Do you find trading up worth it

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Wizard
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Do you find trading up worth it

Postby Wizard » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:22 pm

It seems everyone pretty much is wanting to get in the top of the first round, which makes sense. But have you found trading a decent player plus a lower first round to move up in the first round pays off? I see some people testing the waters to move up like one poster asking if Kirk plus 1.07 to move to the 1.02 is a deal that would work. My question is, do you find that trading up is worth it most of the time since it seems you have to give up quite a bit to move up to get into the "elite" prospects. I know each situation is different but how often does it payoff.
QB -Tom Brady, Nick Foles Deshaun Watson

RB - Kenyan Drake, Darrius Guise, Tevin Coleman, Leonard Fournett, Kareem Hunt, Justin Jackson, Jaylen Samuels, Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson Jr., Jordan Wilkins, CJ Anderson, Chris Warren,

WR - Davante Adams , T.Y. Hilton, Courtland Sutton, Devin Funchess, Doug Baldwin, Michael Crabtree, Antonio Callaway, J’Mon Moore, Dylan Cantrell, Keith Kirkwood, James Richie

TE - Zach Ertz, Harris Demetrius, Hayden Hurst

DynoScout
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Re: Do you find trading up worth it

Postby DynoScout » Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:27 pm

Trading up has worked out for me more often than not...When it has I've either been pretty certain on my target (Barkley), paid a modest amount (jumped up one spot to take Sanders, trade partner took Montgomery and my 3rd round pick), or was up against the roster limit and needed to package up some pieces or lose them (something>nothing)

I'd say the most crucial component is cost, since your focus seems to be moving up to the high first round. Those picks are exclusive and price usually reflects that. That said giving up Kirk+1.07 for 1.02 is something I would do, as I see at least two elite "situation-proof" prospects. It may not work out in my favor, but I'd pay to find out.

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Re: Do you find trading up worth it

Postby DynoScout » Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:30 pm

That said trading down has also worked out for me more often than not, so the key is probably good player evaluation and good assessment of how your league values draft picks/prospects. If you can find inefficiencies in either one of those areas with a degree of consistency then trading might just work out and be worth it,,,, whether you're trading up, down, or out.

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Re: Do you find trading up worth it

Postby Factory of Sadness » Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:48 pm

As DynoScout says, the art is figuring out whether to go up or down in any given year, and in each specific draft. This year will be interesting because whilst the narrative is that there's no reason to go up because the draft is so deep, there's also massive excitement about the top 4-6 slots. I tend to try and move either up or down just after the combine, depending upon what I think will make most sense- and then again after the NFL draft. Last year was kind of dull in that chalk ran solidly from 1.01 down to the mid 2nd. This year might be similar, but if the NFL draft falls right, it could be enjoyable chaos.
If we're looking at simple rules, I'd suggest two:
It is usually worth it to pay up for a guy you are convinced will be a stud.
Dynasty consensus is always wrong, so it makes sense to exploit values by dropping for guys you really like.

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Re: Do you find trading up worth it

Postby perkinsrooster » Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:17 pm

I'm really hesitant to trade up this year due to the hype surrounding the top 6.

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Needalife
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Re: Do you find trading up worth it

Postby Needalife » Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:30 pm

I've had hits and misses moving up. This year, I moved up from 1.11 to 1.07 to snag D Henderson and traded a late 2nd and early 3rd to move up to 2.03 to get JJAW. This was a painful one... the other three picks turned into AJ Brown, Devin White and McLaurin.

I seem to do better when I make bigger moves to get into that top 3 range... Calvin, Dez, Julio, CMC to name a few.
TEAM 1 - 12 TEAM PPR TE PREMIUM - 1 QB / 2 RB / 2 WR / 1 TE / 3 FX / 1 DL / 2 LB / 2 DB / 1 DFX
QB: Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Miles Sanders, Joe Mixon, Austen Ekeler, Boston Scott, Gio Bernard, Kalen Ballage, Derrius Guice
WR: Julio Jones, Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper, Courtland Suttion, Parris Campbell, Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Bryan Edwards, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
TE: Dallas Goedert, Hunter Henry, Logan Thomas, Cole Kmet, Ian Thomas
DL: Jason Pierre-Paul
LB: Darius Leonard, Jayon Brown, Foyesade Oluokon, Matt Milano, De'Vondre Campbell, Tyrell Adams, Dre Greenlaw, Leighton Vander Esch
DB: Jordan Poyer, Jeremy Chinn, Tracy Walker, Xavier McKinney
2021 PICKS: 2nd

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Re: Do you find trading up worth it

Postby briank » Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:55 pm

Wizard wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:22 pm
It seems everyone pretty much is wanting to get in the top of the first round, which makes sense. But have you found trading a decent player plus a lower first round to move up in the first round pays off? I see some people testing the waters to move up like one poster asking if Kirk plus 1.07 to move to the 1.02 is a deal that would work. My question is, do you find that trading up is worth it most of the time since it seems you have to give up quite a bit to move up to get into the "elite" prospects. I know each situation is different but how often does it payoff.
It all depends on the price. I’ve moved up and down and been happy with the results.
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Mayfield/Winston
RB Mixon/A. Jones/Ja. Williams/Bernard/AP
WR Hopkins/Thomas/DJ Moore/Robinson/Jeffery/Preston Williams
TE Ertz/Cook/Hurst

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Roethlisberger/Fitzpatrick
RB Cook/Mixon/J. Robinson/Ja. Williams/Hines
WR Evans/Woods/Cooks/Fuller/AB/Miller/Diontae Johnson
TE Kittle/Henry/L. Thomas

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Burrow
RB Jacobs/Dobbins/Bernard/Dillon/Edwards
WR Adams/Diggs/AJ Brown/Woods/Cooks/Ruggs/Davis
TE Engram/Henry/Hurst/Njoku/Irv Smith

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 11
QB Jackson/Brees/Rivers
RB Da. Johnson/Gurley
WR Adams/Hopkins/Julio/Thielen/Hilton
TE Kelce/Ertz/Irv

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Goff/Herbert/Tua
RB
WR Juju/Sutton/Juedy/Jefferson/Samuel
TE Kittle/Fant/Njoku
6 2021 1sts

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ArrylT
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Re: Do you find trading up worth it

Postby ArrylT » Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:05 pm

I rarely regret trading up because it usually ensures I can draft the player I want - piece of mind is worth more than many think. :)
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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MrUbuto
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Re: Do you find trading up worth it

Postby MrUbuto » Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:34 pm

I successfully traded up for henry and chubb. I think pick 5 and 6 respectively.

Fell in love with them and say they could be had for less than a kings ransom.

Did the same for Corey davis and that was a miss
QB - DWatson(HOU)Minshew(JAX)Winston(TB)
RB -NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)JTaylor(IND)Gurley(ATL)
WR -ACooper(DAL)CGodwin(TB)OBJ(CLE)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Crosby(GB)
Def - ARI HOU
[rookie] NHarry(NE)Haskins(WAS)
DSwift(DET)Ruggs(NV)Jefferson(MIN)

2 1sts - 2021's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

Pew Dogs
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Re: Do you find trading up worth it

Postby Pew Dogs » Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:49 pm

I rarely have first round picks. I usually trade trade them for young players who i think are about to explode (Boyd, Gallup, Godwin) or older players people are selling too soon (Hilton, Fournette, D.Freeman). Unless there’s a true stud you think you can snag I’d shop your picks.

(BTW buy Gallup ... buy buy buy)
12 team, dynasty, ppr, 1RB, 3WR, 1TE,1RB/WR/TEFlex
QB P.Mahomes, R. Tannehill
RB E.Elliott, M.Ingram, D.Freeman, R.Jones,
WR M.Thomas, J.Jones, A.Green, M.Gallup, D.Parker, A.Tate, C.Claypool
TE H.Henry, G.Olsen, J.Oliver

QB P.Mahomes, D.Jones
RB D.Cook, A. Mattison, T.Gurley, R. Armstead, D.Freeman
WR DJ.Moore, A.Robinson, D.Parker, E.Sanders, J.Reynolds, M.Pittman, C.Claypool
TE D.Goedert, I.Thomas, W.Dissly, J.Oliver

12 Team Dynasty ppr, 2QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,3Flex,TE Premium

QB J.Burrow, B.Roethlisberger, P.Rivers, R.Finley, M.Rudolph
RB D.Cook, D.Singletary, T.Cohen, Z.Moss, M.Boone
WR M.Evans, K.Golladay, M.Gallup, P.Williams, R.Anderson, C.Beasley, D.Funchess
TE G.Kittle, E.Engram, R.Dwelley, K.Smith

QB K.Murray, J.Burrow, R.Finley, B.Hundley, M.Rudolph
RB D.Cook, R.Jones, R.Mostert, J.White, A.Mattison, I.Smith, Q.Ollison
WR K.Allen, A.Theilen, AJ.Green, M.Gallup, T.Boyd, H.Renfrow, D.Jackson, J.Reynolds, A.Tate
TE T.Kelce, D.Waller, R.Gronkowski, R.Dwelley, N.Noyle

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dlf_mikeh
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Re: Do you find trading up worth it

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sat Jan 18, 2020 6:42 am

The only time I trade up is when I can sneak into the top 6. Historically the top 6 is where the elite players are. So when I have 1.07 or 1.08, I'll give up a little bit to move up a spot and I'll do it sooner than later because the picks increase in value as we approach the draft.

If I own a 1.01, I'll trade down a spot or two if I'm given enough in return. If I have the 1.02-1.04, I'll move down to the 1.06 at worst for the same reason. Usually without question.

I showed numbers and stats about this somewhere. I tried to find it. Maybe I never published it and it's on my hard drive. I'll look around.
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Orenthal Shames
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Re: Do you find trading up worth it

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sat Jan 18, 2020 8:17 am

It all depends on acquisition cost. I typically deal picks for proven players, but bought both 1.3 and 1.4 in 2019 because it was the cheapest I'd seen in our league the past 5 years to do so.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Tannehill, Brees
RB: Kamara, Sanders
WR: Hill, DK, KA, Julio, Cooks
TE: Kelce, Kittle

honcho55
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Re: Do you find trading up worth it

Postby honcho55 » Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:52 am

This caused me to look through some deals I’ve made. I typically move down or out of the 1st, but here and there I either stand or trade up. Notably last year I moved up, 1.06 and a 3rd for 1.08, 2.08, 2020 2nd to nab Sanders. Trying to think what my board was like and who I would’ve taken at 8, but I’m not real sure. If it was AJ Brown? Probly not worth it. If it was a TE, or Deebo (who I took at 2.01) then I’d say it’s a win.

As for this year, I have 2 and 3 in sig league, 2 and 7 in a SF league, I’ll be holding on those picks almost for sure. I feel like the value is there and if I were in a different position I might be trying to move into those kinds of picks right now.

In more general terms: move up when you really like a prospect. I’d rather swing and miss than let a guy get drafted ahead of me, if it’s a guy I’m very high on. You have to pick your battles though, if you trade up a ton, I’d wager the net result is value loss.
main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -3 for INT
14 team, 15 keeper
start 1QB, SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT

QB: Wilson, Watson
RB: S Barkley, J Taylor, JK Dobbins, T Coleman, G Bernard
WR: J Smith-Schuster, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, A Cooper, C Kirk, A Miller
TE. T Kelce, M Gesicki

Futures
2021: 1.02, 1.13, 2.02, 2.03, 2.11
2022: 1, 1, 1, 2, 3
2023: 1, 1, 3

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Re: Do you find trading up worth it

Postby perkinsrooster » Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:57 am

A few years ago I had 1.07 and 1.09. I offered them both for 1.05 in hopes of getting Corey Davis. The offer was declined and I ended up with some guys named Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara.

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Bot101
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Re: Do you find trading up worth it

Postby Bot101 » Sat Jan 18, 2020 1:37 pm

Im open to trading up when someone I have ranked higher has fallen a pick or 2. This happened last year with Sanders. I was sitting down in the late 1st, the first picks went Jacobs, Harry, Montgomery. The guy at 1.04 wanted Montgomery and was sniped, so that opened up Sanders for me who was my 1.01.

Same thing the year before in the Barkley class. DJ Moore fell to the 6th or 7th pick and I had to jump all over that.


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