Dynasty League Football Forum

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:32 am**

FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:27 am
Ice wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:21 am
FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:54 am

Yeah, I mean, I don't see a ton of "raw talent". He's accurate when he has time and doesn't have to go off script. For an NFL QB, that should be basic. I've seen a lot of debate about his "talent" as well. A lot of people think he was overdrafted by the Browns.
Baker was one of the most prolific QB's in the history of college football. His mid range accuracy and accuracy on the move were elite.

Often times people confuse talent with success. Baker was a lock first round talent by virtually everyone in football, one can debate if he was the best talent worthy of the top pick but the skill set was not in question.

How Baker develops his skill set within the team game is what people should debating. He certainly needs to add discipline to his game and hopefully with a more structured environment he will.

Baker does have a lot of Favre in his game so I suspect he will remain somewhat of a lighting rod and will have plenty of advocates and detractors for the next several years.

People seem to have already forgotten Baker broke P. Manning's and R. Wilson Passing TD record in fewer games en route to his rookie of the year award. Throwing the baby out with the bathwater after the dumpster fire that were the entire Browns organization last year may be a bit premature.

No question there are risks with Baker, but it isn't actual raw talent.
Baker really wasn't very accurate last year. He's talented, but I don't think he has more talent than most QB's in the NFL. I'd still rank him around 10-12 in Dynasty.

Beyond Mahomes, Lamar, Watson, Wilson, Wentz and Dak, I think the next few guys behind that for me can switch fairly easily. I have Kyler next after those guys, but he needs to show me more before I put him up with the players I've already mentioned.

No argument with any of those QB's ranked ahead of him plus a few more.
Baker obviously has to elevate his game.

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:51 pm**

Ice wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:21 am
FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:54 am
Lotto4Life wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:38 am
I've seen a lot of conflicting opinions on how much raw talent he actually has.
Yeah, I mean, I don't see a ton of "raw talent". He's accurate when he has time and doesn't have to go off script. For an NFL QB, that should be basic. I've seen a lot of debate about his "talent" as well. A lot of people think he was overdrafted by the Browns.
Baker was one of the most prolific QB's in the history of college football. His mid range accuracy and accuracy on the move were elite.

Often times people confuse talent with success.

I'll put out the disclaimer that I only saw probably 4-5 of his games in college. Most of his mid range and on the move throws were to WRs with nobody within 3-5 yards of them. He was undeniably very successful. Does he have elite talent? I don't know and like I said I've seen and heard conflicting opinions. Sometimes people confuse success with talent.

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:04 pm**

I also don't see elite and don't think Baker will ever scratch elite. Elite is Mahomes/Rodgers/Russ, with Brees/Brady grandfathered in. I feel very confident saying that Baker will never be in that group. Fine QB, but not an elite QB.

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:47 pm**

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:04 pm I also don't see elite and don't think Baker will ever scratch elite. Elite is Mahomes/Rodgers/Russ, with Brees/Brady grandfathered in. I feel very confident saying that Baker will never be in that group. Fine QB, but not an elite QB.

I don't disagree, but that doesn't mean he can't be a perennial fantasy QB1 like Stafford or Roethlisberger have been.

Posted: **Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:36 am**

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:47 pm
dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:04 pm I also don't see elite and don't think Baker will ever scratch elite. Elite is Mahomes/Rodgers/Russ, with Brees/Brady grandfathered in. I feel very confident saying that Baker will never be in that group. Fine QB, but not an elite QB.
I don't disagree, but that doesn't mean he can't be a perennial fantasy QB1 like Stafford or Roethlisberger have been.

That's not unreasonable. I don't think he's quite on that level, but not out of the realm of possibility.

Posted: **Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:27 am**

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:04 pm I also don't see elite and don't think Baker will ever scratch elite. Elite is Mahomes/Rodgers/Russ, with Brees/Brady grandfathered in. I feel very confident saying that Baker will never be in that group. Fine QB, but not an elite QB.

You could be right, but I thought I’d mention something about your post. You list Brees as elite, and he was a common comp for Mayfield if I remember correctly. Brees struggled early on as well (more than Baker has and in a better situation). He wasn’t insta-elite. Year 4 he really came alive as a good looking nfl qb, and wasn’t providing elite numbers until year 6, significantly upping his future yardage output, and year 8, upping his future projected yardage and TD output.
Brady...yeah he’s the GOAT but honestly he was just a fantasy eh qb, just a rosterable guy for quite a while. Year 6 he somewhat showed his statistical output shine breaking out to 4110 and 26, putting him on the map as a decent fantasy starter but nothing fabulous. 8 years in he entirely unexpectedly to most put up 4806 and 50 (thank you Randy for your 23 and your script-flipping talent)...and boom he was an elite fantasy asset capable of providing those elite numbers to owners.

I write all this simply to say...I think it’s a bold stance to be “very confident” Mayfield will never scratch elite. Yeah, I know Brady and Brees are very rare amongst a ton of highly touted yet fallen short QBs. Mayfield might just be a high expectations guy that never ascends, like Carson Palmer (although his age 36 year was elite) or he might get injured out of his chance like Pennington. I just find it bold to say that the guy who set efficiency records in college and then broke the rookie passing TD record without a full season while leading THE BROWNS WITH HUE’S HAVEN’T WON IN OVER A YEAR OFFENSE can never scratch elite.

Elite is rare. Most guys fail...but the bets for future elites don’t get too much better than Mayfield.
*by future elites I mean guys that will ascend, not guys like Mahomes that are a great bet to remain elite

Posted: **Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:33 pm**

Valhalla wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:27 am
dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:04 pm I also don't see elite and don't think Baker will ever scratch elite. Elite is Mahomes/Rodgers/Russ, with Brees/Brady grandfathered in. I feel very confident saying that Baker will never be in that group. Fine QB, but not an elite QB.
You could be right, but I thought I’d mention something about your post. You list Brees as elite, and he was a common comp for Mayfield if I remember correctly. Brees struggled early on as well (more than Baker has and in a better situation). He wasn’t insta-elite. Year 4 he really came alive as a good looking nfl qb, and wasn’t providing elite numbers until year 6, significantly upping his future yardage output, and year 8, upping his future projected yardage and TD output.
Brady...yeah he’s the GOAT but honestly he was just a fantasy eh qb, just a rosterable guy for quite a while. Year 6 he somewhat showed his statistical output shine breaking out to 4110 and 26, putting him on the map as a decent fantasy starter but nothing fabulous. 8 years in he entirely unexpectedly to most put up 4806 and 50 (thank you Randy for your 23 and your script-flipping talent)...and boom he was an elite fantasy asset capable of providing those elite numbers to owners.

I write all this simply to say...I think it’s a bold stance to be “very confident” Mayfield will never scratch elite. Yeah, I know Brady and Brees are very rare amongst a ton of highly touted yet fallen short QBs. Mayfield might just be a high expectations guy that never ascends, like Carson Palmer (although his age 36 year was elite) or he might get injured out of his chance like Pennington. I just find it bold to say that the guy who set efficiency records in college and then broke the rookie passing TD record without a full season while leading THE BROWNS WITH HUE’S HAVEN’T WON IN OVER A YEAR OFFENSE can never scratch elite.

Elite is rare. Most guys fail...but the bets for future elites don’t get too much better than Mayfield.
*by future elites I mean guys that will ascend, not guys like Mahomes that are a great bet to remain elite

Problem there is every one of those guys had stability in terms of offensive system. Baker is starting from scratch every season and that’s never good for a guy’s development. The only guy to overcome this level of instability is probably Alex Smith, or maybe Derek Carr if you like his game, and that’s not exactly a glowing recommendation for fantasy purposes.

Posted: **Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:13 pm**

ericanadian wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:33 pm
Valhalla wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:27 am
dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:04 pm I also don't see elite and don't think Baker will ever scratch elite. Elite is Mahomes/Rodgers/Russ, with Brees/Brady grandfathered in. I feel very confident saying that Baker will never be in that group. Fine QB, but not an elite QB.
You could be right, but I thought I’d mention something about your post. You list Brees as elite, and he was a common comp for Mayfield if I remember correctly. Brees struggled early on as well (more than Baker has and in a better situation). He wasn’t insta-elite. Year 4 he really came alive as a good looking nfl qb, and wasn’t providing elite numbers until year 6, significantly upping his future yardage output, and year 8, upping his future projected yardage and TD output.
Brady...yeah he’s the GOAT but honestly he was just a fantasy eh qb, just a rosterable guy for quite a while. Year 6 he somewhat showed his statistical output shine breaking out to 4110 and 26, putting him on the map as a decent fantasy starter but nothing fabulous. 8 years in he entirely unexpectedly to most put up 4806 and 50 (thank you Randy for your 23 and your script-flipping talent)...and boom he was an elite fantasy asset capable of providing those elite numbers to owners.

I write all this simply to say...I think it’s a bold stance to be “very confident” Mayfield will never scratch elite. Yeah, I know Brady and Brees are very rare amongst a ton of highly touted yet fallen short QBs. Mayfield might just be a high expectations guy that never ascends, like Carson Palmer (although his age 36 year was elite) or he might get injured out of his chance like Pennington. I just find it bold to say that the guy who set efficiency records in college and then broke the rookie passing TD record without a full season while leading THE BROWNS WITH HUE’S HAVEN’T WON IN OVER A YEAR OFFENSE can never scratch elite.

Elite is rare. Most guys fail...but the bets for future elites don’t get too much better than Mayfield.
*by future elites I mean guys that will ascend, not guys like Mahomes that are a great bet to remain elite
Problem there is every one of those guys had stability in terms of offensive system. Baker is starting from scratch every season and that’s never good for a guy’s development. The only guy to overcome this level of instability is probably Alex Smith, or maybe Derek Carr if you like his game, and that’s not exactly a glowing recommendation for fantasy purposes.

I agree. I’m just saying, imo if he fails it has more to do with Haslam than with a lack of talent.

Posted: **Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:03 pm**

ericanadian wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:33 pm
Valhalla wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:27 am
dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:04 pm I also don't see elite and don't think Baker will ever scratch elite. Elite is Mahomes/Rodgers/Russ, with Brees/Brady grandfathered in. I feel very confident saying that Baker will never be in that group. Fine QB, but not an elite QB.
You could be right, but I thought I’d mention something about your post. You list Brees as elite, and he was a common comp for Mayfield if I remember correctly. Brees struggled early on as well (more than Baker has and in a better situation). He wasn’t insta-elite. Year 4 he really came alive as a good looking nfl qb, and wasn’t providing elite numbers until year 6, significantly upping his future yardage output, and year 8, upping his future projected yardage and TD output.
Brady...yeah he’s the GOAT but honestly he was just a fantasy eh qb, just a rosterable guy for quite a while. Year 6 he somewhat showed his statistical output shine breaking out to 4110 and 26, putting him on the map as a decent fantasy starter but nothing fabulous. 8 years in he entirely unexpectedly to most put up 4806 and 50 (thank you Randy for your 23 and your script-flipping talent)...and boom he was an elite fantasy asset capable of providing those elite numbers to owners.

I write all this simply to say...I think it’s a bold stance to be “very confident” Mayfield will never scratch elite. Yeah, I know Brady and Brees are very rare amongst a ton of highly touted yet fallen short QBs. Mayfield might just be a high expectations guy that never ascends, like Carson Palmer (although his age 36 year was elite) or he might get injured out of his chance like Pennington. I just find it bold to say that the guy who set efficiency records in college and then broke the rookie passing TD record without a full season while leading THE BROWNS WITH HUE’S HAVEN’T WON IN OVER A YEAR OFFENSE can never scratch elite.

Elite is rare. Most guys fail...but the bets for future elites don’t get too much better than Mayfield.
*by future elites I mean guys that will ascend, not guys like Mahomes that are a great bet to remain elite
Problem there is every one of those guys had stability in terms of offensive system. Baker is starting from scratch every season and that’s never good for a guy’s development. The only guy to overcome this level of instability is probably Alex Smith, or maybe Derek Carr if you like his game, and that’s not exactly a glowing recommendation for fantasy purposes.

Im not convinced Stability is essential to development. More likely good QBs provide more job security, and not the other way around. Looking back on previous QBs entering the year with a new OC, youre just as likely to improve in a new system as you are to regress.

Posted: **Sun Feb 16, 2020 7:30 pm**

IZigUZag wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:03 pm
ericanadian wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:33 pm
Valhalla wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:27 am

You could be right, but I thought I’d mention something about your post. You list Brees as elite, and he was a common comp for Mayfield if I remember correctly. Brees struggled early on as well (more than Baker has and in a better situation). He wasn’t insta-elite. Year 4 he really came alive as a good looking nfl qb, and wasn’t providing elite numbers until year 6, significantly upping his future yardage output, and year 8, upping his future projected yardage and TD output.
Brady...yeah he’s the GOAT but honestly he was just a fantasy eh qb, just a rosterable guy for quite a while. Year 6 he somewhat showed his statistical output shine breaking out to 4110 and 26, putting him on the map as a decent fantasy starter but nothing fabulous. 8 years in he entirely unexpectedly to most put up 4806 and 50 (thank you Randy for your 23 and your script-flipping talent)...and boom he was an elite fantasy asset capable of providing those elite numbers to owners.

I write all this simply to say...I think it’s a bold stance to be “very confident” Mayfield will never scratch elite. Yeah, I know Brady and Brees are very rare amongst a ton of highly touted yet fallen short QBs. Mayfield might just be a high expectations guy that never ascends, like Carson Palmer (although his age 36 year was elite) or he might get injured out of his chance like Pennington. I just find it bold to say that the guy who set efficiency records in college and then broke the rookie passing TD record without a full season while leading THE BROWNS WITH HUE’S HAVEN’T WON IN OVER A YEAR OFFENSE can never scratch elite.

Elite is rare. Most guys fail...but the bets for future elites don’t get too much better than Mayfield.
*by future elites I mean guys that will ascend, not guys like Mahomes that are a great bet to remain elite
Problem there is every one of those guys had stability in terms of offensive system. Baker is starting from scratch every season and that’s never good for a guy’s development. The only guy to overcome this level of instability is probably Alex Smith, or maybe Derek Carr if you like his game, and that’s not exactly a glowing recommendation for fantasy purposes.
Im not convinced Stability is essential to development. More likely good QBs provide more job security, and not the other way around. Looking back on previous QBs entering the year with a new OC, youre just as likely to improve in a new system as you are to regress.

I suppose that is the dynasty equivalent of the chicken vs. the egg.

Posted: **Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:10 pm**

something like that

Posted: **Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:34 pm**

IZigUZag wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:03 pm
ericanadian wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:33 pm
Valhalla wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:27 am

You could be right, but I thought I’d mention something about your post. You list Brees as elite, and he was a common comp for Mayfield if I remember correctly. Brees struggled early on as well (more than Baker has and in a better situation). He wasn’t insta-elite. Year 4 he really came alive as a good looking nfl qb, and wasn’t providing elite numbers until year 6, significantly upping his future yardage output, and year 8, upping his future projected yardage and TD output.
Brady...yeah he’s the GOAT but honestly he was just a fantasy eh qb, just a rosterable guy for quite a while. Year 6 he somewhat showed his statistical output shine breaking out to 4110 and 26, putting him on the map as a decent fantasy starter but nothing fabulous. 8 years in he entirely unexpectedly to most put up 4806 and 50 (thank you Randy for your 23 and your script-flipping talent)...and boom he was an elite fantasy asset capable of providing those elite numbers to owners.

I write all this simply to say...I think it’s a bold stance to be “very confident” Mayfield will never scratch elite. Yeah, I know Brady and Brees are very rare amongst a ton of highly touted yet fallen short QBs. Mayfield might just be a high expectations guy that never ascends, like Carson Palmer (although his age 36 year was elite) or he might get injured out of his chance like Pennington. I just find it bold to say that the guy who set efficiency records in college and then broke the rookie passing TD record without a full season while leading THE BROWNS WITH HUE’S HAVEN’T WON IN OVER A YEAR OFFENSE can never scratch elite.

Elite is rare. Most guys fail...but the bets for future elites don’t get too much better than Mayfield.
*by future elites I mean guys that will ascend, not guys like Mahomes that are a great bet to remain elite
Problem there is every one of those guys had stability in terms of offensive system. Baker is starting from scratch every season and that’s never good for a guy’s development. The only guy to overcome this level of instability is probably Alex Smith, or maybe Derek Carr if you like his game, and that’s not exactly a glowing recommendation for fantasy purposes.
Im not convinced Stability is essential to development. More likely good QBs provide more job security, and not the other way around. Looking back on previous QBs entering the year with a new OC, youre just as likely to improve in a new system as you are to regress.

Been over this a few times, but I’d strongly disagree. Look at the guys outside the top two rounds that have gone on to success and they pretty much all came from a situation where they had the same offensive system for their first three season. Brady? Charlie Weis. Romo? Bill Parcells. Marc Bulger? Bobby Jackson. Matt Schaub? Greg Knapp. Matt Cassel? Josh McDaniels. Kyle Orton? Ron Turner. Andy Dalton? Jay Gruden. Russell Wilson? Darrell Bevell. Andy Dalton

On the other side, you’re looking at Fitzmagic, Garrard, Foles and maybe Derek Anderson and/or Tyrod Taylor.

If you go to the first/second round, there is a little more give, but outside of a few exceptions (listed below), the hit rate is awful.

If you’re redshirting year one behind an established starter, you still have a shot. This was the route for Aaron Rodgers (behind Favre) & Drew Brees (behind Flutie).

If you’re an elite rusher, you still have a shot. This was the route for Cam Newton, Mike Vick & Dante Culpepper. Though, the passing capabilities of any of these guys are a bit questionable.

If your offensive change is to an offense you’re already familiar with. This was the route of Andrew Luck, who was changed to his college OC after year one.

With those exclusions, you can add Alex Smith & Sam Bradford in terms of QBs where we know who they are. There are a few young guys who could join their ranks in Winston, Mariota, Goff, Carr & Trubisky, but I’m not holding my breath. Watson, Wentz & Mahomes technically changed coordinators, but the systems remain the same in all three cases as O’Brien, Pederson & Reid are the system designers.

Posted: **Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:21 am**

Baker wasn't a 1st round prospect until his final season.

Posted: **Mon Feb 17, 2020 4:42 am**

Cult of Dionysus wrote: ↑Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:21 am Baker wasn't a 1st round prospect until his final season.

Same as Kyler last year & Burrow this year. So we should be avoiding them too? Is that what you are trying to say?

Posted: **Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:55 am**

I'm thinking of making a move for Baker as his value is pretty low. Is offering Anthony Miller straight up a fair deal? 1 QB, 0.5 ppr.

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