Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Good lord, Mike just locked his “Jonathan Taylor is overrated” thread. Pour one out for that take. Startup 1.03 on Mizelle right now.

Because you're focused on a pre-draft analysis where I explicitly said that all of that goes out the window if he gets drafted to a power scheme, which I honestly thought was unlikely. I've locked all of my pre-draft analysis threads. I forgot the one you bumped even existed until I logged on today.

My post-draft analysis is the official rank, as stated in the title, and I won't lock that thread.

Mike, locking a thread with a title that’s spectacularly embarrassing for you is bad, but making a big show about which opinions you put on a fantasy football website are “official” is definitely worse. Jesus, man.

[murphysxm]

Carries they get when they’re 18 against smaller less athletic college defenders when their bodies can rebound quicker are not the same as nfl carries when they’re older and their bodies rebound slower. What on earth are you guys talking about.

Running back carries are incredibly overrated indicators of a RB's lifespan.

# of injuries (especially lower body injuries) is much more indicative.

Let me put it this way. If you have a choice between a Porsche with 100,000 miles on it or a Malibu with 5,000 miles on it for the same price, you would weigh the advantages of each. If they both have 100,000 miles on them who woukd in their right mind lean towards the Malibu?

Their are outliers, but massive workload absolutely lessen's a RB's career length.

[Cameron Giles]

Wait, Taylor is the 1.03 in dynasty right now?

Uh... I guess I understand because youth + production, but that's still really hefty for an RB who struggled half of the season.

[Bronco Billy]

Carries they get when they’re 18 against smaller less athletic college defenders when their bodies can rebound quicker are not the same as nfl carries when they’re older and their bodies rebound slower. What on earth are you guys talking about.

Running back carries are incredibly overrated indicators of a RB's lifespan.

# of injuries (especially lower body injuries) is much more indicative.

Let me put it this way. If you have a choice between a Porsche with 100,000 miles on it or a Malibu with 5,000 miles on it for the same price, you would weigh the advantages of each. If they both have 100,000 miles on them who woukd in their right mind lean towards the Malibu?

Their are outliers, but massive workload absolutely lessen's a RB's career length.

Humans aren’t metal structures. The latter can have its durability measured tangibly through mechanics of materials and intangibles have no bearing on those measures. The former can’t. There’s your mistake. There are enough examples of players with heavy college workloads also having extended NFL careers with large workloads to verify that, which apparently you are willing to choose to ignore.

[Sriracha]

Carries they get when they’re 18 against smaller less athletic college defenders when their bodies can rebound quicker are not the same as nfl carries when they’re older and their bodies rebound slower. What on earth are you guys talking about.

Running back carries are incredibly overrated indicators of a RB's lifespan.

# of injuries (especially lower body injuries) is much more indicative.

Let me put it this way. If you have a choice between a Porsche with 100,000 miles on it or a Malibu with 5,000 miles on it for the same price, you would weigh the advantages of each. If they both have 100,000 miles on them who woukd in their right mind lean towards the Malibu?

Their are outliers, but massive workload absolutely lessen's a RB's career length.

These athletes come in all shapes and sizes. In your example the cars are more or less carbon copies of each other, the Mean Time to Failure has also been carefully calculated and it's more or less a simple choice. You're never going to get a similar choice with RBs... Trying to build on your flawed example: There are two brand new cars designed and created by two unknown automotive makers, of unknown quality, one of them has been in 20 accidents and has 5,000 miles; the other has been in 2 accidents and has 100,000 miles; which one is going to break down first?

Injuries are correlated with usage; but are not assured. So usually more "mileage" will lead to an earlier career exit because these RBs will tend to get injured more. In general, the RB's that are constantly on the injury report don't last long in the NFL and those that aren't tend to become the outliers. Derrick Henry is going to be in the league into his 30's despite taking some of the most punishment in the NFL -- because he's enormous and his body can handle the multiple car crash level collisions a RB takes on better than most. If anything, we should've been encouraged by JT's health despite his heavy workload; not scared of him having too much tread on his tires.

[MEuRaH]

Wait, Taylor is the 1.03 in dynasty right now?

Uh... I guess I understand because youth + production, but that's still really hefty for an RB who struggled half of the season.

Yeah that shocked me too at first. I watched a startup and JT also went 1.03 there (CMC, Kamara) and I was floored, but after some thought I get it. WR is deep, and the top end RB talent is scarce. If it was the reverse I think all those RBs would be a lot lower.

I'm too nervous to invest in the position anymore. Gurley, Zeke, and Hunt used to be my RB core for my top team, and over night they just crapped the bed. Meanwhile my shares of Hopkins and Adams have remained steady.

I'd be looking at DK third and other awesome WRs before JT, but he might be my RB3 or RB4 at this point as well. Dude can ball and he has a great line and coaching staff, and oh, he's a pretty elite talent too. If his catches can get to the CMC/Kamara level.... yikes!

[Yarnith]

Injuries are correlated with usage; but are not assured. So usually more "mileage" will lead to an earlier career exit because these RBs will tend to get injured more. In general, the RB's that are constantly on the injury report don't last long in the NFL and those that aren't tend to become the outliers. Derrick Henry is going to be in the league into his 30's despite taking some of the most punishment in the NFL -- because he's enormous and his body can handle the multiple car crash level collisions a RB takes on better than most. If anything, we should've been encouraged by JT's health despite his heavy workload; not scared of him having too much tread on his tires.

While it is possible Henry plays until he is 40 it is unlikely. More likely he plays into his 30's at a high level but history says also not likely. Tall RB's take far more abuse than shorter ones over thier careers. They cant get as low and take far more big hits than shorter backs. Running backs struggle to produce high statistical years after 300 carries. Again it does happen but is exceedingly rare. Running backs after 2000 yard season usually drop in production drastically. Not always but usually this happens. I can flip a penny 100 times and it is possible I could get heads 100 times but not likely. All of this can be googled and you will find a stupid amount of research and data done over a decade or more on these subjects.

Math says "hey careful here". I was so careful I traded Zeke away because I can start JT in his place with what I think is no drop off. I am however well aware he may drop off a cliff faster than most RB's but I also have CEH as insurance if the worst happens. The reality is do what ya want but a wise person should pay maybe a smidge more attention to JT insurance over the longterm based on historical data for the position. You don't wanna believe that then don't. Some people gamble in Vegas, I don't because I know the odds are stacked against me.

[Sriracha]

Injuries are correlated with usage; but are not assured. So usually more "mileage" will lead to an earlier career exit because these RBs will tend to get injured more. In general, the RB's that are constantly on the injury report don't last long in the NFL and those that aren't tend to become the outliers. Derrick Henry is going to be in the league into his 30's despite taking some of the most punishment in the NFL -- because he's enormous and his body can handle the multiple car crash level collisions a RB takes on better than most. If anything, we should've been encouraged by JT's health despite his heavy workload; not scared of him having too much tread on his tires.

While it is possible Henry plays until he is 40 it is unlikely. More likely he plays into his 30's at a high level but history says also not likely. Tall RB's take far more abuse than shorter ones over thier careers. They cant get as low and take far more big hits than shorter backs. Running backs struggle to produce high statistical years after 300 carries. Again it does happen but is exceedingly rare. Running backs after 2000 yard season usually drop in production drastically. Not always but usually this happens. I can flip a penny 100 times and it is possible I could get heads 100 times but not likely. All of this can be googled and you will find a stupid amount of research and data done over a decade or more on these subjects.

Math says "hey careful here". I was so careful I traded Zeke away because I can start JT in his place with what I think is no drop off. I am however well aware he may drop off a cliff faster than most RB's but I also have CEH as insurance if the worst happens. The reality is do what ya want but a wise person should pay maybe a smidge more attention to JT insurance over the longterm based on historical data for the position. You don't wanna believe that then don't. Some people gamble in Vegas, I don't because I know the odds are stacked against me.

The thing is... Henry's already proven that these concerns don't outweigh his freak of nature physical advantages... because he's hardly ever on the injury report. If Henry starts getting injured we can come back to this... but injuries are the cause, and # of carries are a correlation.

A wise person would buy in the face of unfounded fear.

[OhCruelestRanter]

You're doing it wrong. That'll be Watson for Julio Jones and a 2022 2nd.

Then we'll trade that 2nd for Kirk Cousins!

That all sounds great but don't forget to sign Dalton as the starter so he can mentor Cousins!

You’re all wrong, they’re going to trade Watson for Tua and their own 2021 1st!

Um

[mgscott]

Injuries are correlated with usage; but are not assured. So usually more "mileage" will lead to an earlier career exit because these RBs will tend to get injured more. In general, the RB's that are constantly on the injury report don't last long in the NFL and those that aren't tend to become the outliers. Derrick Henry is going to be in the league into his 30's despite taking some of the most punishment in the NFL -- because he's enormous and his body can handle the multiple car crash level collisions a RB takes on better than most. If anything, we should've been encouraged by JT's health despite his heavy workload; not scared of him having too much tread on his tires.

While it is possible Henry plays until he is 40 it is unlikely. More likely he plays into his 30's at a high level but history says also not likely. Tall RB's take far more abuse than shorter ones over thier careers. They cant get as low and take far more big hits than shorter backs. Running backs struggle to produce high statistical years after 300 carries. Again it does happen but is exceedingly rare. Running backs after 2000 yard season usually drop in production drastically. Not always but usually this happens. I can flip a penny 100 times and it is possible I could get heads 100 times but not likely. All of this can be googled and you will find a stupid amount of research and data done over a decade or more on these subjects.

Math says "hey careful here". I was so careful I traded Zeke away because I can start JT in his place with what I think is no drop off. I am however well aware he may drop off a cliff faster than most RB's but I also have CEH as insurance if the worst happens. The reality is do what ya want but a wise person should pay maybe a smidge more attention to JT insurance over the longterm based on historical data for the position. You don't wanna believe that then don't. Some people gamble in Vegas, I don't because I know the odds are stacked against me.

Are you saying the odds are against you for any RB, because they all eventually drop off, or are you saying you're playing the odds against RB's that have higher carries? I haven't ever seen real data or stats that truly show RB's struggle due to high carries more than the average RB after an average year.

[AussieMate]

Wait, Taylor is the 1.03 in dynasty right now?

Uh... I guess I understand because youth + production, but that's still really hefty for an RB who struggled half of the season.

I wanted to bring this up but was afraid I'd get blown away with all the love Taylor gets. A product of his massive last game? I'm all for moving up young RB's etc but that's usually for rbs like Zeke or Saquon who come in and kill it from day 1. Also I'm sure most analyst I've read had Taylor as a massive buy for the second half of the season as his end of season run was fairly favourable in terms of run defences but I could be mixing that up with Monty.
This is all sounds overly critical and I do like Taylor as a top 5-6 rb but its hard to put him above Kamara, CMAC, Barkley, Henry, Cook just yet, I could see a path to put him 4th maybe just behind CMAC Kamara and Barkley.
Also I'm not calling it crazy, if you have him at 3 you do you, its not insane, I just have some hesitation not move him that high just yet.
Can someone who knows better hit me back about his end of season run and the run D's he faced? I'm also well aware that he improved his game as the year went on so I'm not putting his rise solely on a weak schedule, just like Sanders did his vision IMO looked better later in the year when he had adjusted to NFL speed and lost the tunnel vision.

[Krypto_King]

ok, but you don't have hesitation about 26y/o Kamara without Brees, Barkley coming off 2 semi-lost years and stagnating offense, Henry's age difference and usage, Cook's injury history? Taylor is likely the most insulated though not as high a ceiling

[Jigga94]

ok, but you don't have hesitation about 26y/o Kamara without Brees, Barkley coming off 2 semi-lost years and stagnating offense, Henry's age difference and usage, Cook's injury history? Taylor is likely the most insulated though not as high a ceiling

That's the thing. CMC is the only one I'd definitely put ahead and even he had a weird year with the injuries after his 400 touch season... I'd have no issue with Kamara or Barkley ahead of JT due to ceiling, but after that, give me the youngest guy who I've always liked as a prospect. Same thing will happen in 2-3 years. Barkley might be in Henry's shoes and JT will be 24 or 25 and near the cliff of value for RBs. Just how it goes

[AussieMate]

ok, but you don't have hesitation about 26y/o Kamara without Brees, Barkley coming off 2 semi-lost years and stagnating offense, Henry's age difference and usage, Cook's injury history? Taylor is likely the most insulated though not as high a ceiling

I said you could put him over Henry, and no, I'm not worried about Kamara. What about Kamara has you concerned so far? his low usage but high output? Barkley I could see why people have a problem but at this point I think he's still a better running back until I see more from Taylor. Generally I'll take the elite over the insulated but I like gambling when it comes to FF.

[Yarnith]

Are you saying the odds are against you for any RB, because they all eventually drop off, or are you saying you're playing the odds against RB's that have higher carries? I haven't ever seen real data or stats that truly show RB's struggle due to high carries more than the average RB after an average year.

I am saying I know the odds are longer for high usage backs having long careers. If you haven't ever seen stats that truly show all these things you have never looked for it. Believe whatever ya want I will stay with my conservative estimates.