Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
kmbryant09
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3270
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:26 am

Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby kmbryant09 » Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:34 am

I somehow thought the National Championship game between Clemson & LSU was last night, not realizing that it was next Monday night. So I took some time to watch some film on the top 2020 RB & WR prospects, figured I would share some of my thoughts. For the record, I try to break-down whatever play-by-play film is available, rather than relying on highlight reels.

I know there's a lengthy thread on the 2020 draft class in general, but thought this thread could lead to some in-depth discussion breaking down some of the most popular prospects (and some under-the-radar guys as well).

D'Andre Swift - When I watch his 2019 tape, I don't see a true game-breaker that I expected to see. I see a well-rounded player who is clearly a natural football player, but one that lacks elite explosiveness. His 2019 game tape reminds me of Duke Johnson.

But when I watch his 2018 tape, I see the player that everyone is drooling over. He looked much more explosive, and more decisive as a runner. I'm not sure if he's playing through injuries this year, or if his playing weight has increased, but I see 2 different players from the past 2 years. Among the top RB's, he's not the fastest (Etienne), biggest (Taylor / Dobbins), or most natural runner (Taylor / Dobbines), be he's probably the best pass-catcher. He's a player that will likely be the most fluid throughout the pre-draft process for me. If he performs well at the combine and goes relatively high in the NFL draft, I will be forced to trust his 2018 game tape and keep him in the conversation for 1.01 overall pick. For now, he's likely my 1.03 pick.

2018 Player Comparison: LeSean McCoy
2019 Player Comparison: Duke Johnson

Jerry Jeudy - I don't watch much college football until it's time to grind some tape, but even I couldn't avoid hearing so many positive things about Jeudy in college. Which is why it was surprising to hear some question his ability and place as the top prospect in this draft. When I watch tape, it's even more confusing to hear some criticisms because I see a true difference maker who's game should translate to the NFL. He can play both inside and out, and relies on phenomenal route running thanks in large part to an elite ability to change direction. While undersized against press coverage, he uses his quickness and leverage to win off the line, and is a natural hands catcher away from his body. He will likely be my undisputed 1.01 pick.

I'm curious to see his measurables at the combine because he has such a slight frame. My biggest concern is that his small frame will lead to lower body injuries throughout his career. It would be huge if he can weigh in close to 200 pounds.

Player Comparison: Odell Beckham, Jr.

J.K. Dobbins - One of my favorite players in this class even before his recent rise over the 2nd half of the season (and his performance in the bowl game). He's not the sexiest RB, but I think he's the most well-rounded back in this class. He holds up well in pass protection, is a natural pass-catcher, and utilizes vision, lateral agility, and physicality as a runner. There's really nothing he can't do for an NFL team, and I believe whichever team drafts him will do so with the full intent of using him as a 3-down RB. I cannot say the same about Jonathan Taylor & Travis Etienne. While many scouts think Taylor is the best pure runner in this class, I think Dobbins can give him a run for his money in the NFL. And Dobbins' 3-down skill-set (and Taylor's fumbling & workload concerns) give him the edge in my rankings.

Player Comparison: Matt Forte (thought Zeke was too easy of a comparison, but they are/were very similar prospects to me)

Travis Etienne - His strengths are obvious: speed, speed, and more speed. He's an explosive player who thrives in space, yet shows a willingness and toughness between the tackles. While his tackle-breaking ability has been debated, one obvious weakness of his is vision & patience. I don't think he's a natural between-the-tackles runner like Taylor or Dobbins, but I'd argue that he can take more advantage of clear rushing lanes because of his acceleration and top-end speed. While he's an above-average pass-catcher, I think he struggles as a pass protector and I haven't seen him run a lot of routes besides screens & check-downs.

I think Etienne's NFL projections are going to be very sensitive to the offense & scheme that he lands in. Imagine him in KC with Andy Reid scheming him into space and on his patented screen passes? He'd be in the conversation for the 1.01 pick in dynasty drafts. But if he goes to an uglier spot like NYJ or MIA, I think he might struggle a bit unless those offenses drastically improve.

Player Comparison: Chris Johnson / C.J. Spiller

CeeDee Lamb - He's a tough player for me to evaluate, sort of like the D'Andre Swift at the WR position. He's not the fastest WR in this draft (Reagor / Ruggs), he's not the biggest (Shenault / Higgins), and he's not the best route-runner (Jeudy / Jefferson). But he might be the best all-around WR, and the biggest compliment I can give him, as simple as it sounds, is that he's such a natural Wide Receiver. Some WR's coming out of college are more running back or play-maker disguised as a receiver, but Lamb was born to play this position.

I worry that he's not explosive enough and that his size is more of a negative than positive - after all he's listed at just 190 pounds despite a 6'2" frame. His "lack" of size didn't hurt him in college, but playing in the Big12 didn't really expose him to elite boundary corners and he wasn't asked to beat press-coverage as much as other receivers in this class. If he's not able to put on 5 - 10 pounds of muscle mass in the NFL, I could see him struggling against physical corners at the next level. If he can, he should have no problem being a productive all-around WR for the next decade as someone who relies more on route running, ball tracking, and contested catches rather than athleticism and speed.

Player Comparison: Davante Adams

Jonathan Taylor - For a big and physical RB, I came away very impressed by Taylor's break-away speed. Behind Wisconsin's massive O-Line, Taylor deserves his fair share of credit for creating yards between-the-tackles, but I was most impressed by his ability to turn a bunch of 10 - 15 yard gains into 40+ yard touchdown runs. Highly regarded as the best pure runner in this class, Taylor also showed improvement as a pass-catcher this season. I highly doubt he'll ever be a plus pass-catcher in the NFL, I don't think he possesses the elite change-of-direction ability and natural hands that most satellite backs have in the NFL, but he should be able to supplement heavy rushing volume with just enough pass-catching work on screens and basic check-downs.

While some studies show that age, not touches, lead to Running Back decline in the NFL, there are some workload concerns for Taylor coming out of college. We're seeing RB's declining at an earlier and earlier age, most notably seeing RB's like Gurley, Bell, D. Johnson, Zeke (in my opinion), Gordon, Freeman, etc. losing explosiveness all before the age of 27. It's certainly not a death sentence, but I'd prefer my Rookie RB to have fewer miles on his tires than what Taylor has.

Player Comparison: Leonard Fournette

This is all a very fluid situation, and the combine & NFL draft will provide additional data points for our analysis. But right now, here's a tentative look at my Big Board:

1.01 - Jerry Jeudy

1.02 - J.K. Dobbins
1.03 - D'Andre Swift
1.04 - Jonathan Taylor

1.05 - Travis Ettienne
1.06 - CeeDee Lamb

1.07 - Justin Jefferson
1.08 - Cam Akers
1.09 - Henry Ruggs
1.10 - Tee Higgins
1.11 - Jalen Reagor
1.12 - Laviska Shenault Jr.

Next Tier: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyler Johnson, Najee Harris, K.J. Hamler

I will try and share my thoughts on that 3rd tier of prospects in the next few weeks as I continue to dig into their game films.
Last edited by kmbryant09 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: K. Murray, B. Mayfield, K. Cousins, D. Lock
RB: M. Mack, P. Lindsay, D. Johnson, C. Edmonds, T. Pollard, B. Scott, G. Bernard, D. Thompson
WR: C. Godwin, O. Beckham Jr., K. Allen, A. Robinson, C. Kirk, Di. Johnson, Z. Pascal, J. Kumerow
TE: E. Engram, D. Waller, I. Smith Jr., J. Hollister

2020 Picks: 1.04 / 1.05 / 3.07 / 3.08 / 4.06
2021 Picks: (2x) 1, 3, 4

briank
Captain
Captain
Posts: 886
Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2017 1:01 pm

Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby briank » Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:39 am

Who's Deandre Smith?
2019 Champion 12 team PPR 1-2QB 2-5RB 2-5WR 1-4TE start 9
QB: Mayfield, Winston, Newton, Keenum, Stidham
RB: Mixon, A. Jones, Miller, Jamaal Williams, Edwards, Bernard, Gallman, Pollard, AP
WR: Hopkins, Thomas, DJ Moore, Jeffery, Preston Williams, Ginn, Perriman
TE: Ertz, Cook, Gesicki, Hurst
20 Picks: 5.12

24 team 2 copy PPR TE 1.5 PPFD 1-2QB 1-7RB 1-7WR 1-7TE start 10
QB: Mahomes, Watson, Tannehill, Fitzpatrick, Flacco
RB: Mixon, Carson, Murray, Jamaal Williams, Mattison, Hines, Barber, Washington, Harris
WR: Evans, Woods, Cooks, Fuller, Miller, Diontae Johnson, Ross, Reynolds, Ginn, Gage
TE: Andrews, Brate
20 Picks: 4.21 , 5.21

24 team 2 copy PPR TE 1.5 PPFD 1-2QB 1-7RB 1-7WR 1-7TE start 10
QB: Mahomes, Murray, Trubisky, Grier, Bortles, Hill
RB: Jacobs, Bernard, Lewis, Washington, Hill
WR: Diggs, Cooks, Moore, AJ Brown, Marquis Brown, Davis, Harmon, Reynolds, Boykin, Meyers
TE: Engram, Njoku, Irv Smith, Everett, Hurst
20 Picks: 1.06, 1.10,1.18, 2.02, 2.09, 4.02, 5.02

nathanq42
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2750
Joined: Sun Oct 12, 2014 7:40 am

Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby nathanq42 » Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:43 am

Wonderful write up, similar to what my impressions have been for the most part. Outside of Jeudy, Dobbins, and Swift I would rather trade a top 5/6 pick for a proven player
12 Team 20 man roster 4 reserve slots 1 ppr .2 points per carry
Garbage
1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1WR/RB/TE 1K 1DEF
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew
RB Rashaad Penny, Austin Ekeler, Royce Freeman, Jerrick McKinnon, Justice Hill
WR Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Junior, DJ Moore, Dede Westbrook, Parris Campbell, Preston Williams, Zach Parscal, James Washington, Hakeem Butler
TE TJ Hockenson, Darren Waller, Jacob Hollister

Picks
1.01, 1.04, 1.05, 1.07, 1.09
2 2021 firsts (both mid to late)

kmbryant09
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3270
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:26 am

Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby kmbryant09 » Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:05 am

briank wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:39 am
Who's Deandre Smith?
He's a real sleeper in this class!

Thanks for the catch, fixed!
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: K. Murray, B. Mayfield, K. Cousins, D. Lock
RB: M. Mack, P. Lindsay, D. Johnson, C. Edmonds, T. Pollard, B. Scott, G. Bernard, D. Thompson
WR: C. Godwin, O. Beckham Jr., K. Allen, A. Robinson, C. Kirk, Di. Johnson, Z. Pascal, J. Kumerow
TE: E. Engram, D. Waller, I. Smith Jr., J. Hollister

2020 Picks: 1.04 / 1.05 / 3.07 / 3.08 / 4.06
2021 Picks: (2x) 1, 3, 4

User avatar
MrUbuto
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3458
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 10:59 pm
Location: Vancouver, B.C.

Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:17 am

Great read. Thanks
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)Haskins(WAS)

1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

LPN
Combine Attendee
Combine Attendee
Posts: 20
Joined: Wed Dec 20, 2017 7:34 am

Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby LPN » Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:07 pm

Well done Sir, appreciated your work, looking forward for future posts/ratings !

User avatar
YouMightDieTryin
Rookie
Rookie
Posts: 99
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:09 pm

Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:19 pm

kmbryant09 wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:05 am
briank wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:39 am
Who's Deandre Smith?
He's a real sleeper in this class!

Thanks for the catch, fixed!
Likewise, who's Tony Jefferson? (Justin* perhaps?)

Appreciate the write up. Missing out on some Chuba-wumba Tubthumping, but to each their own.
10-Team Dynasty League QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FLEX (23 man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi, non-PPR scoring)
QB: Brady, Mayfield, Cousins, (Luck)
RB: Saquon, Ezekiel Elliott, K. Drake, K.Hunt,Jamaal Williams, A.Peterson, Malcolm Brown, Justin Jackson,
WR: OBJ, B.Cooks, D.Parker, A.Humphries, C. Conley, D. Hamilton, T. Patrick,
TE: H.Henry, C.Herndon
Taxi: I Smith Jr, R. Anderson
2020: 1st, (3) 2nds, 3rd, 4th
2021: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
:dance:

kmbryant09
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3270
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:26 am

Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby kmbryant09 » Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:35 pm

YouMightDieTryin wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:19 pm
kmbryant09 wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:05 am
briank wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:39 am
Who's Deandre Smith?
He's a real sleeper in this class!

Thanks for the catch, fixed!
Likewise, who's Tony Jefferson? (Justin* perhaps?)

Appreciate the write up. Missing out on some Chuba-wumba Tubthumping, but to each their own.
Thanks x2!

As for Hubbard, I heard he's likely returning to school so I haven't spent a lot of time on him yet.
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: K. Murray, B. Mayfield, K. Cousins, D. Lock
RB: M. Mack, P. Lindsay, D. Johnson, C. Edmonds, T. Pollard, B. Scott, G. Bernard, D. Thompson
WR: C. Godwin, O. Beckham Jr., K. Allen, A. Robinson, C. Kirk, Di. Johnson, Z. Pascal, J. Kumerow
TE: E. Engram, D. Waller, I. Smith Jr., J. Hollister

2020 Picks: 1.04 / 1.05 / 3.07 / 3.08 / 4.06
2021 Picks: (2x) 1, 3, 4

User avatar
DJB
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3426
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2012 7:06 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby DJB » Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:52 pm

Bryant you and are exactly on the same page with the top guys. I love Jeudy and Dobbins and our comparisons for these guys are eerily similar lol

User avatar
Friction
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3145
Joined: Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:29 pm
Location: Land of 10,000 Safe Spaces

Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Friction » Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:55 pm

Jefferson sure shot up the board, moreso after the big performance against the Sooners. He seems like he won't make it past the late 1st/Early 2nd in the NFL draft now. Impressive, with the WR talent coming out and him being a virtual no-name to most prior to about midseason.
Undecided Offensive Name for 2019
12 Team 1PPR 1QB/1-3RB/1-3 WR/1TE/1DST
QB:Brady, Cousins
RB: Barkley, Chubb, Jacobs, Henry, Mack, Love
WR: Nuk, Thielen, Cooks, Parris, Gallup
TE: Henry, Olsen, Herndon

Chwf3rd
Starter
Starter
Posts: 577
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 4:44 pm

Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Chwf3rd » Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:32 pm

I had the exact same thoughts on Swift - glad to finally hear someone else acknowledge it.

When I watched his 2018 film last summer I was blown away and he looked like an elite 1.01 pick - below Barkley but on par with the 1.01 any other year. The Kentucky and Auburn games were especially incredible.

I watched his cut ups from this year and he doesn’t look nearly as dynamic. The same type of jaw dropping runs that I saw in 2018 just weren’t there.

Right now I’m just trusting the 2018 film. Maybe he was dealing with an injury or trying to preserve himself for the draft?
Team 1 - 12 team PPR
QB: MRyan, PRivers
RB: AKamara, JMixon, DHenderson, LMcCoy, RArmstead, TPollard
WR: ACooper, SDiggs, CSamuel, AJGreen, SWatkins, AMiller, DiJohnson, ZPascal
TE: MAndrews, ISmith, KWarring
Record: 4-6
Picks: 1, 1, 1

Team 2 - 12 team, PPR, superflex
QB: MStafford, SDarnold, DJones, BRoethlisberger, ALuck
RB: DCook, PLindsay, TColeman, DSingletary, JWhite, DFreeman, CHyde, MWalton, RMostert, MGaskin, QOllison
WR: DAdams, MEvans, SDiggs, DSamuel, SWatkins, MHardman, GAllison
TE: JDoyle, TBurton, DKnox, DFells, KWarring
Record: 6-4
Picks: 1, 2, 2

Team 3 - 12 team, PPR, 2QB, 2TE
QB: DWatson, CWentz, MStafford, DJones, ALuck
RB: NChubb, DMontgomery, SMichel, KDrake, CHyde, TJohnson, MWalton, KBallage, CThompson, JDMcKissic, QOllison
WR: THill, DAdams, SDiggs, DSamuel, PCampbell, DiJohnson, JCrowder, JWashington, ALazard, ATate
TE: GKittle, HHenry, TJHock, KWarring
Record: 8-2
Picks: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2

skinfanjon
Combine Attendee
Combine Attendee
Posts: 40
Joined: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:52 am

Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby skinfanjon » Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:38 pm

Great post. Curious your thoughts on the next group of WRs? Specifically Higgins, Raegor, and Shenault. I'm starting to see some Treadwell in Higgins game, at least as a low end comp. Any thoughts?

Cameron Giles
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 8966
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm

Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:18 pm

Great thoughts on Jeudy. He's a special, special WR and can do everything. Even with so many talented RB's available, I just don't see how you pass on him. He has a chance to be a perennial WR1.

kmbryant09
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3270
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:26 am

Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby kmbryant09 » Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:33 pm

skinfanjon wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:38 pm
Great post. Curious your thoughts on the next group of WRs? Specifically Higgins, Raegor, and Shenault. I'm starting to see some Treadwell in Higgins game, at least as a low end comp. Any thoughts?
I haven't watched enough film on that 2nd+ tier of guys to have a definitive opinion on them. I try to reserve judgment until I've seen enough tape, but here are my initial thoughts:

Love Justin Jefferson and Jalen Reagor.

Don't love Shenault.

Higgins is a tough evaluation for me, still up in the air.

Will definitely come back here and post more thoughts later in the off-season, hopefully in the next few weeks.
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: K. Murray, B. Mayfield, K. Cousins, D. Lock
RB: M. Mack, P. Lindsay, D. Johnson, C. Edmonds, T. Pollard, B. Scott, G. Bernard, D. Thompson
WR: C. Godwin, O. Beckham Jr., K. Allen, A. Robinson, C. Kirk, Di. Johnson, Z. Pascal, J. Kumerow
TE: E. Engram, D. Waller, I. Smith Jr., J. Hollister

2020 Picks: 1.04 / 1.05 / 3.07 / 3.08 / 4.06
2021 Picks: (2x) 1, 3, 4

Lord_Varys
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 352
Joined: Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:19 am

Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Lord_Varys » Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:54 pm

Excellent work.


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: alewilliam789, AussieMate, bjd5211, Farley, FiremanEd, Google Adsense [Bot], gunfrees, Packerland, Ray Finkle and 21 guests