Does Anyone Still Believe: N'Keal Harry Edition

[Sriracha]

Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug, and for those that doubted Harry from the get go, this quagmire of a rookie season is all they needed to jump on the chance to declare themselves right.

Started the season on IR, Patriots have a complicated playbook, Brady notoriously favors WRs he trusts (trust that Harry couldnt gain because of his injury).

Perhaps the Harry doubters were right and will be proved right at a later date, but nothing that happened this season should change your view of him, one way or the other

The same could be said for Anchoring Bias.

He was good in college, drafted highly in the NFL, and ppl spent an early pick on him in rookie drafts - therefore he's good and nothing that happens will shake the ideology...sound familiar...because that's exactly why ppl are still stuck on Corey Davis.

The big difference here is that Corey Davis didn't do anything at the combine because he was injured. He was a black box athlete that people assumed would not be limited by athleticism based on his film (Primarily vs MAC defenders making it even harder to gauge). N'keal by contrast tested very well at the combine, as a 98th percentile size adjusted athlete.

[Johnny Canuck]

Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug, and for those that doubted Harry from the get go, this quagmire of a rookie season is all they needed to jump on the chance to declare themselves right.

Started the season on IR, Patriots have a complicated playbook, Brady notoriously favors WRs he trusts (trust that Harry couldnt gain because of his injury).

Perhaps the Harry doubters were right and will be proved right at a later date, but nothing that happened this season should change your view of him, one way or the other

The same could be said for Anchoring Bias.

He was good in college, drafted highly in the NFL, and ppl spent an early pick on him in rookie drafts - therefore he's good and nothing that happens will shake the ideology...sound familiar...because that's exactly why ppl are still stuck on Corey Davis.

The big difference here is that Corey Davis didn't do anything at the combine because he was injured. He was a black box athlete that people assumed would not be limited by athleticism based on his film (Primarily vs MAC defenders making it even harder to gauge). N'keal by contrast tested very well at the combine, as a 98th percentile size adjusted athlete.

I wasn’t comparing Davis V Harry, I was using Davis as an example of Anchoring Bias.

[murphysxm]

I thought he was over-hhyped and valued last year, he has perfomed about as I expected. Just never saw what others did in him

[alewilliam789]

Rewind back 1 year and you’ll see the same conversations about Courtland Sutton.

Not saying this is completely wrong, but Sutton had like 600 yds and what 4-5 TDS his rookie year. Even with Harry’s stats extrapolated he maybe would have had 250 yards and 4 TDS. I mean being honest looking back at his highlights it doesn’t look terrible if that means anything

[alewilliam789]

Well either way if he’s valued as a couple of mid 2nd rounders I’m going to buy and test my chances with his profile . If he busts, I need to consolidate some picks in 2020.

I mean his profile is so good that 80% of players with his profile generally hit

[ThunderTung]

Rewind back 1 year and you’ll see the same conversations about Courtland Sutton.

Not saying this is completely wrong, but Sutton had like 600 yds and what 4-5 TDS his rookie year. Even with Harry’s stats extrapolated he maybe would have had 250 yards and 4 TDS. I mean being honest looking back at his highlights it doesn’t look terrible if that means anything

you cant take his stats from those games, extrapolate and get any sort of reasonable answer. he's a rookie, its safe to assume he would have improved as the year went on, and could have definitely matched suttons numbers from his rookie year

[alewilliam789]

Rewind back 1 year and you’ll see the same conversations about Courtland Sutton.

Not saying this is completely wrong, but Sutton had like 600 yds and what 4-5 TDS his rookie year. Even with Harry’s stats extrapolated he maybe would have had 250 yards and 4 TDS. I mean being honest looking back at his highlights it doesn’t look terrible if that means anything

you cant take his stats from those games, extrapolate and get any sort of reasonable answer. he's a rookie, its safe to assume he would have improved as the year went on, and could have definitely matched suttons numbers from his rookie year

While I was doing this I was thinking the same thing, but it’s the rate at which he was producing. I mean literally it would take more extrapolating to assume he would’ve outproduced his numbers than not . (Even though I also kind of agree with you).
I would say probably not on the Sutton’s numbers though. He wasn’t a downfield threat at any point as a Patriot

[ThunderTung]

Not saying this is completely wrong, but Sutton had like 600 yds and what 4-5 TDS his rookie year. Even with Harry’s stats extrapolated he maybe would have had 250 yards and 4 TDS. I mean being honest looking back at his highlights it doesn’t look terrible if that means anything

you cant take his stats from those games, extrapolate and get any sort of reasonable answer. he's a rookie, its safe to assume he would have improved as the year went on, and could have definitely matched suttons numbers from his rookie year

While I was doing this I was thinking the same thing, but it’s the rate at which he was producing. I mean literally it would take more extrapolating to assume he would’ve outproduced his numbers than not . (Even though I also kind of agree with you).
I would say probably not on the Sutton’s numbers though. He wasn’t a downfield threat at any point as a Patriot

nor will he ever be, besides the fact its not his skillset, patriots rarely have downfield threats if you dont include moss and cooks for a year. Its not their scheme.

although im a believer in his game from a real football stand point, i know his ceiling is a WR2/3 for fantasy while Brady is around. Patriots offense outside of Gronk has never been super fantasy friendly.

[Orenthal Shames]

The Late Round Podcast touched on this subject. JJ throws a ton of numbers about, but essentially states unproductive, highly drafted WRs have a better chance of eventually having a top 20 season than an equally unproductive RB like Henderson.

That being said, he said by in large the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor by selling these rookies while they still hold value, especially if they weren't injured like Harry (JJAW, Damien Harris, Isabella).

[Dynasty DeLorean]

The thought popped into my head today that Harry coming out of college was a lot like DJ Moore. Both had exceptional resumes on paper, both were said to have "problems with separation and route running" that I personally thought were overblown. DJ Moore obviously had a better rookie campaign but I just thought it was an interesting observation?

[Rasorin]

The thought popped into my head today that Harry coming out of college was a lot like DJ Moore. Both had exceptional resumes on paper, both were said to have "problems with separation and route running" that I personally thought were overblown. DJ Moore obviously had a better rookie campaign but I just thought it was an interesting observation?

Sorry, I don't remember that DJ Moore having issues with separation or route running coming out of college. If memory serves me right those skills were attributed to his player strengths, not weaknesses.

[stoneghost28]

Last rookie draft Harry was pretty much considered the best WR of the draft. After a bad rookie season he seems to be valued by a lot of owners as worth a 2nd round pick. Poking around I don't find many post that say anything positive about him anymore. Does anyone still believe in him? Why?

I wish. I tried to pry him off someone. Of course I should've known better as he pretty much auto-rejects every single one of my offers (and I'm not one to send crap offers, I build them around the analyzer on this site more or less, trying to make it as close to market value as possible), but I did send an offer, and for once he countered, but he was asking for my 1.07, and that was a non-starter for me. Last year he was my 1.01 (followed by Miles Sanders and then AJ Brown at 1.02 and 1.03), I ended up with 4 shares, traded for a fifth (while getting 5 shares of Miles Sanders and 8 of AJ Brown) and then the debacle happened. Supposedly a weak rookie camp, and training camp, signs of life in his first preseason game followed by injury that wiped out about half his season followed by an uneven at best and outright awful 2nd half.

I still believe in him. He had a sample size at ASU of 37 games. His Patriots career is eight games old. He also played for a team whose offense is falling apart with a veteran QB that won't tolerate rookie mistakes/learning curve. As such while I hoped for a lot better, I suspect he'll be fine. He isn't worth what he was, so I'm bargain shopping. If I can snap him up for a 2nd, I'd do that immediately, if I could get him for a very late 1st, and a give back pick (like 1.12 for Harry and an early 3rd for instance) I'd probably do that as well. He may bomb out. The early returns are god awful and when you have a rookie year as bad as his, injury riddled or not, the history is not good. However, there's a reason he was the #1 or #2 ranked WR for nearly everyone last year, and an injury riddled season w/a struggling offense is not enough for me to quit him. I need some signs of life in '20, and as long as I do I won't sell low, if I don't see any, I'll need to make some hard decisions about at what price I'm willing to sell going into '21.

For now, I'm a believer, I don't believe in jumping ship on a WR until year 3, unless I get real, hefty, tangible evidence that a player is a megabust. For now I don't see that. The performance was, but I don't see the player as best represented in that, I think the much larger sample size with ASU is more illustrative.

[stoneghost28]

Nope I don't believe in any WR that doesn't pop in the first 5 min of their NFL career. He's a complete waste of space and roster clogger already.

How many WRs have started their careers as poorly as Harry and gone on to meeting their fantasy draft stock? It's pretty rare. There are still reasons to be optimistic, but it's going to be hard to find anyone willing to pay much for that.

Like others have said, I think the most I'd offer is a mid or late second and much of that is because this class is expected to be very good fantasy football wise.

If he hadn't missed half the season due to injury, I'd agree w/you, having missed half the season with a HOF bound QB who doesn't suffer rookie mistakes well makes me far more inclined to bet on him.

If he was this awful w/a healthy offseason in '19 and a healthy 16 game season, I'd be as alarmed as you. He wasn't. He was hurt for a huge chunk of that July-October window, almost all of it. For me that gives him a partial mulligan, maybe not a full one, but certainly a 50-75% mulligan. He's exactly the kind of asset I try to bargain shop for after their rookie year.

[stoneghost28]

How many WRs have started their careers as poorly as Harry and gone on to meeting their fantasy draft stock? It's pretty rare. There are still reasons to be optimistic, but it's going to be hard to find anyone willing to pay much for that.

Like others have said, I think the most I'd offer is a mid or late second and much of that is because this class is expected to be very good fantasy football wise.

Wtf.. how can we even really call his season bad?

He missed 10 weeks to start, got thrown in the 7 games and only had 25 targets. There was even that beautiful catch and run for a +25 years score that was called back one of those games.

New Englands offense in general was a mess, no one got in to any rhythm. His value should be exactly where it was this time last year which based on this stud class is probably pick 10 or so

I agree, and I tried to buy low based on the replies to this post.

From what I can gather, the opinion that Harry is only worth a 2nd is representative of buyers or those with no interest or ownership.
As others have mentioned, owners (including my [rejected] trade partner ) are holding unless they get close to equal value of what they paid for him (which last year was an early 1st)

Yep. I get the sense that it's:

To Buy: Early to late 2nd.

To Sell: Mid to mid/late 1st

And nobody is buying at that price, and nobody is selling at the other.

To me, the sweet spot w/be the 1/2 turn. If my top 4 RB's are off the board, and my top 7 or 8 WR's, then I'd prefer Harry to what's available. My problem with my would be trade partner is he was rejecting my offers, and countering for my 1.07, and I'm just not interested in giving up a shot at guys like Cam Akers, Jalen Reagor, Tee Higgins for a guy w/depressed market value at the scale of Harry. You've got to give someone a discount, if you're trying to unload Harry right now. You aren't getting 2019 valuation and you shouldn't be. The early returns are bad. There's mitigating factors for it, but it's also a closed book. That disappointing rookie season happened. He is not worth a top 8 pick in 2020, period. I wouldn't pay a top 10 pick this year. But a turn pick should be considered, because at that point, the WR's in this class have more spots than Harry did last year (for me, guys like Edwards, Shenault, Hamler, Johnson, Aiyuk etc I'd include Ruggs there as I have zero interest in Ruggs, but I know tons of people would disagree and I understand why they would), and that's when I seriously begin to consider pulling the trigger.

[dynasty12]

I feel like Pats running plays specifically geared to get him the ball in the redzone after he came back healthy is a good sign. The obvious counter is he didn't make most of those plays. But, it is something.