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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:07 am
by ArrylT
If I am honest with myself, despite being a Raiders fan, I was sort of hoping Patrick Mahomes would avoid the TD regression that was expected - and the early season signs were indeed positive. However unfortunately it is likely that there is going to be some regression.
His updated pace is now approx 38 TDs. We shall see though - a couple of 5 or 6 TD performances could change things - but with road games against the Patriots & Bears coming up it is not a sure thing.
However yardage wise he is still on pace to break his 2018 total (5097) - as his pace is close to 5600 yards. I think that he'll definitely reach 5000 yards again.
Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:14 am
by bjd5211
All he really needs is a 2-3 game stretch of averaging 4+ TDs to get back to his pace from last year. Which sounds kind of ridiculous for most QBs, but obviously isn't for him. I've said all along that he was obviously going to regress from last years totals, but 35+ TDs and 4,500+ yards is a realistic expectation for him every year, and he is on track to easily reach those numbers like you said. Those numbers are about what the average #1 overall QB puts up in scoring every year when you take the Brady/Peyton/Mahomes mega years out.
Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:59 am
by Patsfan86
bjd5211 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:14 am
All he really needs is a 2-3 game stretch of averaging 4+ TDs to get back to his pace from last year. Which sounds kind of ridiculous for most QBs, but obviously isn't for him. I've said all along that he was obviously going to regress from last years totals, but 35+ TDs and 4,500+ yards is a realistic expectation for him every year, and he is on track to easily reach those numbers like you said. Those numbers are about what the average #1 overall QB puts up in scoring every year when you take the Brady/Peyton/Mahomes mega years out.
Yes definitely. The people who were saying 55 + TDs were just absolutely insane and idk where they got that logic from? But he will def stay in the 35+ 4,500+ range for a long time. I also think many thought he would be just fine without Hill, when he was not. I hate Hill but the guy can play and needs to be taken into account for Mahomes production.
Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:14 am
by Cult of Dionysus
The dude has been playing on a bum ankle for a few weeks, and his O-line is in tatters.
This isn't a "natural" regression. It's UNnatural.
Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:20 am
by Patsfan86
Cult of Dionysus wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:14 am
The dude has been playing on a bum ankle for a few weeks, and his O-line is in tatters.
This isn't a "natural" regression. It's UNnatural.
I can make an argument that injuries are a natural part of the game of football, so yes it is natural.
Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:32 am
by Phaded
Cult of Dionysus wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:14 am
The dude has been playing on a bum ankle for a few weeks, and his O-line is in tatters.
This isn't a "natural" regression. It's UNnatural.
You could argue his situation last year was unnatural if you really want to go down this road.
NFL Network brought up a good point with Mahomes - it's fine for fantasy but not so much in real life. On short downs like 3rd & 4 he is constantly looking for the big play over the first down - seems like that shootout / college football mentality. When it works out it's fine, but sometimes you should just be getting that first down.
Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:12 am
by bjd5211
Cult of Dionysus wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:14 am
The dude has been playing on a bum ankle for a few weeks, and his O-line is in tatters.
This isn't a "natural" regression. It's UNnatural.
It's definitely been a factor, the bigger factor the last 2 weeks has been time of possession, he can't put up numbers if he doesn't have the ball.
Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:20 am
by doublesticks
I think something missing in this argument is his lack of scrambling to pick up a 1st down or to keep a play alive...remember last year all of the highlights of him throwing off the run? Well, right now, he can't run like that.
Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:27 am
by bjd5211
doublesticks wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:20 am
I think something missing in this argument is his lack of scrambling to pick up a 1st down or to keep a play alive...remember last year all of the highlights of him throwing off the run? Well, right now, he can't run like that.
He's still an excellent QB and fantasy performer without his legs, it's just a temporary set back.
Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:18 am
by doublesticks
oh I know, he is a stud, but the time of possession is getting flipped because his legs kept MANY drives alive last year.
Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:10 pm
by ArrylT
It is a shame that their bye week is Week XII - you definitely do not want to risk making that ankle injury worse. Regardless I think he should be fine long term - just too bad that the regression whether natural, unnatural, supernatural or whatnot is likely - would have been fun to see him repeat 50 tds back to back since it would obviously be a NFL 1st.
Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression
Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:44 am
by Jigga94
ArrylT wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:10 pm
It is a shame that their bye week is Week XII - you definitely do not want to risk making that ankle injury worse. Regardless I think he should be fine long term - just too bad that the regression whether natural, unnatural, supernatural or whatnot is likely - would have been fun to see him repeat 50 tds back to back since it would obviously be a NFL 1st.
It does suck for him and owners. Although owners aren't too hurt by this and I still would easily put money that he is the 1st QB to hit 50 TD twice
Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression
Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:33 am
by Patsfan86
And this is why you dont bet on a guy getting 50 TDs again. There are way too many variables and injury is one of them. The Brady 2008 injury comes to mind. On paper he was set up to have another great season of possibly 50 plus Tds, then in one play Brady is out for the season. Wasnt himself due partially to recovering from the ACL in 2009, then Moss is gone in 2010 and there goes any hope of 50 Tds.
Mahomes doesnt have an ACL obviously but will most likely miss a few weeks. Missing a few weeks gives him no shot at 50 TDs and who knows if he has the offensive talent around him to throw 50 Tds again next season or any season after that? I hope Mahomes recovers and can be 100 percent, he is a great player and he can go on to have a great career but the whole 50 TD thing again was ridiculous. I dont think he ever does it again in his career. 35+ sure, but not 50, just way too many variables need to go your way for that to happen. I was stunned at the amount of people here and in real life who thought he could do it again.
Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression
Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:28 am
by jetsfan5757
Weknownothing86 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:33 am
And this is why you dont bet on a guy getting 50 TDs again. There are way too many variables and injury is one of them. The Brady 2008 injury comes to mind. On paper he was set up to have another great season of possibly 50 plus Tds, then in one play Brady is out for the season. Wasnt himself due partially to recovering from the ACL in 2009, then Moss is gone in 2010 and there goes any hope of 50 Tds.
Mahomes doesnt have an ACL obviously but will most likely miss a few weeks. Missing a few weeks gives him no shot at 50 TDs and who knows if he has the offensive talent around him to throw 50 Tds again next season or any season after that? I hope Mahomes recovers and can be 100 percent, he is a great player and he can go on to have a great career but the whole 50 TD thing again was ridiculous. I dont think he ever does it again in his career. 35+ sure, but not 50, just way too many variables need to go your way for that to happen. I was stunned at the amount of people here and in real life who thought he could do it again.
I was in the camp saying to expect regression. I still do. And I agree that variables like injury (not just Mahomes, but to linemen and skill players) make it impossible to put up 50 TDs every year.
But I also firmly believe Mahomes will get to 50 again. Not every year. But I'd be shocked it he doesn't do it at least 1 more time. Doing it twice more wouldn't surprise me, but also wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't.
I think the real point of any Mahomes thread should be: is he the QB1 right now in dynasty and is it close. The answers are yes QB1 and no it's not close.
Caveat to above statement is people paying prices for him as if he will get 5,000 and 50 every year. That's just dumb.
Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression
Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:58 am
by Patsfan86
jetsfan5757 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:28 am
Weknownothing86 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:33 am
And this is why you dont bet on a guy getting 50 TDs again. There are way too many variables and injury is one of them. The Brady 2008 injury comes to mind. On paper he was set up to have another great season of possibly 50 plus Tds, then in one play Brady is out for the season. Wasnt himself due partially to recovering from the ACL in 2009, then Moss is gone in 2010 and there goes any hope of 50 Tds.
Mahomes doesnt have an ACL obviously but will most likely miss a few weeks. Missing a few weeks gives him no shot at 50 TDs and who knows if he has the offensive talent around him to throw 50 Tds again next season or any season after that? I hope Mahomes recovers and can be 100 percent, he is a great player and he can go on to have a great career but the whole 50 TD thing again was ridiculous. I dont think he ever does it again in his career. 35+ sure, but not 50, just way too many variables need to go your way for that to happen. I was stunned at the amount of people here and in real life who thought he could do it again.
I was in the camp saying to expect regression. I still do. And I agree that variables like injury (not just Mahomes, but to linemen and skill players) make it impossible to put up 50 TDs every year.
But I also firmly believe Mahomes will get to 50 again. Not every year. But I'd be shocked it he doesn't do it at least 1 more time. Doing it twice more wouldn't surprise me, but also wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't.
I think the real point of any Mahomes thread should be: is he the QB1 right now in dynasty and is it close. The answers are yes QB1 and no it's not close.
Caveat to above statement is people paying prices for him as if he will get 5,000 and 50 every year. That's just dumb.
Only reason i dont think he will get 50 again isnt because of his talent, its great talent. However you truly need the perfect mixture of things to happen in order to reach that. Only 3 Guys have done it. Two are in the top 3 Qbs ever discussion. Brady needed top talent like Moss and Welker and Manning needed Welker, and in his prime DT along with others to throw that many TDs. You just need a great mixture of things and so much to go right in order for that to happen again. Mahomes is young where as the other 2 were far older when they did it so i could be wrong but its just much harder to do than i think many seem to believe.