Any early consensus on 2020 rookie draft?

[Rustycage]

@Cult

My pick is the 1.01 and I earned that all on my own. lol

My trade history:

16MAY19: I traded 2019 2.03 & 2.09 for a LB and 2020 1st (ended up being 1.02) Those two picks turned in to DK and Singletary. I'd love to have those two guys, but I'll have to make the best of it.

23JUL19: I traded D. Henry for a 2020 1st (ended up 1.03) I have some regret, but at the time I felt like I was getting a steal.

25SEP19: I traded P Lindsay for a 2020 1st (ended up 1.04) He offered, I clicked accept.

11OCT19: I traded C. Kirk to a playoff contender for 2020 1st (ended up 1.06) he missed the playoffs by the tie breaker.

That kinda sums it up. I feel like I did pretty good on those particular trades. The Henry trade stings a little now, but I never saw this type of season coming from Henry.

[Cult of Dionysus]

How did DK fall to 15? He was a consensus top 5.

Again, would you mind posting a league link?

[Rustycage]

https://www62.myfantasyleague.com/2019/home/63067#0

That's to this year, not sure if it will show the history.

To answer your question. We added IDP to the league of 12 people, and only 2 people have ever done it before. Top that off with only 2 people having ever done dynasty, and a full 6 people this is their first league. We are a league of friends and co-workers, I honestly love the league, but the effort some people put into it is pretty minimal. I'd bet only 3-4 people had an idea of how to rate the rookies in the rookie draft other than whatever the website suggested, myself included. I've come a long way this season in my knowledge gathering skills. Mostly thanks to you guys on this forum.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Awesome. Thanks for the background and welcome to the forums.

[BigJoeWall72]

How did DK fall to 15? He was a consensus top 5.

Again, would you mind posting a league link?

Man, this jumped out at me as not meshing with what actually happened in rookie drafts or discussions on this forum. Depending on when a league's draft was, DK very well could have been a late 1st... and if you throw in IDPs, it could have been even later.

In my four rookie drafts, all with different members, scoring rules, starting requirements, and draft dates, DK went 1.07 (once in May and once in July), 1.08 (in May), and 1.09 (in June). Looks like DK was outside the top-5 of Mizelle's rankings after June as well. Plus there was that huge thread about him leading up to the draft where people were all over the map with their opinion of him.

I'd agree that falling to 15th was probably rare, but I totally disagree that he was a consensus top-5 pick.

And I don't mean to jump all over a possibly off-hand comment from you, but I think it's important to not lose sight of the ebbs and flows of rookie's rankings throughout the whole off-season.

Lastly, combining this DK offshoot with the actual thread topic... there sure seem to be a consensus top-5 right now in the 2020 draft, in no particular order yet. However, the combine and pro days and draft slots and teams they go to all can change those opinions. I've also got a 1.06 draft pick like OP, and I'm banking on someone who is not a top-5 ranked player right now jumping into that group and pushing one of those top-5 guys down to the 1.06 - seems like it happens almost every year [see DK getting pushed down due to a perceived bad combine].

[Valhalla]

By the way...I didn't even realize there was a consensus #1, but I guess I'm in the dark because multiple people go along with the stipulation that there's a consensus top 5.

There isn't a consensus #1 in 1QB (Burrow is #1 in SF/2QB), but there is a consensus top 5 at this time, the question generally is what order to put them in. There are sure to be some outliers who don't agree that Dobbins, Jeudy, Lamb, Swift, Taylor are the top 5 currently, but the definition of consensus is "a general agreement", and the vast majority of people on this forum are in agreement that those are the top 5 prospects in this class at this time. Just about every mock draft or ranking I've seen on this forum has had those 5 players and Travis Etienne (going back to when it was assumed he would declare) ranked or drafted among the top 6.

Yeah I understand that. There's a funny thing about taking a consensus of this community, though. I'd venture most (the consensus) come to these forums with few really solid opinions/scouting formulas/experienced eyes. They come to these forums to gather opinions, and when they hear something enough times, they adopt that opinion for their own. The consensus is gathering opinions of the consensus...and that consensus is an echo chamber with very few members creating the original noise with their insights. This is true in everything, but ESPECIALLY true on a forum that largely attracts people searching for opinions.
I'm not criticizing it. I'm just making the point for people to realize that the consensus isn't often a consensus of hundreds of forum members' original opinions...but a consensus of hundreds of forum members who have all listened to the echos and shouted the heard echo themselves, and so it grows...and suddenly one or two solid opinions become a consensus of 50 forum members all repeating this opinion.

[PR0v3]

By the way...I didn't even realize there was a consensus #1, but I guess I'm in the dark because multiple people go along with the stipulation that there's a consensus top 5.

There isn't a consensus #1 in 1QB (Burrow is #1 in SF/2QB), but there is a consensus top 5 at this time, the question generally is what order to put them in. There are sure to be some outliers who don't agree that Dobbins, Jeudy, Lamb, Swift, Taylor are the top 5 currently, but the definition of consensus is "a general agreement", and the vast majority of people on this forum are in agreement that those are the top 5 prospects in this class at this time. Just about every mock draft or ranking I've seen on this forum has had those 5 players and Travis Etienne (going back to when it was assumed he would declare) ranked or drafted among the top 6.

Yeah I understand that. There's a funny thing about taking a consensus of this community, though. I'd venture most (the consensus) come to these forums with few really solid opinions/scouting formulas/experienced eyes. They come to these forums to gather opinions, and when they hear something enough times, they adopt that opinion for their own. The consensus is gathering opinions of the consensus...and that consensus is an echo chamber with very few members creating the original noise with their insights. This is true in everything, but ESPECIALLY true on a forum that largely attracts people searching for opinions.
I'm not criticizing it. I'm just making the point for people to realize that the consensus isn't often a consensus of hundreds of forum members' original opinions...but a consensus of hundreds of forum members who have all listened to the echos and shouted the heard echo themselves, and so it grows...and suddenly one or two solid opinions become a consensus of 50 forum members all repeating this opinion.

Yea this is why I don't care about much besides the NFL draft results. I'm not a professional level scout, and I know most, if not all, here aren't either. I like reading everyone's takes about these guys, and think I have an idea of who I like based on what people say and limited video research, but if the draft rolls around and the expectations don't meet reality, I won't be stuck on the predraft amateur scout consensus for a second.

[grandmabetty]

I cant seem to find any threads doing in depth analysis of the 2020 rookies. Please direct me to the thread if there is one. Wanted to start this to get a discussion going of rookie rankings/player analysis. Ive seen some people post really in depth rankings and comparisons on this site before and its very valuable information. I just acquired the 1.03 and it seems most websites list 5 rookies as being sure things

Swift
Dobbins
Taylor
Lamb
Juedy

Of course a lot will change from now until draft time but any discussion of rookies/player profiles, landing spots, projections are welcome

[Mike from Canada]

There is a thread with about 75,000,000 posts in this forum.

[Cult of Dionysus]

How did DK fall to 15? He was a consensus top 5.

Again, would you mind posting a league link?

Man, this jumped out at me as not meshing with what actually happened in rookie drafts or discussions on this forum. Depending on when a league's draft was, DK very well could have been a late 1st... and if you throw in IDPs, it could have been even later.

In my four rookie drafts, all with different members, scoring rules, starting requirements, and draft dates, DK went 1.07 (once in May and once in July), 1.08 (in May), and 1.09 (in June). Looks like DK was outside the top-5 of Mizelle's rankings after June as well. Plus there was that huge thread about him leading up to the draft where people were all over the map with their opinion of him.

I'd agree that falling to 15th was probably rare, but I totally disagree that he was a consensus top-5 pick.

And I don't mean to jump all over a possibly off-hand comment from you, but I think it's important to not lose sight of the ebbs and flows of rookie's rankings throughout the whole off-season.

Lastly, combining this DK offshoot with the actual thread topic... there sure seem to be a consensus top-5 right now in the 2020 draft, in no particular order yet. However, the combine and pro days and draft slots and teams they go to all can change those opinions. I've also got a 1.06 draft pick like OP, and I'm banking on someone who is not a top-5 ranked player right now jumping into that group and pushing one of those top-5 guys down to the 1.06 - seems like it happens almost every year [see DK getting pushed down due to a perceived bad combine].

No worries, as long as you're civil, I'm open to be challenged and proven wrong. I'm often wrong so I've got lots of practice.

DKs ADP per Mizelle was rookie 1.05 in May. And he did go 1.05 in my non-Superflex league, 1.02 in a Superflex league (taken by Ice, his biggest supporter here) and 1.07 in another Superflex. I recognize that the word "consensus" may be a bit heavy for DK at 1.05, but think we can agree that in many if not a majority of drafts he went 1.05 (1.06 in Superflex) or higher. I don't do IDP and my statement doesn't favor in defensive players.