TD passes will almost definitely go up, here's 3 reasons why:FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:54 amNot quite yet. People put Baker as high as QB2 after 1 year, and that was a mistake. I have more faith in Kyler, though. I think he's close, but I'd have him outside of top 5 still. I don't think his rushing will be much higher. TD passes could go up, but I don't see the rushing getting much higher, they aren't looking to use him like Lamar. They still need to get better weapons on the outside, or have guys like Isabella develop, or Butler. I don't think that they are huge difference makers next year, and Fitz will only be another year older if he comes back, if he comes back. FA class at WR isn't looking that good, so Kyler will be looking at the same weapons, unless they draft a WR early.kmbryant09 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:44 amAnyone else tempted to put Murray in the top5 of these lists and knocking on the Tier 1 door? Afterall, we're projecting these QB's for next year and beyond, not just solely on how they've performed in the past.
He’s currently QB #7 on the season, despite playing as a Rookie behind a terrible O-Line. He doesn’t exactly have a ton of weapons to throw to (Fitzgerald is washed up, Kirk has been solid but not great and injured), but Arizona should look to add targets in the off-season, and they’ll look to develop Butler & Isabella. And Kingsbury is still working out some kinks as a play-caller and a decision-maker – most notably struggling with red-zone conversions and being too conservative kicking field goals.
We’re also witnessing a 2nd year breakout from a mobile, undersized QB in Lamar Jackson, so the concept shouldn’t be too hard to fathom. I’m not suggesting that Murray will be breaking records next year like Lamar has done this year, but what’s preventing him from taking a giant-sized leap from his already solid fantasy production?
1. Kingsbury struggled early in the season with play-calling, most notably in the red-zone. They were too conservative and kicked way too many field goals.
2. Their weapons should only improve. I don't think losing Fitzgerald is a big deal at all, and should be MORE than offset by the developments of Kirk, Isabella, & a healthy Butler. They could also add weapons in FA (Green, Sanders, R. Anderson, etc.) or in the draft (it's an absurdly deep class).
3. TD regression should happen naturally. The NFL average for TD % is about 63% / 37% for passing / rushing TDs. Arizona is 4th worst right now with a 53% / 47% split. A slight uptick in natural regression should result in more passing TDs.
I think it's quite likely he flirts with 25 passing TDs next year (on pace for about 20 this year). That alone, without any additional growth in passing yards or rushing production would catapult him inside the top5.
And again, we aren't factoring in any internal growth in Murray the player, that offense in general, and Kingsbury the play-caller. If I was in charge of that offense, I'd be looking long & hard at what Baltimore has done with Lamar Jackson and ask myself, why can't we do the same thing with Murray?