Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby dlf_mikeh » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:58 pm

Ice wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:55 pm
Like Taylor as the 4th RB in this class. Great college production expect he fumbles a lot. Looks like he will be good in power schemes but lacks the agility I like to see in zone schemes. Think he is scheme dependent. Doesn't play real quick but he can run by defenders. He doesn't make defenders miss very often due to one dimensional running style. I knock him down due to versatility and mileage.

I do get concerned with really high carry backs out of Wisconsin. Career length is a minor concern. Could easily be a 1 contract type player IMO.
Just quoting something I liked by a guy whose opinion I respect.

JT has the traits to be an elite runner based on combine numbers. Based on experience, however, he tells a far different story. Too many questions marks for me to pull the trigger on him unless he falls out of the top 6 or so.
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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:59 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:34 pm
He doesn't have to be the 1st RB taken to remain my 1.01, but if there is a drastic difference in draft capital/situation it could shift things.
Let's say the draft unfolds like this:

1st Round: Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, Jefferson, Swift (Miami), Mims
2nd Round: Reagor, Dobbins (Chargers), Taylor (Buffalo), Akers (Atlanta)

Is Taylor the 1.01? I see 3 RBs (Taylor, Swift, Dobbins) who are not that far apart from each other in talent, skill, or situation, and one in Akers who may actually be underrated.

Is drafting Taylor at the 1.01 really the best use of value?

If I have the 1.01 in a league and someone is convinced that Taylor is the clear cut guy, I'm going to trade down and commit robbery.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:59 pm

Running a 24 hour twitter poll on this question and so far 70% would still take their guy 1.01 even if he were the 2nd or 3rd RB taken in the draft. Interesting. 50 votes so far
12 team PPR
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor (R), Dobbins (R), Henderson, R. Anderson,
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Miller
TE: Engram, Hockenson, I Thomas, Warring
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR
QB: Darnold, Bridgewater, Stidham (TX)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Jackson, Ballage, Murray, Samuels, B Hill, Henderson (TX), Ozigbo (TX), Gaskin (TX)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, Lazard, Isabella (TX), P. Williams (TX), JJAW (TX), Doss (TX), S. Miller (TX)
TE: Rudolph, Graham, Sternberger (TX)
K:
DEF: LAR
Picks: 1.1, 1.3, 2.4, 5.7, 2021 1, 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 2, 2021 4, 2021 5

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby AussieMate » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:14 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:59 pm
Running a 24 hour twitter poll on this question and so far 70% would still take their guy 1.01 even if he were the 2nd or 3rd RB taken in the draft. Interesting. 50 votes so far
That fits to what I've seen, most people have there guy and would need a massive drop in draft capital to move.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:20 pm

AussieMate wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:14 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:59 pm
Running a 24 hour twitter poll on this question and so far 70% would still take their guy 1.01 even if he were the 2nd or 3rd RB taken in the draft. Interesting. 50 votes so far
That fits to what I've seen, most people have there guy and would need a massive drop in draft capital to move.
I’ve said this a few times now, but it would be pretty rare for the 1.01 to not be the first guy taken around his position. You’d have to go back to Ryan Mathews over Spiller, and that was like 3 picks IIRC, and SD was considered a much better spot than Buffalo. A second round RB being the consensus 1.01 over a first round RB would be unheard of, although not impossible.

My guess is that if this happens, a lot of Taylor folks will say “well the NFL just doesn’t value Taylor” and change their mind.
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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:24 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:59 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:34 pm
He doesn't have to be the 1st RB taken to remain my 1.01, but if there is a drastic difference in draft capital/situation it could shift things.
Let's say the draft unfolds like this:

1st Round: Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, Jefferson, Swift (Miami), Mims
2nd Round: Reagor, Dobbins (Chargers), Taylor (Buffalo), Akers (Atlanta)

Is Taylor the 1.01? I see 3 RBs (Taylor, Swift, Dobbins) who are not that far apart from each other in talent, skill, or situation, and one in Akers who may actually be underrated.

Is drafting Taylor at the 1.01 really the best use of value?

If I have the 1.01 in a league and someone is convinced that Taylor is the clear cut guy, I'm going to trade down and commit robbery.
Yup, I would take Taylor 1.01 in that scenario. Good team with a great D and improving offense that wants to establish the running game, with the best OL among the landing spots of the top 3 RBs (JT, Swift, JK) and ya he has Singletary to deal with, but that's better than Ekeler or Gurley for JK/Akers in this scenario, and Swift would have Howard to deal with too. I think Buffalo would actually be quite a good RB landing spot in this draft. Also I'm taking the RB over a WR in rookie drafts the majority of the time because they come in at/near peak production and value nearly right away whereas WRs could take some time, so I am 99% certain I'm taking a RB at 1.01 this year no matter who it is.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:25 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:20 pm
AussieMate wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:14 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:59 pm
Running a 24 hour twitter poll on this question and so far 70% would still take their guy 1.01 even if he were the 2nd or 3rd RB taken in the draft. Interesting. 50 votes so far
That fits to what I've seen, most people have there guy and would need a massive drop in draft capital to move.
I’ve said this a few times now, but it would be pretty rare for the 1.01 to not be the first guy taken around his position. You’d have to go back to Ryan Mathews over Spiller, and that was like 3 picks IIRC, and SD was considered a much better spot than Buffalo. A second round RB being the consensus 1.01 over a first round RB would be unheard of, although not impossible.

My guess is that if this happens, a lot of Taylor folks will say “well the NFL just doesn’t value Taylor” and change their mind.
Your post is exactly why I asked this question and started the poll. history would suggest that 1.01 would NOT be the 2nd or 3rd player drafted at his position.

I fully expect Taylor to NOT be the first RB selected in the NFL draft (2nd is my thought)
12 team PPR
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor (R), Dobbins (R), Henderson, R. Anderson,
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Miller
TE: Engram, Hockenson, I Thomas, Warring
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR
QB: Darnold, Bridgewater, Stidham (TX)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Jackson, Ballage, Murray, Samuels, B Hill, Henderson (TX), Ozigbo (TX), Gaskin (TX)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, Lazard, Isabella (TX), P. Williams (TX), JJAW (TX), Doss (TX), S. Miller (TX)
TE: Rudolph, Graham, Sternberger (TX)
K:
DEF: LAR
Picks: 1.1, 1.3, 2.4, 5.7, 2021 1, 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 2, 2021 4, 2021 5

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:33 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:15 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:20 am
If Taylor is NOT the 1st RB off the board in the NFL draft, does he lose his 1.01 status solely on that?
I think if Taylor is not one of the top skill position players off the board, then people should at least reconsider.

There's a relevant chance that Taylor goes behind 2 RBs and 5-6 WRs. It would be hard to anoint him as the clear 1.01 if that happens. At some point, NFL scouting has to align to some degree with rookie drafts.

That's not to say that we need to draft in order of the NFL though, but there's potentially better value to be had on paper if someone takes Taylor at 1.01 and someone like Dobbins or Swift is available at 1.04-1.06.
It does, to some degree, but again, it's typical for RB's to go ahead of WR's in Fantasy drafts, due to their value in most leagues. Guice, as I had used as an example, was widely considered 1.02 behind an all time type prospect in Barkley, despite being the 7th RB taken, and there were WR's that went ahead of him as well. 6 WR's, 6 RB's and (TE's and QB's also, but I'll leave them out due to typical Fantasy hierarchy at skill positions in non SF leagues),.

So he was the 13th skill position player taken in the NFL draft, and yet was the 1.02 by most, in a class that had a talent like Barkley not existed, would have been considered the 1.01. Anything inside the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft I typically see as the realm in which people draft based on their own takes and intuitions in Fantasy, and that is a yearly occurrence.
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Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer/Runner Up

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, D Washington
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Crowder, Agholor, Sanu, , D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Clay

Taxi: Mims, Asiasi

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:37 pm

Hollywood Brown was the first WR drafted in the NFL Draft last year, and one of only two in the 1st round, but nobody was taking him as the first WR in rookie drafts and he was frequently lasting until the 2nd round.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Lord_Varys » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:19 pm

CMC, Mixon, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook were all taken after Leonard Fournette. The NFL seems to get it wrong as often as they get it right. Draft stock matters but only to a point. I really don't care if Taylor is the 2nd or 3rd RB off the board - that has zero bearing on where I draft him.

The team who drafts him does have some bearing to me, but generally I'm going to take talent over situation in rookie drafts. AJB value catered when the Titans took him, but talent finds a way more often than not.

Unless Swift goes to KC, JT is the one. Bigger, faster, stronger, more instinctual and dominant as a runner, and JT we know can catch. People are making this harder than it has to be.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby IZigUZag » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:24 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:33 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:15 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:20 am
If Taylor is NOT the 1st RB off the board in the NFL draft, does he lose his 1.01 status solely on that?
I think if Taylor is not one of the top skill position players off the board, then people should at least reconsider.

There's a relevant chance that Taylor goes behind 2 RBs and 5-6 WRs. It would be hard to anoint him as the clear 1.01 if that happens. At some point, NFL scouting has to align to some degree with rookie drafts.

That's not to say that we need to draft in order of the NFL though, but there's potentially better value to be had on paper if someone takes Taylor at 1.01 and someone like Dobbins or Swift is available at 1.04-1.06.
It does, to some degree, but again, it's typical for RB's to go ahead of WR's in Fantasy drafts, due to their value in most leagues. Guice, as I had used as an example, was widely considered 1.02 behind an all time type prospect in Barkley, despite being the 7th RB taken, and there were WR's that went ahead of him as well. 6 WR's, 6 RB's and (TE's and QB's also, but I'll leave them out due to typical Fantasy hierarchy at skill positions in non SF leagues),.

So he was the 13th skill position player taken in the NFL draft, and yet was the 1.02 by most, in a class that had a talent like Barkley not existed, would have been considered the 1.01. Anything inside the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft I typically see as the realm in which people draft based on their own takes and intuitions in Fantasy, and that is a yearly occurrence.
Draft capital is important, but it's not everything. I don't particularly care about the nominal 1.01 distinction in rookie drafts. In 2018, Saquon was the clear 1.01 in both the Fantasy community and the NFL. The next two running backs selected were Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, Ronald Jones, Kerryon Johnson, Derrius Guice.

The fantasy community's top 3 (from a talent perspective) were always Saquon, Chubb, Guice (who has been a disappointment due to injury, but has clearly been impressive when he does play).

I believe the media scouts are underrating Taylor, and he will be the first RB selected... but even if he's not , it wouldn't be the first time that draft capital didn't align with a players talent

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby PR0v3 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:25 pm

Lord_Varys wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:19 pm
CMC, Mixon, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook were all taken after Leonard Fournette. The NFL seems to get it wrong as often as they get it right. Draft stock matters but only to a point. I really don't care if Taylor is the 2nd or 3rd RB off the board - that has zero bearing on where I draft him.

The team who drafts him does have some bearing to me, but generally I'm going to take talent over situation in rookie drafts. AJB value catered when the Titans took him, but talent finds a way more often than not.

Unless Swift goes to KC, JT is the one. Bigger, faster, stronger, more instinctual and dominant as a runner, and JT we know can catch. People are making this harder than it has to be.
Fournette has a strong argument for being the second best RB of that group though. He has certainly done more than Cook and Mixon so far, from a fantasy and real life perspective, and was the feature component of a team that has gotten farther than anything Kamara and the Saints have done in the same time. The only guy with a clear edge also had very strong draft capital. Not really the best example there.
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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:51 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:37 pm
Hollywood Brown was the first WR drafted in the NFL Draft last year, and one of only two in the 1st round, but nobody was taking him as the first WR in rookie drafts and he was frequently lasting until the 2nd round.
Bad example. The dynasty community was off on Brown and shouldn't have been. He was mocked in the 2nd round before and after the draft. Meanwhile, the NFL had Brown pegged as the top WR in the class, despite his injury.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:58 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:33 pm
ee, but again, it's typical for RB's to go ahead of WR's in Fantasy drafts, due to their value in most leagues. Guice, as I had used as an example, was widely considered 1.02 behind an all time type prospect in Barkley, despite being the 7th RB taken, and there were WR's that went ahead of him as well. 6 WR's, 6 RB's and (TE's and QB's also, but I'll leave them out due to typical Fantasy hierarchy at skill positions in non SF leagues),.

So he was the 13th skill position player taken in the NFL draft, and yet was the 1.02 by most, in a class that had a talent like Barkley not existed, would have been considered the 1.01. Anything inside the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft I typically see as the realm in which people draft based on their own takes and intuitions in Fantasy, and that is a yearly occurrence.
I don't have an issue with RBs going ahead of WRs. I understand that's the best chance for people to get immediate value to flip after a season, if they choose to. I just don't see the value in chasing Taylor at the 1.01, if he's not clearly more talented, skilled, or in a better situation than the other RBs.

As far as the Guice example goes, maybe that's a reason why we should learn from history, even though Guice hasn't failed for a lack of talent.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:59 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:51 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:37 pm
Hollywood Brown was the first WR drafted in the NFL Draft last year, and one of only two in the 1st round, but nobody was taking him as the first WR in rookie drafts and he was frequently lasting until the 2nd round.
Bad example. The dynasty community was off on Brown and shouldn't have been. He was mocked in the 2nd round before and after the draft. Meanwhile, the NFL had Brown pegged as the top WR in the class, despite his injury.
It a good example of going too far off the NFL draft. People were too down on Hollywood.

Hollywood is also a good example of not taking the guy higher just because he had the better draft capital, within reason. Taking myself for the example, I always had AJB over Hollywood, and despite Hollywood going ahead of AJB, the draft capital was good enough for AJB that I still went with the player who I liked more. However, when Hollywood fell to the mid 2nd in my 12 team SF, I traded back in because I felt my league was undervaluing a player that should no longer be on the board, so I made a move to get the pick.
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Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer/Runner Up

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, D Washington
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Crowder, Agholor, Sanu, , D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Clay

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