Finding the Next Godwin

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby Blueboy » Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:02 pm

@FF, I do ultimately think that a combination of TEs and depth WRs kind of cannibalize the upside Gallup/Lamb, and that both of them are effective enough to also limit Amari.

That said, something like 90 targets wouldn't be out of the question. I think he has the talent to eclipse 1000 yards with those targets, especially in an offense with Cooper and Gallup drawing attention. That wouldn't be enough to bump his ADP up to Godwin levels, but I could see top 12.

12-team SF, PPR, IDP
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Wilson, Brees, Minshew, Winston, Rosen
RB: J. Taylor, CEH, Ingram, Dillon, Penny, Henderson
WR: Metcalf, Woods, AJG, Kirk, Hardman, Isabella, Campbell, Hamler, JJAW
TE: Andrews, Njoku, Asiasi, Moreau, Trautman

DL: J. Bosa, JJ Watt, J. Allen, Ferrell, Epinesa, Houston
LB: T. Edmunds, Kendricks, Mosley, T. Lewis, A. Williamson
DB: J. Adams, K. Neal, Amos, McDougald, Thornhill

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:07 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:33 am
Scenarios like Godwin don't present themselves often. I mentioned this in the Godwin thread in the summer, but this was his situation:

- Over 200 targets were freed up in Tampa Bay's offense following the departures of Humphries, Jackson, Rodgers, and someone else.

- Godwin posted elite separation numbers via Matt Harmon's Reception Perception. Godwin is a damn good route runner and could be on his way to becoming one of the league's premier route runners. To me, this is the biggest reason why he's playing at a high level.

- Bruce Arians consistently talked about using Godwin in some aspects as he did Larry Fitzgerald. Often coachspeak can be pointless, but this was pretty notable as it matched the skillset of Godwin.

So, find me a player who will have ample opportunity, can run routes at a high level, has a coach with a proven plan to help him succeed, and you'll find the next Chris Godwin.

Theoretically, I think Corey Davis could be that player if he was in an offense that actually was interested in using him. Since that's not the case, I'm not sure who it is. Christian Kirk is not a bad call. Curtis Samuel with a QB who's more accurate is someone to think about.
Cameron Giles wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:13 am
Think of a really talented route runner, who has a clear path to taking on a more significant workload, that could also be bumped even more by playing from behind regularly and/or not having a competent run game.
If we're going by this list I posted earlier, then Calvin Ridley is this year's Godwin.

Target opportunity? Check
Pass-first offense or likely to play from behind a lot? Check
Head Coach or OC with proven history of high-level receiver production? Check.
Good route runner? Check

Atlanta's offense does not have a wide range of receivers, their defense is still underwhelming on paper, and they led the league in pass attempts last year.

It's probably too late to buy reasonably though.

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby henry1jg » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:00 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:07 pm
If we're going by this list I posted earlier, then Calvin Ridley is this year's Godwin.

Target opportunity? Check
Pass-first offense or likely to play from behind a lot? Check
Head Coach or OC with proven history of high-level receiver production? Check.
Good route runner? Check

It's probably too late to buy reasonably though.
I believe I'm with CG on this one and I like his breakdown. Ridley has all the tools, has the offense and QB, and has the elite option on the other side to help keep attention off of him.

I'm not sure what a reasonable price would be for him though. I have 1.02 in my home league and would not move it for him. However, of I had the 1.03, I would def move it for Ridley. I've made quite a few offers for Ridley in my leagues but have yet to get any real traction, so I agree that his share holders also believe the breakout is coming.
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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby StripesOfKC » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:07 am

henry1jg wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:00 am
Cameron Giles wrote:
Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:07 pm
If we're going by this list I posted earlier, then Calvin Ridley is this year's Godwin.

Target opportunity? Check
Pass-first offense or likely to play from behind a lot? Check
Head Coach or OC with proven history of high-level receiver production? Check.
Good route runner? Check

It's probably too late to buy reasonably though.
I believe I'm with CG on this one and I like his breakdown. Ridley has all the tools, has the offense and QB, and has the elite option on the other side to help keep attention off of him.

I'm not sure what a reasonable price would be for him though. I have 1.02 in my home league and would not move it for him. However, of I had the 1.03, I would def move it for Ridley. I've made quite a few offers for Ridley in my leagues but have yet to get any real traction, so I agree that his share holders also believe the breakout is coming.
I think Ridley will continue to be really good but what's the track record on guys who were older rookies making the kind of leap Godwin did last year or Juju two years ago? Can't think of any examples off the top of my head
Team 1

8 Team 0.5 PPR
2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 D, 1 K
2019-20 Champion
QB: Burrow, Roethlisberger
RB: CEH, Jonathan Taylor
WR: AJ Brown (Out), DJ Moore, McLaurin
FLEX: Chark, Diontae
TE: Kittle
D: Steelers
K: Gould

Bench
QB: Daniel Jones, Darnold, Jordan Love
RB: Swift, Sony Michel (IR), Cohen (IR), Damien Harris, KeShawn Vaughn
WR: Justin Jefferson, Sutton (IR), Gallup, Pittman, Anthony Miller, Mims, Bryan Edwards, Parris Campbell (IR), Mooney, Gabe Davis
TE: Hockenson, Gesicki

2021: 2 1sts, 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 4th
2022: 3 1sts, 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 4th

Team 2

IDP Orphan 12 Team 1 QB PPR 0.5 Pt Per Comp, -0.5 Pt for Incomp
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Tua
RB: Mixon, CEH, Michel, James White
WR: Lockett, Gallup, Slayton, Justin Jefferson, Reagor, Mims
TE: Gesicki, Geordert

DL: Chris Jones, Grady Jarrett, Jeffrey Simmons
LB: Brian Burns, Logan Wilson, Jordyn Brooks, K'Lavon Chiasson
DB: Marlon Humphrey, Eddie Jackson, Chuck Clark, Xavier McKinney, Kyle Dugger

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby TheNuts » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:27 am

I am really high on Boyd. I think Burrow has as much potential as any qb to come into the league, and Boyd plays the slot which Burrow utilized a lot in college. Boyd has put up some very good numbers with some pretty awful qb play the last two years. I have no fear of Higgins since I am not a fan of him as an NFL prospect.
12 team ppr 4 point pass td

Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots

14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%

Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle

12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr

Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample

20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard

Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby StripesOfKC » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:41 am

TheNuts wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:27 am
I am really high on Boyd. I think Burrow has as much potential as any qb to come into the league, and Boyd plays the slot which Burrow utilized a lot in college. Boyd has put up some very good numbers with some pretty awful qb play the last two years. I have no fear of Higgins since I am not a fan of him as an NFL prospect.
I see more Keenan Allen-lite than Godwin in Boyd.

Not sure he has the ceiling/athleticism for that kind of mid to high WR1 status

I do love him as a WR2--low WR2 for now and high WR2 when Burrow gets acclimated (could be immediate)--for a very long time though

Was trying to buy him late last season
Team 1

8 Team 0.5 PPR
2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 D, 1 K
2019-20 Champion
QB: Burrow, Roethlisberger
RB: CEH, Jonathan Taylor
WR: AJ Brown (Out), DJ Moore, McLaurin
FLEX: Chark, Diontae
TE: Kittle
D: Steelers
K: Gould

Bench
QB: Daniel Jones, Darnold, Jordan Love
RB: Swift, Sony Michel (IR), Cohen (IR), Damien Harris, KeShawn Vaughn
WR: Justin Jefferson, Sutton (IR), Gallup, Pittman, Anthony Miller, Mims, Bryan Edwards, Parris Campbell (IR), Mooney, Gabe Davis
TE: Hockenson, Gesicki

2021: 2 1sts, 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 4th
2022: 3 1sts, 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 4th

Team 2

IDP Orphan 12 Team 1 QB PPR 0.5 Pt Per Comp, -0.5 Pt for Incomp
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Tua
RB: Mixon, CEH, Michel, James White
WR: Lockett, Gallup, Slayton, Justin Jefferson, Reagor, Mims
TE: Gesicki, Geordert

DL: Chris Jones, Grady Jarrett, Jeffrey Simmons
LB: Brian Burns, Logan Wilson, Jordyn Brooks, K'Lavon Chiasson
DB: Marlon Humphrey, Eddie Jackson, Chuck Clark, Xavier McKinney, Kyle Dugger

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:26 am

TheNuts wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:27 am
I am really high on Boyd. I think Burrow has as much potential as any qb to come into the league, and Boyd plays the slot which Burrow utilized a lot in college. Boyd has put up some very good numbers with some pretty awful qb play the last two years. I have no fear of Higgins since I am not a fan of him as an NFL prospect.
I also like Boyd, but I don’t think it makes sense to say [player going into his 5th year] is the next [player who ascended to WR1 status in his 3rd year]. Boyd’s great, I love him with Burrow, and I’m buying everywhere. I just don’t think calling him “the Next Chris Godwin” makes sense.
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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby Sriracha » Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:37 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:26 am
TheNuts wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:27 am
I am really high on Boyd. I think Burrow has as much potential as any qb to come into the league, and Boyd plays the slot which Burrow utilized a lot in college. Boyd has put up some very good numbers with some pretty awful qb play the last two years. I have no fear of Higgins since I am not a fan of him as an NFL prospect.
I also like Boyd, but I don’t think it makes sense to say [player going into his 5th year] is the next [player who ascended to WR1 status in his 3rd year]. Boyd’s great, I love him with Burrow, and I’m buying everywhere. I just don’t think calling him “the Next Chris Godwin” makes sense.
To be fair, it doesn't make much sense to call Ridley the next Godwin, either.

You see this every year; extreme outlier emerges in the football season (DJ Chark, Philip Lindsay) and then you're surrounded with who's the next extreme outlier questions.. when the odds are there isn't one. If we have another season we could very well be talking about who's the next Gardner Minshew? Or who's the next Hakeem Butler :lol:

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:11 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:37 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:26 am
TheNuts wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:27 am
I am really high on Boyd. I think Burrow has as much potential as any qb to come into the league, and Boyd plays the slot which Burrow utilized a lot in college. Boyd has put up some very good numbers with some pretty awful qb play the last two years. I have no fear of Higgins since I am not a fan of him as an NFL prospect.
I also like Boyd, but I don’t think it makes sense to say [player going into his 5th year] is the next [player who ascended to WR1 status in his 3rd year]. Boyd’s great, I love him with Burrow, and I’m buying everywhere. I just don’t think calling him “the Next Chris Godwin” makes sense.
To be fair, it doesn't make much sense to call Ridley the next Godwin, either.

You see this every year; extreme outlier emerges in the football season (DJ Chark, Philip Lindsay) and then you're surrounded with who's the next extreme outlier questions.. when the odds are there isn't one. If we have another season we could very well be talking about who's the next Gardner Minshew? Or who's the next Hakeem Butler :lol:
Agree wholeheartedly, but it's the off-season and this is a decent distraction. Speaking of:

DJ Chark- Denzel Mims
Philip Lindsay- Raymond Calais
Gardner Minshew- Tanner Morgan (University of Minnesota)
Hakeem Butler- Collin Johnson?
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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby Sriracha » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:51 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:11 pm

DJ Chark- Denzel Mims
Philip Lindsay- Raymond Calais
Gardner Minshew- Tanner Morgan (University of Minnesota)
Hakeem Butler- Collin Johnson?
I meant to use them more as example of what we might be talking about after the 2020 season (Minshew having a Tony Romo like breakout, Hakeem Butler having a DJ Chark like break out)

I like the Raymond Calais pick.

George Kittle - Noah Fant
Ryan Tannehill - Marcus Mariota
Aaron Jones - Anthony McFarland
Dalvin Cook - Derrius Guice

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:53 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:37 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:26 am
TheNuts wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:27 am
I am really high on Boyd. I think Burrow has as much potential as any qb to come into the league, and Boyd plays the slot which Burrow utilized a lot in college. Boyd has put up some very good numbers with some pretty awful qb play the last two years. I have no fear of Higgins since I am not a fan of him as an NFL prospect.
I also like Boyd, but I don’t think it makes sense to say [player going into his 5th year] is the next [player who ascended to WR1 status in his 3rd year]. Boyd’s great, I love him with Burrow, and I’m buying everywhere. I just don’t think calling him “the Next Chris Godwin” makes sense.
To be fair, it doesn't make much sense to call Ridley the next Godwin, either.

You see this every year; extreme outlier emerges in the football season (DJ Chark, Philip Lindsay) and then you're surrounded with who's the next extreme outlier questions.. when the odds are there isn't one. If we have another season we could very well be talking about who's the next Gardner Minshew? Or who's the next Hakeem Butler :lol:
But, Godwin wasn't an outlier. He was a very popular breakout candidate, for essentially the same reasons Ridley is this upcoming season.

I think predicting something like Chark is harder, as a second year breakout. That definitely falls more in the outlier category.

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby StripesOfKC » Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:06 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:51 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:11 pm

DJ Chark- Denzel Mims
Philip Lindsay- Raymond Calais
Gardner Minshew- Tanner Morgan (University of Minnesota)
Hakeem Butler- Collin Johnson?
I meant to use them more as example of what we might be talking about after the 2020 season (Minshew having a Tony Romo like breakout, Hakeem Butler having a DJ Chark like break out)

I like the Raymond Calais pick.

George Kittle - Noah Fant
Ryan Tannehill - Marcus Mariota
Aaron Jones - Anthony McFarland
Dalvin Cook - Derrius Guice
Mariota sucks man. He got replaced for a reason and frankly should have been replaced sooner. The 2017 and 2018 Titans teams were wasted by him. Watching him go into Foxborough in the divisional round in 2018 has to be one of the most boring, pathetic playoff games of all time--had me furious that my Chiefs somehow choked to that bum

If Dalton had gone elsewhere he'd be a better pick for a Tannehill like trajectory.
Stupid Bears for taking f--cking Foles instead

Mims Chark is possible, though I think Mims has the opportunity to at least produce somewhat as a rookie.

McFarland as Jones is a good one. Thought of as too small to be a lead back, but has opportunity seemingly despite day 3 capital.

I think Morgan will have a Lock-like trajectory and be a 2nd round pick in the real NFL Draft though. Not enough to be Minshew.

Also gonna disagree with Fant as Kittle. He's talented but part of Kittle's uniqueness is the incredible blocker he is and how he is the top pass catching option on one of the league's best teams. Don't think Fant has that potential



With that said back to Godwin--he was an analytic darling with good draft capital headed into his 3rd year after finishing as a high WR3 with Desean Jackson (one of the two guys ahead of him on the depth chart in 2018) gone. Not an outlier at all IMO
Team 1

8 Team 0.5 PPR
2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 D, 1 K
2019-20 Champion
QB: Burrow, Roethlisberger
RB: CEH, Jonathan Taylor
WR: AJ Brown (Out), DJ Moore, McLaurin
FLEX: Chark, Diontae
TE: Kittle
D: Steelers
K: Gould

Bench
QB: Daniel Jones, Darnold, Jordan Love
RB: Swift, Sony Michel (IR), Cohen (IR), Damien Harris, KeShawn Vaughn
WR: Justin Jefferson, Sutton (IR), Gallup, Pittman, Anthony Miller, Mims, Bryan Edwards, Parris Campbell (IR), Mooney, Gabe Davis
TE: Hockenson, Gesicki

2021: 2 1sts, 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 4th
2022: 3 1sts, 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 4th

Team 2

IDP Orphan 12 Team 1 QB PPR 0.5 Pt Per Comp, -0.5 Pt for Incomp
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Tua
RB: Mixon, CEH, Michel, James White
WR: Lockett, Gallup, Slayton, Justin Jefferson, Reagor, Mims
TE: Gesicki, Geordert

DL: Chris Jones, Grady Jarrett, Jeffrey Simmons
LB: Brian Burns, Logan Wilson, Jordyn Brooks, K'Lavon Chiasson
DB: Marlon Humphrey, Eddie Jackson, Chuck Clark, Xavier McKinney, Kyle Dugger

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby Sriracha » Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:13 pm

StripesOfKC wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:06 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:51 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:11 pm

DJ Chark- Denzel Mims
Philip Lindsay- Raymond Calais
Gardner Minshew- Tanner Morgan (University of Minnesota)
Hakeem Butler- Collin Johnson?
I meant to use them more as example of what we might be talking about after the 2020 season (Minshew having a Tony Romo like breakout, Hakeem Butler having a DJ Chark like break out)

I like the Raymond Calais pick.

George Kittle - Noah Fant
Ryan Tannehill - Marcus Mariota
Aaron Jones - Anthony McFarland
Dalvin Cook - Derrius Guice
Mariota sucks man. He got replaced for a reason and frankly should have been replaced sooner. The 2017 and 2018 Titans teams were wasted by him. Watching him go into Foxborough in the divisional round in 2018 has to be one of the most boring, pathetic playoff games of all time--had me furious that my Chiefs somehow choked to that bum

If Dalton had gone elsewhere he'd be a better pick for a Tannehill like trajectory.
Stupid Bears for taking f--cking Foles instead

Mims Chark is possible, though I think Mims has the opportunity to at least produce somewhat as a rookie.

McFarland as Jones is a good one. Thought of as too small to be a lead back, but has opportunity seemingly despite day 3 capital.

I think Morgan will have a Lock-like trajectory and be a 2nd round pick in the real NFL Draft though. Not enough to be Minshew.

Also gonna disagree with Fant as Kittle. He's talented but part of Kittle's uniqueness is the incredible blocker he is and how he is the top pass catching option on one of the league's best teams. Don't think Fant has that potential



With that said back to Godwin--he was an analytic darling with good draft capital headed into his 3rd year after finishing as a high WR3 with Desean Jackson (one of the two guys ahead of him on the depth chart in 2018) gone. Not an outlier at all IMO
You can poke holes in any of these players which is reflected in their ADPs. :lol:

That's exactly the argument many people made against Tannehill when he came into TEN, Fant is a much better blocker than people give him credit for and was on the field more often than Kittle was his first two seasons (which is why blocking prowess would matter). I don't think his fantasy ceiling is as high as Kittle's was in 2018, but I think it's possible he's a similar talent dealing with more target competition.

Godwin having success as the perceived WR2 on his offense isn't the outlier; becoming the #2 WR in ppg in fantasy is the outlier.

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby StripesOfKC » Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:27 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:13 pm
StripesOfKC wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:06 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:51 pm


I meant to use them more as example of what we might be talking about after the 2020 season (Minshew having a Tony Romo like breakout, Hakeem Butler having a DJ Chark like break out)

I like the Raymond Calais pick.

George Kittle - Noah Fant
Ryan Tannehill - Marcus Mariota
Aaron Jones - Anthony McFarland
Dalvin Cook - Derrius Guice
Mariota sucks man. He got replaced for a reason and frankly should have been replaced sooner. The 2017 and 2018 Titans teams were wasted by him. Watching him go into Foxborough in the divisional round in 2018 has to be one of the most boring, pathetic playoff games of all time--had me furious that my Chiefs somehow choked to that bum

If Dalton had gone elsewhere he'd be a better pick for a Tannehill like trajectory.
Stupid Bears for taking f--cking Foles instead

Mims Chark is possible, though I think Mims has the opportunity to at least produce somewhat as a rookie.

McFarland as Jones is a good one. Thought of as too small to be a lead back, but has opportunity seemingly despite day 3 capital.

I think Morgan will have a Lock-like trajectory and be a 2nd round pick in the real NFL Draft though. Not enough to be Minshew.

Also gonna disagree with Fant as Kittle. He's talented but part of Kittle's uniqueness is the incredible blocker he is and how he is the top pass catching option on one of the league's best teams. Don't think Fant has that potential



With that said back to Godwin--he was an analytic darling with good draft capital headed into his 3rd year after finishing as a high WR3 with Desean Jackson (one of the two guys ahead of him on the depth chart in 2018) gone. Not an outlier at all IMO
You can poke holes in any of these players which is reflected in their ADPs. :lol:

That's exactly the argument many people made against Tannehill when he came into TEN, Fant is a much better blocker than people give him credit for and was on the field more often than Kittle was his first two seasons (which is why blocking prowess would matter). I don't think his fantasy ceiling is as high as Kittle's was in 2018, but I think it's possible he's a similar talent dealing with more target competition.

Godwin having success as the perceived WR2 on his offense isn't the outlier; becoming the #2 WR in ppg in fantasy is the outlier.
Fair enough: I still think the Titans teams in 2017 and 2018 had more talent than anything Tanny had in Miami and with Vrabel better coaching as well than Gase and Philbin, and that Kittle being the type of TE you can tailor an entire offense around is hard to recreate for Fant

But to the subject: I don't think anyone citing a player is expecting them to be the WR2 overall--just a low WR1.

I still think with all the Cowboys vacated targets Gallup would have been a perfect pick for this if the 49ers had just taken Lamb. He even finished right around where Godwin did in 2019 and had a similar high volume passing offense with a pass happy coach incoming.

As of now I'll say Ridley fits best but I don't see an older player like him taking the kind of jump Godwin did or Julio giving up his alpha role a easily, especially considering the history he and Matt Ryan have--and also have to consider that a lot of the vacated targets are Hooper's and they did bring in Hurst
Team 1

8 Team 0.5 PPR
2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 D, 1 K
2019-20 Champion
QB: Burrow, Roethlisberger
RB: CEH, Jonathan Taylor
WR: AJ Brown (Out), DJ Moore, McLaurin
FLEX: Chark, Diontae
TE: Kittle
D: Steelers
K: Gould

Bench
QB: Daniel Jones, Darnold, Jordan Love
RB: Swift, Sony Michel (IR), Cohen (IR), Damien Harris, KeShawn Vaughn
WR: Justin Jefferson, Sutton (IR), Gallup, Pittman, Anthony Miller, Mims, Bryan Edwards, Parris Campbell (IR), Mooney, Gabe Davis
TE: Hockenson, Gesicki

2021: 2 1sts, 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 4th
2022: 3 1sts, 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 4th

Team 2

IDP Orphan 12 Team 1 QB PPR 0.5 Pt Per Comp, -0.5 Pt for Incomp
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Tua
RB: Mixon, CEH, Michel, James White
WR: Lockett, Gallup, Slayton, Justin Jefferson, Reagor, Mims
TE: Gesicki, Geordert

DL: Chris Jones, Grady Jarrett, Jeffrey Simmons
LB: Brian Burns, Logan Wilson, Jordyn Brooks, K'Lavon Chiasson
DB: Marlon Humphrey, Eddie Jackson, Chuck Clark, Xavier McKinney, Kyle Dugger

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby Sriracha » Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:57 pm

StripesOfKC wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:27 pm
As of now I'll say Ridley fits best but I don't see an older player like him taking the kind of jump Godwin did or Julio giving up his alpha role a easily, especially considering the history he and Matt Ryan have--and also have to consider that a lot of the vacated targets are Hooper's and they did bring in Hurst
He fits the situation Godwin was in, but he's currently being valued too highly for 2 reasons:

1. I think his ceiling is not nearly as high despite him being valued where Godwin was last season based on ADP... Godwin put up elite numbers whenever he had a starting role in that offense, as early as his rookie year when he took over for an injured DJax and outproduced Ridley despite being as low as 5th on the pecking order in TB vs 3rd for Ridley who was blocked somewhat by a TE. So based on their inherent talent levels, I don't think he should be valued at the same ADP Godwin went at last season based on their floors being similar and different ceilings.

2. ATL's defense has degraded after key injuries to Keanu Neal and Dion Jones the past two years. Their defense isn't actually that bad when those playmakers are healthy. Maybe they get injured again, but it's also possible they don't which would limit passing volume.