2020 offseason buy lows sell highs

[killer_of_giants]

Right testicle was horrible in scoring situations in college. Give me left testicle all day.

My testicles identify as position neutral, non-directional.

I thought for sure a post referencing their break out age and dominator rating was coming.

definitely coming... but they need to break out before they can dominate, so how does that work?

and mine are not position-neutral, though they pretend they're ovaries most tuesdays.

[Lotto4Life]

Sell Davante Adams

[killer_of_giants]

Sell Davante Adams

sure! why?

[Mjvb5]

Sell Davante Adams

sure! why?

x2 I'd argue that he's a hard buy this offseason after the down year(still WR9 in per game and was phenomenal down the stretch)

[DJB]

Sell Davante Adams

sure! why?

Hes 27. His career is over.

[stoneghost28]

Golladay, like Sutton, Terry, and Moore have been pretty awesome. Being able to produce good numbers while having a less than optimal qb.
There's the other side (juju) who's numbers took a big hit when qb changed.

I make no prediction for what is to come with Juju, but I think Juju's 2019 season had three critical issues:
1. He got injured
2. The QB play was total dog pile
2. Antonio Brown left

So you've got a major change with Brown gone, no longer drawing safety attention, it means more potential targets, but also that he'll attract significantly more attention in the game plans of opponents, then you have a HOF QB out for the year, and the replacements aren't Nick Foles, they're total dog ----, and then you have him missing time, and playing through much of the season with nagging injuries.

It wasn't just a case of a QB change, which is generally bad enough, and quite hard to deal with.

[mild]

Golladay, like Sutton, Terry, and Moore have been pretty awesome. Being able to produce good numbers while having a less than optimal qb.
There's the other side (juju) who's numbers took a big hit when qb changed.

I make no prediction for what is to come with Juju, but I think Juju's 2019 season had three critical issues:
1. He got injured
2. The QB play was total dog pile
2. Antonio Brown left

So you've got a major change with Brown gone, no longer drawing safety attention, it means more potential targets, but also that he'll attract significantly more attention in the game plans of opponents, then you have a HOF QB out for the year, and the replacements aren't Nick Foles, they're total dog ----, and then you have him missing time, and playing through much of the season with nagging injuries.

It wasn't just a case of a QB change, which is generally bad enough, and quite hard to deal with.

As someone whose currently trying to Buy Low on Juju, I'd like to hear whether you think he's going to bounce back or not.

[stoneghost28]

We all know the ultimate sell high this offseason is Lamar.

I literally don't know what I'd accept to sell Lamar in a Superflex. He's a fantasy goldmine for as long as I'm contending these next 5 years.

Dodged a colossal land mine with him.

Built my entire QB corps in a superflex RSO league via the '18 and '19 QB classes with Mayfield (1.02) Darnold (1.09), Jackson (1.12), D. Jones (2.07) and Haskins (2.06), was looking to trade Jackson to improve my situation at RB or WR, but I flat out couldn't receive a reasonable offer. I had a give and take with one guy, and he came close to getting me to bite but he was unwilling to throw in a 2nd future 1st as a part of a deal, kept trying to limit the damage to a 1st, and a 2nd and a quality bench option, and I wouldn't pull the trigger on that. So so so glad that I didn't cave and just give in, really thought about it because I was positive I couldn't win a title w/o adding one more player, I had Cook/Kamara as my RB options, and Godwin/DJ Moore/Jeffery/W. Fuller, and Kittle/Engram at TE, but my bench depth was basically rookies, and mediocre or worse guys. Anyway, I said no, and week one he DM's metaphorically w/tears, laughing bittersweetly at close he came to basically stealing him. Meanwhile, Jackson lead me to a #1 seed, but then the roof caved in w/my entire WR corps basically being lost to injury in the playoffs and I lost to a comically bad team in the 2nd round of the playoffs (I was projected to beat him by nearly 100, and instead nearly lost by 50 due to injury-in the third place game I was rolling out Keelan Cole, Steven Sims, Tyrell Williams, and Boston Scott due to injuries. I basically went from a steam roller putting my opponents to sleep, to some dumpster fire jalopy you would've expected Harpo Marx to drive around for a sight gag in Duck Soup.

Anyway, in that league I have Jackson on another 2 years of his rookie deal at basically 4.3 mill per year, while the rest of the top 15 QB's are held on 12-25 mill per year deal. Pretty sweet. I have the 1.03 and 1.07 in the rookie draft as well so it will make for a really interesting offseason. What to do with a team where I have several guys on expiring deals, and I have only so many tags (Godwin, Cook Engram, Kittle and Kamara in '17 coming due after the '20 season, and DJ Moore, Lamar Jackson, Darnold and Mayfield after the '21 season). Really need to figure out how the extensions, and tag's work, because I can't keep all of those guys.

[stoneghost28]

Golladay, like Sutton, Terry, and Moore have been pretty awesome. Being able to produce good numbers while having a less than optimal qb.
There's the other side (juju) who's numbers took a big hit when qb changed.

I make no prediction for what is to come with Juju, but I think Juju's 2019 season had three critical issues:
1. He got injured
2. The QB play was total dog pile
2. Antonio Brown left

So you've got a major change with Brown gone, no longer drawing safety attention, it means more potential targets, but also that he'll attract significantly more attention in the game plans of opponents, then you have a HOF QB out for the year, and the replacements aren't Nick Foles, they're total dog ----, and then you have him missing time, and playing through much of the season with nagging injuries.

It wasn't just a case of a QB change, which is generally bad enough, and quite hard to deal with.

As someone whose currently trying to Buy Low on Juju, I'd like to hear whether you think he's going to bounce back or not.

long term yes, short term probably no. Even if Ben Roth's back, he's old, and they have no answers behind him. He's a guy I'd try to buy in '21, and if his stock goes up, I'm fine w/missing out this offseason. Just too many questions.

[Straycatz2]

So you've got a major change with Brown gone, no longer drawing safety attention, it means more potential targets, but also that he'll attract significantly more attention in the game plans of opponents, then you have a HOF QB out for the year, and the replacements aren't Nick Foles, they're total dog ----, and then you have him missing time, and playing through much of the season with nagging injuries.

It wasn't just a case of a QB change, which is generally bad enough, and quite hard to deal with.

Yes, but on the flip side, Diontae Johnson and James Washington both had much better year than most expected with those same issues. I do like Juju and he will be better with big ben back, I just think he has some more questions to answer. When a backup QB comes in and the whole offense takes a nose dive its pretty common to see everyone across the board take a stats hit. Many QB got hurt this year. But its rare to see the star player take a big hit while everyone else round him exceed expectations.

[stoneghost28]

So you've got a major change with Brown gone, no longer drawing safety attention, it means more potential targets, but also that he'll attract significantly more attention in the game plans of opponents, then you have a HOF QB out for the year, and the replacements aren't Nick Foles, they're total dog ----, and then you have him missing time, and playing through much of the season with nagging injuries.

It wasn't just a case of a QB change, which is generally bad enough, and quite hard to deal with.

Yes, but on the flip side, Diontae Johnson and James Washington both had much better year than most expected with those same issues. I do like Juju and he will be better with big ben back, I just think he has some more questions to answer. When a backup QB comes in and the whole offense takes a nose dive its pretty common to see everyone across the board take a stats hit. Many QB got hurt this year. But its rare to see the star player take a big hit while everyone else round him exceed expectations.

Crappy Quarterback play yes, but not the same level of injury issues. Diontae is a risky but worthwhile speculative buy to me.

[Vcize]

I'm broadly in the don't anoint a new QB hero camp, but there's some blurring of the facts going on here about Mahomes. He didn't regress because the peak of last year was unsustainable. He got hurt. He missed time and was dinged up upon his return. The idea that he can't and won't be a dominant player at his position for years to come is not substantiated by this past year in the way some of you seem to be suggesting. I won't pay what he costs because I'd rather try to hit on value with cheaper guys. I'm certainly not going to look back at history, decide that past is always prologue and reject the idea that Mahomes in Kansas City isn't going to kick my bleep once or twice a year though.

Lamar is a different case again. He may well get hurt. Teams may scheme against him more effectively. Regression isn't a myth and he almost certainly won't throw so high a percentage of his passes for TDs again. He was the SIXTH leading rusher in the league last season though. That is, to use the analytically and scientifically correct terminology, ridonculous. His weapons in the passing game were a young TE, a hobbled rookie WR and a Boykin. The odds are certainly against him being this dominant ever again, but to look at the next three or four years of FF and decide that only fools pay up for Lamar? Bold taek.

I think blaming it all on the ankle injury is a little bit of a cop out. He threw for 446 yards and 3 TDs in his first game back from the ankle injury. He was doing alright.

Mahomes' 16 game pace with the game he left early removed was still very good. 4800/31. It was just ~QB5 good, not "8 points ahead of everyone else" good.

I was big on LJax headed into this season and own him all over the place. I am definitely worried about a regression in both TD rate and rushing yards. 1206 rushing yards is an insane amount for QB and even when we're not talking about historical amounts rushing numbers for running QBs are all over the place from year to year. Mike Vick ran for 900 yards one year then 500 the next. Most of the rest of them swing just as wildly. Most of the time a QB puts up a huge season on the back of big rushing numbers their value ends up dropping a lot the following season.

And that injury worry is doubly so for LJax over a guy like Mahomes. Mahomes tweeks his ankle and he can still go out there and throw for 446 yards and 3 TDs from the pocket and be a top 5 QB without his rushing numbers. If LJax picks up a nagging injury that sticks with him half a season that tanks his fantasy value even before we consider a regression in that TD rate.

I expect him to be a valuable piece going forward, but I absolutely think this is his high point. And there is always the concern that running QBs often have elite career lengths much more in common with running backs than QBs.

I don't disagree with anyone talking about regression. Duh, a player isn't going to post record season after record season.

What I don't get is the sell high. You guys really think after last year that people were buying the 50 TD price of Mahomes? Was anyone really adding a 1st and prospect to Watson/Wilson to go get Mahomes? I think that would be an obvious oversight, but hey it still wouldn't have been the worst deal because Mahomes is still QB1 and probably will be for years.

Sell high just doesn't seem like the right phrase when a players value was and still is QB1.

It would be like if people were screaming CMC is a sell high because he won't do what he did again (for a 3rd year in a row). But guess what? Most people don't even have him as RB1. If I could "sell high" on CMC and get Saquon and a pick, I would all day. But no one in their right mind is doing that. Similar to Mahomes last year...

I absolutely think there were plenty of people buying the 50 TD price of Mahomes last year, and giving up Watson/Wilson plus 1st for him. Not even sure why Wilson is in this discussion, he was viewed as practically a throw-in in any trade involving Mahomes at this time last year.

[Pullo Vision]

I've seen TJ Hockenson listed as a buy low but this isn't good- "His 54.2 percent catch-rate ranked 331st out of 357 tight ends who’ve seen at least 30 targets over the last 10 years." Ten. Years. One of the worst TE years in a decade.

https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/05/wor ... -football/

[Hottoddies]

I've seen TJ Hockenson listed as a buy low but this isn't good- "His 54.2 percent catch-rate ranked 331st out of 357 tight ends who’ve seen at least 30 targets over the last 10 years." Ten. Years. One of the worst TE years in a decade.

https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/05/wor ... -football/

So were those all catchable passes? With the QBs that Hockenson had to work with last year, I have my doubts on the quality of those passes.

[Shoreline Steamers]

meh, if i had to receive a testicle, it should at least be right!

Right testicle was horrible in scoring situations in college. Give me left testicle all day.

My testicles identify as position neutral, non-directional.

You're a Jock of All Trades.