J.K. Dobbins 1.01?

[gogobradyarm]

Can someone explain to me why Dobbins ranking is 35 overall and 66(!) in October ADP? Am the only one that doesn't understand how a 22 year old RB (albeit out for the season) has such low perceived value?

Looking back, Dobbins was my 1.01 talent wise in the 2020 draft class. I envisioned a huge year 2 (making a career arc, similar to Ray Rice), but he blew out his knee. That said, he has all the talent to make a huge return, and I would expect his ranking/ADP would rise significantly (somewhere to top 15-20 overall). That makes me almost question, why does rank even react to the injury given his age and likeliness to valut to RB1 performance once healthy? I love the talent, was sad to trade him for Dobbins, who I am not as high on (was part of a package deal).

[timeEd32]

He got hurt

He’s going to be in a committee

He’s unlikely to see a lot of targets

[Jigga94]

He got hurt

He’s going to be in a committee

He’s unlikely to see a lot of targets

A committee with Lamar and maybe Gus. He's probably a good buy if he's burning a contenders roster spot. I believe in the talent, but he's capped on rushing with Lamar and who knows how many Receptions he would command... The RB right now aren't getting targets, but that's moreso about the RB than the offense. I'd think Dobbins would open up an easy dump off option for Lamar

[FantasyFreak]

He got hurt

He’s going to be in a committee

He’s unlikely to see a lot of targets

A committee with Lamar and maybe Gus. He's probably a good buy if he's burning a contenders roster spot. I believe in the talent, but he's capped on rushing with Lamar and who knows how many Receptions he would command... The RB right now aren't getting targets, but that's moreso about the RB than the offense. I'd think Dobbins would open up an easy dump off option for Lamar

Yeah, they were working him in the passing game in camp quite a bit, if I recall, and the pre-season they did in the little that he played. He won't get peppered, but I think it will be more than some thing. The "committee" thing is so overblown, and really doesn't even hold much meaning anymore. Every team runs some sort of committee, and the ones that don't, the RB ends up hurt. See Barkley, CMC. Dobbins was super efficient with his touches, and fits perfectly with what Lamar does well, and that's partly why. He can hit the edge so quickly on those read options sweeps, and with Lamar holding guys for just a split second, it's super effective. Dobbins is a really talented player, and if you look at the back half of his rookie year, he was probably in line for a 1200-1300 yard season with double digit rushing TD's this year, had he not been hurt.

[Jigga94]

He got hurt

He’s going to be in a committee

He’s unlikely to see a lot of targets

A committee with Lamar and maybe Gus. He's probably a good buy if he's burning a contenders roster spot. I believe in the talent, but he's capped on rushing with Lamar and who knows how many Receptions he would command... The RB right now aren't getting targets, but that's moreso about the RB than the offense. I'd think Dobbins would open up an easy dump off option for Lamar

Yeah, they were working him in the passing game in camp quite a bit, if I recall, and the pre-season they did in the little that he played. He won't get peppered, but I think it will be more than some thing. The "committee" thing is so overblown, and really doesn't even hold much meaning anymore. Every team runs some sort of committee, and the ones that don't, the RB ends up hurt. See Barkley, CMC. Dobbins was super efficient with his touches, and fits perfectly with what Lamar does well, and that's partly why. He can hit the edge so quickly on those read options sweeps, and with Lamar holding guys for just a split second, it's super effective. Dobbins is a really talented player, and if you look at the back half of his rookie year, he was probably in line for a 1200-1300 yard season with double digit rushing TD's this year, had he not been hurt.

Really making me wish we had a RB with half the talent of Dobbins starting right now. Injuries suck

[mild]

The "committee" thing is so overblown, and really doesn't even hold much meaning anymore. Every team runs some sort of committee, and the ones that don't, the RB ends up hurt.

Really making me wish we had a RB with half the talent of Dobbins starting right now. Injuries suck

This, plus what FF said. He was averaging over 6 yards a carry last year and looked -extremely- explosive in the few preseason snaps he saw. The beat were singing his praises this year too - I recall one of them (maybe Hensley?) saying that if he played fantasy, he'd pick Dobbins. (The usual hype, but we saw it... he looked in ridiculous shape)

RB committees are everywhere. Prioritising the player of the two that can give you ceiling weeks as a game breaker is the play in modern fantasy. Dobbins is that player on the Ravens, and we are already re-evaluating them as being a super-power offense in 2021, now that Lamar is showing his arm off. I think he's coming back with a vengeance next year.

[timeEd32]

Don’t get me wrong, I like Dobbins and I think he’s a great guy to acquire at his current price. I was just commenting on why his value is where it is.

While I agree the committee thing can be overblown, it does matter if you’re not getting passing down / two minute work. It’s why even pre injury he should have never been ranked higher than someone like Swift.

[FantasyFreak]

Don’t get me wrong, I like Dobbins and I think he’s a great guy to acquire at his current price. I was just commenting on why his value is where it is.

While I agree the committee thing can be overblown, it does matter if you’re not getting passing down / two minute work. It’s why even pre injury he should have never been ranked higher than someone like Swift.

I believe Dobbins was set to be their 3rd down back this year.

[Sriracha]

Don’t get me wrong, I like Dobbins and I think he’s a great guy to acquire at his current price. I was just commenting on why his value is where it is.

While I agree the committee thing can be overblown, it does matter if you’re not getting passing down / two minute work. It’s why even pre injury he should have never been ranked higher than someone like Swift.

I believe Dobbins was set to be their 3rd down back this year.

He was.

And while Lamar will never be a checkdown king, BAL RBs have been getting a respectable 4 targets a game this year

[dipANDglide]

Sad times seeing him on IR. He was set up for a monster year

[Mike11]

I just bought him in a league. I'm looking at how BAL is using the RBs more in the passing game and how Lamar is evolving and I want a piece for next year. I think he has a top 6/8 ceiling and with his age if he comes out the gate hot could be set to exceed that. There's a lot of good RBs that are aging out so outside of JT, Swift, Harris and probably CMC/Barkley he could get right in there with them next season.

[mild]

I just bought him in a league. I'm looking at how BAL is using the RBs more in the passing game and how Lamar is evolving and I want a piece for next year. I think he has a top 6/8 ceiling and with his age if he comes out the gate hot could be set to exceed that. There's a lot of good RBs that are aging out so outside of JT, Swift, Harris and probably CMC/Barkley he could get right in there with them next season.

You are a wise man that can read the writing on the wall.

If I didn't already have him I'd be doing the same thing. He's a perfect acquisition for teams planning for 2022.

[nathanq42]

He is such a "jack of all trades" but he is more than just a jack, he is pretty damn near to elite all around IMO, athletic freak, tough runner, great in space, can catch well, fast as heck, iirc he is excellent at blocking. I dont think he really has any weaknesses, but nothing is quite top of class except for possibly blocking. JT best rusher/athlete, swift best out of the backfield, CEH allegedly best route runner (could also be swift here). But I'd say he is just about second best at everything

[tominansky]

I just bought him in a league. I'm looking at how BAL is using the RBs more in the passing game and how Lamar is evolving and I want a piece for next year. I think he has a top 6/8 ceiling and with his age if he comes out the gate hot could be set to exceed that. There's a lot of good RBs that are aging out so outside of JT, Swift, Harris and probably CMC/Barkley he could get right in there with them next season.

You are a wise man that can read the writing on the wall.

If I didn't already have him I'd be doing the same thing. He's a perfect acquisition for teams planning for 2022.

Was so close to selling as a contender for someone usable this year. Held off because of the talent I saw last year and at OSU. Sitting at 8-2 and rolling, looking at the first round bye. Giddy at the fact that we’ve got reinforcements coming in hot in ‘22. You can’t deny the eye test on this guy. The guy below commented on JK being 2nd best at basically everything. Agree, except for balance. This guy has Kamara level balance IMO.

[Mjvb5]

The one thing to remember, next year may be tough. Players typically take 18 months to FULLY recover from ACL injuries due to hamstring recovery/weakness.
See dalvin cook sophomore year