Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

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davieglove34
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Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

Postby davieglove34 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:44 pm

I'm trying to gauge where the 2020 rookies could be drafted and get a better understanding of their values in context, so I decided to do a little exercise that would show where the new rooks could fall in the grand scheme of fantasy. To clarify, the intent here is to project where the rookies COULD potentially fall in a standard dynasty start-up draft and at least get a small idea of how to value them since there's not really any info on current ADP values for the 2020 rookies.

With it being so early and so many other variables involved, I'm sure things will change, but hopefully this will provide us all a decent starting/talking point. I'll use a 12-team, .5-PPR format for this exercise, and will cover the top-10 ranked rookies. Without further ado....

1.01: Saquon Barkley, RB
1.02: Christian McCaffrey, RB
1.03: Michael Thomas, WR
1.04: Ezekiel Elliott, RB
1.05: DeAndre Hopkins, WR
1.06: Alvin Kamara, RB
1.07: Dalvin Cook, RB
1.08: Davante Adams, WR
1.09: Nick Chubb, RB
1.10: Tyreek Hill, WR
1.11: Joe Mixon, RB
1.12: Derrick Henry, RB
2.01: Chris Godwin, WR
2.02: Odell Beckham, WR
2.03: *D'Andre Swift, RB* (R1)
2.04: Mike Evans, WR
2.05: Leonard Fournette, RB
2.06: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
2.07: *Jonathan Taylor, RB* (R2)
2.08: Amari Cooper, WR
2.09: *CeeDee Lamb, WR* (R3)
2.10: *Jerry Jeudy, WR* (R4)
2.11: Aaron Jones, RB
2.12: *JK Dobbins, RB* (R5)
3.01: Josh Jacobs, RB
3.02: *Cam Akers, RB* (R6)
3.03: DJ Moore, WR
3.04: *Tee Higgins, WR* (R7)
3.05: Julio Jones, WR
3.06: *Laviska Shenault, WR* (R8)
3.07: Stefon Diggs, WR
3.08: *Henry Ruggs, WR* (R9)
3.09: Courtland Sutton, WR
3.10: Kenny Golladay, WR
3.11: Patrick Mahomes, QB
3.12: George Kittle, TE
4.01: AJ Brown, WR
4.02: *Jalen Reagor, WR* (R10)

I'm sure some might have players a few picks higher or lower than I do, but the goal here is to see how people feel about the range of players a rookie is drafted near, rather than the specific pick used to draft them. Let me know what you guys think.
Last edited by davieglove34 on Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
10-Team, .5 PPR Dynasty League.
1-QB / 2-RB / 2-WR / 1-TE / 2-FLEX / 1-D/ST / 1-K / 12-BN / 3-IR / 3-TAXI SQUAD


QB: Josh Allen / Matthew Stafford / Ben Roethlisberger / Phillip Rivers
RB: Le'Veon Bell / James Conner / Chris Carson / Mark Ingram / Boston Scott
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. / Amari Cooper / Mike Evans / Terry McLaurin / Sammy Watkins / Dede Westbrook / Preston Williams / Breshad Perriman / Josh Reynolds
TE: Noah Fant / Rob Gronkowski / Jack Doyle / Will Dissly
D/ST: Patriots / Steelers
K: Robbie Gould

Taxi:

Draft Picks:
2020: 1st (1.08) / 2nd (2.06)
2021: 2nd / 3rd
2022: 1st / 2nd / 3rd

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Re: Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:49 pm

Way too many rookies in this, and they are too early. Guys like CD Lamb aren't going to go ahead of guys like AJB, for instance. Swift won't go ahead of Evans etc.
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Re: Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

Postby Friction » Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:00 pm

I agree with Freak. Some of those Rooks are way too aggressive, though I appreciate you going out on a limb. Akers is an intriguing prospect, but not at 3.01.
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QB:Brady, Cousins
RB: Barkley, Chubb, Jacobs, Henry, Mack, Love
WR: Nuk, Thielen, Cooks, Parris, Gallup
TE: Henry, Olsen, Herndon

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Re: Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:07 pm

Was JuJu Smith-Schuster an oversight or you do not project him to be drafted in the top 36?
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

Postby Mjvb5 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:09 pm

Agree with the above, based off of this a quarter of the top 40 will be rookies. Way too bullish on them for me. Guys like ajb were going as late firsts then had a phenomenal rookie year, and by this guys like terry, Gallup, juju and kupp aren’t even worth a first
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D. Free, Howard, Ingram, demarco, AP, Powell
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Re: Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

Postby davieglove34 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:14 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:49 pm
Way too many rookies in this, and they are too early. Guys like CD Lamb aren't going to go ahead of guys like AJB, for instance. Swift won't go ahead of Evans etc.
You're probably right. I may have wound up squeezing the last few in there, although I also just honestly can't say for sure since there's just no stats or data on them right now.
10-Team, .5 PPR Dynasty League.
1-QB / 2-RB / 2-WR / 1-TE / 2-FLEX / 1-D/ST / 1-K / 12-BN / 3-IR / 3-TAXI SQUAD


QB: Josh Allen / Matthew Stafford / Ben Roethlisberger / Phillip Rivers
RB: Le'Veon Bell / James Conner / Chris Carson / Mark Ingram / Boston Scott
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. / Amari Cooper / Mike Evans / Terry McLaurin / Sammy Watkins / Dede Westbrook / Preston Williams / Breshad Perriman / Josh Reynolds
TE: Noah Fant / Rob Gronkowski / Jack Doyle / Will Dissly
D/ST: Patriots / Steelers
K: Robbie Gould

Taxi:

Draft Picks:
2020: 1st (1.08) / 2nd (2.06)
2021: 2nd / 3rd
2022: 1st / 2nd / 3rd

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Re: Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

Postby davieglove34 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:15 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:07 pm
Was JuJu Smith-Schuster an oversight or you do not project him to be drafted in the top 36?
Good catch. He was an oversight. I'll fix it now. Thanks
10-Team, .5 PPR Dynasty League.
1-QB / 2-RB / 2-WR / 1-TE / 2-FLEX / 1-D/ST / 1-K / 12-BN / 3-IR / 3-TAXI SQUAD


QB: Josh Allen / Matthew Stafford / Ben Roethlisberger / Phillip Rivers
RB: Le'Veon Bell / James Conner / Chris Carson / Mark Ingram / Boston Scott
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. / Amari Cooper / Mike Evans / Terry McLaurin / Sammy Watkins / Dede Westbrook / Preston Williams / Breshad Perriman / Josh Reynolds
TE: Noah Fant / Rob Gronkowski / Jack Doyle / Will Dissly
D/ST: Patriots / Steelers
K: Robbie Gould

Taxi:

Draft Picks:
2020: 1st (1.08) / 2nd (2.06)
2021: 2nd / 3rd
2022: 1st / 2nd / 3rd

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Re: Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

Postby flashgordon12 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:28 pm

Yeah AJB is way too low. And where's my boy DK? But thanks for the work, I like it!
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QB- Andrew Luck, Josh Allen
RB- MGIII, Mixon, Cohen, Devonta Freeman
WR- AB, Odell Beckham Jr., Josh Gordon, Tyler Boyd, Marqise Lee, Sutton, MVS
TE- Gronk, Higbee
DEF- Denver

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Re: Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

Postby Shcritters » Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:21 pm

I LOVE the idea of this and kudos to you for sticking your neck out there with these rankings. That said, there are way too many rookies on this list and they are way too high. If a top 5 rookie ends up in a perfect situation I could then going late, maybe mid, 2nd in a startup, but that’s about as early as I think one could go. There aren’t any Barkley’s or Zeke’s coming out this year that would drive into the 1st or early 2nd.

For reference, I own AJB and would have a hard time giving him up in a straight swap for any rookie at this point. That may change based on what they do at the combine and who gets drafted where, but 1 year of already showing in the NFL is worth a lot when compared to draft pedigree and the underwear olympics.
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RB: Chubb ($5 - 2022), Gurley ($58 - 2020), Mixon ($7 - 2023), Guice ($6 - 2022), MWilliams ($1-2024)
WR: Julio ($75 - 2019), Cooper ($12 - 2021), JuJu SS ($2 - 2023), Diggs ($2 - 2021), Watkins ($15 - 2020), MWilliams ($9 - 2022), Kirk ($2 - 2024), Isabella ($2 - 2025)
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QB: Mahomes, Mayfield, Carr
RB: Cook, Chubb, Connor, Mattison, Ogunbowale, Richard, Crowell
WR: MThomas, Tyreek, Davis, Sutton, AJBrown, Dorsett, PRichardson, DParker, Doctson, Cain
TE: Dissly, OJHoward, McDonald, Shaheen, Vannett, Fells
2020: 1st (late), 2nd (early), 3rd, 4th

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Re: Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

Postby ArrylT » Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:32 am

davieglove34 wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:15 pm
ArrylT wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:07 pm
Was JuJu Smith-Schuster an oversight or you do not project him to be drafted in the top 36?
Good catch. He was an oversight. I'll fix it now. Thanks
No problem. I have done the same thing. :thumbup:
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

Postby Straycatz2 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:17 am

Rookies are way high. Thats like saying you would give up Evans for 1.01 and give up DJ Moore for 1.06.
I would love to sell my picks to you :)
Right now AJ Brown is going for around 1.02 or so. In that case most of the rookies would be drafted after AJ brown then in a startup. At least thats how I see it.
12 Team PPR Standard League 1xQB, 2xRB, 3xWR, 1xTE, 1xFlex
QB: Burrows, Wentz, Eason
RB: CEH, Taylor, Dobbins, Hunt, J Hill, J Robinson
WR: Adams, Golladay, Metcalf, Jeudy, Reagor, Pittman, Shenault, P. Williams
TE: Andrews, Hockenson, Herndon, Everett


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Re: Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

Postby IBall2 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:40 am

Looking at historical ADP data in the month of August (picked this month because it's closest to season start but still without really seeing the rookies play) I believe we can get a better understanding of where rookies should be ranked. I'll just examine the top 3 rookie picks/ADPs because it seems there usually aren't many more than 3 or 4 in the top 50 and I don't want this to be a huge post:
year - pick = adp
2019 - 1.01 = 32
2018 - 1.01 = 5
2017 - 1.01 = 22
2016 - 1.01 = 6
2015 - 1.01 = 16

2019 - 1.02 = 39
2018 - 1.02 = 27
2017 - 1.02 = 24
2016 - 1.02 = 24
2015 - 1.02 = 21

2019 - 1.03 = 58
2018 - 1.03 = 39 (1.04 was 42)
2017 - 1.03 = 26 (1.04 was 28 and 1.05 was 36)
2016 - 1.03 = 32 (1.04 was 35 and 1.05 was 37)
2015 - 1.03 = 31 (1.04 was 32 and 1.05 was 36)

The 2015 and 2016 class ended up with the most players inside the top 50ADP (8 total in each class) with Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, TJ Yeldon, Ameer Abdullah, Breshad Perriman all being busts inside the top 50.

Even if this is an exceptional class, there should only be 4 or 5 players max on the list presented (top 38).

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Re: Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

Postby mild » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:41 am

Judging by your post count, it seems like you could be new-ish here... you're doing great work, but you should relax! There is a report coming from one of our valued forum members (cmizelle) that will contain this exact ADP data that you seek. :)

We're all looking forward to it, as there's been quite a lot of movement in the last few months... it's always an informative read. 8-)

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Re: Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

Postby IBall2 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:44 am

Adding on to my last post:

OP has 7 rookies between picks 19 and 30, I think there should be more like 2 maybe 3 total rookies in that range.

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Re: Possible 2020 Start-Up Dynasty ADPs (including 2020 rookies)

Postby bjd5211 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:46 am

I don't care if it is 1QB, no way I'm letting Mahomes fall all the way to 3.11. He's so far ahead of the rest of his position outside of maybe Lamar, and will have more longevity than any position player. Take him and you have your QB slot taken care of the entirety of your time in the league most likely and can focus on your other positions.


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