Does Anyone Still Believe: N'Keal Harry Edition

[MrUbuto]

Just to bring this back to actual discussion of the players' skills... for me, the big question on Harry was always separation. His highlight reels from college are full of monster contested catches (and some amazing plays after the ball is in his hands too) but I never really saw him being a route technician at the highest level - he was always playing using his physicality.

In no way am I suggesting this can't be learnt and that he cannot improve. However, the knock was separation - and all training camp, that's what we heard - that the Patriots DB's were completely locking him down. That's not unsurprising - that's probably the best secondary in the game right now.

But for me those questions are still there. I haven't seen anything to suggest he's improving. His best plays with Brady to finish the year were... yep, contested catches. Perhaps NE can scheme him open into space. Perhaps he can improve his footwork and route running. But a big part of Phaded planting his flag that N'Keal would bust was based on this.

I was never a Harry fan, I liked DK and AJB and even Hollywood more. I still don't believe, for those reasons. But if you still think there's something there, and you're a believer, then now is probably your window...

I think he can make it as a physical chain mover though. He was never going to be your +40 yard catch guy.

Hes going to be a jump ball specialist in the end zone and 1 or 2 yard catch guy who can get you 5 or 6 after the catch with his wiggle and strength and once awhile break one of those to the house.

[bjd5211]

Remember when we used to give WRs 3 years to develop, showed leniency to injuries and still valued the talent and draft capital from 9 months earlier. I guess Corey Davis ruined that line of thinking for some.

Historic RB classes the past couple of years (2015-2018) will do that. People are too accustomed to immediate production.

As for Harry, he had his ups and downs this year but at least I saw flashes of an explosive playmaker. Typically all you want to see as a rookie is some flashes. That said, I think his value is now about a late-1st. I'd buy for a 2nd, sell for a early/mid-1st and hold for a late-1st.

Expecting immediate production from a RB is different than expecting it from a WR though. I think Evans and OBJ kind of got things out of whack for people's expectations for rookie WRs, whereas before that the 3rd year breakout expectation was more the norm.

[Johnny Canuck]

Nope I don't believe in any WR that doesn't pop in the first 5 min of their NFL career. He's a complete waste of space and roster clogger already.

To be fair, usually you have to at least show something, some flashes at least, in your first season.

If you just scan the old rookie draft ADP, it's easy to see that about 25% of the WRs breakout (or show something) in their rookie season. Then out of the remaining 75%, more than half of those players become fantasy busts, a few of them become fantasy flexes, and very few become fantasy stars/starters. *That's just considering the WRs that were drafted in 3 round rookie draft.

Out of the remaining WRs that didn't show a glimmer of hope in their rookie season, there's always a chance that they have a 2nd/3rd/4th/ or even 5th yr breakouts (with the case of Parker/Perriman...if you can even consider Perriman a hit). But the chances of that happening decrease exponentially with every yr that goes by, and their value in dynasty communities follows the same path.

The only WRs that really popped after a very poor rookie season are DJ Chark, and Chris Godwin (and maybe Adams, but he showed a little something his rookie yr, so maybe he shouldn't be put into this category). But for every one of those, there's 10 guys that just couldn't cut it for one reason or another.

And let's get real here, if a guy turns into a flex option, that's great and all, but that's not changing your dynasty team into a contender. We need big hits to transform to contenders, so that's what really matters.

Considering that, if your holding N'Keal Harry, and you can still get decent enough value...I don't think it's the worst idea to cash out. I mean, the guy didn't even break 30 yards once (even in the two games he hit 7 targets). Not just that, but an overhaul of the Pats could happen...and who knows what that means for the fantasy assets there.

I just know I wish I accepted all those trade offers I had back then for my: Kevin White, Treadwell, Coleman, and John Ross shares, they just sat and rotted on my bench - would of been nice to get a 2nd for them...man I'm bad at drafting WRs lol.

[AussieMate]

Which is exactly where he should go if he was entering as a rookie next year

He isn't better than juedy or lamb and there are 3 or 4 RBS I'd take over him. So yes about 8 or 9 is where he'd probably go based just off his college tape.

I'd also take Higgins, Shenault and maybe Ruggs over Harry.
Note that I wasn't a big fan of harry

[djeternal2]

Nope I don't believe in any WR that doesn't pop in the first 5 min of their NFL career. He's a complete waste of space and roster clogger already.

To be fair, usually you have to at least show something, some flashes at least, in your first season.

If you just scan the old rookie draft ADP, it's easy to see that about 25% of the WRs breakout (or show something) in their rookie season. Then out of the remaining 75%, more than half of those players become fantasy busts, a few of them become fantasy flexes, and very few become fantasy stars/starters. *That's just considering the WRs that were drafted in 3 round rookie draft.

Out of the remaining WRs that didn't show a glimmer of hope in their rookie season, there's always a chance that they have a 2nd/3rd/4th/ or even 5th yr breakouts (with the case of Parker/Perriman...if you can even consider Perriman a hit). But the chances of that happening decrease exponentially with every yr that goes by, and their value in dynasty communities follows the same path.

The only WRs that really popped after a very poor rookie season are DJ Chark, and Chris Godwin (and maybe Adams, but he showed a little something his rookie yr, so maybe he shouldn't be put into this category). But for every one of those, there's 10 guys that just couldn't cut it for one reason or another.

And let's get real here, if a guy turns into a flex option, that's great and all, but that's not changing your dynasty team into a contender. We need big hits to transform to contenders, so that's what really matters.

Considering that, if your holding N'Keal Harry, and you can still get decent enough value...I don't think it's the worst idea to cash out. I mean, the guy didn't even break 30 yards once (even in the two games he hit 7 targets). Not just that, but an overhaul of the Pats could happen...and who knows what that means for the fantasy assets there.

I just know I wish I accepted all those trade offers I had back then for my: Kevin White, Treadwell, Coleman, and John Ross shares, they just sat and rotted on my bench - would of been nice to get a 2nd for them...man I'm bad at drafting WRs lol.

But he did show flashes. If you didn't see it then you either weren't looking for it or had much higher expectations for a guy that only got 25 targets his rookie year. I have a feeling the Treadwells, Colemans, Perrimans, Whites of the last few classes have put in some people's minds that if a WR doesn't tear off 800 yards his rookie season then he's a bust going into his second year.

[Sriracha]

Nope I don't believe in any WR that doesn't pop in the first 5 min of their NFL career. He's a complete waste of space and roster clogger already.

To be fair, usually you have to at least show something, some flashes at least, in your first season.

If you just scan the old rookie draft ADP, it's easy to see that about 25% of the WRs breakout (or show something) in their rookie season. Then out of the remaining 75%, more than half of those players become fantasy busts, a few of them become fantasy flexes, and very few become fantasy stars/starters. *That's just considering the WRs that were drafted in 3 round rookie draft.

Out of the remaining WRs that didn't show a glimmer of hope in their rookie season, there's always a chance that they have a 2nd/3rd/4th/ or even 5th yr breakouts (with the case of Parker/Perriman...if you can even consider Perriman a hit). But the chances of that happening decrease exponentially with every yr that goes by, and their value in dynasty communities follows the same path.

The only WRs that really popped after a very poor rookie season are DJ Chark, and Chris Godwin (and maybe Adams, but he showed a little something his rookie yr, so maybe he shouldn't be put into this category). But for every one of those, there's 10 guys that just couldn't cut it for one reason or another.

And let's get real here, if a guy turns into a flex option, that's great and all, but that's not changing your dynasty team into a contender. We need big hits to transform to contenders, so that's what really matters.

Considering that, if your holding N'Keal Harry, and you can still get decent enough value...I don't think it's the worst idea to cash out. I mean, the guy didn't even break 30 yards once (even in the two games he hit 7 targets). Not just that, but an overhaul of the Pats could happen...and who knows what that means for the fantasy assets there.

I just know I wish I accepted all those trade offers I had back then for my: Kevin White, Treadwell, Coleman, and John Ross shares, they just sat and rotted on my bench - would of been nice to get a 2nd for them...man I'm bad at drafting WRs lol.

But he did show flashes. If you didn't see it then you either weren't looking for it or had much higher expectations for a guy that only got 25 targets his rookie year. I have a feeling the Treadwells, Colemans, Perrimans, Whites of the last few classes have put in some people's minds that if a WR doesn't tear off 800 yards his rookie season then he's a bust going into his second year.

x2

I wasnt fortunate enough to land Harry anywhere, but Im still a big believer.

Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug, and for those that doubted Harry from the get go, this quagmire of a rookie season is all they needed to jump on the chance to declare themselves right.

Started the season on IR, Patriots have a complicated playbook, Brady notoriously favors WRs he trusts (trust that Harry couldnt gain because of his injury).

Perhaps the Harry doubters were right and will be proved right at a later date, but nothing that happened this season should change your view of him, one way or the other

[mild]

I think he can make it as a physical chain mover though. He was never going to be your +40 yard catch guy.

Hes going to be a jump ball specialist in the end zone and 1 or 2 yard catch guy who can get you 5 or 6 after the catch with his wiggle and strength and once awhile break one of those to the house.

So then I'll challenge that - Brady has never trended towards throwing at guys that are covered. He's always more interested in throwing to the open man, which the Patriots system is so good at creating.

If Brady is back again this year - which we agree is probably the most likely outcome in Boston - then I think expectations should be pretty tempered for N'Keal in year 2.

They spread the ball around. Brady is finally declining, and his arm talent is not the same. There's no obvious heir apparent as of this stage. And we've seen nothing from N'Keal so far - though we agree that's not all his fault - to suggest he's going to be an AJ Brown or a DK Metcalf level talent. We can also factor in the Patriots laughably-bad bust rate on drafted WR's too if we want.

I don't know, that all seems pretty grim for a WR who appears to have the deck stacked against him for the next 12 months. Happy to hear the case as to why I'm wrong, but I really don't think there's any cause for optimism in the short term going forward... and after that? Still a big ol' question mark.

[MrUbuto]

But that's just exactly it. They will put him in situations that lead to separation, quick slants, throws behind the line even lining up as a block then running to the flat. That's exactly what the patriots do. Edelman is one of the all time reception leaders that guy isn't creating separation down deep against top corners.

[mild]

But that's just exactly it. They will put him in situations that lead to separation, quick slants, throws behind the line even lining up as a block then running to the flat. That's exactly what the patriots do. Edelman is one of the all time reception leaders that guy isn't creating separation down deep against top corners.

We can go into how Edelman wins in space and why, and how that's not even close to a good comparison for their comparative roles in the offense - but perhaps we can both look at the same half-full glass and see different things, too.

Edelman strictly plays the slot. Harry will play almost exclusively outside, and will see the best corner every week if he even remotely flashes talent worth guarding. I'm telling you - anyone who's banging the drum for N'Keal right now needs to convince me he can seperate. I'll wait.

[Johnny Canuck]

But he did show flashes. If you didn't see it then you either weren't looking for it or had much higher expectations for a guy that only got 25 targets his rookie year. I have a feeling the Treadwells, Colemans, Perrimans, Whites of the last few classes have put in some people's minds that if a WR doesn't tear off 800 yards his rookie season then he's a bust going into his second year.

Yes, I did have high expectations - that were not met. Also, I don't think he flashed as much as ppl wish he did - hell, I wish he did better too, but he didn't. The guy didn't have to put up 800 yards, but man, he put up 105 yards (paced for 240 - that's bad). He was okay with what he was given, and the tape shows that - he was simply good, nothing more, nothing less. I get that Brady's arm has diminished, but let's not pretend Harry dominated and the only thing holding him back was targets.

No one in New England was screaming from the roof tops to get Harry more targets.

Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug, and for those that doubted Harry from the get go, this quagmire of a rookie season is all they needed to jump on the chance to declare themselves right.

Started the season on IR, Patriots have a complicated playbook, Brady notoriously favors WRs he trusts (trust that Harry couldnt gain because of his injury).

Perhaps the Harry doubters were right and will be proved right at a later date, but nothing that happened this season should change your view of him, one way or the other

The same could be said for Anchoring Bias.

He was good in college, drafted highly in the NFL, and ppl spent an early pick on him in rookie drafts - therefore he's good and nothing that happens will shake the ideology...sound familiar...because that's exactly why ppl are still stuck on Corey Davis.

I'm not saying he won't be good, he could be, but we have another set of information to consider from his rookie year, and simply ignoring that will not provide more accurate prognostication.

I sincerely hope he puts it together because I liked him as a player, saw some Dez in his draft profile. If he gets a new QB, and Edelman follows Brady to some other team. I'll be all in - but until that happens, expectations should be tempered.

[CGW]

I think he will have a fine career, even if it doesn't immediately translate to fantasy stardom. Just sold him and Slayton as a package for Golladay and have no regerts.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Here's his "highlight" video, which, there aren't too many highlights obviously but just a lot of his catches and runs. What stands out to me is he looks like a man among boys, which is important. I thought his upside comp was Dez coming in and I think he can still be that once he "gets it."

[FantasyFreak]

Here's his "highlight" video, which, there aren't too many highlights obviously but just a lot of his catches and runs. What stands out to me is he looks like a man among boys, which is important. I thought his upside comp was Dez coming in and I think he can still be that once he "gets it."

I thought he played a lot like Dez, but he wasn't the prospect Dez was. I felt like a "poor man's Dez" was more of his ceiling. I don't think prime Dez is his upside, this guy just isn't the same caliber of player.

[ascherb]

I love these threads with everyone now saying “I personally didn’t have Harry 1.01 last year... I liked AJB, Deebo and Sanders.”

Lol!

I distinctly remember that many many people had Harry 1.01.

I did.

I guess I’m less excited now, but he’s a hold because no one is giving up anything for him.

[Jigga94]

I love these threads with everyone now saying “I personally didn’t have Harry 1.01 last year... I liked AJB, Deebo and Sanders.”

Lol!

I distinctly remember that many many people had Harry 1.01.

I did.

I guess I’m less excited now, but he’s a hold because no one is giving up anything for him.

He was definitely my 1st ranked WR also