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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:47 am
by thebeast
I like the Kirk call. I would also throw N Keal Harry out there. He is being massively overlooked and there is a very weak depth chart this year and next there. There are also all the Gronk and Hogan targets to be had. Harry is likely cheap right now.

Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:31 am
by StripesOfKC
thebeast wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:47 am
I like the Kirk call. I would also throw N Keal Harry out there. He is being massively overlooked and there is a very weak depth chart this year and next there. There are also all the Gronk and Hogan targets to be had. Harry is likely cheap right now.
Thought about mentioning Harry. I don't expect much this year but I believe Josh Gordon and Dorsett are free agents at the end of the year. If Brady returns, I could see it for sure. I think though, with his separation issues, he needs Brady back and as good as ever next year. Doubt a rookie or journeyman vet will be able to fit it into those tight windows.

Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:22 pm
by IR1
imi814 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:00 am
dmac37 wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:39 pm
The answer to the question is JJAW
I hope you are right
X3
If Miami can get their act together, I guess Preston Williams in a couple years?

Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:37 pm
by Forza_Azzurri
IR1 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:22 pm
imi814 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:00 am
dmac37 wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:39 pm
The answer to the question is JJAW
I hope you are right
X3
If Miami can get their act together, I guess Preston Williams in a couple years?
Not a knock on Williams, but I don’t think any current skill player on the Dolphins long-term role is guaranteed. I think it’s very possible Miami drafts a QB & WR or QB & RB in Top 10 next year ... possibly getting all 3 in first round (although they definitely should take a Tackle)

Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:18 pm
by Straycatz2
If we are talking about possible to be overall Wr1 - Wr3.
I would say Sutton. He has improved a ton from last year, shown he can take on the #1 corner on opposing teams and is currently #3 in overall yards (behind Godwin and Thomas)

I could say someone like Kupp but value lies in Sutton since every dynasty trade analyzer has him at like almost half the price of kupp including DLF trade analyzer.

Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:36 pm
by FantasyFreak
Straycatz2 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:18 pm
If we are talking about possible to be overall Wr1 - Wr3.
I would say Sutton. He has improved a ton from last year, shown he can take on the #1 corner on opposing teams and is currently #3 in overall yards (behind Godwin and Thomas)

I could say someone like Kupp but value lies in Sutton since every dynasty trade analyzer has him at like almost half the price of kupp including DLF trade analyzer.
Targets are my only concern. Maybe Lock can come in and just feed him, but it's an uphill battle. He hasn't hit double digit targets yet this year. Maybe when Sanders leaves. However it may also shade more coverage his way. Like the player, though.

Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:25 pm
by Straycatz2
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:36 pm
Targets are my only concern. Maybe Lock can come in and just feed him, but it's an uphill battle. He hasn't hit double digit targets yet this year. Maybe when Sanders leaves. However it may also shade more coverage his way. Like the player, though.
If he had the targets then he wouldn't be half the price of kupp. But he ticks all the boxes (huge jump from previous year and the production, talent is there) and just missing the targets that hopefully he will get in the future with a better qb or if sanders leaves.

If he had Godwin / thomas targets with the same production he would be #1 in yards.

Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:28 pm
by FantasyFreak
Straycatz2 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:25 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:36 pm
Targets are my only concern. Maybe Lock can come in and just feed him, but it's an uphill battle. He hasn't hit double digit targets yet this year. Maybe when Sanders leaves. However it may also shade more coverage his way. Like the player, though.
If he had the targets then he wouldn't be half the price of kupp. But he ticks all the boxes (huge jump from previous year and the production, talent is there) and just missing the targets that hopefully he will get in the future with a better qb or if sanders leaves.

If he had Godwin / thomas targets with the same production he would be #1 in yards.
Not disputing any of that. I like Sutton (note the team in my sig). There are just a lot of unknowns in the Denver situation, currently. I expect Sutton to be a WR1, I mean, he already is, currently.

Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:46 am
by kmbryant09
Some names already mentioned, but here are some of the guys that came to mind:

Christian Kirk: - Was a popular breakout candidate this year, but a *slow* start and his recent injury may have opened up a nice buy-window. People don't seem to realize he was on-pace for 96 / 1,000 after the first 4 games, and that was before the offense started firing on all (more?) cylinders. Was an above-average athlete coming out of college with a phenomenal breakout age. Fitzgerald will be gone eventually, which should free up ~100 targets / year. I'd happily buy for a mid-first.

Courtland Sutton - He's starting to breakout, but perhaps his owners haven't noticed. Not only are the stats there, but he's looked the part of a prototypical WR #1 - size, strength, winning down the field and making contested catches. Things might get worse before they get better, as Lock will replace Flacco at some point this year, but his arrow is definitely pointing up. Sanders will be traded this week, freeing up ~100 targets / year.

Preston Williams - Should be considerably cheaper than the other guys on this list, and he's not without additional risk. But he's been the lone bright spot on that offense. He's struggled with consistency (still struggling with drops), but he's got the size & speed we look for in traditional #1's, and he's already flashed more in 6 games than a lot of rookies flash in their entire year. D. Parker should be gone next year, and the QB of the future should arrive in April's draft.

JJAW - He was a popular pick this off-season and I've seen him mentioned in this thread, but I think we're going to have to wait an extra year - meaning any potential breakout would happen in 2021, not next year like some hoped. Alshon re-structured his contract and will be guaranteed a spot next year, and DJAX isn't going anywhere next year with his contract & how important his role is as the deep threat on this team. Couple that with arguably the best TE group in the league, and I can't see anything opening up for JJAW until at least 2021. I would not be buying now, as I think owners will grow impatient around this time next year.

Looking around the league, I'm struggling to identify anyone that has the combination of talent & situation to catapult into top10-15 status in the near-future. I do think there are some solid buy-low WR's that could see themselves in significantly better situations this time next year:

Diontae Johnson - I'm betting on Pittsburgh's ability to identify, draft, and develop WR's. He's looked great in a limited offense this year, and will get Big Ben back next year (plus, Moncrief will be gone).
Rashard Higgins - Seemed to have great chemistry with Baker, but hasn't been able to get on the field this season after a knee injury. He should be healthy coming out of the bye, and I think he pushes Callaway for an every-down role in this offense. I could also see the team moving on from Landry after this season, potentially opening up ~100 targets.
Darius Slayton - A dynasty darling, he's shown flashes as a rookie. He's their only young outside WR (with Shepard / Tate better suited for slot roles), and could be an every-down starter on a competent offense if Daniel Jones is a hit.
Auden Tate - He's got the size & catch radius to make him a huge target for his QB. We all expect A.J. Green to return, but I think there's a decent chance he's either traded at the deadline, or allowed to walk in FA after the season. Cincy should also be looking to upgrade their QB position, so Tate could find himself as the #1b on offense behind Boyd and he's already an established RZ threat.

Next Godwin?

Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:29 am
by rmacattack6
Hey all,

Sorry if there is a comment already out there but I am looking for the next Godwin type player. Last year Godwin was an "obvious" sleeper for a break out season with the hiring of Arians and his elite athleticism. Any ideas for this year? This is the time of year where I like to go after guys like Godwin for cheap. My ideas:

WR
Parris Campbell - if the colts upgrade at QB
James Washington
Anthony Miller
Mecole Hardman
DJ Chark - he may be the closest example to the season before this last season for Godwin
Deebo Samuel - although value is up already (post SB run)

RB
Rashaad Penny - post hype sleeper
Ronald Jones

TE
OJ Howard - post hype sleeper
Ian Thomas

Thoughts?

Re: Next Godwin?

Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:40 am
by Packerland
The obvious one would be AJ Brown or Deebo. My under the radar breakouts would be Diontae Johnson and Preston Williams. Johnson had the highest separation in routes run at like 3.1 yards last year and Preston Williams was really showing well before tearing his ACL. Not saying they are going to be stud that Godwin is but I like them a lot.

Re: Next Godwin?

Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:07 am
by abloom
Sutton, Diontae Johnson, Curtis Samuel (depending on QB), WR1 and/or WR2 on whatever team signs Winston. For example, if LAC signs him, I can see Williams having a breakout.

Re: Next Godwin?

Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:22 am
by kmbryant09
There was actually a thread with this exact theme back in October 2019, I don't know how to link it properly but it was titled "Finding the next Godwin".

Here's what I wrote all the way back in October 2019:

Christian Kirk: - Was a popular breakout candidate this year, but a *slow* start and his recent injury may have opened up a nice buy-window. People don't seem to realize he was on-pace for 96 / 1,000 after the first 4 games, and that was before the offense started firing on all (more?) cylinders. Was an above-average athlete coming out of college with a phenomenal breakout age. Fitzgerald will be gone eventually, which should free up ~100 targets / year. I'd happily buy for a mid-first.

Courtland Sutton - He's starting to breakout, but perhaps his owners haven't noticed. Not only are the stats there, but he's looked the part of a prototypical WR #1 - size, strength, winning down the field and making contested catches. Things might get worse before they get better, as Lock will replace Flacco at some point this year, but his arrow is definitely pointing up. Sanders will be traded this week, freeing up ~100 targets / year.

Preston Williams - Should be considerably cheaper than the other guys on this list, and he's not without additional risk. But he's been the lone bright spot on that offense. He's struggled with consistency (still struggling with drops), but he's got the size & speed we look for in traditional #1's, and he's already flashed more in 6 games than a lot of rookies flash in their entire year. D. Parker should be gone next year, and the QB of the future should arrive in April's draft. (Note - Parker will not be gone as he signed an extension, but worth noting that Williams was actually out-producing Parker before the injury)

JJAW - He was a popular pick this off-season and I've seen him mentioned in this thread, but I think we're going to have to wait an extra year - meaning any potential breakout would happen in 2021, not next year like some hoped. Alshon re-structured his contract and will be guaranteed a spot next year, and DJAX isn't going anywhere next year with his contract & how important his role is as the deep threat on this team. Couple that with arguably the best TE group in the league, and I can't see anything opening up for JJAW until at least 2021. I would not be buying now, as I think owners will grow impatient around this time next year.

Looking around the league, I'm struggling to identify anyone that has the combination of talent & situation to catapult into top10-15 status in the near-future. I do think there are some solid buy-low WR's that could see themselves in significantly better situations this time next year:

Diontae Johnson - I'm betting on Pittsburgh's ability to identify, draft, and develop WR's. He's looked great in a limited offense this year, and will get Big Ben back next year (plus, Moncrief will be gone).
Rashard Higgins - Seemed to have great chemistry with Baker, but hasn't been able to get on the field this season after a knee injury. He should be healthy coming out of the bye, and I think he pushes Callaway for an every-down role in this offense. I could also see the team moving on from Landry after this season, potentially opening up ~100 targets.
Darius Slayton - A dynasty darling, he's shown flashes as a rookie. He's their only young outside WR (with Shepard / Tate better suited for slot roles), and could be an every-down starter on a competent offense if Daniel Jones is a hit.
Auden Tate - He's got the size & catch radius to make him a huge target for his QB. We all expect A.J. Green to return, but I think there's a decent chance he's either traded at the deadline, or allowed to walk in FA after the season. Cincy should also be looking to upgrade their QB position, so Tate could find himself as the #1b on offense behind Boyd and he's already an established RZ threat.


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hope you guys bought up your shares of C. Sutton, D. Slayton, P. Williams (even with his injury) D. Johnson, and even A. Tate (if Green gets moved). R. Higgins was a swing and a miss, but he was probably free in all leagues. The jury is still out on JJAW (and I cautioned against buying him), though his Rookie year production is a big red flag. C. Kirk's value has at least held pretty strong throughout the season / off-season, and I still think he's a decent buy, even if the Cardinals draft Lamb / Jeudy in the 1st.

Here are a few more guys I'd throw out there:
C. Ridley - He fits Godwin's profile very similarly: his team's 2nd pass-catcher entering his 3rd season on a pass-heavy team, slated to lose a large number of targets in the off-season (Hooper & Freeman combined for 167 targets. He's talented, but the question remains can he perform consistently and not get banged up?

M. Gallup - Again, fits Godwin's profile very similarly as his team's 2nd pass-catcher entering his 3rd season on a team slated to lose a large number of targets (Cobb + Witten combined for 166 targets). He's talented, but might be closer to his ceiling than his floor assuming Dallas retains Cooper on a long-term deal.

T. Boyd - Not necessarily the same profile, but Boyd still produced a 90 / 1,050 / 5 season in which pretty much everything went wrong for the Bengals. I expect an uptick to that entire offense with Burrow, a healthier O-Line, and the 2nd season in Zac Taylor's offense.

Re: Next Godwin?

Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:11 am
by M-Dub
I like a lot of the WRs mentioned so far, but if you’re really trying to find the “next Godwin,” i.e. a WR who had flashed elite talent and was already valued pretty highly by his owners but is capable of making the leap into that truly elite tier like Godwin did last season, my answer is DJ Moore. It’d probably cost an early 1st to acquire him, but I think that will look like a steal a year from now.

Re: Next Godwin?

Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:41 am
by Vcize
Ridley seems like the most straight line comparison. Similar 2nd year numbers, playing across from a traditionally elite WR1, and available around the 4th/5th round of startup drafts.

Gallup is another one that compares similarly, though his 2nd season far outproduced Godwin's. Still about the same value headed into the year though (4th/5th round ADP).

Neither have the name hype that Godwin did though, where basically everyone wanted him at his cost entering the year. AJB probably the closest thing to having that kind of name hype though he doesn't profile similarly in the other ways above and his cost is higher than Godwin's was.