J.K. Dobbins 1.01?

[Jigga94]

I think Dobbins may produce more than people think year 1. Gus Edwards will not hold him off, and Ingram is another year older, and only carried a little over 200 times last year. I can also see them giving Lamar a few less designed runs. Looking at the Ravens schedule, although they finished as one of the leagues best teams, they got THE easiest schedule in the entire NFL based on opponents winning percentage. They are currently favoured for all 16 of their games. Translation: Lots of 2nd half running.

Great points. I've never thought Gus was anything special. He got great blocking and did well running straight through holes and taking the most yards available. Dobbins has to be above him on the depth chart.

One of the easiest schedules for sure. Might not be as an explosive offense this year (Baltimore straight up demolished some teams last year and gave them no chance), but I'd still expect them to control a lot of games. Would make sense if they want to utilize 2 RB, they keep the older one fresh and healthier. Ingram did get hurt at the end of last year and it may have hindered him in the playoffs

[bjd5211]

I think Dobbins may produce more than people think year 1. Gus Edwards will not hold him off, and Ingram is another year older, and only carried a little over 200 times last year. I can also see them giving Lamar a few less designed runs. Looking at the Ravens schedule, although they finished as one of the leagues best teams, they got THE easiest schedule in the entire NFL based on opponents winning percentage. They are currently favoured for all 16 of their games. Translation: Lots of 2nd half running.

Same thing happened with NE last year, just what happens sometimes when 14/16 games on the schedule are already predetermined years in advance. I expect the other 3 AFC North teams to be better than they were last year though, unless the Browns have one of their patented disaster seasons.

[kadun2]

Is it possible Gus is the second half grinder for big leads with such an easy schedule? I like Dobbins but I think this may be a factor to his total carries.
Another thing that came to mind is if they win most games then starters usually sit out late in the season when playoff spots are clinched. If Ingram is the “starter” of a 1A/1B situation then Dobbins may get some good run in fantasy playoff weeks.
Or a Gus/Hill combo?

[FantasyFreak]

Is it possible Gus is the second half grinder for big leads with such an easy schedule? I like Dobbins but I think this may be a factor to his total carries.
Another thing that came to mind is if they win most games then starters usually sit out late in the season when playoff spots are clinched. If Ingram is the “starter” of a 1A/1B situation then Dobbins may get some good run in fantasy playoff weeks.
Or a Gus/Hill combo?

I would think they plan to integrate Dobbins, as the quicker he finds his feet, the better for the future of their team.

[mgscott]

The top 4 RB's this year ( CEH, Dobbins, Swift, Taylor ) all ran behind top 10 college ranked offensive lines.

OSU, LSU, Wisconsin, and Georgia will always have good offensive lines because of recruiting. Can’t really fault the individual player (RB) for that. However, it is interesting to see how the RB’s yardage actually splits up. Very different to run behind a top 10 line and only beat up poor defenses vs. consistently show up against the best defensive lines. Dobbins seemed to legitimately get better when he played elite defenses. He always looked dominant. Dobbins also had the toughest schedule vs run defense compared to any of the R1-R3 RB’s in the draft this year.

It's not about faulting, it's about trying to figure out how to discern the difference between system backs that took advantage of elite OL's like Dayne, Ball, Weber, Michel, and countless others at Ohio State, Georgia, and Wisconsin, and truly elite guys like Chubb, Zeke, Herschel Walker for old timers, and Melvin Gordon. There are many reasons why teams aren't going 2005 style after.running backs in the blue chip zone (the famed Ronnie Brown, Caddy Williams, Cedric Benson top 10) anymore and it's not just RB health/career arc, it's also about the perception that analytics has shown you that you can get elite RB production if you've got a quality offensive line from middle of the road RB talent, and also get passing game help as well. Wisconsin gets elite RB production from EVERYONE. This is why I'm ALWAYS skittish about Wisconsin RB's, and was about Taylor as well until I saw the whole profile post combine. You've got a laundry list of guys producing good to great seasons literally every single season, and very few of them have actually turned into legit bell cow backs, the hit rate is sub 10% in terms of bell cows (they have produced a nice pile of satellite backs like T. Fletcher, Calhoun and White), before Gordon the only guy I could think of were Michael Bennett whose career was derailed by injury, while there are a ton of guys in that Brent Moss, Ron Dayne, Anthony Davis, PJ Hill, John Clay, Montee ball, it goes on and on and on. So figuring out the difference here is a big deal. I think there's more than enough to Taylor's profile to justify the expenditure of draft capital, but that was true of a lot of other guys as well.

A great offensive line can make middling talent look much better than it actually is. It's true. Doesn't mean Taylor or Dobbins will stink with normative blocking, it just means that you have dig pretty damn deep and not make assumptions that 2000 yards in Wisconsin's system proves all it needs to prove when guys like Ball, PJ Hill and John freaking Clay had no problem running behind those behemoths against those unathletic/slow Big-10 D's for 1500+ seasons w/o any trouble to speak of. I'm buying on all these guys, but Akers has done something none of them did, and it's prove himself with no help whatsoever from his teammates period. It's kind of the opposite coin of Dobbins consistent elite production no matter the competition. That matters too and is a reason I'm confused about his undervaluation pre-draft, he produced consistently against all elite defenses he faced, and wasn't just pounding on a bunch of slugs which was what the bulk of Taylor's career was. It's precisely why I've been willing to trade down to 1.03 repeatedly, I actually do think that while Taylor is fundamentally a superior prospect in terms of production and athleticism markers, it's Dobbins, rather than Taylor, that has proven it consistently against NFL caliber talent. Taylor was largely shut down in his biggest games of the year, Dobbins? Absolutely not. That being said, Dobbins also had a stud OL to help open those holes. It definitely gets to be a circular argument here where I end up feeling like a hamster whose nearly at the finish line of that wheel but is just deceiving himself. I love all these guys and end up finding reasons to find fault across the board, OL is definitely a concern for me. Having elite OL's can definitely camouflage the true talent and skill of a player which is why the combine is such a big deal (having Dobbins absolutely kill it in Nike testing when he was 18 addressed that problem for me, as did his cementing his athletic legacy in Ohio State training drills where apparently he's top 5 or higher at everything that matters).

A few things here stick out to me as being inaccurate. The misnomer that the Big 10 is full of big, slow non-athletes is laughable and debunked fairly easily by looking at the NFL. Big 10 is the second most represented conference in the NFL and there are multiple examples of athletes from Big 10 D's. Also, trying to say Akers performed against all elite defenses he faced isn't even close. He laid eggs against Clemson and Miami and had one good run in garbage time to salvage another egg against Florida. Taylor had 4 games against top 10 defenses and had one bad game of the 4.

I agree you have to take o-line and blocking into account when evaluating an RB, but it doesn't take much film work against top teams to see Taylor is special.

[FantasyFreak]

Also, trying to say Akers performed against all elite defenses he faced isn't even close. He laid eggs against Clemson and Miami and had one good run in garbage time to salvage another egg against Florida. Taylor had 4 games against top 10 defenses and had one bad game of the 4.

I agree you have to take o-line and blocking into account when evaluating an RB, but it doesn't take much film work against top teams to see Taylor is special.

It's precisely why I've been willing to trade down to 1.03 repeatedly, I actually do think that while Taylor is fundamentally a superior prospect in terms of production and athleticism markers, it's Dobbins, rather than Taylor, that has proven it consistently against NFL caliber talent. Taylor was largely shut down in his biggest games of the year, Dobbins? Absolutely not.

it's Dobbins, rather than Taylor, that has proven it consistently against NFL caliber talent. Taylor was largely shut down in his biggest games of the year, Dobbins

Pretty sure he said Dobbins, not Akers.

[mgscott]

Also, trying to say Akers performed against all elite defenses he faced isn't even close. He laid eggs against Clemson and Miami and had one good run in garbage time to salvage another egg against Florida. Taylor had 4 games against top 10 defenses and had one bad game of the 4.

I agree you have to take o-line and blocking into account when evaluating an RB, but it doesn't take much film work against top teams to see Taylor is special.

It's precisely why I've been willing to trade down to 1.03 repeatedly, I actually do think that while Taylor is fundamentally a superior prospect in terms of production and athleticism markers, it's Dobbins, rather than Taylor, that has proven it consistently against NFL caliber talent. Taylor was largely shut down in his biggest games of the year, Dobbins? Absolutely not.

it's Dobbins, rather than Taylor, that has proven it consistently against NFL caliber talent. Taylor was largely shut down in his biggest games of the year, Dobbins

Pretty sure he said Dobbins, not Akers.

OK. Maybe I got that wrong. I saw he entered Akers in the conversation and thought he was still going with him. Still think Taylor was far from shut down in his biggest games of the year.

[FantasyFreak]

Also, trying to say Akers performed against all elite defenses he faced isn't even close. He laid eggs against Clemson and Miami and had one good run in garbage time to salvage another egg against Florida. Taylor had 4 games against top 10 defenses and had one bad game of the 4.

I agree you have to take o-line and blocking into account when evaluating an RB, but it doesn't take much film work against top teams to see Taylor is special.

It's precisely why I've been willing to trade down to 1.03 repeatedly, I actually do think that while Taylor is fundamentally a superior prospect in terms of production and athleticism markers, it's Dobbins, rather than Taylor, that has proven it consistently against NFL caliber talent. Taylor was largely shut down in his biggest games of the year, Dobbins? Absolutely not.

it's Dobbins, rather than Taylor, that has proven it consistently against NFL caliber talent. Taylor was largely shut down in his biggest games of the year, Dobbins

Pretty sure he said Dobbins, not Akers.

OK. Maybe I got that wrong. I saw he entered Akers in the conversation and thought he was still going with him. Still think Taylor was far from shut down in his biggest games of the year.

I love JT. He didn't do well at all the first game vs Ohio St., but then ran all over them in the Big 10 Championship game. He did not do much vs Oregon. To me, JT is not a special back, but he is a very, very good back. He lacks the ability to create on his own in order for me to categorize him as that. He is a really good player, and in the right situation will be an elite producer. He does so much well, and has elite speed, and at that size, once he hits that speed, good luck. He just does not have the ability to create much if the play breaks down, or if he is forced off the play behind the LOS compared to a guy like Barkley or CMC. He's just not at that level of player. Nobody in this class is, though. A guy like CEH is much better than JT at creating on his own, but JT is better at other things to CEH. That's what makes this class so fun and diverse. There really isn't an elite prospect, but quite a few that could produce elite numbers, and it's an educated guess as to which one will be the best.

[mgscott]

Pretty sure he said Dobbins, not Akers.

OK. Maybe I got that wrong. I saw he entered Akers in the conversation and thought he was still going with him. Still think Taylor was far from shut down in his biggest games of the year.

I love JT. He didn't do well at all the first game vs Ohio St., but then ran all over them in the Big 10 Championship game. He did not do much vs Oregon. To me, JT is not a special back, but he is a very, very good back. He lacks the ability to create on his own in order for me to categorize him as that. He is a really good player, and in the right situation will be an elite producer. He does so much well, and has elite speed, and at that size, once he hits that speed, good luck. He just does not have the ability to create much if the play breaks down, or if he is forced off the play behind the LOS compared to a guy like Barkley or CMC. He's just not at that level of player. Nobody in this class is, though. A guy like CEH is much better than JT at creating on his own, but JT is better at other things to CEH. That's what makes this class so fun and diverse. There really isn't an elite prospect, but quite a few that could produce elite numbers, and it's an educated guess as to which one will be the best.

137 total yards against Oregon isn't bad at all. Not his best game, but solid against a tough defense. I don't think Taylor is the same kind of elite at Barkley or CMC, but as you said, few are. I think his speed and power combined with his one cut run ability is elite. I do agree that the top 5 backs are all very different types of backs, which make them hard to rate.

[FantasyFreak]

OK. Maybe I got that wrong. I saw he entered Akers in the conversation and thought he was still going with him. Still think Taylor was far from shut down in his biggest games of the year.

I love JT. He didn't do well at all the first game vs Ohio St., but then ran all over them in the Big 10 Championship game. He did not do much vs Oregon. To me, JT is not a special back, but he is a very, very good back. He lacks the ability to create on his own in order for me to categorize him as that. He is a really good player, and in the right situation will be an elite producer. He does so much well, and has elite speed, and at that size, once he hits that speed, good luck. He just does not have the ability to create much if the play breaks down, or if he is forced off the play behind the LOS compared to a guy like Barkley or CMC. He's just not at that level of player. Nobody in this class is, though. A guy like CEH is much better than JT at creating on his own, but JT is better at other things to CEH. That's what makes this class so fun and diverse. There really isn't an elite prospect, but quite a few that could produce elite numbers, and it's an educated guess as to which one will be the best.

137 total yards against Oregon isn't bad at all. Not his best game, but solid against a tough defense. I don't think Taylor is the same kind of elite at Barkley or CMC, but as you said, few are. I think his speed and power combined with his one cut run ability is elite. I do agree that the top 5 backs are all very different types of backs, which make them hard to rate.

For real. I look at JT's as a Chubb type ceiling as a producer, and I think there's a good chance he gets to that ceiling. Capable of 1500 yards rushing, but I think he's a 30-40 type reception guy. That is something I'd take all day. Top 5-8 PPR back, consistently, and if he can get into the end zone enough, top 5 in a year or two. I paid a heavy sum in my recent auction to grab him as my highest bidder player.

[esloan35]

The Ravens will run the brakes off Dobbins if he can get it done.

[esloan35]

Traded CEH for Dobbins and a 2021 1st, with some other nuggets mixed in. Don’t hate it!

You also gave up Josh Kelley and Bryan Edwards. Makes it closer. I'd still want the Dobbins side.

What was the full trade here? If you gave up other pieces, that makes a big difference. I like trading CEH for Dobbins and a 2021 1st, but like it a lot less if you have to also give Edwards and Kelley.

Here was the trade. I am team A and have 3-2021 1st. It was the 2022 1st and I am still good with it. I am one of those that thinks the 2020 season is going to be a COVID mess so I am looking long vision.

Team A Gets

RB JK Dobbins, BAL
RB Justice Hill, BAL
TE Tyler Eifert, JAC
TE Josh Oliver, JAC
S Taylor Rapp, LAR
Year 2022 round 1 draft pick from Giant Killers

Team B gets

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KCC
RB Joshua Kelley, LAC
WR Bryan Edwards, LVR

[Jigga94]

Got him at 1.07 for team 2. Wasn't expecting him to be there.

[kadun2]

Got him at 1.07 for team 2. Wasn't expecting him to be there.

Nice

What RBs went before him?

[Jigga94]

Got him at 1.07 for team 2. Wasn't expecting him to be there.

Nice

What RBs went before him?

It went

Burrow
CEH
Jeudy
Tua
Lamb
JT
Dobbins
Swift
Ruggs