Finding the Next Godwin

[Cameron Giles]

As of now I'll say Ridley fits best but I don't see an older player like him taking the kind of jump Godwin did or Julio giving up his alpha role a easily, especially considering the history he and Matt Ryan have--and also have to consider that a lot of the vacated targets are Hooper's and they did bring in Hurst

He fits the situation Godwin was in, but he's currently being valued too highly for 2 reasons:

1. I think his ceiling is not nearly as high despite him being valued where Godwin was last season based on ADP... Godwin put up elite numbers whenever he had a starting role in that offense, as early as his rookie year when he took over for an injured DJax and outproduced Ridley despite being as low as 5th on the pecking order in TB vs 3rd for Ridley who was blocked somewhat by a TE. So based on their inherent talent levels, I don't think he should be valued at the same ADP Godwin went at last season based on their floors being similar and different ceilings.

2. ATL's defense has degraded after key injuries to Keanu Neal and Dion Jones the past two years. Their defense isn't actually that bad when those playmakers are healthy. Maybe they get injured again, but it's also possible they don't which would limit passing volume.

Atlanta's defense won't be comically bad, but it'll still be bad.

Also, before Ridley went out for the season, he was on pace for 77/1065/8.

Between Hooper, Freeman, and Sanu, Atlanta lost 209 targets from last season. They added Gurley, Hayden Hurst, and who's their 3rd WR? Gage? Atlanta has a very defined pecking order in their passing offense right now between Julio, Ridley, and nothing else. Those two are going to get spoonfed on a team that's going to be playing from behind a lot.

Ridley may not be as good as Godwin, but this is the exact same script that led to Godwin's breakout. Barring injury, I'd honestly be shocked if Ridley doesn't have a big year.

[Sriracha]

Atlanta's defense won't be comically bad, but it'll still be bad.

Agree to disagree here. Neal has only played in 4 of the last 32 games the past two years and ATL was the #20 defense in terms of defensive DVOA last year. The last time both Neal and Jones were healthy together was 2017, when Ryan threw 529 times. If the defense rises to slightly above average then negative passing game script could reduce a lot of the volume caked into Ridley's ADP.

Also, before Ridley went out for the season, he was on pace for 77/1065/8.

Between Hooper, Freeman, and Sanu, Atlanta lost 209 targets from last season. They added Gurley, Hayden Hurst, and who's their 3rd WR? Gage? Atlanta has a very defined pecking order in their passing offense right now between Julio, Ridley, and nothing else. Those two are going to get spoonfed on a team that's going to be playing from behind a lot.

Ridley may not be as good as Godwin, but this is the exact same script that led to Godwin's breakout. Barring injury, I'd honestly be shocked if Ridley doesn't have a big year.

Matt Ryan throughout his career has been perfectly content throwing to multiple receivers to accumulate his stats. If Ridley isn't worthy of commanding all of those targets, who's to say that you don't see a more spread out receiving distribution? Assigning all of the missing targets to Ridley because he's the second best receiving target on that team is somewhat reckless.

[jordanzs]

If we're going by this list I posted earlier, then Calvin Ridley is this year's Godwin.

Target opportunity? Check
Pass-first offense or likely to play from behind a lot? Check
Head Coach or OC with proven history of high-level receiver production? Check.
Good route runner? Check

It's probably too late to buy reasonably though.

I believe I'm with CG on this one and I like his breakdown. Ridley has all the tools, has the offense and QB, and has the elite option on the other side to help keep attention off of him.

I'm not sure what a reasonable price would be for him though. I have 1.02 in my home league and would not move it for him. However, of I had the 1.03, I would def move it for Ridley. I've made quite a few offers for Ridley in my leagues but have yet to get any real traction, so I agree that his share holders also believe the breakout is coming.

I think Ridley will continue to be really good but what's the track record on guys who were older rookies making the kind of leap Godwin did last year or Juju two years ago? Can't think of any examples off the top of my head

Roddy White.

[The MAC Machine]

Calvin is the best bet right now. Jeudy comes to my mind. CeeDee Lamb. Those would be in 2-3 years though IMO.

[FantasyFreak]

Chark, perhaps. I think he could put up numbers closer to Godwin's this year. I think he will be targeted heavily and they will be throwing a lot in the 2nd half.