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2020 offseason buy lows sell highs
Posted: Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:02 am
by Pullo Vision
This author argues that strength of schedule doesn't hold predictive value but can be used after the fact to how players performed in tough versus easy matchups. From another angle, suggests good buy/sell targets.
https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-footba ... edule-2019
Carson, Parker, Sutton, Mayfield, Beckham, Mixon, Kupp, Shepard, Cooper, Henry, Winston.
Curious about other possible options.
Re: 2020 offseason buy lows sell highs
Posted: Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:24 am
by FantasyFreak
Is it how the team ranked at the time they played them, or how they ranked in hindsight, as in, their year end ranking?
Re: 2020 offseason buy lows sell highs
Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:49 pm
by Pullo Vision
Hindsight. Specifically-
Instead of attempting to make fantasy predictions based on the projected strength of a player’s schedule, I’d rather see how strength of schedule actually impacted a player’s numbers in the previous season... This is typically done by calculating a defense’s fantasy-point-per-game average and then looking at the average for all players over a full season. To control for opposing offense, you can then measure fantasy points per game over an opponent’s average.
For instance, last season, opposing quarterbacks averaged +7.3 fantasy points per game over their season-long average when facing Miami, which ranked worst in the league. On the opposite end of the spectrum, quarterbacks fell short of their season-long average by -7.0 points when facing New England, which ranked best in the league. Calculating these numbers for all teams and then applying the full-season average for all players quantifies in real terms which players had the easiest and most difficult schedules for fantasy.
Another imperfection- this doesn't account for players who are more effective out wide vs in the slot, or vice versa. Still interesting.
Re: 2020 offseason buy lows sell highs
Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:32 pm
by Pullo Vision
More food for thought-
https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/01/dyn ... -football/
Some of the ideas seem too obvious, but others like Golladay and Keenan Allen are more interesting.
Re: 2020 offseason buy lows sell highs
Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:02 pm
by CGW
Many of these are obvious. I hope Golladay is part of the 30% their formula gets wrong. He seems like one who stands to benefit from not having David Blough behind center. Sure, his TDs may regress, but surely his receptions will increase to make up for that by having a capable NFL level QB throwing passes to him.
Re: 2020 offseason buy lows sell highs
Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:29 pm
by gopackgo
Buy Jace Sternberger before Graham gets cut
Re: 2020 offseason buy lows sell highs
Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:29 pm
by BrentMayFF
Not only are they obvious, but the entire community sees most of them as sell now candidates. Most of them their value is rather depressed and won't be able to get much for them, probably much less than their production level. If you are contending I wouldn't probably trade any of them unless of course, you can get a fair deal for them.
Re: 2020 offseason buy lows sell highs
Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:41 pm
by Pullo Vision
BrentMayFF wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:29 pm
Not only are they obvious, but the entire community sees most of them as sell now candidates. Most of them their value is rather depressed and won't be able to get much for them, probably much less than their production level. If you are contending I wouldn't probably trade any of them unless of course, you can get a fair deal for them.
Too many dynasty sell ideas are "sell this old productive guy before his value collapses." I appreciate suggesting the lead WR of a run based offense whose short and longer term value seems built on youth and his league leading TD count. At the very least it's different, even if I don't agree with it.
Another article-
https://rotoexperts.com/dynasty-fantasy-football-sell/
Melvin Gordon seems too obvious, and Hilton is the age-ist argument again, but the Henry argument is interesting.
Re: 2020 offseason buy lows sell highs
Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:57 pm
by lilpuppy99
gopackgo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:29 pm
Buy Jace Sternberger before Graham gets cut
LOL..I bought Sternberger last year knowing Graham was done.
Re: 2020 offseason buy lows sell highs
Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:25 pm
by Lord_Varys
Do not sell Kenny Golladay for the love of God.
Re: 2020 offseason buy lows sell highs
Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:16 pm
by FantasyFreak
gopackgo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:29 pm
Buy Jace Sternberger before Graham gets cut
I don't think that really affects the value much. Graham was on his last legs, and the Packers TE spot isn't exactly in high demand in Fantasy.
Re: 2020 offseason buy lows sell highs
Posted: Wed Jan 29, 2020 5:44 am
by Pullo Vision
FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:16 pm
gopackgo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:29 pm
Buy Jace Sternberger before Graham gets cut
I don't think that really affects the value much. Graham was on his last legs, and the Packers TE spot isn't exactly in high demand in Fantasy.
On one hand, I agree with you. On the other, i think there would be an increase in perceived/trade value, because of the mush at WR2 and TE in 2019. Whether you can flip him for a profit is the question, to me.
Before Stafford was injured week 13, Golladay averaged 16.93 ppg in one of my sig leagues, good for 16th WR by average. From weeks 13-17, he averaged 17.56, the 13th average WR. Aside from Blough replacing Stafford, Marvin Jones being put on IR in advance of the week 15 game drove his target average went up, but not his fantasy production.
If Golladay's production will continue to be in that WR2 range but his value put at a low WR1 (or higher, it seems for some), then selling would make sense based on what's offered.
Re: 2020 offseason buy lows sell highs
Posted: Wed Jan 29, 2020 6:45 am
by Mjvb5
Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:41 pm
BrentMayFF wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:29 pm
Not only are they obvious, but the entire community sees most of them as sell now candidates. Most of them their value is rather depressed and won't be able to get much for them, probably much less than their production level. If you are contending I wouldn't probably trade any of them unless of course, you can get a fair deal for them.
Too many dynasty sell ideas are "sell this old productive guy before his value collapses." I appreciate suggesting the lead WR of a run based offense whose short and longer term value seems built on youth and his league leading TD count. At the very least it's different, even if I don't agree with it.
Another article-
https://rotoexperts.com/dynasty-fantasy-football-sell/
Melvin Gordon seems too obvious, and Hilton is the age-ist argument again, but the Henry argument is interesting.
Yeah, and when things like that simply become common trend it almost turns them into a buy low candidate..... if your a contender.
Julio for instance, should be classified as a sell high based on this, but everyone and there mother knows he's getting old so on a legit contender if someone is selling Julio he can almost become a great piece to target in a trade simply because his value is depressed because everyone has this mindset(FWIW I bought Julio basically straight up for Calvin Ridley)
Re: 2020 offseason buy lows sell highs
Posted: Wed Jan 29, 2020 6:52 am
by Bronco Billy
lilpuppy99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:57 pm
gopackgo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:29 pm
Buy Jace Sternberger before Graham gets cut
LOL..I bought Sternberger last year knowing Graham was done.
Might be a good idea to throw a minimum bid out on Tonyan too. He’s a transformed WR who is way ahead of Sternberger’s blocking skills right now. It’s possible that he may see a Shannon Sharpe lite trajectory, because Rodgers and the coaching staff have been enthusiastic about his progress and abilities to date.
Re: 2020 offseason buy lows sell highs
Posted: Wed Jan 29, 2020 7:54 am
by CGW
Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 5:44 am
FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:16 pm
gopackgo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:29 pm
Buy Jace Sternberger before Graham gets cut
I don't think that really affects the value much. Graham was on his last legs, and the Packers TE spot isn't exactly in high demand in Fantasy.
On one hand, I agree with you. On the other, i think there would be an increase in perceived/trade value, because of the mush at WR2 and TE in 2019. Whether you can flip him for a profit is the question, to me.
Before Stafford was injured week 13, Golladay averaged 16.93 ppg in one of my sig leagues, good for 16th WR by average. From weeks 13-17, he averaged 17.56, the 13th average WR. Aside from Blough replacing Stafford, Marvin Jones being put on IR in advance of the week 15 game drove his target average went up, but not his fantasy production.
If Golladay's production will continue to be in that WR2 range but his value put at a low WR1 (or higher, it seems for some), then selling would make sense based on what's offered.
You may be a bit off on some of these numbers, as Stafford didn't play from week 10 on. Here are Golladays splits:
Week 1-9 (w Stafford)
8 Games, 62 Targets, 35 Receptions, 640 Yards, 7 TDs.
7.75tgt/game, 4.375Rec/game, 80yd/game, 0.875TD/game, 18.285yd/rec
Week 10-17 (w Driskel/Blough)
8 Games, 54 Targets, 30 Receptions, 550 Yards, 4 TDs.
6.75tgt/game, 3.75rec/game, 68.75yd/game, 0.5TD/game, 18.33yd/rec.
His numbers were statistically worse across the board with Blough/Driskel with the exception of yards per reception. He had 4 Games over 100 Yards with Stafford vs 1 without.
I stand by my hopes that Golladay gets Stafford back, as he was performing at a very high level prior to Stafford going on IR. He's a hold for me, as I doubt I'll get more than fringe wr1/wr2 return by trading him off.