2020 BAD Trade Offers

[TheNuts]

I give: Tyreek Hill and Saquon Barkley

I get: Late 2020 first and 2nd and late 2021 first and 2nd

This is also a salary cap league where both Hill and Barkley are cost controlled for the next 2 seasons for less than 10% of our cap combined.

Wow. Not as bad as the Mattison offer but Holy shiz is that awful

[Prison_Mike]

I give: Tyreek Hill and Saquon Barkley

I get: Late 2020 first and 2nd and late 2021 first and 2nd

This is also a salary cap league where both Hill and Barkley are cost controlled for the next 2 seasons for less than 10% of our cap combined.

Meh.

Late 2020 1st & 2nd is about right for Saquon, but I'd want a little more if you're giving up Hill as well.
Maybe try to get a 3rd added on top?





/s

[stoneghost28]

Another from the ------- or idiot or ignorant file:

Today a pair of offers that were almost too good to refuse:

First:

Rivers and a '21 3rd for Jonathan Taylor and a '21 5th

Then he thought better of it, and sent me an offer where he wasn't giving too much away:

Rivers and a '21 3rd for Jonathan Taylor and my '21 1st

I wanna hear his logic

Honestly, I just think the guy doesn't understand the game, like, at all. His posts in the chat forum showcase a level of ignorance that suggests he's either incredibly ill informed and sensitive, or a remarkably talented performance artist, or someone who premises trades on the idea that eventually someone will accidentally click accept rather than reject because essentially all of his offers are that insane. I have repeatedly told him that our league has a protest function, and even if I suffered a head injury severe enough to result in me clicking "accept" that the league would protest the trade and overturn it in less than .03 seconds but it has zero effect on his approach. I get these insane mercifully on a bi-weekly basis now rather than weekly.

[stoneghost28]

Another from the ------- or idiot or ignorant file:

Today a pair of offers that were almost too good to refuse:

First:

Rivers and a '21 3rd for Jonathan Taylor and a '21 5th

Then he thought better of it, and sent me an offer where he wasn't giving too much away:

Rivers and a '21 3rd for Jonathan Taylor and my '21 1st

lmao god i really hope its at least SF.

This might be one of the worst offers i've seen. a 40 year old QB with like a year left (2 at most) and a 3rd for an early '20 first and a first next year

1QB, not superflex.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Another from the ------- or idiot or ignorant file:

Today a pair of offers that were almost too good to refuse:

First:

Rivers and a '21 3rd for Jonathan Taylor and a '21 5th

Then he thought better of it, and sent me an offer where he wasn't giving too much away:

Rivers and a '21 3rd for Jonathan Taylor and my '21 1st

I wanna hear his logic

Honestly, I just think the guy doesn't understand the game, like, at all. His posts in the chat forum showcase a level of ignorance that suggests he's either incredibly ill informed and sensitive, or a remarkably talented performance artist, or someone who premises trades on the idea that eventually someone will accidentally click accept rather than reject because essentially all of his offers are that insane. I have repeatedly told him that our league has a protest function, and even if I suffered a head injury severe enough to result in me clicking "accept" that the league would protest the trade and overturn it in less than .03 seconds but it has zero effect on his approach. I get these insane mercifully on a bi-weekly basis now rather than weekly.

Does he ever get trades done? In one league that I'm in, for years one guy would consistently send out horribly lopsided offers. The problem was that somebody would accept one like once or twice a year, and that's all it takes. This went on for like 4-5 years before finally people wised up. Today, if you ask about one of his guys he'll still demand an unreasonable price (which is his prerogative!) but he doesn't send out horrible three nickels for a dollar type offers, and I've made a few trades with him as of late.

[stoneghost28]

Nope, that's an awful offer.

In 1QB/PPR, Harry is currently going 84th overall in Mizelle's startup ADP Data, while Herbert is ranked 23rd (2.11) in his post draft data for rookies and Hamler is 22nd. Neither of them even rank in the top 13 rounds of ADP, meanwhile Harry is going in round 7.

For reference the picks at 2.11 in my 4 recent similar leagues were: Darrynton Evans, Justin Herbert, Anthony McFarland and Jarrett Stidham.

So while I get there are those who aren't fans of Harry, and his value has fallen from a year ago, he's still worth far more than 2.11.

Hes definitely worth more than 2.11 but that doesnt really belong in here as an offer. IMO Harry is worth about an early 2, that offer is workable up to that kinda range

Just because an early 2nd and a late 2nd are pretty close mathematically, doesn’t mean they are close in value. This is a strong draft, but there is still a massive difference in value between picks 13-15 and picks 22-24 this year.

I don't disagree, Harry is basically worth a turn pick and it's pretty iron clad. There's two separate problems here: No 1. You get the right person, you can steal Harry for peanuts because of how incensed people were for his performance last year, the difference in points and tiering here is legit to me. #2 is the tiering issue, I definitely view the rookie draft as having a tier from essentially 1.10-2.07 or thereabouts before another dip but it's interesting to see what the startup data tells us in terms of data because if you look at it, it certainly is suggestive of clear tiers:

DLF Startup Data
Tier 1:
CEH: 2.01
J. Taylor: 2.03

Tier 2:
Dobbins: 2.12

Tier 3:
Akers: 3.06
Swift: 3.09

Tier 4:
Lamb: 4.08
Jeudy: 4.12

Tier 5:
Jefferson: 5.11
Reagor: 6.01

Tier 6:
Ruggs: 7.07
Vaughn: 7.08
Pittman: 7.10
Higgins: 7.11

Mims: 8.06 Between Tiers

Tier 7:
Shenault: 9.03
Aiyuk: 9.05

Tier 8:
Edwards: 10.01
Burrow: 10.02
Moss: 10.05
Dillon: 10.08
Tua: 10.10
Gibson: 11.02


After Gibson, 12 picks go by before another rookie is selected (McFarland).

I was gonna post the MFL ADP Data but there's just too much noise in the information with super flex stuff jammed in there and what not. This is the cleanest data I can find. It's wrong or seemingly wrong about some guys (Gibson seems to ALWAYS be going very early round 2 in literally every draft I've been in, but other than that, it seems pretty clear that these are the sub-tiers, if you want to simplify it feel free, but right now this is where the rookies go in startups.

The key thing to me is the fact that the offer is bad in terms of value, no matter how you look at tiers, there is either 1 or 2 significant tier drops that take place in dealing Harry for a 1st/2nd turn pick, versus a late 2nd, and far more importantly (especially in 1 QB leagues) there is a MASSIVE tier drop in terms of valuations of WR's between the 1/2 turn, and the next WR taken at 2.11 or later, it's basically the difference between a late seventh early 8th rounder in a startup (Higgins/Mims) versus a 13th rounder (Hamler and Claypool) because in rookie drafts, after Edwards at between 2.07-2.09, Hamler/Claypool go 2.10-3.04ish but in startup drafts go a full 40-50 picks later than Edwards.

That's, to me, why it is a bad trade, it's not worthy of the thread, because at the end of the day all of us receive plenty of offers that are just clearly favoring one side, but this thread always struck me as a Hall of Fame Wall of Plaques for the worst trade offers imaginable, like the lunatic who keeps trying to pry Jonathan Taylor or CEH or Juju off of me for Rivers and a couple of late round rookie picks next year. Granted he's clinically insane, so an outlier, but still, what you have is a bad offer, but not a gut busting, "Is this guy an ------- or idiot" level offer. He's just trying to win the deal, period, and those are everyday typical offers.

[TheNuts]

Hes definitely worth more than 2.11 but that doesnt really belong in here as an offer. IMO Harry is worth about an early 2, that offer is workable up to that kinda range

Just because an early 2nd and a late 2nd are pretty close mathematically, doesn’t mean they are close in value. This is a strong draft, but there is still a massive difference in value between picks 13-15 and picks 22-24 this year.

I don't disagree, Harry is basically worth a turn pick and it's pretty iron clad. There's two separate problems here: No 1. You get the right person, you can steal Harry for peanuts because of how incensed people were for his performance last year, the difference in points and tiering here is legit to me. #2 is the tiering issue, I definitely view the rookie draft as having a tier from essentially 1.10-2.07 or thereabouts before another dip but it's interesting to see what the startup data tells us in terms of data because if you look at it, it certainly is suggestive of clear tiers:

DLF Startup Data
Tier 1:
CEH: 2.01
J. Taylor: 2.03

Tier 2:
Dobbins: 2.12

Tier 3:
Akers: 3.06
Swift: 3.09

Tier 4:
Lamb: 4.08
Jeudy: 4.12

Tier 5:
Jefferson: 5.11
Reagor: 6.01

Tier 6:
Ruggs: 7.07
Vaughn: 7.08
Pittman: 7.10
Higgins: 7.11

Mims: 8.06 Between Tiers

Tier 7:
Shenault: 9.03
Aiyuk: 9.05

Tier 8:
Edwards: 10.01
Burrow: 10.02
Moss: 10.05
Dillon: 10.08
Tua: 10.10
Gibson: 11.02


After Gibson, 12 picks go by before another rookie is selected (McFarland).

I was gonna post the MFL ADP Data but there's just too much noise in the information with super flex stuff jammed in there and what not. This is the cleanest data I can find. It's wrong or seemingly wrong about some guys (Gibson seems to ALWAYS be going very early round 2 in literally every draft I've been in, but other than that, it seems pretty clear that these are the sub-tiers, if you want to simplify it feel free, but right now this is where the rookies go in startups.

The key thing to me is the fact that the offer is bad in terms of value, no matter how you look at tiers, there is either 1 or 2 significant tier drops that take place in dealing Harry for a 1st/2nd turn pick, versus a late 2nd, and far more importantly (especially in 1 QB leagues) there is a MASSIVE tier drop in terms of valuations of WR's between the 1/2 turn, and the next WR taken at 2.11 or later, it's basically the difference between a late seventh early 8th rounder in a startup (Higgins/Mims) versus a 13th rounder (Hamler and Claypool) because in rookie drafts, after Edwards at between 2.07-2.09, Hamler/Claypool go 2.10-3.04ish but in startup drafts go a full 40-50 picks later than Edwards.

That's, to me, why it is a bad trade, it's not worthy of the thread, because at the end of the day all of us receive plenty of offers that are just clearly favoring one side, but this thread always struck me as a Hall of Fame Wall of Plaques for the worst trade offers imaginable, like the lunatic who keeps trying to pry Jonathan Taylor or CEH or Juju off of me for Rivers and a couple of late round rookie picks next year. Granted he's clinically insane, so an outlier, but still, what you have is a bad offer, but not a gut busting, "Is this guy an ------- or idiot" level offer. He's just trying to win the deal, period, and those are everyday typical offers.

You did a great job at showing how the Harry offer wasnt that bad, and yet people are still going to be feelings hurt by the offer

[OhCruelestRanter]

Just because an early 2nd and a late 2nd are pretty close mathematically, doesn’t mean they are close in value. This is a strong draft, but there is still a massive difference in value between picks 13-15 and picks 22-24 this year.

I don't disagree, Harry is basically worth a turn pick and it's pretty iron clad. There's two separate problems here: No 1. You get the right person, you can steal Harry for peanuts because of how incensed people were for his performance last year, the difference in points and tiering here is legit to me. #2 is the tiering issue, I definitely view the rookie draft as having a tier from essentially 1.10-2.07 or thereabouts before another dip but it's interesting to see what the startup data tells us in terms of data because if you look at it, it certainly is suggestive of clear tiers:

DLF Startup Data
Tier 1:
CEH: 2.01
J. Taylor: 2.03

Tier 2:
Dobbins: 2.12

Tier 3:
Akers: 3.06
Swift: 3.09

Tier 4:
Lamb: 4.08
Jeudy: 4.12

Tier 5:
Jefferson: 5.11
Reagor: 6.01

Tier 6:
Ruggs: 7.07
Vaughn: 7.08
Pittman: 7.10
Higgins: 7.11

Mims: 8.06 Between Tiers

Tier 7:
Shenault: 9.03
Aiyuk: 9.05

Tier 8:
Edwards: 10.01
Burrow: 10.02
Moss: 10.05
Dillon: 10.08
Tua: 10.10
Gibson: 11.02


After Gibson, 12 picks go by before another rookie is selected (McFarland).

I was gonna post the MFL ADP Data but there's just too much noise in the information with super flex stuff jammed in there and what not. This is the cleanest data I can find. It's wrong or seemingly wrong about some guys (Gibson seems to ALWAYS be going very early round 2 in literally every draft I've been in, but other than that, it seems pretty clear that these are the sub-tiers, if you want to simplify it feel free, but right now this is where the rookies go in startups.

The key thing to me is the fact that the offer is bad in terms of value, no matter how you look at tiers, there is either 1 or 2 significant tier drops that take place in dealing Harry for a 1st/2nd turn pick, versus a late 2nd, and far more importantly (especially in 1 QB leagues) there is a MASSIVE tier drop in terms of valuations of WR's between the 1/2 turn, and the next WR taken at 2.11 or later, it's basically the difference between a late seventh early 8th rounder in a startup (Higgins/Mims) versus a 13th rounder (Hamler and Claypool) because in rookie drafts, after Edwards at between 2.07-2.09, Hamler/Claypool go 2.10-3.04ish but in startup drafts go a full 40-50 picks later than Edwards.

That's, to me, why it is a bad trade, it's not worthy of the thread, because at the end of the day all of us receive plenty of offers that are just clearly favoring one side, but this thread always struck me as a Hall of Fame Wall of Plaques for the worst trade offers imaginable, like the lunatic who keeps trying to pry Jonathan Taylor or CEH or Juju off of me for Rivers and a couple of late round rookie picks next year. Granted he's clinically insane, so an outlier, but still, what you have is a bad offer, but not a gut busting, "Is this guy an ------- or idiot" level offer. He's just trying to win the deal, period, and those are everyday typical offers.

You did a great job at showing how the Harry offer wasnt that bad, and yet people are still going to be feelings hurt by the offer

Read his post again- he makes it pretty clear that it is clearly a bad offer, but not as "clinically insane" as some of the other offers in this thread. It's almost exactly what I said in my original response, which you then took exception to:

Harry for 2.11 is a bad offer.

I think the dissent comes from the idea that the majority of the offers most of us receive are "bad offers" and some of the ones in this thread are trades that you can't imagine anybody taking.

Just because there are offers in here are frequently of the "You give me the best player in the trade, a second this year, and your 2021 first and third, and I'll give you this vet that nobody wants and a slightly earlier second" variety doesn't make Harry for 2.11 a good offer.

No, it's not that bad, evidenced by multiple people saying it's not that bad. He is a complete unknown. I just got Claypool in the third round of a 14 team rookie draft. If someone really likes him, then yeah they want something better, but seeing how much value people put on rookie picks this year, it would not be surprising if someone took that deal at all.

Might as well offer straight 100% side for side value at the start of a draft, or even better yet, offer a trade where the other person is already winning the deal.

It's a one for one offer where one piece is going nearly 50 spots earlier than the other in startups. Maybe it's not quite as bad as the other offers in this thread, something I conceded in my initial response, but that doesn't make a one for one trade almost exactly 4 rounds apart a good offer. The only people who seem to "be feelings hurt," whatever that means, are the ones who send bad trade offers like this and insist that they're not that bad, or call them "starting offers".

This is a bad trade offer. It's not as bad as other offers in this thread. Sending lopsided offers is not some horrible moral failing that you need to be ashamed of. Let's move the bleep on.

[stoneghost28]

I wanna hear his logic

Honestly, I just think the guy doesn't understand the game, like, at all. His posts in the chat forum showcase a level of ignorance that suggests he's either incredibly ill informed and sensitive, or a remarkably talented performance artist, or someone who premises trades on the idea that eventually someone will accidentally click accept rather than reject because essentially all of his offers are that insane. I have repeatedly told him that our league has a protest function, and even if I suffered a head injury severe enough to result in me clicking "accept" that the league would protest the trade and overturn it in less than .03 seconds but it has zero effect on his approach. I get these insane mercifully on a bi-weekly basis now rather than weekly.

Does he ever get trades done? In one league that I'm in, for years one guy would consistently send out horribly lopsided offers. The problem was that somebody would accept one like once or twice a year, and that's all it takes. This went on for like 4-5 years before finally people wised up. Today, if you ask about one of his guys he'll still demand an unreasonable price (which is his prerogative!) but he doesn't send out horrible three nickels for a dollar type offers, and I've made a few trades with him as of late.

Yes, he's made a handful of trades, but my guess is all of them were initiated by others. His offers are consistently insane and of this sort, I have more than a dozen in my transaction list that are as bad or worse than the one I posted including one DLF had at like 1200 points to 140 or something like that. The posts he makes in the league chat suggest he really had a hard time with English and grammar, or just can't type to save his life or both.

[stoneghost28]

Ohcruelestranter,

I'm just sharing my thoughts on it, not taking issue with you or sharply disagreeing or anything, probably shouldn't have directly quoted you (did I?, I'm headed out the door so can't check), but regardless, my basic level opinion on the whole thing regarding that particular trade is that while it fit the theme of the thread (bad trade offers), it didn't really fit the underlining point of the thread, which is to post trade offers that basically leave one bursting out laughing, rather than just auto-clicking "reject" and then I kind of rambled on about tiers which I found interesting and kind of insightful about the topic of value w/regards to the chief concern of the offer.

I wasn't taking issue w/anything as I think there are merits to both sides of the argument really, just posting some thoughts w/regards to why I think it can be interpreted both ways, but that in the end, based on the theme of the thread, only one answer probably makes sense. That's it. No sharp disagreement or finding major fault or anything of that sort. I apologize if that's how I came across.

[bjd5211]

Honestly, I just think the guy doesn't understand the game, like, at all. His posts in the chat forum showcase a level of ignorance that suggests he's either incredibly ill informed and sensitive, or a remarkably talented performance artist, or someone who premises trades on the idea that eventually someone will accidentally click accept rather than reject because essentially all of his offers are that insane. I have repeatedly told him that our league has a protest function, and even if I suffered a head injury severe enough to result in me clicking "accept" that the league would protest the trade and overturn it in less than .03 seconds but it has zero effect on his approach. I get these insane mercifully on a bi-weekly basis now rather than weekly.

Does he ever get trades done? In one league that I'm in, for years one guy would consistently send out horribly lopsided offers. The problem was that somebody would accept one like once or twice a year, and that's all it takes. This went on for like 4-5 years before finally people wised up. Today, if you ask about one of his guys he'll still demand an unreasonable price (which is his prerogative!) but he doesn't send out horrible three nickels for a dollar type offers, and I've made a few trades with him as of late.

Yes, he's made a handful of trades, but my guess is all of them were initiated by others. His offers are consistently insane and of this sort, I have more than a dozen in my transaction list that are as bad or worse than the one I posted including one DLF had at like 1200 points to 140 or something like that. The posts he makes in the league chat suggest he really had a hard time with English and grammar, or just can't type to save his life or both.

I have a sneaky suspicion I might know who this guy is. Sounds very similar to an owner to an owner who used to be in one of my other leagues before bailing because he had completely destroyed his team. He claimed to be in 150+ plus leagues, so I don't want to know how much money he throws away on fantasy football each year.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Ohcruelestranter,

I'm just sharing my thoughts on it, not taking issue with you or sharply disagreeing or anything, probably shouldn't have directly quoted you (did I?, I'm headed out the door so can't check), but regardless, my basic level opinion on the whole thing regarding that particular trade is that while it fit the theme of the thread (bad trade offers), it didn't really fit the underlining point of the thread, which is to post trade offers that basically leave one bursting out laughing, rather than just auto-clicking "reject" and then I kind of rambled on about tiers which I found interesting and kind of insightful about the topic of value w/regards to the chief concern of the offer.

I wasn't taking issue w/anything as I think there are merits to both sides of the argument really, just posting some thoughts w/regards to why I think it can be interpreted both ways, but that in the end, based on the theme of the thread, only one answer probably makes sense. That's it. No sharp disagreement or finding major fault or anything of that sort. I apologize if that's how I came across.

Homie, no worries! Wasn't talking about you at all. Your point was well reasoned and I agreed with you. I was telling the guy to reply to you that he should read your post again. I think the majority of people agree that this trade is both A. Bad, and B. less bad than the crazy offers in this thread. We now have one guy tilting at windmills that Harry for 2.11 isn't even a bad offer.

No need to apologize, seriously.

[stoneghost28]

Thanks! Misinterpreted that.

Got another 3 peppering my inbox in the last hour, think it's a new comer testing people for stupidity or exhibiting their own:

Once in a lifetime opportunity #1:
I give: Saquon

He gives: 1.06, a '21 1st and Cobb

He wins 980-628 according to the DLF Analyzer

Spectacular Option #2
I give:
Nick Chubb and Mike Evans

He gives: a '21 1st and 2nd and Cobb

He wins 1319-351 according to the DLF Analyzer

Delightful Option #3:
I give:
Nick Chubb

He gives:
Trey Burton's corpse
1.06 and 2.06

662-485 for him: Not the worst trade ever and maybe not worthy of this thread but still outright bad.



Only 1 truly horrific offer in the bunch but collectively DLF scored them 2961 for him and 1464 for me. That's a tour de force performance in terms of ----- offers. Nice!

[millworkguy]

Got this a little while back and forgot to post

12 team, contract cap 1 qb league 6pt tds

I get :
Dak (2 yr contract)
6.05 7.05 7.07 7.12

For
Rodgers 1yr -could franchise
Sony Michel 3 yr
Paris Campbell- open
1.08
3.08
4.02
2021 1st

[Mephistopheles]

One of the guys in my oldest told me about this one at our july 4th BBQ draft soiree last night:

He was offered (1QB league):

Give: 3 2021 1sts, all expect to be early to mid, maybe one late.
Get: Matt Ryan, Jared Goff

That's not the worst of it.

The other guy sent no less than seven DM's trying to convince my buddy it was a great offer because it is a 2 QB league. My buddy is the co-founder of the league. I think he knows whether it's a 2 QB league (it's not).

I forgot to mention my buddy has Mahomes and Lamar which makes it even worse.