Finding the Next Godwin

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby kmbryant09 » Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:32 am

djeternal2 wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:47 pm
kmbryant09 wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:34 pm
@ djeternal2 - here's what I wrote about Godwin's situation back in June 2019:

"What I found most interesting was his similarities (both as a player and the team) to JuJu Smith-Schuster and the Pittsburgh offense from 2 years ago - check out the comparison between the 2017 Steelers and 2018 Bucs, and the corresponding seasons between JuJu & Godwin:

2017 Steelers: 383 - 589 (65.0%) / 4,490 yards / 29 TDs / 15 INTs
2018 Tampa: 408 - 625 (65.3%) / 5,350 yards / 36 TDs / 26 (!) INTs

2017 JuJu: 58 catches / 917 yards / 15.8ypc / 7 TDs
2018 Godwin: 59 catches / 842 yards / 14.3ypc / 7 TDs

2017 Steelers went on to lose 190 primary targets that season (106 from Bell & 84 from Bryant), opening up more of an opportunity for JuJu that helped lead to his breakout 2018 season.

2018 Tampa are losing 180 primary targets this season (105 from Humphries & 74 from D-Jax), potentially opening up more of an opportunity for Godwin and his potential breakout 2019 season.

I don't think Godwin is quite as talented as JuJu is as a player and I don't think it's fair to expect a breakout to the same degree that JuJu just experienced. But Evans can still be the #1 alpha WR, and Godwin can finish as a high-end WR #2 or even low-end WR #1 - both of those things can be true. Just based on that offense, the situation, competition for targets, and likely game script all season, I think it's very possible that Godwin sees 130 targets, and based on last year's efficiency measures, he would parlay those targets into 80 / 1,150 / 9, good enough for 213 .5PPR points, which translates to the WR 11 - 13 range based on last year."

I gotta say, I didn't expect to be quite as spot on as I was. He parlayed 121 targets into 86 / 1,300 / 9 (in just 14 games) and finished as a WR #1.

Say what you want about vacated targets. I certainly don't use it as a be-all-end-all. But I really think it can help identify breakout players in terms of fantasy production. Assuming the QB & offensive system remains in place, a team will throw the ball around the same number of times, generally speaking. And at some point, the QB is going to funnel targets to 1, 2 or 3 major pieces on the offense. Not sure how someone could de-bunk the idea that a player that is in-line to see an increase in targets due to a lack of competition isn't in a better situation to succeed.
Unfortunately I'm unable to find a place to re-listen to the podcast. It was Dynasty Crossroads from July 26th of last year. Everywhere I looked including here on DLF only goes back to the first show of this year. Maybe someone from DLF can pop a link to it in this thread. He went through some data and there's no correlation between a player leaving and it automatically means someone else naturally gets those targets. In general if the offense & QB stay the same the targets just get spread around to the players there. For an example of that look at 2016 Redskins to the 2017 version. Godwin & JuJu are talented players therefore they commanded those targets. They didn't just get them because DJax/Humphries & Bell left. And I would argue they would have commanded those targets regardless if the other players had been there or not.
Why did they each average 3-4 more targets PER GAME from the prior year?

Sure, we have to give some credit to player development. But I think we'd be idiots not to also give credit to a whopping 12 vacated targets per game as well.
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: K. Murray, B. Mayfield, K. Cousins, D. Lock
RB: M. Mack, P. Lindsay, D. Johnson, C. Edmonds, T. Pollard, B. Scott, G. Bernard, D. Thompson
WR: C. Godwin, O. Beckham Jr., K. Allen, A. Robinson, C. Kirk, Di. Johnson, Z. Pascal, J. Kumerow
TE: E. Engram, D. Waller, I. Smith Jr., J. Hollister

2020 Picks: 1.04 / 1.05 / 3.07 / 3.08 / 4.06
2021 Picks: (2x) 1, 3, 4

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby Plank » Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:47 pm

LSU's Justin Jefferson

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