Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

[FantasyFreak]

He's just not a very good NFL WR.

[Straycatz2]

Coming out of college I was almost sure he was going to be a stud. Such a shame

[Johnny Canuck]

The time to cash out was last season when there was a glimmer of hope. He's basically just a hold.

Everyone should check out this thread below from last yr on CD...some pretty cringy posts in there, just dripping with condescension about how great CD is and how everyone that doesn't think so is an idiot. Funny read.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=182905&start=45

Gotta love hindsight right. That said, I think I was pretty close with my CD forecast. This post below was from over a yr ago, and before the Titans had drafted AJB and signed Tannehill.

Davis won't be a WR1 unless he gets a better situation.

I'm not sure he'll even be a WR2 in his current situation...

Hopefully his situation changes sooner rather than later, because if he remains in the status quo, it will seriously hamper his development, possibly to point of capping his ceiling.

Let's go down the Titan future rabbit hole a bit:
- Davis is 24, and The Titans give Mariota one more season to right the ship. Then say history repeats itself, and the passing game continues to struggle. Another offseason of "next yr he'll be great" and counting on potential. Skip to next season.
- Now he's 25, the Titans have given up on Mariota and are looking to draft a new QB. So now he's with a rookie or a bridge QB, not a good sign for the passing game. If this is the case it's likely another yr of pretty mediocre numbers due to volume and inaccuracy issues.
- Now he's 26, the Titans just picked up his 5th yr option, and hopefully that rookie QB makes a jump, if not....same old story.
- Davis will finally be free of his poor situation at his age 27 season, but with very little production to show for all his troubles...

IMO that's a very plausible scenario. This isn't even bringing up the fact that they might just run the ball into oblivion in 2019 and beyond. In fact, the only way I don't see type of scenario happening is if Mariota can have a major bounce back, or if they draft an absolute stud QB (Luck/Baker level rookie yr) in 2020. Fingers crossed for Davis owners.

NTM, If the Titans take a WR in round 1, this is likely to only worsen his situation, as it will likely (not 100% - but likely) eat into his target share.

Due to his ambiguous future outcomes, I'd advise owners to hold (or sell if they can get a mid first or better), and I would advise buyers to only buy if you can get a steep discount (late late first/early 2nd).

He seems like a player you'd rather be a yr too late on, need to see it. And to everyone that says, "he'd be too expensive to buy then!" - based on his situation and production, he's too expensive to buy now.

Ignore me, just patting my own back lol

[CGW]

Id take him as a throw in to a larger trade, but wouldn't offer anything of value for him. He's a good enough NFL receiver(maybe), but it doesn't translate to fantasy. I have no hope it improves.

[Johnny B. Goode]

He averages 3.4/44.4/0.14
2/42 games were over 100 yards
6/42 games were over 5 receptions

Sold all my shares after it looked like he might be turning it around roughly at week 3 or 4. Glad I got what I did

[AussieMate]

I think he is better than he's shown so far but also don't think it is ever happening.

[sloth8u]

Im still a believer and buyer at the right price. Will go down with the ship if he never gets the targets. If the targets come, i think the production will be there.

[bjd5211]

I'm buying at the price of early 2 for Davis + late 2, but I'm about ready to tap out. I think his ceiling now is mid-tier WR2, whereas I saw his ceiling as a top 5 WR when he was a rookie.

[Krypto_King]

What are everyone's thoughts on Corey Davis? He's played 3 years with kind of a 2nd year breakout but the third being a dud. Granted he had Marcus Mariota as his QB for 2 and half years (but even then, Mariota was dealing with a lot of health problems during those years). Then Tannehill comes along and not much changes. Is he a bust? Is he a sell or a buy? Should us owners hang on another year (or is it 2) to see if he goes to a better situation as a free agent? I don't know what to do with him except NOT play him. I hate giving up on the guy.

What better situation? Tanny came in, was a top 10 QB and CD still didn't do squat. I just don't understand why so many owners can't quit him when he hasn't shown to be a top 10 or even 24 WR ever in the league. Are you guys still holding onto your pre-draft eval of him? I get why ppl still went nuts over Josh Gordon even on his 2nd & third comeback because at least he had that 1 magical top 10 season dangling that carrot out there.

Ppl still trying to justify CD but last offseason everyone jumping off ARob because he was a 1 year wonder doing it in garbage time 2 years ago. This community drives me nuts sometimes. /rant

I love how AJ Brown takes a few passes 60 yards after the catch and now Ryan Tannehill is a great quarterback
a better situation would be one where he gets thrown the ball and/or the team passes more than 25 times per game. which Davis isn't getting anytime soon so he's a hold or maybe dump for a future 2nd

[djeternal2]

What are everyone's thoughts on Corey Davis? He's played 3 years with kind of a 2nd year breakout but the third being a dud. Granted he had Marcus Mariota as his QB for 2 and half years (but even then, Mariota was dealing with a lot of health problems during those years). Then Tannehill comes along and not much changes. Is he a bust? Is he a sell or a buy? Should us owners hang on another year (or is it 2) to see if he goes to a better situation as a free agent? I don't know what to do with him except NOT play him. I hate giving up on the guy.

What better situation? Tanny came in, was a top 10 QB and CD still didn't do squat. I just don't understand why so many owners can't quit him when he hasn't shown to be a top 10 or even 24 WR ever in the league. Are you guys still holding onto your pre-draft eval of him? I get why ppl still went nuts over Josh Gordon even on his 2nd & third comeback because at least he had that 1 magical top 10 season dangling that carrot out there.

Ppl still trying to justify CD but last offseason everyone jumping off ARob because he was a 1 year wonder doing it in garbage time 2 years ago. This community drives me nuts sometimes. /rant

I love how AJ Brown takes a few passes 60 yards after the catch and now Ryan Tannehill is a great quarterback
a better situation would be one where he gets thrown the ball and/or the team passes more than 25 times per game. which Davis isn't getting anytime soon so he's a hold or maybe dump for a future 2nd

AJB must have had a monster year then. Tanny had 286 att and threw for 2700 yards in 10 games started with 22 TD & 6 INT. He averaged over your arbitrary line of 25 att per game. You know what CD did over those games: 42 targets 27 catches 364 yards 1 TD.

[FantasyFreak]

Im still a believer and buyer at the right price. Will go down with the ship if he never gets the targets. If the targets come, i think the production will be there.

To an extent. He had 112 targets a few years ago with moderate production. The reality is, he isn't deserving of a massive target volume, so the targets probably won't be there, because force feeding him targets isn't going to lead to team success.

[Zacsby]

Mariota was a huge problem. Then AJB became the problem. He's not as good as AJB and there's just not room for two WRs to produce in that offense. I still think he could be a WR2/3 in a better situation. But who knows if/when that happens. I wouldn't buy but I'm not selling for a random 3rd or whatever other insignificant offer you're likely to get either.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I’d consider buying at the aforementioned random 3rd, but I don’t think anybody who owns him is selling for that. I think Davis is owned by a relatively high number of truthers who are willing to go down with the ship, so you’re not getting him for as cheap as his production suggests.

[sloth8u]

Im still a believer and buyer at the right price. Will go down with the ship if he never gets the targets. If the targets come, i think the production will be there.

To an extent. He had 112 targets a few years ago with moderate production. The reality is, he isn't deserving of a massive target volume, so the targets probably won't be there, because force feeding him targets isn't going to lead to team success.

I dont have the numbers, but pretty confident that if we look....we'll find a wr needs 130 or so targets (in general) for the production we're looking for.

For me, the talent looks to be there. The draft pedigree is there, now we wait for the opportunities. Qb and scheme were a question from day 1 with him.

Someone brought up parker earlier in the thread, could have brought up guys like ab and adams who took a few yrs to get going and became high end players. I get that its a dynasty site and everyone wants players to breakout right away, but thats not the case for everyone and especially wr for a ball control team.

Just my opinion, but tanny's "success" only hurts that organization in terms of finding their franchise qb.

Maybe you and others never liked him or gave up on him....no problem there. Fair to say that others may see that he hasnt had much of an opportunity either and the production will come if the opportunity does. Realistically in yr 2 he was 2-3 tds away from a top 20 finish if i remember correctly. Tds are unpredictable. I think that yr was 112 tgt, 850-900 yds, 3-5 td.....get him some targets and could easily be 1000 and 10 which most would be frothing at the mouth over a 2nd yr wr.

I dont blame anyone for moving on, get out while you can mentality. I personally would only sell if it made the team better, not another lottery ticket outside the top 10, which is exactly what you'd be offered.

[Factory of Sadness]

There's no rationale here for WHY a team should give him 130 targets. Davis cemented the Treadwell lesson for me that as skeptical as I am about much of the combine, I am not drafting a WR who doesn't run there again, at least not as high as those two. Davis is sluggish and we didn't see this because of MAC competition. He's fine as an NFL talent. He's fast enough-just- big enough, fluid enough etc. I haven't seen any outstanding traits though. Just comparing him to this year's intake, he doesn't have AJ Brown's strength or speed, he can't run with Deebo, who is stronger to boot, much less run with Metcalf or McLaurin. With all of the WRs coming in this year who can absolutely fly, I'm not sure why any team would decide that this is the guy that they want they to run their offense through?