Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

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Re: Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

Postby kmbryant09 » Sat Dec 21, 2019 9:41 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:54 am
kmbryant09 wrote:
Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:44 am
Anyone else tempted to put Murray in the top5 of these lists and knocking on the Tier 1 door? Afterall, we're projecting these QB's for next year and beyond, not just solely on how they've performed in the past.

He’s currently QB #7 on the season, despite playing as a Rookie behind a terrible O-Line. He doesn’t exactly have a ton of weapons to throw to (Fitzgerald is washed up, Kirk has been solid but not great and injured), but Arizona should look to add targets in the off-season, and they’ll look to develop Butler & Isabella. And Kingsbury is still working out some kinks as a play-caller and a decision-maker – most notably struggling with red-zone conversions and being too conservative kicking field goals.

We’re also witnessing a 2nd year breakout from a mobile, undersized QB in Lamar Jackson, so the concept shouldn’t be too hard to fathom. I’m not suggesting that Murray will be breaking records next year like Lamar has done this year, but what’s preventing him from taking a giant-sized leap from his already solid fantasy production?
Not quite yet. People put Baker as high as QB2 after 1 year, and that was a mistake. I have more faith in Kyler, though. I think he's close, but I'd have him outside of top 5 still. I don't think his rushing will be much higher. TD passes could go up, but I don't see the rushing getting much higher, they aren't looking to use him like Lamar. They still need to get better weapons on the outside, or have guys like Isabella develop, or Butler. I don't think that they are huge difference makers next year, and Fitz will only be another year older if he comes back, if he comes back. FA class at WR isn't looking that good, so Kyler will be looking at the same weapons, unless they draft a WR early.
TD passes will almost definitely go up, here's 3 reasons why:
1. Kingsbury struggled early in the season with play-calling, most notably in the red-zone. They were too conservative and kicked way too many field goals.
2. Their weapons should only improve. I don't think losing Fitzgerald is a big deal at all, and should be MORE than offset by the developments of Kirk, Isabella, & a healthy Butler. They could also add weapons in FA (Green, Sanders, R. Anderson, etc.) or in the draft (it's an absurdly deep class).
3. TD regression should happen naturally. The NFL average for TD % is about 63% / 37% for passing / rushing TDs. Arizona is 4th worst right now with a 53% / 47% split. A slight uptick in natural regression should result in more passing TDs.

I think it's quite likely he flirts with 25 passing TDs next year (on pace for about 20 this year). That alone, without any additional growth in passing yards or rushing production would catapult him inside the top5.

And again, we aren't factoring in any internal growth in Murray the player, that offense in general, and Kingsbury the play-caller. If I was in charge of that offense, I'd be looking long & hard at what Baltimore has done with Lamar Jackson and ask myself, why can't we do the same thing with Murray?
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: K. Murray, B. Mayfield, K. Cousins, D. Lock
RB: M. Mack, P. Lindsay, D. Johnson, C. Edmonds, T. Pollard, B. Scott, G. Bernard, D. Thompson
WR: C. Godwin, O. Beckham Jr., K. Allen, A. Robinson, C. Kirk, Di. Johnson, Z. Pascal, J. Kumerow
TE: E. Engram, D. Waller, I. Smith Jr., J. Hollister

2020 Picks: 1.04 / 1.05 / 3.07 / 3.08 / 4.06
2021 Picks: (2x) 1, 3, 4

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Re: Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

Postby Pullo Vision » Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:31 am

I'd warn against bumping Murray up into the top tier or 2 based on age or projected improvement. Mayfield did the same thing last year, but Juju's the one who comes to mind.
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Re: Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

Postby blemly » Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:01 pm

There are few NFL QBs with as much weekly downside as Winston. This game just shows why he can never be in my T12.
Team 1: 10-team 15-keeper PPR:
QB: Cousins, Winston
RB: Zeke, Singletary, DJ, Hill
WR: Hopkins, KA, AJB, M. Williams
TE: Kittle, Goedert
2020: 1.02, 1.09, 3.09, 4.09

Team 2 (Rebuild): 12-team SF 22-man 0.5PPR, 1.0PP1D:
QB: Rodgers, Wilson, Lock
RB: Cohen, Sanders
WR: OBJ, JuJu, Chark, Samuel, A. Tate, Hardman, Isabella
TE: OJH, Fant, Knox
2020: 2, 2, 2, 3, 4
2021: 1, 2, 2, 2

Team 3 (Rebuild): 12-team SF 28-man 3WR PPR:
QB: Wentz, Cousins, Rosen, Grier
RB: Sanders, Guice, Pollard, Edmonds
WR: OBJ, Sutton, Golladay, Ross, AB, Pettis, Davis
TE: OJH, Herndon, Gesicki
2020: 3, 3, 4, 5
2021: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5

Team 4: 12-team SF 28-man 3WR PPR:
QB: Watson, Garopollo, Haskins
RB: Mixon, Kamara, Jacobs, Hill
WR: Hill, Lockett, Chark, McLaurin, Hardman, Perriman
TE: OJH, Rudolph, Moreau
2020: 1.03, 2.03
2021: 1, 3, 4, 5

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Re: Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:26 pm

kmbryant09 wrote:
Sat Dec 21, 2019 9:41 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:54 am
kmbryant09 wrote:
Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:44 am
Anyone else tempted to put Murray in the top5 of these lists and knocking on the Tier 1 door? Afterall, we're projecting these QB's for next year and beyond, not just solely on how they've performed in the past.

He’s currently QB #7 on the season, despite playing as a Rookie behind a terrible O-Line. He doesn’t exactly have a ton of weapons to throw to (Fitzgerald is washed up, Kirk has been solid but not great and injured), but Arizona should look to add targets in the off-season, and they’ll look to develop Butler & Isabella. And Kingsbury is still working out some kinks as a play-caller and a decision-maker – most notably struggling with red-zone conversions and being too conservative kicking field goals.

We’re also witnessing a 2nd year breakout from a mobile, undersized QB in Lamar Jackson, so the concept shouldn’t be too hard to fathom. I’m not suggesting that Murray will be breaking records next year like Lamar has done this year, but what’s preventing him from taking a giant-sized leap from his already solid fantasy production?
Not quite yet. People put Baker as high as QB2 after 1 year, and that was a mistake. I have more faith in Kyler, though. I think he's close, but I'd have him outside of top 5 still. I don't think his rushing will be much higher. TD passes could go up, but I don't see the rushing getting much higher, they aren't looking to use him like Lamar. They still need to get better weapons on the outside, or have guys like Isabella develop, or Butler. I don't think that they are huge difference makers next year, and Fitz will only be another year older if he comes back, if he comes back. FA class at WR isn't looking that good, so Kyler will be looking at the same weapons, unless they draft a WR early.
TD passes will almost definitely go up, here's 3 reasons why:
1. Kingsbury struggled early in the season with play-calling, most notably in the red-zone. They were too conservative and kicked way too many field goals.
2. Their weapons should only improve. I don't think losing Fitzgerald is a big deal at all, and should be MORE than offset by the developments of Kirk, Isabella, & a healthy Butler. They could also add weapons in FA (Green, Sanders, R. Anderson, etc.) or in the draft (it's an absurdly deep class).
3. TD regression should happen naturally. The NFL average for TD % is about 63% / 37% for passing / rushing TDs. Arizona is 4th worst right now with a 53% / 47% split. A slight uptick in natural regression should result in more passing TDs.

I think it's quite likely he flirts with 25 passing TDs next year (on pace for about 20 this year). That alone, without any additional growth in passing yards or rushing production would catapult him inside the top5.

And again, we aren't factoring in any internal growth in Murray the player, that offense in general, and Kingsbury the play-caller. If I was in charge of that offense, I'd be looking long & hard at what Baltimore has done with Lamar Jackson and ask myself, why can't we do the same thing with Murray?
Yeah, I find it difficult to predict linear growth from QB's at that age. Wentz, Baker, Dak, and many others go up and down. Not faulting anyone for thinking Kyler as top 5, I just won't put him there quite yet.
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Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
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Re: Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

Postby Jigga94 » Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:17 pm

blemly wrote:
Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:01 pm
There are few NFL QBs with as much weekly downside as Winston. This game just shows why he can never be in my T12.
And watch him still put up 15 points and possibly win. Few QB are this night and day lol
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Mostert, Snell, J. Jackson, Hyde, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, Julio, DJM, Hollywood, Cooks, C. Davis, Preston, Parris, MVS
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.08

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Samuels, J. Jackson, Gaskin
WR: DJM, Mike Will, Hollywood, Deebo, Diontae, C. Davis, Lazard, Parris, MVS, AB
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Jonnu, Thomas
2020: 1.09, 2.02, 2.05
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

Postby joeya2001 » Sat Dec 21, 2019 2:25 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:15 pm
Phaded wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 5:30 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:14 pm


Perhaps, but they weren't willing to take his 5th year option. Winston has arm talent, but he's one of the biggest boneheads I've seen play at the position in recent years. Teams that turn the ball over that much don't win, it's just how it is. Winston won't be a winning QB unless he cuts the turnovers, and he's shown zero indication he can or will do that. In terms of him being with the Bucs, it really depends on what Winston wants and how much TB is prepared to pay. There is no guarantee Jameis and the Bucs are on the same page financially.
...he's currently playing under his 5th year option...
Thats twice in 1 thread that FF has made an obvious error. :think:

The other being that Winston was any where near breaking the INT record. Heck he would need 6 INTs in the last 2 games to finish with a top 10 INT season (which admittedly is possible).
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Re: Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

Postby whaley88 » Tue Dec 24, 2019 8:57 am

Tannehill has to go up with his way since he took over. I'd easily bet on him finishing put as a low end qb1 next year at worst.

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Re: Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:33 am

Wentz is well above Baker, and little above Kyler still, for me. If he can do this with this practice squad and injuries to the OL, I think his floor/ceiling combo is one of the best. I'd have him below only Mahomes, Lamar, Wilson and Watson.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer/Runner Up

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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Re: Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

Postby Pac_Eddy » Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:42 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:33 am
Wentz is well above Baker, and little above Kyler still, for me. If he can do this with this practice squad and injuries to the OL, I think his floor/ceiling combo is one of the best. I'd have him below only Mahomes, Lamar, Wilson and Watson.
I think this is where I'm at with Wentz too. Thought I was alone with that.
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Re: Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:13 am

Early Top 12 for 2020*:

Josh Allen
Jimmy Garoppolo
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
Dak Prescott
Ben Roethlisberger
Aaron Rodgers
Matt Ryan
Matthew Stafford
Deshaun Watson
Carson Wentz
Russell Wilson

Alternates:
Brees
Goff
Tannehill

Top 12 Longer Term**:

Teddy Bridgewater
Derek Carr
Sam Darnold
Jared Goff
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
Baker Mayfield
Kyler Murray
Matthew Stafford
Russell Wilson
Carson Wentz
Jameis Winston

Alternates:
Haskins
Jones
Minshew


Neither list is sorted 1-12 - just aphabetically

* - Stronger emphasis on current situation & potential in 2020

** - Stronger focus on player talent & longer term upside (next 3-5 years)

*** - 2020 Rookies not mentioned due to lack of landing spot as situation & system is key imho to a QB development
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:17 am

ArrylT wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:13 am
Early Top 12 for 2020*:

Josh Allen
Jimmy Garoppolo
Patrick Mahomes
Dak Prescott
Ben Roethlisberger
Aaron Rodgers
Matt Ryan
Matthew Stafford
Ryan Tannehill
Deshaun Watson
Carson Wentz
Russell Wilson

Alternates:
Brees
Goff

Top 12 Longer Term**:

Teddy Bridgewater
Derek Carr
Sam Darnold
Jared Goff
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
Baker Mayfield
Kyler Murray
Matthew Stafford
Russell Wilson
Carson Wentz
Jameis Winston

Alternates:
Haskins
Minshew

Neither list is sorted 1-12 - just aphabetically

* - Stronger emphasis on current situation & potential in 2020

** - Stronger focus on player talent & longer term upside (next 3-5 years)

*** - 2020 Rookies not mentioned due to lack of landing spot as situation & system is key imho to a QB development
Lamar Jackson isn't in the top 12 for 2020....

:wall:

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Re: Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:19 am

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:17 am

Lamar Jackson isn't in the top 12 for 2020....

:wall:
I think what happened is I accidentally cut his name when I cut & pasted the names to the 2nd column - thanks for noticing the error - I have fixed it. Had to add a 3rd Alternate to each column. :oops:
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:30 am

I would put Kyler in over all of them except

Mahomes
Jackson
Watson
Wilson
Wentz
and maybe Allen

Rodgers is not an elite fantasy QB anymore

Do we really still trust Ben after the injury and watching his draft mates Eli/Rivers? (I don't)

Kyler is already much better than Jimmy G in fantasy

Really gonna trust Tannehill already?

The last 3 years we've seen a 2nd year QB (Wentz, Mahomes, Lamar) explode into MVP and #1 QB conversations, and none of them were nearly as good as Kyler as rookies who finished as a top 10 fantasy QB this year. Kyler will be a top 10 fantasy QB next year and a good chance at being top 5.

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Re: Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

Postby Jigga94 » Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:17 pm

I agree with Kyler but you can't compare his rookie years to Lamar and Mahomes. C'mon man :lol:
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Mostert, Snell, J. Jackson, Hyde, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, Julio, DJM, Hollywood, Cooks, C. Davis, Preston, Parris, MVS
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.08

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Samuels, J. Jackson, Gaskin
WR: DJM, Mike Will, Hollywood, Deebo, Diontae, C. Davis, Lazard, Parris, MVS, AB
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Jonnu, Thomas
2020: 1.09, 2.02, 2.05
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Early 2020 Rankings - Top 12 QBs

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:47 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:30 am
Rodgers is not an elite fantasy QB anymore
He may not be to you or many other owners - but he remains one to me. Especially considering he led the league this year in fewest INTs. He has had 6 INTS over the past 2 years. Yes you read that correctly - 6 INTs over 32 games. -4 INT scoring is becoming more popular - pretty sure its a Scot Fish Bowl staple & DLF Safe Leagues scoring format, as well as gaining popularity in SF/2QB formats. So when you have a league with -3 or -4 INT scoring Rodgers is in the mix for top 6.

Even in typical PPR he was still top 12, if not top 10 depending on scoring format. All with a new coach / system and a changing array of WRs & struggles at TE. Not one offensive weapon on his team started 16 games this year. (save Aaron Jones). Only Adams had more than 80 targets (and he missed 4 games). Yet Rodgers still was top 10 in TDs & had a 4000 yard season. The only other QBs with 4000 yards, 25+ TDs and 6 or less INTs? Mahomes & Wilson. Brees would have possibly qualified if he hadnt missed 5 games.
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:30 am
Do we really still trust Ben after the injury and watching his draft mates Eli/Rivers? (I don't)
To me that is faulty & illogical reasoning. Roethlisberger has no control over how other QBs perform so whether or not Eli Manning or Philip Rivers struggle has no bearing on Big Bens chances going forward. That is no different that watching 2 5'9 RBs struggle at the Combine and projecting all 5'9 RBs will struggle. However regarding the injury we will get a health update in a month - if the prognosis suggests a delay in rehab then we can re-evaluate - there is a reason why it said early 2020 projections.
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:30 am
Kyler is already much better than Jimmy G in fantasy
While I am not a Jimmy G fanboy - I liked how his first full season with the 49ers offense progressed. We already saw in 2017 what his upside could be in a Shanahan offence & will be almost 2 years removed from his 2018 ACL - which should allow for even more mobility.
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:30 am
Really gonna trust Tannehill already?
Anyone whose seen my posts on Tannehill over the years would know I never stopped trusting Tannehill had QB1 potential in any given year. 8-)
bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:30 am
The last 3 years we've seen a 2nd year QB (Wentz, Mahomes, Lamar) explode into MVP and #1 QB conversations, and none of them were nearly as good as Kyler as rookies who finished as a top 10 fantasy QB this year. Kyler will be a top 10 fantasy QB next year and a good chance at being top 5.
I guess that is where we differ - I felt all 3 had better rookie seasons from a talent stand point. If going by statistics alone - sure Kyler was 'better' than Wentz but from what I saw & learned from each QB - I would easily say that long term I would be more comfortable with any of those over Kyler Murray. That does not mean Murray is not going to be successful - I did list him in my top 12 long-term after all.

Just that I dont consider his rookie season highly successful. I consider it up & down, and statistically pleasing. I am projecting a Mayfield type statistical decline (but am prepared to be wrong at the end of 2020) for his sophomore year as more teams have better ways to defend against him - and the evidence shown down the stretch suggests this is more probable than not.

Murray after the bye:
95-149-1019-6-7
QB 22

Stastistically speaking overall Murray benefited from a year with much turmoil at the QB position - prior to the season the following QBs were all projected to finish above him:

Newton, Luck, Brees, Roethlisberger

And I personally would have added

Stafford & Darnold

Darnold actually from Week 6 return from Mono matched Kyler Murray in production (219.65 to 221.70 in typical ppr), and outscored him over the last 6-7-8 games. Stafford outscored Murray during the 1st 8 games (when Murray did his most statistical damaged).

All in all thats a min of 6 QBs who if healthy/playing could have pushed Murray down the ladder. Possibly more depending on the site doing the pre-season projections.

Again I am NOT saying Murray is a bust, had a bad season or anything negative - just noting that breaking down his season a bit & adding some context suggests - to me at least - that Murray 2019 was not a uber successful rookie year - rather a decent rookie year based on the current nfl landscape. Otherwise owners are making the same mistake many did with Mayfield after his rookie season. Mayfield not Wentz or Lamar is the warning - the other 2 had strong sophomore seasons after appearing to have disappointing rookie years while Mayfield had the disappointing 2nd year after having a rookie year that was overhyped (but still successful). And Mahomes sophomore needs no real mentioning since he still finished as a top 6 QB1 while missing almost 3 full games.

So Murray to me long-term QB1 - short term 2020 - safe early bet to be a QB2 due to return of proven QB1s and potential for sophomore struggles. We shall have to change our stances depending on how things play out during the off-season of course.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..


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