Dynasty League Football Forum

Not worth chasing the next [player] most of the time (in my opinion). Evaluate the merits of the player and don't assume they will follow the same path as Godwin.

I do love Ridley, though. If we're just talking about risers, Ridley is the perfect one to me.

I forget what Godwin was going for this time last year... I want to say 5th round-ish... similar players in that range:

Kirk- Murray makes 2nd year leap w/ Kirk as #1WR. Feels like a reasonable assumption

Deebo- becomes top 2 option in the offense (seems like we saw this at the end of the year). SF skews closer to mean on Pass/Run ratio. Also seems reasonable.

Gallup-- assumes Cooper leaves making his path to targets much easier. Difference between TB and DAL is TB didnt need to feed a RB. I don't think Cooper/Gallup can be Godwin/Evans. Cooper needs to leave for this to happen.

Portsmouth Spartans wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:12 pm I forget what Godwin was going for this time last year... I want to say 5th round-ish... similar players in that range:

Kirk- Murray makes 2nd year leap w/ Kirk as #1WR. Feels like a reasonable assumption

Deebo- becomes top 2 option in the offense (seems like we saw this at the end of the year). SF skews closer to mean on Pass/Run ratio. Also seems reasonable.

Gallup-- assumes Cooper leaves making his path to targets much easier. Difference between TB and DAL is TB didnt need to feed a RB. I don't think Cooper/Gallup can be Godwin/Evans. Cooper needs to leave for this to happen.

Regardless of Cooper the Cowboys coach will incorporate a lot more WC type plays like GB’s offense and this bodes well for Gallup’s skill set.

Not sure he approaches WR1A but expect FF progression.

Ice wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:03 pm

Portsmouth Spartans wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:12 pm I forget what Godwin was going for this time last year... I want to say 5th round-ish... similar players in that range:

Kirk- Murray makes 2nd year leap w/ Kirk as #1WR. Feels like a reasonable assumption

Deebo- becomes top 2 option in the offense (seems like we saw this at the end of the year). SF skews closer to mean on Pass/Run ratio. Also seems reasonable.

Gallup-- assumes Cooper leaves making his path to targets much easier. Difference between TB and DAL is TB didnt need to feed a RB. I don't think Cooper/Gallup can be Godwin/Evans. Cooper needs to leave for this to happen.

Regardless of Cooper the Cowboys coach will incorporate a lot more WC type plays like GB’s offense and this bodes well for Gallup’s skill set.

Not sure he approaches WR1A but expect FF progression.

I like him and do expect progression, I just don’t think he can be the “next Godwin” with Cooper there. I’d bet on Kirk of the 3

Godwin made it to top 5 status in a pass first offense.

Guys like Sutton just may not have the qb to tet him there, but I do like him.being a high end wr2/low end wr1.

AJB, will be a popular mention, but run first team

There is a pretty good answer here, and one that has been talked about a bit already. Its Gallup. He had very similar averages in volume to Cooper, and he can be had for far less. I hope they keep Cooper, because IMO Gallup has a good chance at out performing him and being a top 10 WR.

kmbryant09 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:22 am Here are a few more guys I'd throw out there:
C. Ridley - He fits Godwin's profile very similarly: his team's 2nd pass-catcher entering his 3rd season on a pass-heavy team, slated to lose a large number of targets in the off-season (Hooper & Freeman combined for 167 targets. He's talented, but the question remains can he perform consistently and not get banged up?

M. Gallup - Again, fits Godwin's profile very similarly as his team's 2nd pass-catcher entering his 3rd season on a team slated to lose a large number of targets (Cobb + Witten combined for 166 targets). He's talented, but might be closer to his ceiling than his floor assuming Dallas retains Cooper on a long-term deal.

Influx of additional targets definitely help in finding these guys.
There are guys improving their draft stock (moving up a couple of rounds) and then there is Godwin (moving up from like 5th round to top 5 WR). For a Godwin like ascent there needs to be a lot more targets available. Like when Juju became a WR1 the team lost 160+ targets. Same for Bucs. If 160 targets are taken away and he lost 20-30 catches, Godwin would still be great, but wouldn't have the stats he has now.
Not saying they have the same upside, but Ridley and Gallup that kmbryant mentioned seemed to fit the mold.

Straycatz2 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:48 am

kmbryant09 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:22 am Here are a few more guys I'd throw out there:
C. Ridley - He fits Godwin's profile very similarly: his team's 2nd pass-catcher entering his 3rd season on a pass-heavy team, slated to lose a large number of targets in the off-season (Hooper & Freeman combined for 167 targets. He's talented, but the question remains can he perform consistently and not get banged up?

M. Gallup - Again, fits Godwin's profile very similarly as his team's 2nd pass-catcher entering his 3rd season on a team slated to lose a large number of targets (Cobb + Witten combined for 166 targets). He's talented, but might be closer to his ceiling than his floor assuming Dallas retains Cooper on a long-term deal.

Influx of additional targets definitely help in finding these guys.
There are guys improving their draft stock (moving up a couple of rounds) and then there is Godwin (moving up from like 5th round to top 5 WR). For a Godwin like ascent there needs to be a lot more targets available. Like when Juju became a WR1 the team lost 160+ targets. Same for Bucs. If 160 targets are taken away and he lost 20-30 catches, Godwin would still be great, but wouldn't have the stats he has now.
Not saying they have the same upside, but Ridley and Gallup that kmbryant mentioned seemed to fit the mold.

Yep, vacated targets is something I pay close attention to and helped convince me that Godwin was worth the hype last off-season. I actually compared his situation last year to JuJu's situation the year prior, and how many vacated targets were available in both situations.

I think this makes Ridley a screaming buy, to be honest. I've never been a huge fan of his game, but there's no denying he's produced big numbers when he's gotten heavy volume - and it sure looks like he's going to get heavy volume moving forward.

kmbryant09 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:06 am

Straycatz2 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:48 am

kmbryant09 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:22 am Here are a few more guys I'd throw out there:
C. Ridley - He fits Godwin's profile very similarly: his team's 2nd pass-catcher entering his 3rd season on a pass-heavy team, slated to lose a large number of targets in the off-season (Hooper & Freeman combined for 167 targets. He's talented, but the question remains can he perform consistently and not get banged up?

M. Gallup - Again, fits Godwin's profile very similarly as his team's 2nd pass-catcher entering his 3rd season on a team slated to lose a large number of targets (Cobb + Witten combined for 166 targets). He's talented, but might be closer to his ceiling than his floor assuming Dallas retains Cooper on a long-term deal.

Influx of additional targets definitely help in finding these guys.
There are guys improving their draft stock (moving up a couple of rounds) and then there is Godwin (moving up from like 5th round to top 5 WR). For a Godwin like ascent there needs to be a lot more targets available. Like when Juju became a WR1 the team lost 160+ targets. Same for Bucs. If 160 targets are taken away and he lost 20-30 catches, Godwin would still be great, but wouldn't have the stats he has now.
Not saying they have the same upside, but Ridley and Gallup that kmbryant mentioned seemed to fit the mold.

Yep, vacated targets is something I pay close attention to and helped convince me that Godwin was worth the hype last off-season. I actually compared his situation last year to JuJu's situation the year prior, and how many vacated targets were available in both situations.

I think this makes Ridley a screaming buy, to be honest. I've never been a huge fan of his game, but there's no denying he's produced big numbers when he's gotten heavy volume - and it sure looks like he's going to get heavy volume moving forward.

I agree with these takes, I've never thought Ridley was anything special but even I'm interested in buying looking into the 2020 season.

kmbryant09 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:06 am


Yep, vacated targets is something I pay close attention to and helped convince me that Godwin was worth the hype last off-season. I actually compared his situation last year to JuJu's situation the year prior, and how many vacated targets were available in both situations.

I think this makes Ridley a screaming buy, to be honest. I've never been a huge fan of his game, but there's no denying he's produced big numbers when he's gotten heavy volume - and it sure looks like he's going to get heavy volume moving forward.

So are you saying you were comparing Godwin's 2019 to JuJu's 2018? If you referring to Bell being gone, I'd push back on that. The Steelers had almost 100 more attempts in 2018 than 2017. Conner/Samuels had 100 targets in 18 compared to Bell's 106 in 17. Peter Howard (@pahowdy) did a whole podcast on the myth of vacated targets last August or September iirc. What he came up and I completely agree with is talented guys will command targets, they aren't given to them just because player x went to another team. Player x "takes" his targets with him. He doesn't leave them at the door as he leaves the team.

@ djeternal2 - here's what I wrote about Godwin's situation back in June 2019:

"What I found most interesting was his similarities (both as a player and the team) to JuJu Smith-Schuster and the Pittsburgh offense from 2 years ago - check out the comparison between the 2017 Steelers and 2018 Bucs, and the corresponding seasons between JuJu & Godwin:

2017 Steelers: 383 - 589 (65.0%) / 4,490 yards / 29 TDs / 15 INTs
2018 Tampa: 408 - 625 (65.3%) / 5,350 yards / 36 TDs / 26 (!) INTs

2017 JuJu: 58 catches / 917 yards / 15.8ypc / 7 TDs
2018 Godwin: 59 catches / 842 yards / 14.3ypc / 7 TDs

2017 Steelers went on to lose 190 primary targets that season (106 from Bell & 84 from Bryant), opening up more of an opportunity for JuJu that helped lead to his breakout 2018 season.

2018 Tampa are losing 180 primary targets this season (105 from Humphries & 74 from D-Jax), potentially opening up more of an opportunity for Godwin and his potential breakout 2019 season.

I don't think Godwin is quite as talented as JuJu is as a player and I don't think it's fair to expect a breakout to the same degree that JuJu just experienced. But Evans can still be the #1 alpha WR, and Godwin can finish as a high-end WR #2 or even low-end WR #1 - both of those things can be true. Just based on that offense, the situation, competition for targets, and likely game script all season, I think it's very possible that Godwin sees 130 targets, and based on last year's efficiency measures, he would parlay those targets into 80 / 1,150 / 9, good enough for 213 .5PPR points, which translates to the WR 11 - 13 range based on last year."

I gotta say, I didn't expect to be quite as spot on as I was. He parlayed 121 targets into 86 / 1,300 / 9 (in just 14 games) and finished as a WR #1.

Say what you want about vacated targets. I certainly don't use it as a be-all-end-all. But I really think it can help identify breakout players in terms of fantasy production. Assuming the QB & offensive system remains in place, a team will throw the ball around the same number of times, generally speaking. And at some point, the QB is going to funnel targets to 1, 2 or 3 major pieces on the offense. Not sure how someone could de-bunk the idea that a player that is in-line to see an increase in targets due to a lack of competition isn't in a better situation to succeed.

djeternal2 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 21, 2020 6:35 pm Peter Howard (@pahowdy) did a whole podcast on the myth of vacated targets last August or September iirc. What he came up and I completely agree with is talented guys will command targets, they aren't given to them just because player x went to another team. Player x "takes" his targets with him. He doesn't leave them at the door as he leaves the team.

Haven't we been having 10 page discussions on how all the Alabama WR dominator rating is low because there is so much talent on the team and the ball is spread around? Will Devonta Smith not have a chance to drastically improve his DR next year?

If he does, it's absolutely partially because of vacated targets.

I agree talented players will command more targets but if there are more targets to go around then they will have a chance to grab those extra targets as well.

kmbryant09 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:34 pm @ djeternal2 - here's what I wrote about Godwin's situation back in June 2019:

"What I found most interesting was his similarities (both as a player and the team) to JuJu Smith-Schuster and the Pittsburgh offense from 2 years ago - check out the comparison between the 2017 Steelers and 2018 Bucs, and the corresponding seasons between JuJu & Godwin:

2017 Steelers: 383 - 589 (65.0%) / 4,490 yards / 29 TDs / 15 INTs
2018 Tampa: 408 - 625 (65.3%) / 5,350 yards / 36 TDs / 26 (!) INTs

2017 JuJu: 58 catches / 917 yards / 15.8ypc / 7 TDs
2018 Godwin: 59 catches / 842 yards / 14.3ypc / 7 TDs

2017 Steelers went on to lose 190 primary targets that season (106 from Bell & 84 from Bryant), opening up more of an opportunity for JuJu that helped lead to his breakout 2018 season.

2018 Tampa are losing 180 primary targets this season (105 from Humphries & 74 from D-Jax), potentially opening up more of an opportunity for Godwin and his potential breakout 2019 season.

I don't think Godwin is quite as talented as JuJu is as a player and I don't think it's fair to expect a breakout to the same degree that JuJu just experienced. But Evans can still be the #1 alpha WR, and Godwin can finish as a high-end WR #2 or even low-end WR #1 - both of those things can be true. Just based on that offense, the situation, competition for targets, and likely game script all season, I think it's very possible that Godwin sees 130 targets, and based on last year's efficiency measures, he would parlay those targets into 80 / 1,150 / 9, good enough for 213 .5PPR points, which translates to the WR 11 - 13 range based on last year."

I gotta say, I didn't expect to be quite as spot on as I was. He parlayed 121 targets into 86 / 1,300 / 9 (in just 14 games) and finished as a WR #1.

Say what you want about vacated targets. I certainly don't use it as a be-all-end-all. But I really think it can help identify breakout players in terms of fantasy production. Assuming the QB & offensive system remains in place, a team will throw the ball around the same number of times, generally speaking. And at some point, the QB is going to funnel targets to 1, 2 or 3 major pieces on the offense. Not sure how someone could de-bunk the idea that a player that is in-line to see an increase in targets due to a lack of competition isn't in a better situation to succeed.

Unfortunately I'm unable to find a place to re-listen to the podcast. It was Dynasty Crossroads from July 26th of last year. Everywhere I looked including here on DLF only goes back to the first show of this year. Maybe someone from DLF can pop a link to it in this thread. He went through some data and there's no correlation between a player leaving and it automatically means someone else naturally gets those targets. In general if the offense & QB stay the same the targets just get spread around to the players there. For an example of that look at 2016 Redskins to the 2017 version. Godwin & JuJu are talented players therefore they commanded those targets. They didn't just get them because DJax/Humphries & Bell left. And I would argue they would have commanded those targets regardless if the other players had been there or not.

I saw someone someone comp Brandon Aiyuk from Arizona to Godwin. I know very little about him and honestly haven't dug very deep into Godwin so I can't personally compare the two. But from what I've read Aiyuk could be a steal in the draft, keep an eye on where he lands. Maybe if he landed somewhere like Green Bay/NoLA/Hou he could be the guy your looking for.

Think of a really talented route runner, who has a clear path to taking on a more significant workload, that could also be bumped even more by playing from behind regularly and/or not having a competent run game.

James is still trying to find him