Does anyone still belive in N'Keal Harry

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
User avatar
Vendetta
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1370
Joined: Sun Apr 15, 2012 11:36 am
Location: Vancouver, BC

Re: N'Keal Harry will bust

Postby Vendetta » Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:11 pm

Phaded wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:49 am
I think that Allen Robinson is an overly optimistic comparison; I understand that people want to be optimistic and assume the best but as we all know it often does not work out that way.

Something that really caught my attention was when some NFL scouts comped him to both Laquon Treadwell & Devin Funchess. This caught my eye as I initially thought "no way, he is a much better athlete than these guys". He is a much better athlete, on paper and at the combine. However, now that I have gone and watched some N'Keal Harry tape; I can see how those scouts came up with that comparison. That is a massive red flag. I even went and watched some Laquon Treadwell college tape to compare, the similarities are eerie.

This is also a guy in the pre-draft process; this community is anointing as the 1.01 or a contender for it; much like Laquon Treadwell. If anyone has been here for a while, I was basically arguing to death with people to NOT draft Laquon Treadwell because he would bust. I eventually gave up because people were convinced Treadwell was great and that the Vikings were a great landing spots.

N'Keal Harry plays slower than he tests. When I watch his tape, I do not see a guy who tested the way he did at the combine. He looks very raw, lacks precision and quite frankly is not very fluid. He looks kind of "clunky". Also for me, the biggest potential red flag is the fact that he cannot separate.

Is he great at contested catches at the college level? Sure. However, I think we all know the quality of college defensive coverage in comparison to the NFL. In the NFL, those balls are going to get batted down, picked and even scarier, if he cannot get open in college how is he going to get open in the NFL?

Now; if this was the NFL from 10-15 years ago, I would feel more comfortable with Harry as a prospect. However, the NFL has changed dramatically. There has been a trend toward the guys who can get open and provide a better window for their quarterbacks to throw to. Harry is the type of receiver that is a dying breed in the NFL today.

Now this is not to say that Harry cannot develop; any player can.
Once again, this community likes him for first overall - the NFL community has him around the 6th/7th WR and a late day 2 pick (3rd round).

Harry could get some value IF he lands with a quarterback who is great with tight windows and pinpoint accuracy; but most quarterbacks in the NFL today are not like that.

I'm basically planting my flag at this point.

I don't see a big ceiling here and I also see a terrifyingly low floor.

This also saddens me because he is from Toronto (I am Canadian) and I would love to see him succeed.
I'm not in a position to take Harry in any of my leagues so I haven't spent a great deal of time scouting him but this post basically confirms my initial fears regarding him but is stated much more eloquently than I'd be able to.

User avatar
Vcize
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3278
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 4:30 pm

Re: N'Keal Harry will bust

Postby Vcize » Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:53 pm

Phaded wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:49 am
I think that Allen Robinson is an overly optimistic comparison; I understand that people want to be optimistic and assume the best but as we all know it often does not work out that way.

Something that really caught my attention was when some NFL scouts comped him to both Laquon Treadwell & Devin Funchess. This caught my eye as I initially thought "no way, he is a much better athlete than these guys". He is a much better athlete, on paper and at the combine. However, now that I have gone and watched some N'Keal Harry tape; I can see how those scouts came up with that comparison. That is a massive red flag. I even went and watched some Laquon Treadwell college tape to compare, the similarities are eerie.

This is also a guy in the pre-draft process; this community is anointing as the 1.01 or a contender for it; much like Laquon Treadwell. If anyone has been here for a while, I was basically arguing to death with people to NOT draft Laquon Treadwell because he would bust. I eventually gave up because people were convinced Treadwell was great and that the Vikings were a great landing spots.

N'Keal Harry plays slower than he tests. When I watch his tape, I do not see a guy who tested the way he did at the combine. He looks very raw, lacks precision and quite frankly is not very fluid. He looks kind of "clunky". Also for me, the biggest potential red flag is the fact that he cannot separate.

Is he great at contested catches at the college level? Sure. However, I think we all know the quality of college defensive coverage in comparison to the NFL. In the NFL, those balls are going to get batted down, picked and even scarier, if he cannot get open in college how is he going to get open in the NFL?

Now; if this was the NFL from 10-15 years ago, I would feel more comfortable with Harry as a prospect. However, the NFL has changed dramatically. There has been a trend toward the guys who can get open and provide a better window for their quarterbacks to throw to. Harry is the type of receiver that is a dying breed in the NFL today.

Now this is not to say that Harry cannot develop; any player can.
Once again, this community likes him for first overall - the NFL community has him around the 6th/7th WR and a late day 2 pick (3rd round).

Harry could get some value IF he lands with a quarterback who is great with tight windows and pinpoint accuracy; but most quarterbacks in the NFL today are not like that.

I'm basically planting my flag at this point.

I don't see a big ceiling here and I also see a terrifyingly low floor.

This also saddens me because he is from Toronto (I am Canadian) and I would love to see him succeed.
Tape is so subjective though. When I watch plays like this one, it doesn't look "clunky" to me.
12 Team FFPC TE Premium
QB: Wentz, Cam, Burrow
RB: Barkley, Mixon, A Jones, Hunt
WR: Hopkins, Hill, Lockett, Preston, J Jefferson
TE: Cook, Howard, Goedert

Online
FantasyFreak
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 16834
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:03 am

Re: N'Keal Harry will bust

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:08 pm

Harry has a very safe profile. It's unlikely he completely busts.

User avatar
Jason3123
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3008
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2013 9:15 pm

Re: N'Keal Harry will bust

Postby Jason3123 » Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:52 pm

Young, athletic, productive, size, the man has it all.

Another interesting thing, unlike fellow classmate DK, Harry lined up all over the field, ran all kinds of routes. He is a weapon. If the tape experts think he’s not good at separation or route running well he put up pretty amazing numbers for not being any good then, so he’ll be even more incredible once he actually figures it out.

KingsKing
Starter
Starter
Posts: 661
Joined: Sun Oct 28, 2012 5:47 pm

Re: N'Keal Harry will bust

Postby KingsKing » Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:16 pm

Vcize wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:53 pm
Phaded wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:49 am
I think that Allen Robinson is an overly optimistic comparison; I understand that people want to be optimistic and assume the best but as we all know it often does not work out that way.

Something that really caught my attention was when some NFL scouts comped him to both Laquon Treadwell & Devin Funchess. This caught my eye as I initially thought "no way, he is a much better athlete than these guys". He is a much better athlete, on paper and at the combine. However, now that I have gone and watched some N'Keal Harry tape; I can see how those scouts came up with that comparison. That is a massive red flag. I even went and watched some Laquon Treadwell college tape to compare, the similarities are eerie.

This is also a guy in the pre-draft process; this community is anointing as the 1.01 or a contender for it; much like Laquon Treadwell. If anyone has been here for a while, I was basically arguing to death with people to NOT draft Laquon Treadwell because he would bust. I eventually gave up because people were convinced Treadwell was great and that the Vikings were a great landing spots.

N'Keal Harry plays slower than he tests. When I watch his tape, I do not see a guy who tested the way he did at the combine. He looks very raw, lacks precision and quite frankly is not very fluid. He looks kind of "clunky". Also for me, the biggest potential red flag is the fact that he cannot separate.

Is he great at contested catches at the college level? Sure. However, I think we all know the quality of college defensive coverage in comparison to the NFL. In the NFL, those balls are going to get batted down, picked and even scarier, if he cannot get open in college how is he going to get open in the NFL?

Now; if this was the NFL from 10-15 years ago, I would feel more comfortable with Harry as a prospect. However, the NFL has changed dramatically. There has been a trend toward the guys who can get open and provide a better window for their quarterbacks to throw to. Harry is the type of receiver that is a dying breed in the NFL today.

Now this is not to say that Harry cannot develop; any player can.
Once again, this community likes him for first overall - the NFL community has him around the 6th/7th WR and a late day 2 pick (3rd round).

Harry could get some value IF he lands with a quarterback who is great with tight windows and pinpoint accuracy; but most quarterbacks in the NFL today are not like that.

I'm basically planting my flag at this point.

I don't see a big ceiling here and I also see a terrifyingly low floor.

This also saddens me because he is from Toronto (I am Canadian) and I would love to see him succeed.
Tape is so subjective though. When I watch plays like this one, it doesn't look "clunky" to me.
Agreed 100%, its a lazy comparison. Treadwell or Funchess could never do this, looks plenty fast in a real game situation to me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFzefPD ... gs=pl%2Cwn

Factory of Sadness
Starter
Starter
Posts: 659
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2014 6:34 am

Re: N'Keal Harry will bust

Postby Factory of Sadness » Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:11 am

Harry is a tricky one. There are so many moments with the ball where you see fluid movement and quick twitch change of direction. Those elements don't seem to show up in his route running though. If he was as twitchy and agile in his routes as he is once he gets the ball on a screen, we'd have our no doubt 1.01. The production is tough to ignore. The early break-out is tough to ignore. I'm leaning towards the idea that the athleticism which was measured at the Combine and shows up repeatedly on tape when he has the ball, will start to emerge in his route running. Watch him return kicks or blaze away from DBs once he has the ball in his hands and it's tough to imagine he won't be able to separate on deeper routes. Everyone is a gamble in the draft- especially at WR. I'm going to happily take Harry early.

User avatar
wickerkat1212
Starter
Starter
Posts: 618
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:23 am
Contact:

Re: N'Keal Harry will bust

Postby wickerkat1212 » Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:37 am

This is why I traded away my 1.01/1.02 for Zeke. Too much risk at the top with Harry, Metcalf, Jacobs, etc. I'm sure somebody will emerge, but hell, it could be somebody 1.05 or lower. I'll take the proven player.
D3:
QB—Lamar, Allen, Big Ben, Tyrod
RB—EE, Henry, Cohen, Mostert, Evans (R), Coleman, Pollard
WR—MThomas, Diggs, Lamb (R), Lazard, Hardman, Renfrow, Beasley, Claypool
TE—Doyle, Jonnu, Thomas
PK—Zuerlein
DEF—Ravens

D4:
QB—Watson, Stafford, Tyrod
RB—Conner, David & Duke Johnson, Cohen, Howard, Breida, DWilliams, Edmonds
WR—Hill, Allen, Golladay, Jeudy (R), Jeffery, Jefferson (R), Amendola, Miller, Watson, Dorsett
TE—IThomas, LThomas, DArnold, Kmet, Trautman
PK—Prater
DEF—Bears

Patsfan86
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1094
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:28 am

Re: N'Keal Harry will bust

Postby Patsfan86 » Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:56 am

wickerkat1212 wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:37 am
This is why I traded away my 1.01/1.02 for Zeke. Too much risk at the top with Harry, Metcalf, Jacobs, etc. I'm sure somebody will emerge, but hell, it could be somebody 1.05 or lower. I'll take the proven player.
Off topic but how did you get Zeke for that? Thats a steal.

User avatar
MrUbuto
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3512
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 10:59 pm
Location: Vancouver, B.C.

Re: N'Keal Harry will bust

Postby MrUbuto » Sat Apr 20, 2019 3:24 pm

Weknownothing86 wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:56 am
wickerkat1212 wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:37 am
This is why I traded away my 1.01/1.02 for Zeke. Too much risk at the top with Harry, Metcalf, Jacobs, etc. I'm sure somebody will emerge, but hell, it could be somebody 1.05 or lower. I'll take the proven player.
Off topic but how did you get Zeke for that? Thats a steal.
Yea wtf :eh:
QB - DWatson(HOU)Minshew(JAX)Winston(TB)
RB -NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)JTaylor(IND)Gurley(ATL)
WR -ACooper(DAL)CGodwin(TB)OBJ(CLE)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Crosby(GB)
Def - ARI HOU
[rookie] NHarry(NE)Haskins(WAS)
DSwift(DET)Ruggs(NV)Jefferson(MIN)

2 1sts - 2021's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

stoneghost28
Captain
Captain
Posts: 889
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:17 pm

Re: N'Keal Harry will bust

Postby stoneghost28 » Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:05 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 2:04 pm
Jason3123 wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 9:47 am
The problem with film as usual is it’s incredibly subjective. Everyone sees different things. What isn’t subjective is Harry’s dominant college production, elite breakout age, and plus athleticism to go along with it. Something Treadwell didn’t have. Funchess actually did have some strong metrics as well but also ran a 4.7 40 which is atrocious. Harry’s athleticism also shows on the field, go watch his punt return for a TD. Funchess and Treadwell could never do that.

Harry could easily bust as most rookies do, but he is not Treadwell and Funchess. He is much more aligned with ARob, Dez, Juju types.
I think the problem with film is that everyone doesn't understand what they're actually watching and that people just don't watch it. Dominator and Breakout age are notable metrics, but they're not things that can be directly controlled by a WR. It's squarely dependent on what your QB does or the offense the coaching staff builds. Some players build misleading market shares because they're in low volume offenses that target them a lot. Some players don't build good ones because they're in high volume offenses that spread the ball a lot.

As is the case with everything, context is crucial in understanding a prospect.
You know there's like three WR's in the top 40-45 in ADP who have a sub 50th percentile breakout age, and if you look at the bulk of the top 25 or so, nearly all of them have breakout ages in the 70th to 90th+ percentile? Some metrics just seem to have an uncanny connection to future success. Seems like breakout age tied to dominator/market share are damn helpful in finding markers associated w/success. Honestly I trust these kinds of things about 1000x more than tape. That being said, sometimes tape nails a guy, and the combine really misses on a guy (See Kareem Hunt). Wish I could figure out a happy middle ground, but I know which way I prefer to err.

User avatar
wickerkat1212
Starter
Starter
Posts: 618
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:23 am
Contact:

Re: N'Keal Harry will bust

Postby wickerkat1212 » Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:23 am

Weknownothing86 wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:56 am
wickerkat1212 wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:37 am
This is why I traded away my 1.01/1.02 for Zeke. Too much risk at the top with Harry, Metcalf, Jacobs, etc. I'm sure somebody will emerge, but hell, it could be somebody 1.05 or lower. I'll take the proven player.
Off topic but how did you get Zeke for that? Thats a steal.
Was a little more than those picks. Also Trubisky for Mariota, and Hurst for Jonnu. I know Mariota isn't much, but from what I've seen of Trubisky, I don't see him being anything elite, at this point. Hurst is still up in the air, but he's still a bit of flier, low cost IMO. But yeah, I'll pay that. I still have Big Ben and Allen, as well as Burton, so my depth is hurting a bit, but it's hard to get a top five RB. My league thought I got robbed. Guess they like this draft more than I do.
D3:
QB—Lamar, Allen, Big Ben, Tyrod
RB—EE, Henry, Cohen, Mostert, Evans (R), Coleman, Pollard
WR—MThomas, Diggs, Lamb (R), Lazard, Hardman, Renfrow, Beasley, Claypool
TE—Doyle, Jonnu, Thomas
PK—Zuerlein
DEF—Ravens

D4:
QB—Watson, Stafford, Tyrod
RB—Conner, David & Duke Johnson, Cohen, Howard, Breida, DWilliams, Edmonds
WR—Hill, Allen, Golladay, Jeudy (R), Jeffery, Jefferson (R), Amendola, Miller, Watson, Dorsett
TE—IThomas, LThomas, DArnold, Kmet, Trautman
PK—Prater
DEF—Bears

ehasz15
Combine Attendee
Combine Attendee
Posts: 31
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:45 pm

Re: N'Keal Harry will bust

Postby ehasz15 » Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:45 am

Go watch Nkeal Harrys top 10 plays on youtube
some of those plays Treadwell couldn't dream of making....Hes much more athletic and His change of Direction is on point....Treadwell Comp is lazy and awful....not saying Harry is going to be a WR1 in the NFL but he will be a pretty good 2, in a few years
I could be a little biased because i live in AZ and go to every ASU game but.....
i wasn't on the Jalen Strong Hype train i wanted him to succeed, but i knew he wasn't athletic enough and his route running was poor unlike Harry

Ice
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2636
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 6:17 pm

Re: N'Keal Harry will bust

Postby Ice » Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:16 am

ehasz15 wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:45 am
Go watch Nkeal Harrys top 10 plays on youtube
some of those plays Treadwell couldn't dream of making....Hes much more athletic and His change of Direction is on point....Treadwell Comp is lazy and awful....not saying Harry is going to be a WR1 in the NFL but he will be a pretty good 2, in a few years
I could be a little biased because i live in AZ and go to every ASU game but.....
i wasn't on the Jalen Strong Hype train i wanted him to succeed, but i knew he wasn't athletic enough and his route running was poor unlike Harry
The problem is in round 1 a WR2 projection isn't a good enough expectation. I had the same concerns with Allen Robinson when he came out. Quite a bit to like but extremely tight coverage in college is a concern. Harry will be a decent pro IMO but not on my teams. Speed in pads is highly suspect at this point. He could develop but today he struggles against press coverage.

He does make really good contested catches and is a beast after contact.
The clock is running and there are no timeouts

ebsteelers
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 496
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2014 8:16 am

Re: N'Keal Harry will bust

Postby ebsteelers » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:54 am

looking forward to him going first pick of round 2 to the cardinals... and him and kirk just eating for the next decade once larry legend retires

User avatar
Blueboy
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1745
Joined: Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:27 pm

Re: N'Keal Harry will bust

Postby Blueboy » Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:22 pm

I was a bit too optimistic in my first round of tape review for Harry, this thread inspired me to take pause in my second go around. So thanks Phaded.

It's tough to confidently rank him pre-Draft. As others have said, landing spot will be especially key for Harry... but if he goes to a coaching staff I trust, regardless of QB situation, he'll be the 1.01 on my board.

12-team SF, PPR, IDP
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Wilson, Brees, Minshew, Winston, Rosen
RB: J. Taylor, CEH, Ingram, Dillon, Penny, Henderson
WR: Metcalf, Woods, AJG, Kirk, Hardman, Isabella, Campbell, Hamler, JJAW
TE: Andrews, Njoku, Asiasi, Moreau, Trautman

DL: J. Bosa, JJ Watt, J. Allen, Ferrell, Epinesa, Houston
LB: T. Edmunds, Kendricks, Mosley, T. Lewis, A. Williamson
DB: J. Adams, K. Neal, Amos, McDougald, Thornhill


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: philosophy and 8 guests