Rookie 1.01 and Startups

[jomaed]

As we know it is almost always better to wait until draft time to trade picks, unless a crazy overpay comes along. Will selling for mid 2nd round value be selling low like it was when Zeek moved quickly to top 10 startup value after the Cowboys took him? How high do we think the 1.01 gets during startups after the NFL draft occurs and all the dust settles with pro days and training camp and such.

[PTW32]

I would guess this years top rookie will go early 2nd in startups, maybe late 1st if Swift lands in KC

[Mjvb5]

If I can get a Godwin, Moore, Mixon, Jacobs type for it yeah I’d sell my 1.1 in a heartbeat

[sloth8u]

Its really hard to imagine most owners preferring any rookie over the top 20-25 vets, so id say its most likely your top rookie will go somewhere between 20 and 30. Obviously each startup is different and any owner could jump the gun, but its hard for me to see a scenario in which any rookie becomes 1st rd startup as we sit here today.

It would be really hard to put any position other than rb there. That eliminates our wrs. Draft pedigree and landing spot had alot to do with ee and barkley being so coveted that they were going that early. I know things can change, or a team could step out of the box, but how excited would we be to see a rb go to miami or atlanta? The teams most likely to draft rb early imo.... If arizona were to go rb, that may stir the pot. Rightfully so, there is chatter about the chiefs taking rb early. That may verywell happen but im not sure that vaults said rb into top 12 overall.

[FantasyFreak]

Rookie 1.01's usually go in the 2nd. If a top back goes to a good spot, I can see the 15-20 range.

[OhCruelestRanter]

It’s really hard for me to see the value of 1.01 going down over the next 4 months. Unless you’re getting first round startup value I’d just hold.

[Vcize]

The rookies going in the 1st round really have required either the marriage of great prospect and ideal situation, or a truly generational prospect like Barkley.

There are lots of really good backs in this year's class but no generational Barkley level player. So it is going to take one of the top guys going to the perfect situation (KC) for them to get 1st round consideration this year I think.

[XclickX]

So in SF Burrow is worth a top 20-25 non qb?

[Shcritters]

I remember someone posting a chart of ADP for rookie picks for the last 3 years (2017, 2018, and 2019). It was SUPER helpful... showed that late 2nds last year were much worse than in previous years (supposed weak draft class). If someone posted that information again for 2020 it would be glorious!

I'd also be surprised if the 1.01 cracked the top 20 this year. There are some great players, but no Barkley's (who was going mid-1st startup ADP the year he came out).

[Mjvb5]

My guess is this classes ADP is relatively similar to the 2017 rookie class ADP, this feels like a similar hype level and view points on the depth/strength etc. Which also means that while the first guy off the board won't be mid first ALA Barkley or Zeke, there will be quite a few going in the 20-40 range

[Straycatz2]

I'd also be surprised if the 1.01 cracked the top 20 this year. There are some great players, but no Barkley's (who was going mid-1st startup ADP the year he came out).

Often times rookies is about landing spot, at least for RB. Last mock I saw had Dobbins go to KC late first. If this happens he would easily go top 20.

[XclickX]

Barkley went 1.02 after Gurley in a ppr 1 qb start-up I did in August 2018. I don’t think we see a rookie going top 2 ever again.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Barkley went 1.02 after Gurley in a ppr 1 qb start-up I did in August 2018. I don’t think we see a rookie going top 2 ever again.

Idk. We’ll probably never see a rookie with an August Startup ADP of 1.02, but even Barkley only made it to an ADP of 1.05, per Mizelle. We won’t see one this year, but I think we’ll probably see a similar ADP at some point.

Here’s the thing- Zeke’s ADP never quite got that high as a rookie, but it probably should have been given the top 5 pedigree and the perfect situation. I think Zeke and Barkley really opened the community up to the idea of taking a rookie in the early-mid first round.

[jomaed]

So in SF Burrow is worth a top 20-25 non qb?

DLF just put out an article with a SF startup mock that included rookie picks. Looks like 1.01 went 24th overall.

[Mjvb5]

So in SF Burrow is worth a top 20-25 non qb?

DLF just put out an article with a SF startup mock that included rookie picks. Looks like 1.01 went 24th overall.

That feels high to me in SF, putting Burrow in the same conversation as Dak, Baker, Arod, Godwin, jacobs, Mixon, and Moore