Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

[kmbryant09]

I somehow thought the National Championship game between Clemson & LSU was last night, not realizing that it was next Monday night. So I took some time to watch some film on the top 2020 RB & WR prospects, figured I would share some of my thoughts. For the record, I try to break-down whatever play-by-play film is available, rather than relying on highlight reels.

I know there's a lengthy thread on the 2020 draft class in general, but thought this thread could lead to some in-depth discussion breaking down some of the most popular prospects (and some under-the-radar guys as well).

D'Andre Swift - When I watch his 2019 tape, I don't see a true game-breaker that I expected to see. I see a well-rounded player who is clearly a natural football player, but one that lacks elite explosiveness. His 2019 game tape reminds me of Duke Johnson.

But when I watch his 2018 tape, I see the player that everyone is drooling over. He looked much more explosive, and more decisive as a runner. I'm not sure if he's playing through injuries this year, or if his playing weight has increased, but I see 2 different players from the past 2 years. Among the top RB's, he's not the fastest (Etienne), biggest (Taylor / Dobbins), or most natural runner (Taylor / Dobbines), be he's probably the best pass-catcher. He's a player that will likely be the most fluid throughout the pre-draft process for me. If he performs well at the combine and goes relatively high in the NFL draft, I will be forced to trust his 2018 game tape and keep him in the conversation for 1.01 overall pick. For now, he's likely my 1.03 pick.

2018 Player Comparison: LeSean McCoy
2019 Player Comparison: Duke Johnson

Jerry Jeudy - I don't watch much college football until it's time to grind some tape, but even I couldn't avoid hearing so many positive things about Jeudy in college. Which is why it was surprising to hear some question his ability and place as the top prospect in this draft. When I watch tape, it's even more confusing to hear some criticisms because I see a true difference maker who's game should translate to the NFL. He can play both inside and out, and relies on phenomenal route running thanks in large part to an elite ability to change direction. While undersized against press coverage, he uses his quickness and leverage to win off the line, and is a natural hands catcher away from his body. He will likely be my undisputed 1.01 pick.

I'm curious to see his measurables at the combine because he has such a slight frame. My biggest concern is that his small frame will lead to lower body injuries throughout his career. It would be huge if he can weigh in close to 200 pounds.

Player Comparison: Odell Beckham, Jr.

J.K. Dobbins - One of my favorite players in this class even before his recent rise over the 2nd half of the season (and his performance in the bowl game). He's not the sexiest RB, but I think he's the most well-rounded back in this class. He holds up well in pass protection, is a natural pass-catcher, and utilizes vision, lateral agility, and physicality as a runner. There's really nothing he can't do for an NFL team, and I believe whichever team drafts him will do so with the full intent of using him as a 3-down RB. I cannot say the same about Jonathan Taylor & Travis Etienne. While many scouts think Taylor is the best pure runner in this class, I think Dobbins can give him a run for his money in the NFL. And Dobbins' 3-down skill-set (and Taylor's fumbling & workload concerns) give him the edge in my rankings.

Player Comparison: Matt Forte (thought Zeke was too easy of a comparison, but they are/were very similar prospects to me)

Travis Etienne - His strengths are obvious: speed, speed, and more speed. He's an explosive player who thrives in space, yet shows a willingness and toughness between the tackles. While his tackle-breaking ability has been debated, one obvious weakness of his is vision & patience. I don't think he's a natural between-the-tackles runner like Taylor or Dobbins, but I'd argue that he can take more advantage of clear rushing lanes because of his acceleration and top-end speed. While he's an above-average pass-catcher, I think he struggles as a pass protector and I haven't seen him run a lot of routes besides screens & check-downs.

I think Etienne's NFL projections are going to be very sensitive to the offense & scheme that he lands in. Imagine him in KC with Andy Reid scheming him into space and on his patented screen passes? He'd be in the conversation for the 1.01 pick in dynasty drafts. But if he goes to an uglier spot like NYJ or MIA, I think he might struggle a bit unless those offenses drastically improve.

Player Comparison: Chris Johnson / C.J. Spiller

CeeDee Lamb - He's a tough player for me to evaluate, sort of like the D'Andre Swift at the WR position. He's not the fastest WR in this draft (Reagor / Ruggs), he's not the biggest (Shenault / Higgins), and he's not the best route-runner (Jeudy / Jefferson). But he might be the best all-around WR, and the biggest compliment I can give him, as simple as it sounds, is that he's such a natural Wide Receiver. Some WR's coming out of college are more running back or play-maker disguised as a receiver, but Lamb was born to play this position.

I worry that he's not explosive enough and that his size is more of a negative than positive - after all he's listed at just 190 pounds despite a 6'2" frame. His "lack" of size didn't hurt him in college, but playing in the Big12 didn't really expose him to elite boundary corners and he wasn't asked to beat press-coverage as much as other receivers in this class. If he's not able to put on 5 - 10 pounds of muscle mass in the NFL, I could see him struggling against physical corners at the next level. If he can, he should have no problem being a productive all-around WR for the next decade as someone who relies more on route running, ball tracking, and contested catches rather than athleticism and speed.

Player Comparison: Davante Adams

Jonathan Taylor - For a big and physical RB, I came away very impressed by Taylor's break-away speed. Behind Wisconsin's massive O-Line, Taylor deserves his fair share of credit for creating yards between-the-tackles, but I was most impressed by his ability to turn a bunch of 10 - 15 yard gains into 40+ yard touchdown runs. Highly regarded as the best pure runner in this class, Taylor also showed improvement as a pass-catcher this season. I highly doubt he'll ever be a plus pass-catcher in the NFL, I don't think he possesses the elite change-of-direction ability and natural hands that most satellite backs have in the NFL, but he should be able to supplement heavy rushing volume with just enough pass-catching work on screens and basic check-downs.

While some studies show that age, not touches, lead to Running Back decline in the NFL, there are some workload concerns for Taylor coming out of college. We're seeing RB's declining at an earlier and earlier age, most notably seeing RB's like Gurley, Bell, D. Johnson, Zeke (in my opinion), Gordon, Freeman, etc. losing explosiveness all before the age of 27. It's certainly not a death sentence, but I'd prefer my Rookie RB to have fewer miles on his tires than what Taylor has.

Player Comparison: Leonard Fournette

This is all a very fluid situation, and the combine & NFL draft will provide additional data points for our analysis. But right now, here's a tentative look at my Big Board:

1.01 - Jerry Jeudy

1.02 - J.K. Dobbins
1.03 - D'Andre Swift
1.04 - Jonathan Taylor

1.05 - Travis Ettienne
1.06 - CeeDee Lamb

1.07 - Justin Jefferson
1.08 - Cam Akers
1.09 - Henry Ruggs
1.10 - Tee Higgins
1.11 - Jalen Reagor
1.12 - Laviska Shenault Jr.

Next Tier: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyler Johnson, Najee Harris, K.J. Hamler

I will try and share my thoughts on that 3rd tier of prospects in the next few weeks as I continue to dig into their game films.

[briank]

Who's Deandre Smith?

[nathanq42]

Wonderful write up, similar to what my impressions have been for the most part. Outside of Jeudy, Dobbins, and Swift I would rather trade a top 5/6 pick for a proven player

[kmbryant09]

Who's Deandre Smith?

He's a real sleeper in this class!

Thanks for the catch, fixed!

[MrUbuto]

Great read. Thanks

[LPN]

Well done Sir, appreciated your work, looking forward for future posts/ratings !

[YouMightDieTryin]

Who's Deandre Smith?

He's a real sleeper in this class!

Thanks for the catch, fixed!

Likewise, who's Tony Jefferson? (Justin* perhaps?)

Appreciate the write up. Missing out on some Chuba-wumba Tubthumping, but to each their own.

[kmbryant09]

Who's Deandre Smith?

He's a real sleeper in this class!

Thanks for the catch, fixed!

Likewise, who's Tony Jefferson? (Justin* perhaps?)

Appreciate the write up. Missing out on some Chuba-wumba Tubthumping, but to each their own.

Thanks x2!

As for Hubbard, I heard he's likely returning to school so I haven't spent a lot of time on him yet.

[DJB]

Bryant you and are exactly on the same page with the top guys. I love Jeudy and Dobbins and our comparisons for these guys are eerily similar lol

[Friction]

Jefferson sure shot up the board, moreso after the big performance against the Sooners. He seems like he won't make it past the late 1st/Early 2nd in the NFL draft now. Impressive, with the WR talent coming out and him being a virtual no-name to most prior to about midseason.

[Chwf3rd]

I had the exact same thoughts on Swift - glad to finally hear someone else acknowledge it.

When I watched his 2018 film last summer I was blown away and he looked like an elite 1.01 pick - below Barkley but on par with the 1.01 any other year. The Kentucky and Auburn games were especially incredible.

I watched his cut ups from this year and he doesn’t look nearly as dynamic. The same type of jaw dropping runs that I saw in 2018 just weren’t there.

Right now I’m just trusting the 2018 film. Maybe he was dealing with an injury or trying to preserve himself for the draft?

[skinfanjon]

Great post. Curious your thoughts on the next group of WRs? Specifically Higgins, Raegor, and Shenault. I'm starting to see some Treadwell in Higgins game, at least as a low end comp. Any thoughts?

[Cameron Giles]

Great thoughts on Jeudy. He's a special, special WR and can do everything. Even with so many talented RB's available, I just don't see how you pass on him. He has a chance to be a perennial WR1.

[kmbryant09]

Great post. Curious your thoughts on the next group of WRs? Specifically Higgins, Raegor, and Shenault. I'm starting to see some Treadwell in Higgins game, at least as a low end comp. Any thoughts?

I haven't watched enough film on that 2nd+ tier of guys to have a definitive opinion on them. I try to reserve judgment until I've seen enough tape, but here are my initial thoughts:

Love Justin Jefferson and Jalen Reagor.

Don't love Shenault.

Higgins is a tough evaluation for me, still up in the air.

Will definitely come back here and post more thoughts later in the off-season, hopefully in the next few weeks.

[Lord_Varys]

Excellent work.