Does Anyone Still Believe: N'Keal Harry Edition

[FantasyFreak]

Kevin White the guy that the Bears picked who was always hurt. He's on the 9ers squad now. While injuries can be an excuse for a guy not producing they can also set a young player with potential on a bad trajectory.

#Sarcasm

lmao. You could be serious at this point. He's a forgotten name in 2020.

I know. It's all, good, man.

[thebeast]

I can't argue at all whether Harry looks good or not. But I can make these points;

1) Harry has not been able to attend a normal off-season and pre-season, ever. Year 1 due to injury and Year 2 due to Covid.
2) He's only played in 12 NFL games so far.
3) He's only 22 years old.
4) He's been preparing to play with 3 different QB's within the span of a single year.
5) He has improved from year 1 to year 2.
6) He has shown some flashes of good play.
7) His resume on paper (draft pedigree, size and athleticism, college production) is superb.

We all know he hasn't been good. It's more to say here is a player that is losing value, but with his resume he's exactly the type of player to keep betting on. Whether you think he looks like he can't run routes or can't separate doesn't really matter. As long as it's not JJAWS level of bad then it doesn't really matter. How many people thought about Claypool the same exact way? Can't run routes, can't separate. Most did.

Harry reminds me a lot of Derrick Henry. Both excellent resumes coming into the league but they just didn't fire right away. People forget that for 44 NFL games, many if not the majority of dynasty players thought Derrick Henry was garbage. Harry is at 12 games played right now. Not every player is wired to come into the league and dominate right away. Every player is different and sometimes it just takes more time for some than for others. I really liked DeVante Parkers talent in college and it literally took 5 years for him to grow up and mature and translate it to the NFL.

Again, I'm fading Harry just like everyone else. I'm not writing this to convince anyone that he's good, I don't know if he's good either. I'm more responding to the people who are certain that Harry is a lost cause, that he's a bust, that he's droppable, that he's a garbage player, etc. It looks bleak but we have seen this path before. This is exactly the type of player you should be betting on when their value craters for the reasons I outlined above.

If I'm trying to buy, no i'm not paying a 1st and i'm probably not paying a 2nd straight up either. But given the comments here and other trades I've seen, maybe adding to a 3rd would get it done and I'd do that all day.

This is spot on. For a few years, everyone was calling Davante Adams a bust and now he's probably the best WR in the league. Not every player (coupled with situation) can come in a make an immediate impact.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Appreciate your insight. How do you place him regarding your other thread regarding rookie receivers breaking out their first year? Seems like he’s getting to be a long shot base on those numbers.

Oh, Harry would be below any rookie wr with a pulse for me for sure

[Ice]

I can't argue at all whether Harry looks good or not. But I can make these points;

1) Harry has not been able to attend a normal off-season and pre-season, ever. Year 1 due to injury and Year 2 due to Covid.
2) He's only played in 12 NFL games so far.
3) He's only 22 years old.
4) He's been preparing to play with 3 different QB's within the span of a single year.
5) He has improved from year 1 to year 2.
6) He has shown some flashes of good play.
7) His resume on paper (draft pedigree, size and athleticism, college production) is superb.

We all know he hasn't been good. It's more to say here is a player that is losing value, but with his resume he's exactly the type of player to keep betting on. Whether you think he looks like he can't run routes or can't separate doesn't really matter. As long as it's not JJAWS level of bad then it doesn't really matter. How many people thought about Claypool the same exact way? Can't run routes, can't separate. Most did.

Harry reminds me a lot of Derrick Henry. Both excellent resumes coming into the league but they just didn't fire right away. People forget that for 44 NFL games, many if not the majority of dynasty players thought Derrick Henry was garbage. Harry is at 12 games played right now. Not every player is wired to come into the league and dominate right away. Every player is different and sometimes it just takes more time for some than for others. I really liked DeVante Parkers talent in college and it literally took 5 years for him to grow up and mature and translate it to the NFL.

Again, I'm fading Harry just like everyone else. I'm not writing this to convince anyone that he's good, I don't know if he's good either. I'm more responding to the people who are certain that Harry is a lost cause, that he's a bust, that he's droppable, that he's a garbage player, etc. It looks bleak but we have seen this path before. This is exactly the type of player you should be betting on when their value craters for the reasons I outlined above.

If I'm trying to buy, no i'm not paying a 1st and i'm probably not paying a 2nd straight up either. But given the comments here and other trades I've seen, maybe adding to a 3rd would get it done and I'd do that all day.

This is spot on. For a few years, everyone was calling Davante Adams a bust and now he's probably the best WR in the league. Not every player (coupled with situation) can come in a make an immediate impact.

Think you got the wrong Devante

Adams could run routes. Not sure Harry can even spell route at this point. Maybe he will turn into Devante Parker by year 5.

[mild]

Sounds like you're talking about Kevin White here.

Who?

Kevin White the guy that the Bears picked who was always hurt. He's on the 9ers squad now. While injuries can be an excuse for a guy not producing they can also set a young player with potential on a bad trajectory.

Who?

[blemly]

Just sold Harry for a projected mid ‘21 3rd. I hate selling “low” on a player but my roster is crammed and I needed to make room for Goedart and CMC coming off IR.

I didn’t draft him and bought this offseason in a package, so it stings a bit less, but he has been throughly disappointing thus far in his career.

[DLF3000]

Just sold Harry for a projected mid ‘21 3rd. I hate selling “low” on a player but my roster is crammed and I needed to make room for Goedart and CMC coming off IR.

I didn’t draft him and bought this offseason in a package, so it stings a bit less, but he has been throughly disappointing thus far in his career.

That's not low. He's a zero - a 3rd, which is meh, is still a huge win.

[Orenthal Shames]

Nope

/thread

[jordanzs]

Who?

Kevin White the guy that the Bears picked who was always hurt. He's on the 9ers squad now. While injuries can be an excuse for a guy not producing they can also set a young player with potential on a bad trajectory.

Who?

Hmmmm, never heard of her.....

[Dynasty DeLorean]

So I remembered commenting on someone's post about what the hit rate is on guys who don't play much their rookie year. May have been this thread or another. Anyway I went to look it up because I was interested and the results led me back here.

From 1995-2015, 465 rookie wr's played in 8 games or less. Only 5 of them, or roughly 1%, went on to find success. So the hit rate is abysmal. The big jump to me appears to happen with rookies with 9+ games played. 8 or less and you only have 1 hit per group, 9 or more is where you start getting multiple hits per group and a higher hit rate as well.

The thing that led me here is that many of the hits in the 8 or less group looked like Harry their first 2 years.

8 or less games played;

Studs
Vincent Jackson – 8 games (2nd round pick) (59 yards year 1)(453 yards year 2)
Amani Toomer – 7 games (2nd round pick) (12 yards year 1)(263 yards year 2)
Donald Driver – 6 games (7th round pick) (31 yards year 1)(322 yards year 2)
Santana Moss – 5 games (1st round pick) (40 yards year 1)(433 yards year 2)

Good
Victor Cruz – 3 games (UDFA) (0 yards year 1) (1536 yards year 2)


If you adjust for looking at players with 8 or less games played and top 2 round draft pedigree, you find 23 results, and the percentages jump up from 1% to 13%. It's not much but it's something.

What's remarkable is how many of the hits look like Harry on paper. Abysmal rookie year. 2nd year not that much better (maybe 300-400 receiving yards, which Harry is pacing towards).

As for the rest of the players on the list, many busted after just 1 year. Some plodded a long for a few years of 200-300 yards production. Others like Ike Hilliard had O-K careers. And the ones I listed above became studs. Anyway, that's all. Just thought it was pretty interesting.


Looking at the "high profile" names on the 8 or less list since 2015, we have;
Travis Fulgham
Allen Lazard
Preston Williams
Parris Campbell
Josh Doctson
John Ross
N'Keal Harry
Kevin White
Dede Westbrook
Keke Coutee
Jalen Guyton
Auden Tate

Oddly enough, Preston Williams has the most rookie receiving yardage of anyone on the 8 or less list from 1995-2019

[thebeast]

I can't argue at all whether Harry looks good or not. But I can make these points;

1) Harry has not been able to attend a normal off-season and pre-season, ever. Year 1 due to injury and Year 2 due to Covid.
2) He's only played in 12 NFL games so far.
3) He's only 22 years old.
4) He's been preparing to play with 3 different QB's within the span of a single year.
5) He has improved from year 1 to year 2.
6) He has shown some flashes of good play.
7) His resume on paper (draft pedigree, size and athleticism, college production) is superb.

We all know he hasn't been good. It's more to say here is a player that is losing value, but with his resume he's exactly the type of player to keep betting on. Whether you think he looks like he can't run routes or can't separate doesn't really matter. As long as it's not JJAWS level of bad then it doesn't really matter. How many people thought about Claypool the same exact way? Can't run routes, can't separate. Most did.

Harry reminds me a lot of Derrick Henry. Both excellent resumes coming into the league but they just didn't fire right away. People forget that for 44 NFL games, many if not the majority of dynasty players thought Derrick Henry was garbage. Harry is at 12 games played right now. Not every player is wired to come into the league and dominate right away. Every player is different and sometimes it just takes more time for some than for others. I really liked DeVante Parkers talent in college and it literally took 5 years for him to grow up and mature and translate it to the NFL.

Again, I'm fading Harry just like everyone else. I'm not writing this to convince anyone that he's good, I don't know if he's good either. I'm more responding to the people who are certain that Harry is a lost cause, that he's a bust, that he's droppable, that he's a garbage player, etc. It looks bleak but we have seen this path before. This is exactly the type of player you should be betting on when their value craters for the reasons I outlined above.

If I'm trying to buy, no i'm not paying a 1st and i'm probably not paying a 2nd straight up either. But given the comments here and other trades I've seen, maybe adding to a 3rd would get it done and I'd do that all day.

This is spot on. For a few years, everyone was calling Davante Adams a bust and now he's probably the best WR in the league. Not every player (coupled with situation) can come in a make an immediate impact.

Think you got the wrong Devante

Adams could run routes. Not sure Harry can even spell route at this point. Maybe he will turn into Devante Parker by year 5.

I agree that Parker is likely his ceiling, but if you go back and take a look at the conversation around here prior to Adam's year three it was pretty brutal. Pretty much every post had the word bust.

Here you go, just take a peek at this thread.. People forget now, Adams was gong for 2nd round rookie picks in his 2nd year viewtopic.php?f=5&t=124655&p=1083272&hi ... s#p1083272

[IR1]

Out of curiosity, how many people have simply dropped him? Our trade deadline has passed and I couldn’t move him for anything decent. Deciding him or Jacokobi as a possible drop.

[DJB]

People believed in Harry to begin with?

Yikes

[failblazer]

Out of curiosity, how many people have simply dropped him? Our trade deadline has passed and I couldn’t move him for anything decent. Deciding him or Jacokobi as a possible drop.

I managed move one share for a 2nd but the other share I have had no joy moving so I will hold because it is a deep bench so I can afford to see if he generates offseason buzz. I don't believe he will ever be anything at this point though so the hope is he gets enough hype that I can get something for him.

[Draftnik]

Not that Agholor or Bourne are anything special but these signings can't be a good thing for Harry, can they?

Think he gets traded? There was a report teams were calling for him.

If he gets traded, is he worth a flier or are we convinced he's a bust like OP said?