Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

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Vcize
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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Vcize » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:10 pm

Bronco Billy wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:17 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:04 am
Bronco Billy wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:48 am
The next time FFers bitch about Preseason (or Training Camp and OTAs) they might think back to this year with all the injuries, the slow starts by rookies, and some of the really sloppy play and rethink that position.
You say that but the rookie wrs are off to a great start. I think it’s more likely that this Rb class, while still good, was oversold originally
What does a group of exceptional WRs have to do with how fast RBs acclimate?
If the theory is that a lack of a preseason makes it very difficult for RBs to get up to speed, given that it's the easiest position to due that quickly, then that would make it basically impossible for WRs to get up to speed given it generally takes them even more time.

Yet this may be the fastest rookie WR start in history. Clearly the lack of a preseason has not affected the WRs at all.
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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby hoos89 » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:12 pm

Argument I've seen for that is that a lot of top DBs are down so rookies are often going up against lesser DBs. There's a tonnnnn of WRs on crazy paces (not just rookies) this season.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Rodgers, Tannehill, Wentz
Jacobs, Ekeler, Conner, Taylor, Gaskin, D. Harris, McKinnon, Richard, Ahmed
AJB, Moore, Aiyuk, Claypool, Slayton, MVS, Agholor, J. Gordon, James
Andrews, Herndon,
IR(3): Sutton, Michel, Love
Taxi(4): Tua, G. Davis, Bowden
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Tannehill, Tua, Bridgewater
CEH, Ito, Barkley, Ito, J. Jackson, Richard, JJ Taylor, Homer, Love, Foreman
J. Jefferson, McLaurin, Jeudy, T. Higgins, Cooks, Berrios, Byrd, Berrios, C. Johnson, T. Johnson, Foster, J. Smith, Ford, Harmon
Hooper, Herndon
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Bot101 » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:27 pm

You can see the game is starting to finally slow down for him. And he is better than most anticipated in the passing game. Why they keep gifting opposing defenses touches to Hines and Wilkins is beyond me. Hines is supposed to be the pass catcher and JT is better at it already lol.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Bronco Billy » Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:48 am

Vcize wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:10 pm
Bronco Billy wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:17 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:04 am


You say that but the rookie wrs are off to a great start. I think it’s more likely that this Rb class, while still good, was oversold originally
What does a group of exceptional WRs have to do with how fast RBs acclimate?
If the theory is that a lack of a preseason makes it very difficult for RBs to get up to speed, given that it's the easiest position to due that quickly, then that would make it basically impossible for WRs to get up to speed given it generally takes them even more time.

Yet this may be the fastest rookie WR start in history. Clearly the lack of a preseason has not affected the WRs at all.
This was addressed earlier. Some people just want to stick to conventions in a very unconventional season.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Patsfan86 » Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:25 am

Swift is your 1.01 now
Jefferson is your 1.2 now
Lamb your 1.03
But Taylor i guess is your 1.04 now???

Point is he can play but he hasnt had a real breakout game yet, once that happens we can have a discussion as to if he was the 1.01. In my rookie draft he went 1.03 after CEH and Dobbins which i think is fair. Personally i had Swift Dobbins Taylor (tier break) CEH as my top 4. I think KC reached a bit and CEH was propped up way too much because of situation. I def think Taylor is the better talent than CEH and MAY be as talented as Dobbins and Swift but i havent seen that yet. Yes i know dobbins hasnt had anywhere near a breakout game yet but his situation isnt like JT since JT is a lead back and gets more opportunity. In the end i think all 3 of my Top guys are in the RB1 range, perhaps top 6 and if you took taylor at 1.01 im not gonna fault you for it.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Vcize » Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:42 am

Bronco Billy wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:02 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:21 am
Bronco Billy wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:17 am


What does a group of exceptional WRs have to do with how fast RBs acclimate?
Isn’t the wr position traditionally harder to acclimate to in the nfl? Not sure how you can say no preseason has been bad for rbs but then have a large group of wrs doing perfectly fine, seemingly completely unaffected
It’s pretty easy. There have been a ton of starting CBs hampered by injuries so far, and as stated above a lot of rookie WRs have been getting opportunities they normally might not, some of them are seeing ST level DBs in coverage, and this year’s bunch has the looks of an outstanding group.

RBs on the other hand have to face the entire D instead of beating one guy, and almost every player in the league will tell you how much more fast the game is than college. The rooks just need to get more time under their belts to let the game slow down.

Normally that would happen in OTAs, TC, and PS. Now they’re going right into the fire. Be patient, and take advantage of owners who aren’t. It’s just an odd year.
This seems kind of contrived to me. There have always been bad defenses and rookies are always playing against weaker cornerbacks. We can even overlook the production for a minute and just take note of how many WRs are getting on the field as primary targets for their teams.

The argument that Justin Jefferson is facing weaker than usual #2 CBs is kind of silly because a guy like Justin Jefferson even starting as the #2 WR and not still being being eased into the rotation and facing #4 CBs is impressive even in a normal year, much less if the lack of offseason is hurting these guys as much as you say. The mere fact that guys like Jefferson, Jeudy, Lamb, Claypool, etc are getting on the field as much as they are debunks the notion that the offseason has been incredibly detrimental to the rookies. If it were they wouldn't even be getting reps at this point yet here they are, out there getting reps and playing extremely well.

I also don't see any real data that can be provided that rookie WRs are facing weaker than normal DB play. It seems like a completely contrived and made up thing to try and finagle an answer to something that is unexplainable if the original thesis holds true.

Sure we can say Jefferson's 9-166-2 is just because he was playing against a terrible Falcons' secondary that had a bunch of injuries. But the Falcons' secondary has been terrible and had an outrageous amount of injuries for 3 years straight now. Somehow that didn't do much for Paris Campbell (3-24-0), Andy Isabella (0-0-0), or JJAW (0-0-0) when they matched up against them last year.
Last edited by Vcize on Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:02 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby hoos89 » Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:45 am

I mean...who was going to keep Jefferson out of the #2 WR slot? The Vikings are absolutely bereft at WR behind him. This is a very weird season, so I'm hesitant to say that we can't make a no-preseason excuse for some players because other players are excelling.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Rodgers, Tannehill, Wentz
Jacobs, Ekeler, Conner, Taylor, Gaskin, D. Harris, McKinnon, Richard, Ahmed
AJB, Moore, Aiyuk, Claypool, Slayton, MVS, Agholor, J. Gordon, James
Andrews, Herndon,
IR(3): Sutton, Michel, Love
Taxi(4): Tua, G. Davis, Bowden
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Tannehill, Tua, Bridgewater
CEH, Ito, Barkley, Ito, J. Jackson, Richard, JJ Taylor, Homer, Love, Foreman
J. Jefferson, McLaurin, Jeudy, T. Higgins, Cooks, Berrios, Byrd, Berrios, C. Johnson, T. Johnson, Foster, J. Smith, Ford, Harmon
Hooper, Herndon
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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Patsfan86 » Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:49 am

I think we need to stop comparing the WRs of this class to the RBs. In the end i feel like we are going to look at this WR class as possibly the best ever while we look at this RB class as just good. Its just not fair really. This is an absolutely exceptional WR class in a league that is more pass happy then ever before. Lets be honest if RBs werent as valuable as they are none of the RBs would have gone in the Top 2, it would have been Lamb and Jeudy. This is kind of like comparing Peyton to Eli, same family, different talent.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby CGW » Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:03 am

trader_nation wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:39 pm
I thought the JT truthers would have at least try to counter what I said and said that he's good at running the football. Instead I get a series of semi-troll posts telliing that JT is the best offensive player for the colts WTF? and he was good at college?

Anyway, I don't have PFF subscription why doens't someone just post his PFF for the year? instrad of getting all petty because JTT is extremly underwelming as per everyone who doesn't own him.

"He's their best offensive player and there really is no debate" Interesting, I would have thought it would have been All-Pro Quenton Nelson

"So you sold him and now are trying to feel better about it" Jiga, trolling people on threads isn't going to make your players play better. Don't worry about me, try and move off him the team in your signature before his value plummets even more.

"Isn't 12 for 60 like 5 yards a carry...? "this guy blows!"" read my post

"Behind a really good offensive line" "Whilst getting all the carries he can handle" that's the problem, he hasn't produced given the circumstances.

"And with an athletic and college production pedigree in the 99.9% percentile" you don't get FF ponts for this (perhaps you have different scoring rules thoug
Lots to digest here.

Here's some numbers for you since that seems to be what you are after.

Week 1 - 9 carries for 22 yards, 2.44ypc
Week 2 - 26 carries for 101 yards, 3.88ypc
Week 3 - 13 carries for 59 yards, 4.59ypc
Week 4 - 17 carries for 68 yards, 4.00ypc
Week 5 - 12 carries for 57 yards, 4.75ypc
Week 6 - 12 carries for 60 yards, 5.00ypc

He's also added 14 of 16 in the passing game for 162.

Things I've noticed.
1. He's improved his ypc just about every game. He's also breaking off larger runs each week, despite facing stacked boxes routinely. When Rivers hits a couple downfield throws it has significantly opened things up for Taylor.
2. His snap count is gradually increasing (35%,67%,41%,46%,55%,59%) outside of the week two beat down of Minnesota.
3. He had a few runs I thought looked poor early on - missing holes, or running into blockers. He's looked much better week 4 on. As others have mentioned, this type of evaluation from our couches doesnt provide a ton of info.
4. Prior to week 6, he faced stacked boxes of 8+ defenders 27% of his runs. That is good for 5th highest in the NFL.
5. The Colts have no offensive weapons. Hilton has slowed considerably. Campbell is on IR since week 2 with a knee injury. Pittman is on IR with compartment syndrome. The best two receivers after Hilton are Pascal and Johnson...two guys that wouldn't crack many NFL rosters.
6. Rivers is done. His QBR is 64.5, which is 20th in the league. He has 1 multi TD game this entire season. This is while being sacked only 6 times, which is the best protection in the league.

I don't see a lot of Trent Richardson here. I'm happy with his performance for a 1.03 pick and thrilled with the opportunity thus far. Top 5 startup is a bit rich, but I don't see him being much worse than top 15 or 20. There is a lot of upside here.
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QB | Cousins, Darnold, Trubisky, Flacco, Walker
RB | CEH, Taylor, Gaskin, Singletary, Wilkins, Ahmed
WR | Adams, Evans, Golladay, Cooper, D. Johnson, Miller, G. Davis, Mooney, Pascal
TE | Andrews, Alie-Cox, Rodgers

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QB | Murray, Minshew, Tagovailoa
RB | Montgomery, Singletary, Murray, R. Jones, Dobbins, Swift, Vaughn
WR | Godwin, AJ Brown, Lamb, M. Brown, D. Johnson, Slayton, Aiyuk, Reynolds, Fulgham, Peoples-Jones, Mooney
TE | Andrews, Henry, Herndon, Sample

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QB | Watson, Wilson, Darnold, Trubisky, Fromme, Smith, Flacco
RB | Guice, Hines, Penny, Henderson, Wilkins
WR | Evans, Golladay, Ridley, Kupp, D. Johnson, Pittman, Fulgham, Mooney, Ward, T. Smith, Zaccheus
TE | Ertz, Herndon, Sternberger, L. Thomas

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Vcize » Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:07 am

hoos89 wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:45 am
I mean...who was going to keep Jefferson out of the #2 WR slot? The Vikings are absolutely bereft at WR behind him. This is a very weird season, so I'm hesitant to say that we can't make a no-preseason excuse for some players because other players are excelling.
Right, because Philly had such an amazing WR corps last year to keep JJAW from getting on the field. And because Damiere Byrd and K. Johnson were such impossible guys for Andy Isabella to beat out last year when he couldn't even get on the field for a team that was putting 4+ WRs on the field every play. And Zach Pascal was insurmountable competition for Paris Campbell to win the #2 job from in Indy last year.

This is exactly my point. It's so easy to just use hindsight to say "oh weak competition on the team" and "oh that was against a bad defense" but these things happen every year and the rookies typically amount to little in the face of it. And that's in a year with a normal offseason. If this offseason was so impossible for rookie RBs who were being treated as top 5 fantasy options at their entire position a few weeks ago then there is no way a bunch of WRs, at a position that is 10x harder to get on the field for and 20x harder to produce as a rookie for, would be doing it. Even if this is the greatest WR class in NFL history which statistically, it's probably not.
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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby jenkins.math » Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:15 am

Vcize wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:07 am
hoos89 wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:45 am
I mean...who was going to keep Jefferson out of the #2 WR slot? The Vikings are absolutely bereft at WR behind him. This is a very weird season, so I'm hesitant to say that we can't make a no-preseason excuse for some players because other players are excelling.
Right, because Philly had such an amazing WR corps last year to keep JJAW from getting on the field. And because Damiere Byrd and K. Johnson were such impossible guys for Andy Isabella to beat out last year when he couldn't even get on the field for a team that was putting 4+ WRs on the field every play. And Zach Pascal was insurmountable competition for Paris Campbell to win the #2 job from in Indy last year.

This is exactly my point. It's so easy to just use hindsight to say "oh weak competition on the team" and "oh that was against a bad defense" but these things happen every year and the rookies typically amount to little in the face of it. And that's in a year with a normal offseason. If this offseason was so impossible for rookie RBs who were being treated as top 5 fantasy options at their entire position a few weeks ago then there is no way a bunch of WRs, at a position that is 10x harder to get on the field for and 20x harder to produce as a rookie for, would be doing it. Even if this is the greatest WR class in NFL history which statistically, it's probably not.
I think that is where our thinking is outdated and needs to change. The passing game as a whole has gotten easier and easier which benefits WRs as much as QBs. Which is why WR is probably as deep as it has ever been in FF. I'm not sure the expectation for a WR needs to be "wait until year 3" anymore like it was a decade ago.
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LB: Kendricks
DB: B. Baker

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby hoos89 » Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:15 am

It actually might be the greatest WR class in NFL history at this rate. But still, it's just speculative to say how no preseason affects one position versus another, and the fact that WRs have busted in the past doesn't really counter that.

And agree with the above poster. In recent years we've seen more and more rookie WRs hit early, and I think it's becoming less common for WRs to do nothing as a rookie and then breakout a year or two down the line.

It's possible that the lack of preseason has affected defenses in a way that benefits receivers more than RBs, or that it just benefits more talented players on average, and the WRs as a whole are more talented than the RBs.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Rodgers, Tannehill, Wentz
Jacobs, Ekeler, Conner, Taylor, Gaskin, D. Harris, McKinnon, Richard, Ahmed
AJB, Moore, Aiyuk, Claypool, Slayton, MVS, Agholor, J. Gordon, James
Andrews, Herndon,
IR(3): Sutton, Michel, Love
Taxi(4): Tua, G. Davis, Bowden
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Tannehill, Tua, Bridgewater
CEH, Ito, Barkley, Ito, J. Jackson, Richard, JJ Taylor, Homer, Love, Foreman
J. Jefferson, McLaurin, Jeudy, T. Higgins, Cooks, Berrios, Byrd, Berrios, C. Johnson, T. Johnson, Foster, J. Smith, Ford, Harmon
Hooper, Herndon
2021 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby killer_of_giants » Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:01 am

jenkins.math wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:15 am
I think that is where our thinking is outdated and needs to change. The passing game as a whole has gotten easier and easier which benefits WRs as much as QBs. Which is why WR is probably as deep as it has ever been in FF. I'm not sure the expectation for a WR needs to be "wait until year 3" anymore like it was a decade ago.
yeah i agree with this. it certainly seems a better explanation than "banged up CBs around the league", which is even weaker if you consider that many WRs have looked great in their first season in recent years, not just this.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby CGW » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:49 pm

Ugh. Straight up being out carried by Wilkins. For as good as the Colts O-line is, they are not good run blockers. I think I've seen 7 times RBs have been hit in the backfield.

Not too excited with this week's performance off a bye.
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RB | CEH, Taylor, Gaskin, Singletary, Wilkins, Ahmed
WR | Adams, Evans, Golladay, Cooper, D. Johnson, Miller, G. Davis, Mooney, Pascal
TE | Andrews, Alie-Cox, Rodgers

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RB | Montgomery, Singletary, Murray, R. Jones, Dobbins, Swift, Vaughn
WR | Godwin, AJ Brown, Lamb, M. Brown, D. Johnson, Slayton, Aiyuk, Reynolds, Fulgham, Peoples-Jones, Mooney
TE | Andrews, Henry, Herndon, Sample

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QB | Watson, Wilson, Darnold, Trubisky, Fromme, Smith, Flacco
RB | Guice, Hines, Penny, Henderson, Wilkins
WR | Evans, Golladay, Ridley, Kupp, D. Johnson, Pittman, Fulgham, Mooney, Ward, T. Smith, Zaccheus
TE | Ertz, Herndon, Sternberger, L. Thomas

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Kmani6 » Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:35 pm

CGW wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:49 pm
Ugh. Straight up being out carried by Wilkins. For as good as the Colts O-line is, they are not good run blockers. I think I've seen 7 times RBs have been hit in the backfield.

Not too excited with this week's performance off a bye.
Well, JT was out carried by Wilkins because Wilkins was playing better. Also, at the end of the day, Wilkins was running behind the same line and totaled 90 rush yards at 4.5 YPC. Same Oline that Mack feasted on the last two years. Maybe JT just isn't there yet in terms of running between the tackles.
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