____14_______77_____7______112.5
CEH____6______101_____493____4.9_____16______136_____3_______96.9

I am curious when those common games were. JT didn't start getting a big load until the end of the year.

[MEuRaH]

In a full PPR league I'd be happy with either guy, though I'd expect JT to turn out better in the end, I wouldn't be shocked if CEH became the better back either. I'd be content with either guy. In all honesty if Dobbins was the #1 back next year vs JT/CEH, I wouldn't be surprised either.

In anything less than full PPR I'd rather own JT right now.

[OhCruelestRanter]

In a full PPR league I'd be happy with either guy, though I'd expect JT to turn out better in the end, I wouldn't be shocked if CEH became the better back either. I'd be content with either guy. In all honesty if Dobbins was the #1 back next year vs JT/CEH, I wouldn't be surprised either.

In anything less than full PPR I'd rather own JT right now.

Pretty good for the most overrated back in the class.

To be fair, CEH managed to score a TD despite averaging 1.2 YPC in his opportunities playing behind All-World talent Darrell Williams.

[StripesOfKC]

In a full PPR league I'd be happy with either guy, though I'd expect JT to turn out better in the end, I wouldn't be shocked if CEH became the better back either. I'd be content with either guy. In all honesty if Dobbins was the #1 back next year vs JT/CEH, I wouldn't be surprised either.

In anything less than full PPR I'd rather own JT right now.

Pretty good for the most overrated back in the class.

To be fair, CEH managed to score a TD despite averaging 1.2 YPC in his opportunities playing behind All-World talent Darrell Williams.

He was hurt with the following OL after Fisher went down (also our starting OL for the Super Bowl):

LT: mike remmers—hasn’t played LT since 2016 and mostly a RG

LG: nick allrgreti—7th rounder in 2nd year

C: austin reiter—7th rounder

RG: Stefen Wiznewski: cut by steelers this year and signed a few weeks ago

RT: Andrew Wylie—UDFA guard

I see though that you have no interest in making fair comparisons. That would be far less snarky and not as clear cut (though I still prefer JT as I did last year)