Finding the Next Godwin

[kmbryant09]

@ djeternal2 - here's what I wrote about Godwin's situation back in June 2019:

"What I found most interesting was his similarities (both as a player and the team) to JuJu Smith-Schuster and the Pittsburgh offense from 2 years ago - check out the comparison between the 2017 Steelers and 2018 Bucs, and the corresponding seasons between JuJu & Godwin:

2017 Steelers: 383 - 589 (65.0%) / 4,490 yards / 29 TDs / 15 INTs
2018 Tampa: 408 - 625 (65.3%) / 5,350 yards / 36 TDs / 26 (!) INTs

2017 JuJu: 58 catches / 917 yards / 15.8ypc / 7 TDs
2018 Godwin: 59 catches / 842 yards / 14.3ypc / 7 TDs

2017 Steelers went on to lose 190 primary targets that season (106 from Bell & 84 from Bryant), opening up more of an opportunity for JuJu that helped lead to his breakout 2018 season.

2018 Tampa are losing 180 primary targets this season (105 from Humphries & 74 from D-Jax), potentially opening up more of an opportunity for Godwin and his potential breakout 2019 season.

I don't think Godwin is quite as talented as JuJu is as a player and I don't think it's fair to expect a breakout to the same degree that JuJu just experienced. But Evans can still be the #1 alpha WR, and Godwin can finish as a high-end WR #2 or even low-end WR #1 - both of those things can be true. Just based on that offense, the situation, competition for targets, and likely game script all season, I think it's very possible that Godwin sees 130 targets, and based on last year's efficiency measures, he would parlay those targets into 80 / 1,150 / 9, good enough for 213 .5PPR points, which translates to the WR 11 - 13 range based on last year."

I gotta say, I didn't expect to be quite as spot on as I was. He parlayed 121 targets into 86 / 1,300 / 9 (in just 14 games) and finished as a WR #1.

Say what you want about vacated targets. I certainly don't use it as a be-all-end-all. But I really think it can help identify breakout players in terms of fantasy production. Assuming the QB & offensive system remains in place, a team will throw the ball around the same number of times, generally speaking. And at some point, the QB is going to funnel targets to 1, 2 or 3 major pieces on the offense. Not sure how someone could de-bunk the idea that a player that is in-line to see an increase in targets due to a lack of competition isn't in a better situation to succeed.

Unfortunately I'm unable to find a place to re-listen to the podcast. It was Dynasty Crossroads from July 26th of last year. Everywhere I looked including here on DLF only goes back to the first show of this year. Maybe someone from DLF can pop a link to it in this thread. He went through some data and there's no correlation between a player leaving and it automatically means someone else naturally gets those targets. In general if the offense & QB stay the same the targets just get spread around to the players there. For an example of that look at 2016 Redskins to the 2017 version. Godwin & JuJu are talented players therefore they commanded those targets. They didn't just get them because DJax/Humphries & Bell left. And I would argue they would have commanded those targets regardless if the other players had been there or not.

Why did they each average 3-4 more targets PER GAME from the prior year?

Sure, we have to give some credit to player development. But I think we'd be idiots not to also give credit to a whopping 12 vacated targets per game as well.

[Plank]

LSU's Justin Jefferson

[Pullo Vision]

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/a ... -football/

[Sriracha]

Lockett was another guy who hit after Baldwin’s retirement opened up a ton of vacated targets.

I believe the formula is probably a mixture of player efficiency + vacated targets = Boom potential.

Following that formula, The most likely offenses to unearth a stud are HOU, ATL

[StripesOfKC]

Lockett was another guy who hit after Baldwin’s retirement opened up a ton of vacated targets.

I believe the formula is probably a mixture of player efficiency + vacated targets = Boom potential.

Following that formula, The most likely offenses to unearth a stud are HOU, ATL

Hurst has seemingly become a buy for everyone to the point he isn't even a buy low

But Brandin Cooks is an incredible value right now IMO.

4 straight years as a high WR2 until last year and now gets a QB upgrade. He doesn't exactly count as a breakout though

[OhCruelestRanter]

Calvin Ridley seems like an answer, but his inability to produce YAC contrasts pretty starkly with Godwin's YAC production. If Julio gets hurt, however, he could end up with a massive number of targets that would make what he does after the catch irrelevant.

DJ Moore shouldn't count; he's already being drafted just behind Godwin. Same with JuJu and AJ Brown.

Christian Kirk is interesting. It's counter-intuitive, because his share of Arizona's offense might go down with Hopkins in town, but they only ranked 18th in pass attempts last year with 554. If the offense gets more efficient, they throw the ball more, and Kyler improves, maybe Kirk is the answer. He also fits the 3rd year breakout mold that Godwin did.

Maybe it's Will Fuller? Fuller has a huge opportunity share opening up, and Houston threw the ball even less than Arizona, despite having Watson. That's probably because they went 10-6 and didn't face many negative game scripts, despite the fact that their efficiency numbers suggest they probably weren't that good of a team. If their record regresses and Watson throws the ball closer to 600 times a game, maybe Fuller (or Cooks?) is the beneficiary. It should be noted that neither of these guys will have a Godwin-like spike in dynasty value into the top 5, so they only partially fit the question to begin with.

[Sriracha]

Calvin Ridley seems like an answer, but his inability to produce YAC contrasts pretty starkly with Godwin's YAC production. If Julio gets hurt, however, he could end up with a massive number of targets that would make what he does after the catch irrelevant.

DJ Moore shouldn't count; he's already being drafted just behind Godwin. Same with JuJu and AJ Brown.

Christian Kirk is interesting. It's counter-intuitive, because his share of Arizona's offense might go down with Hopkins in town, but they only ranked 18th in pass attempts last year with 554. If the offense gets more efficient, they throw the ball more, and Kyler improves, maybe Kirk is the answer. He also fits the 3rd year breakout mold that Godwin did.

Maybe it's Will Fuller? Fuller has a huge opportunity share opening up, and Houston threw the ball even less than Arizona, despite having Watson. That's probably because they went 10-6 and didn't face many negative game scripts, despite the fact that their efficiency numbers suggest they probably weren't that good of a team. If their record regresses and Watson throws the ball closer to 600 times a game, maybe Fuller (or Cooks?) is the beneficiary. It should be noted that neither of these guys will have a Godwin-like spike in dynasty value into the top 5, so they only partially fit the question to begin with.

Agree on pretty much everyone here.

Re HOU: I suspect it’ll be an unknown or a bit of everyone. Kahale Warring, Randall Cobb, Will Fuller (if he can stay healthy) seem like the likely candidates. I think Cooks returns to being a 1,000 yards receiver but I don’t know how much theyre going to be looking to protect him given his concussion history

[MFundercover]

Fantasy freak explained it well, that Kirk doesn't have "alpha" capabilities to make this jump.

My answer would be DK Metcalf.

[StripesOfKC]

Fantasy freak explained it well, that Kirk doesn't have "alpha" capabilities to make this jump.

My answer would be DK Metcalf.

He may very well break out but not sure he fits the “Godwin like arc.”

The Seahawks passing offense hasn’t really lost anyone notable. Maybe with Carson and Penny banged up they throw more though? That can create more targets just as easily.

Gallup would have been an interesting one with Cobb and Witten’s targets gone if not for the Lamb pick.

My projections for Kirk obviously didn’t pan out since Fitz keeps coming back for some reason and the Hopkins deal.

A year from now this could be Tee Higgins or Pittman if AJG/TY are gone


For now though I agree with most on Ridley being the obvious candidate—though I will say leaps like Godwin’s or Juju’s 2018 one tend to be made by younger players rather than guys who entered later like Ridley.

Not saying it will hold him back but something to remember because there are some things his situation has in common with Godwin’s last year

[Blueboy]

Sort of a weird answer, but perhaps CeeDee Lamb? Dallas is 2nd in the league with 190 vacated targets, and imo Lamb is clearly their best option to start in the slot. If he does get the slot gig, and Cooper + Gallup work outside, Lamb could skyrocket despite already being a much-hyped rookie.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Sort of a weird answer, but perhaps CeeDee Lamb? Dallas is 2nd in the league with 190 vacated targets, and imo Lamb is clearly their best option to start in the slot. If he does get the slot gig, and Cooper + Gallup work outside, Lamb could skyrocket despite already being a much-hyped rookie.

This is interesting! Where did you find the vacated target numbers?

I think Lamb could be hampered by a limited offseason, but the title does say “next Godwin” as opposed to 2020 Godwin. Maybe the next Chris Godwin is Lamb in 2021?

[Blueboy]

Sort of a weird answer, but perhaps CeeDee Lamb? Dallas is 2nd in the league with 190 vacated targets, and imo Lamb is clearly their best option to start in the slot. If he does get the slot gig, and Cooper + Gallup work outside, Lamb could skyrocket despite already being a much-hyped rookie.

This is interesting! Where did you find the vacated target numbers?

I think Lamb could be hampered by a limited offseason, but the title does say “next Godwin” as opposed to 2020 Godwin. Maybe the next Chris Godwin is Lamb in 2021?

Rotoworld compiled vacated air yards via PFR and AirYards - https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbe ... -air-yards

Yeah, the virtual offseason could really hurt rookies. That said, Lamb is one of the small handful of rookie WR who look "NFL ready" to me. Physicality often seems to be the biggest barrier to overcome, and he's got that in spades.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Sort of a weird answer, but perhaps CeeDee Lamb? Dallas is 2nd in the league with 190 vacated targets, and imo Lamb is clearly their best option to start in the slot. If he does get the slot gig, and Cooper + Gallup work outside, Lamb could skyrocket despite already being a much-hyped rookie.

This is interesting! Where did you find the vacated target numbers?

I think Lamb could be hampered by a limited offseason, but the title does say “next Godwin” as opposed to 2020 Godwin. Maybe the next Chris Godwin is Lamb in 2021?

Rotoworld compiled vacated air yards via PFR and AirYards - https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbe ... -air-yards

Yeah, the virtual offseason could really hurt rookies. That said, Lamb is one of the small handful of rookie WR who look "NFL ready" to me. Physicality often seems to be the biggest barrier to overcome, and he's got that in spades.

Awesome resource- thank you!

And yeah, physically I think Lamb is ready-ish. I’m more concerned about learning the offense with minimal reps and no rookie minicamp.

[Ray Finkle]

Thanks for that vacated targets link, it’s pretty slick.

Gallup and Ridley were the two obvious 2020 blow ups before the draft. Lamb put the cool on Gallup who I felt became undervalued everywhere and that’s before I had any idea there was all those targets up for grabs.

[FantasyFreak]

This is interesting! Where did you find the vacated target numbers?

I think Lamb could be hampered by a limited offseason, but the title does say “next Godwin” as opposed to 2020 Godwin. Maybe the next Chris Godwin is Lamb in 2021?

Rotoworld compiled vacated air yards via PFR and AirYards - https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbe ... -air-yards

Yeah, the virtual offseason could really hurt rookies. That said, Lamb is one of the small handful of rookie WR who look "NFL ready" to me. Physicality often seems to be the biggest barrier to overcome, and he's got that in spades.

Awesome resource- thank you!

And yeah, physically I think Lamb is ready-ish. I’m more concerned about learning the offense with minimal reps and no rookie minicamp.

No chance Lamb as a rookie can put up Godwin like numbers, even without the off season the way it is IMO. He' sub 200 pounds at 6 ft 2 or so. He's a bit of an outlier in that regard. He's a very good player, but even in today's game, not the type of prospect who can step in day 1 and dominate. He would struggle on the outside IMO. Slot is better for him, and I think the Cowboys will do that. Playing physically vs the Big 12 is one thing, doing vs NFL corners is another. He would not hold up well vs outside coverage IMO, in the slot he will. If they are smart they will play him there. His upside is limited in that role, but he will be more successful IMO.

Lamb had 1 catch for 13 yards vs a freshman in Stingley, which was one of his few big tests. I know Stingley is a fantastic prospect, but he was still a true Freshman. Lamb was completely eliminated when facing him, pretty much. He only made a big play vs a safety 1 on 1 vs LSU, on a nice back shoulder throw (and catch) by Hurts.

BTW, before getting all excited about vacated targets, I suggest reading this article. While vacated targets certainly isn't a bad thing, it doesn't necessarily mean as much as some may think.

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/a ... -football/

Some RB's weren't relevant in this article simply because of playing time, but Singletary compared to his college targets was bang on, and the smash in this was obviously Fournette. So maybe target Zeke or Pollard? LOL