J.K. Dobbins 1.01?

[FantasyFreak]

I think that was me. I extended it to Jacobs as well. Lots of similarities...

It was, but I also saw it on Twitter somewhere. So you saw what someone else did, there too.

Solid. BTW I've seen some non-ESPN guys have CEH at RB 1 overall. Some are pretty good overall, so I was a bit surprised. I think they credit his really good footwork, and his in-game acceleration, as reasons why he's special. He definitely has 3-down potential like Swift, and I can see a world in which CEH does live up to the hype, but I think selecting him in the 1.1-1.3 range like where Dobbins is supposed to go is too risky. In some way I can see a higher ceiling for CEH, but I also see a much, much, lower floor. If I was dead set on selecting him, I would most certainly trade back and negate some of that extra risk.

If Dobbins is anything like the muscle hamster or Jacobs then I think that's great value for where he's being picked. I'm hoping this is the case, as I have 1.3/1.5 in 1 league.

I think guys like Bucky Brooks etc are propping him up. I just can't get on board with it with his profile. CEH at 2 and Taylor at 5? Come on, Bucky. Then again, this guy had Haskins over Kyler, and had Riley Ridley as a first round WR at the end of February last year. No wonder he doesn't have a job in the NFL anymore.

[DJB]

So this was from Ohio State a few years ago. Keep in mind the hand time starts, but McLaurin, and Campbells are fairly close, to their combine times. In fact, Campbell's time adjusted for .05 seconds is exactly the same as his combine time. He was supposedly 208 pounds when he tested. Coming out of HS he was 202, so I suspect he may have been closer to that.

https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/08/f ... _buck.html

The 40 time was 4.32, the ten yard split was 1.44. For some reason, his vert was only 36.5, down from 43.1 from his Nike combine, which is a big discrepancy, perhaps due to weight gain? He only gained 6 pounds from that, though. His broad was 10 feet, 9 inches. In 20 yards, he was faster than both McLaurin and Campbell. I am really interested in the discrepancy in his 40 time and vert between this and the Nike Combine. Either way, he tested really well in both, but it is strange.

This does somewhat line up with what I see. I see Dobbins with great explosion in short distances after the handoff, but I don't see a gear after that. One that allows his to break off 85 yarders, the gear I see with JT.

If Dobbins had those numbers at this years combine we would be hearing way more talk of him being the #1 RB in the draft with Taylor and Swift

[Cameron Giles]

Why is it absurd to value CEH over Dobbins? Bold take, ok maybe... But absurd?
Dobbins is not a first round RB, and not many are suggesting that he will be. So he is basically being viewed as a committee RB, like most RBs in the NFL, but on this draft board he is being valued as some stud player which he is not. He is not overly big or powerful, not fast, not great agility to make people miss and not shown To be a great receiver. This player is going to join a NFL team and demand the lion share of touches?
CEH too will project as a committee RB, but he had shown great ability in the receiving game.
And why does CEH get knocked for playing in a great offense? Which he surely did, but when did Dobbins play with sub par talent at Ohio State?

In PPR fantasy, I rate CEH over Dobbins and don't think it's absurd.

For what it's worth, NFL.com draft grades has CEH at 6.39, Dobbins at 6.38. it's not just ESPN that likes CEH game and think it will translate well to the NFL.

It feels like Dobbins is a more complete player though. I think he's a better receiver than CEH is an early down back. That said, CEH, while being shorter, is not weak, and can certainly play that role in the NFL. It's just a matter of whether a team believes that's in their best interest.

It seems like the hope with CEH is that he's a Devonta Freeman type of RB, though most did not expect Devonta Freeman to become the type of player he became to begin with. There's some similarities in their games though.

[Kmani6]

Why is it absurd to value CEH over Dobbins? Bold take, ok maybe... But absurd?
Dobbins is not a first round RB, and not many are suggesting that he will be. So he is basically being viewed as a committee RB, like most RBs in the NFL, but on this draft board he is being valued as some stud player which he is not. He is not overly big or powerful, not fast, not great agility to make people miss and not shown To be a great receiver. This player is going to join a NFL team and demand the lion share of touches?
CEH too will project as a committee RB, but he had shown great ability in the receiving game.
And why does CEH get knocked for playing in a great offense? Which he surely did, but when did Dobbins play with sub par talent at Ohio State?

In PPR fantasy, I rate CEH over Dobbins and don't think it's absurd.

For what it's worth, NFL.com draft grades has CEH at 6.39, Dobbins at 6.38. it's not just ESPN that likes CEH game and think it will translate well to the NFL.

It feels like Dobbins is a more complete player though. I think he's a better receiver than CEH is an early down back. That said, CEH, while being shorter, is not weak, and can certainly play that role in the NFL. It's just a matter of whether a team believes that's in their best interest.

It seems like the hope with CEH is that he's a Devonta Freeman type of RB, though most did not expect Devonta Freeman to become the type of player he became to begin with. There's some similarities in their games though.

Exactly. I never mentioned on this forum my comp for CEH, but its literally Freeman. I heard that somewhere and it stuck with me hard. CEH's path to RB1 is exactly the same as Freeman's. Insane footwork, good agility, good acceleration, and great toughness- both can hit hard. For Freeman he ended up with 3 really good seasons, but the injuries always held him back, so hopefully CEH doesn't have those concerns.

[FantasyFreak]

Why is it absurd to value CEH over Dobbins? Bold take, ok maybe... But absurd?
Dobbins is not a first round RB, and not many are suggesting that he will be. So he is basically being viewed as a committee RB, like most RBs in the NFL, but on this draft board he is being valued as some stud player which he is not. He is not overly big or powerful, not fast, not great agility to make people miss and not shown To be a great receiver. This player is going to join a NFL team and demand the lion share of touches?
CEH too will project as a committee RB, but he had shown great ability in the receiving game.
And why does CEH get knocked for playing in a great offense? Which he surely did, but when did Dobbins play with sub par talent at Ohio State?

In PPR fantasy, I rate CEH over Dobbins and don't think it's absurd.

For what it's worth, NFL.com draft grades has CEH at 6.39, Dobbins at 6.38. it's not just ESPN that likes CEH game and think it will translate well to the NFL.

It feels like Dobbins is a more complete player though. I think he's a better receiver than CEH is an early down back. That said, CEH, while being shorter, is not weak, and can certainly play that role in the NFL. It's just a matter of whether a team believes that's in their best interest.

It seems like the hope with CEH is that he's a Devonta Freeman type of RB, though most did not expect Devonta Freeman to become the type of player he became to begin with. There's some similarities in their games though.

Exactly. I never mentioned on this forum my comp for CEH, but its literally Freeman. I heard that somewhere and it stuck with me hard. CEH's path to RB1 is exactly the same as Freeman's. Insane footwork, good agility, good acceleration, and great toughness- both can hit hard. For Freeman he ended up with 3 really good seasons, but the injuries always held him back, so hopefully CEH doesn't have those concerns.

Yeah, I second this. Well. third this, I guess. CEH's ceiling is an outlier, IMO, and that's not someone I'm investing in as a top 3 RB. Meanwhile Dobbins has been on the radar since High School as a 99th percentile athlete, and then produced more yards rushing as a freshman than CEH did in the greatest offense of all time as a junior. Not to mention topping Zeke, and Eddie George and everyone else in Ohio State history in single season rushing as a junior. It's apples and oranges IMO.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Since we’re talking about comps, here’s who I have for Dobbins. These are guys who weighed 204-214, ran 4.45 or faster (I think a reasonable projection) and were drafted on day 1 or 2. I think it’s a pretty strong list. (I used profootballreference for the 40 data, so forgive me if some of it is just wrong.)
Clinton Portis
Tevin Coleman
Joseph Addai
Demarco Murray
Darren McFadden
Tatum Bell
Lamar Miller
Michael Bennett
Maurice Jones-Drew
Jerious Norwood
JJ Arrington
Felix Jones
Kenyan Drake
DeAngelo Williams
Jerick McKinnon

[Kmani6]

Since we’re talking about comps, here’s who I have for Dobbins. These are guys who weighed 204-214, ran 4.45 or faster (I think a reasonable projection) and were drafted on day 1 or 2. I think it’s a pretty strong list. (I used profootballreference for the 40 data, so forgive me if some of it is just wrong.)
Clinton Portis
Tevin Coleman
Joseph Addai
Demarco Murray
Darren McFadden
Tatum Bell
Lamar Miller
Michael Bennett
Maurice Jones-Drew
Jerious Norwood
JJ Arrington
Felix Jones
Kenyan Drake
DeAngelo Williams
Jerick McKinnon

Comps typically factor how the player plays, not just athletic measurable. Otherwise, just like this list, you’ll be coming up with 20 comps for every player. For example, I don’t think Dobbins plays much like McKinnon or Drake.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Since we’re talking about comps, here’s who I have for Dobbins. These are guys who weighed 204-214, ran 4.45 or faster (I think a reasonable projection) and were drafted on day 1 or 2. I think it’s a pretty strong list. (I used profootballreference for the 40 data, so forgive me if some of it is just wrong.)
Clinton Portis
Tevin Coleman
Joseph Addai
Demarco Murray
Darren McFadden
Tatum Bell
Lamar Miller
Michael Bennett
Maurice Jones-Drew
Jerious Norwood
JJ Arrington
Felix Jones
Kenyan Drake
DeAngelo Williams
Jerick McKinnon

Comps typically factor how the player plays, not just athletic measurable. Otherwise, just like this list, you’ll be coming up with 20 comps for every player. For example, I don’t think Dobbins plays much like McKinnon or Drake.

Yeah, which is why subjective comps aren’t useful. Most players’ range of outcomes isn’t the 2-3 guys that they’re comped to. I’d rather look at the things that we know matter - size, speed, draft capital- and look at all the data.

I think that looking at this objective data and drawing your own conclusions about which guys in the list he reminds you of is way more helpful than comparing him to a 223 lb bell cow who ran a 4.55 with no justification.

[Kmani6]

Since we’re talking about comps, here’s who I have for Dobbins. These are guys who weighed 204-214, ran 4.45 or faster (I think a reasonable projection) and were drafted on day 1 or 2. I think it’s a pretty strong list. (I used profootballreference for the 40 data, so forgive me if some of it is just wrong.)
Clinton Portis
Tevin Coleman
Joseph Addai
Demarco Murray
Darren McFadden
Tatum Bell
Lamar Miller
Michael Bennett
Maurice Jones-Drew
Jerious Norwood
JJ Arrington
Felix Jones
Kenyan Drake
DeAngelo Williams
Jerick McKinnon

Comps typically factor how the player plays, not just athletic measurable. Otherwise, just like this list, you’ll be coming up with 20 comps for every player. For example, I don’t think Dobbins plays much like McKinnon or Drake.

Yeah, which is why subjective comps aren’t useful. Most players’ range of outcomes isn’t the 2-3 guys that they’re comped to. I’d rather look at the things that we know matter - size, speed, draft capital- and look at all the data.

I think that looking at this objective data and drawing your own conclusions about which guys in the list he reminds you of is way more helpful than comparing him to a 223 lb bell cow who ran a 4.55 with no justification.

I’m just stating what comps are typically understood to be- who the player reminds you of. Not everything is meant to be as analytical as you make it. But sure go ahead and comp JK Dobbins to McKinnon. I think I like that more than Martin/Jacobs actually.

Also the Jacobs comp wasn’t mine it was directly from Harris Football. He’s probably the longest fantasy analyst to date (20+ years), so I think he has a decent idea of what a comp means. The Martin comp was my first thought, and while he happens to be 5 9, 209, just like Dobbins, he also plays stylistically very similar.

Dobbins ran a 4.44 at age 17 (4 years back), and being10 pounds lighter. You’re prediction of his 40 time is very much subjective by nature, so I guess you’re whole list is invalid. He’s probably a 4.45-4.50 guy.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Comps typically factor how the player plays, not just athletic measurable. Otherwise, just like this list, you’ll be coming up with 20 comps for every player. For example, I don’t think Dobbins plays much like McKinnon or Drake.

Yeah, which is why subjective comps aren’t useful. Most players’ range of outcomes isn’t the 2-3 guys that they’re comped to. I’d rather look at the things that we know matter - size, speed, draft capital- and look at all the data.

I think that looking at this objective data and drawing your own conclusions about which guys in the list he reminds you of is way more helpful than comparing him to a 223 lb bell cow who ran a 4.55 with no justification.

I’m just stating what comps are typically understood to be- who the player reminds you of. Not everything is meant to be as analytical as you make it. But sure go ahead and comp JK Dobbins to McKinnon. I think I like that more than Martin/Jacobs actually. Also the Jacobs comp wasn’t mine it was directly from Harris Football. He’s probably the longest fantasy analyst to date (20+ years), so I think he has a decent idea of what a comp means. The Martin comp was my own, and while he happens to be 5 9, 209, just like Dobbins, he also plays stylistically very similar.

Also, Dobbins ran a 4.44 at age 17 (4 years back), and 10 pounds lighter. You’re prediction is very subjective by nature, so I guess you’re whole list is invalid. He’s probably a 4.45-4.50 guy.

Oh good, more AngryBoy word-salad. I don’t know what you’re talking about with Martin. He weighed in at 223. He’s not a similar athlete to Dobbins. They’re just not objectively similar players.

As for his speed, it’s totally possible that he’s slower. JT ran 4.42 at 208, while Akers ran 4.41 at 213. His range could be different. I’m guessing based on what I’ve seen posted. Maybe he runs 4.4-4.45 or slower at his pro day (assuming they ever have it), so adjusted he’s a 4.45-4.50 player. If that’s the case, I’ll adjust the window and we’ll look at different players.

A good criticism would have been “hey, we don’t know that he’s going to run that fast, maybe we should broaden the 40 window” which is way different than “durrr that’s not what player comps are durr”.

In any case, broadening it to 4.5 adds some guys who make it a notably worse list.
Donald Brown
Charles Sims
Shane Vereen
Dalvin Cook
Darrell Henderson
Miles Sanders
Bishop Sankey
Tre Mason
Ryan Moats
Glen Coffee (retired after one season for non-football reasons)

Hopefully he runs before the draft, but if he doesn’t, the water is much muddier.

[Kmani6]

Yeah, which is why subjective comps aren’t useful. Most players’ range of outcomes isn’t the 2-3 guys that they’re comped to. I’d rather look at the things that we know matter - size, speed, draft capital- and look at all the data.

I think that looking at this objective data and drawing your own conclusions about which guys in the list he reminds you of is way more helpful than comparing him to a 223 lb bell cow who ran a 4.55 with no justification.

I’m just stating what comps are typically understood to be- who the player reminds you of. Not everything is meant to be as analytical as you make it. But sure go ahead and comp JK Dobbins to McKinnon. I think I like that more than Martin/Jacobs actually. Also the Jacobs comp wasn’t mine it was directly from Harris Football. He’s probably the longest fantasy analyst to date (20+ years), so I think he has a decent idea of what a comp means. The Martin comp was my own, and while he happens to be 5 9, 209, just like Dobbins, he also plays stylistically very similar.

Also, Dobbins ran a 4.44 at age 17 (4 years back), and 10 pounds lighter. You’re prediction is very subjective by nature, so I guess you’re whole list is invalid. He’s probably a 4.45-4.50 guy.

Oh good, more AngryBoy word-salad. I don’t know what you’re talking about with Martin. He weighed in at 223. He’s not a similar athlete to Dobbins. They’re just not objectively similar players.

As for his speed, it’s totally possible that he’s slower. JT ran 4.42 at 208, while Akers ran 4.41 at 213. His range could be different. I’m guessing based on what I’ve seen posted. Maybe he runs 4.4-4.45 or slower at his pro day (assuming they ever have it), so adjusted he’s a 4.45-4.50 player. If that’s the case, I’ll adjust the window and we’ll look at different players.

A good criticism would have been “hey, we don’t know that he’s going to run that fast, maybe we should broaden the 40 window” which is way different than “durrr that’s not what player comps are durr”.

In any case, broadening it to 4.5 adds some guys who make it a notably worse list.
Donald Brown
Charles Sims
Shane Vereen
Dalvin Cook
Darrell Henderson
Miles Sanders
Bishop Sankey
Tre Mason
Ryan Moats
Glen Coffee (retired after one season for non-football reasons)

Hopefully he runs before the draft, but if he doesn’t, the water is much muddier.

Actually, NFL.com had his weight at 210. Martin played many years at 205-208 range based on what he said himself, even though the roster listed him at 223.


Swift, Akers, and Dobbins were all timed at the Nike event.
Just as you said Akers ran a 4.41, which is now a 4.47. However, Swift ran a 4.43, which is now a 4.48-4.49. Very likely Dobbins 4.44 could be 4.50 with his 10 pound weight added.

Your subjective estimations of Dobbins 40 time is pointless, and shouldn’t even be a factor in making of your comp lists.

But if you did that you would have no analytics to even factor and that scares you, so you resort to subjectively organizing players into random lists now (with made up 40 times as you see fit). Oh boy. Thanks for 30 players that I can now compare Dobbins with!

If you could generate the same lists for the other 5-6 top RB prospects, I’d love to go over 150 comparisons made by you.

I’ll stick to the Dobbins comp with Martin.

[OhCruelestRanter]

If you’re comparing Doug Martin (5’9”, 223, 4.55) to JK Dobbins (5’9, 209, 4.??) you’re just doing this wrong. It’s a bad comparison, and everybody else making it is wrong too. There’s no objective similarity between them. It’s not useful for player projection.

Somebody get AngryBoy a popsicle and a blanket before he gets himself too tuckered out again.

[Hottoddies]

Since we’re talking about comps, here’s who I have for Dobbins. These are guys who weighed 204-214, ran 4.45 or faster (I think a reasonable projection) and were drafted on day 1 or 2. I think it’s a pretty strong list. (I used profootballreference for the 40 data, so forgive me if some of it is just wrong.)
Clinton Portis
Tevin Coleman
Joseph Addai
Demarco Murray
Darren McFadden
Tatum Bell
Lamar Miller
Michael Bennett
Maurice Jones-Drew
Jerious Norwood
JJ Arrington
Felix Jones
Kenyan Drake
DeAngelo Williams
Jerick McKinnon

Comps typically factor how the player plays, not just athletic measurable. Otherwise, just like this list, you’ll be coming up with 20 comps for every player. For example, I don’t think Dobbins plays much like McKinnon or Drake.

Yeah, which is why subjective comps aren’t useful. Most players’ range of outcomes isn’t the 2-3 guys that they’re comped to. I’d rather look at the things that we know matter - size, speed, draft capital- and look at all the data.

I think that looking at this objective data and drawing your own conclusions about which guys in the list he reminds you of is way more helpful than comparing him to a 223 lb bell cow who ran a 4.55 with no justification.

Player comps can mean different things to different people. I do believe that "old school" pro scouts see it as how a player compares to another stylistically within a certain range of physical size and athletic ability. Whereas analytical fantasy football experts see it mostly as an athletic comparison within a range of physical size and sometimes take a players style, or ability to play the game of football, into consideration. Although number seems like they shouldn't be subjective, on their own they don't tell the whole story and can have their own shortcomings.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Comps typically factor how the player plays, not just athletic measurable. Otherwise, just like this list, you’ll be coming up with 20 comps for every player. For example, I don’t think Dobbins plays much like McKinnon or Drake.

Yeah, which is why subjective comps aren’t useful. Most players’ range of outcomes isn’t the 2-3 guys that they’re comped to. I’d rather look at the things that we know matter - size, speed, draft capital- and look at all the data.

I think that looking at this objective data and drawing your own conclusions about which guys in the list he reminds you of is way more helpful than comparing him to a 223 lb bell cow who ran a 4.55 with no justification.

Player comps can mean different things to different people. I do believe that "old school" pro scouts see it as how a player compares to another stylistically within a certain range of physical size and athletic ability. Whereas analytical fantasy football experts see it mostly as an athletic comparison within a range of physical size and sometimes take a players style, or ability to play the game of football, into consideration. Although number seems like they shouldn't be subjective, on their own they don't tell the whole story and can have their own shortcomings.

Good post. I don’t disagree with you that people think of different things with player comps. My point is that making a comp based on what you think stylistically isn’t useful, while looking at players with similar prospect profiles can be helpful.

[remedy29]

For what it's worth, MJD ranks the RBs as; Swift, CEH, Dobbins, Akers, Zack Moss, Jonathan Taylor.

These player rankings are not set in stone, different people, and teams will have different view points. It all depends how a player profiles into the NFL teams system. CEH profile seems obvious with his passing skill set and quickness. Dobbins is supposed to be a 208 lb, 250+ carry bruiser? In PPR, I'm going with CEH over Dobbins.

His ranking of Zack Miss so high is interesting, he may be a good pick at the end of round 1.

JT ranked 6th, and after Miss is surprising.

https://amp.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30000 ... AEA&sr=amp