Darrell Henderson

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ericanadian
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Re: Darrell Henderson

Postby ericanadian » Tue Dec 24, 2019 7:28 pm

Kelldon wrote:
Tue Dec 24, 2019 5:55 am
Never really understood what people saw in this guy and why they had him as a 1st rounder, some had him top 6. I felt he was a mid-late 2nd rounder. Classic example of drafting situation over talent. Even then the situation wasn't really clear between not fully knowing how Gurley was gonna look or be used and fact that they kept Brown. I felt Gurley was on a definite decline but figured he had 2 more years of getting the bulk of workload or at least 50/50. So I was not comfortable spending a 1st on a rb who was almost a lock not to be the guy for 2 years. Curious what people think he will be long term now.
Would you have been happy with his performance as a mid-late second rounder? It’s clear the guy had talent, so I don’t get the point in suggesting that you would’ve taken him lower (where he still would’ve been a bust) as some point of pride.
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Re: Darrell Henderson

Postby Krypto_King » Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:59 pm

I can't wait to draft CMC's backup in the 1st and call it situation over talent

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Re: Darrell Henderson

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:15 am

Krypto_King wrote:
Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:59 pm
I can't wait to draft CMC's backup in the 1st and call it situation over talent
I wouldn't say those 2 situations are really comparable. Gurley had been diagnosed with a degenerative knee condition, and the Rams had already stated they'd manage his workload. The Rams spent two 3rd round picks on one of the most explosive and productive college RB's in the country. CMC is healthy and a few years younger than TG was.
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Re: Darrell Henderson

Postby Kelldon » Wed Dec 25, 2019 5:50 am

Maybe Henderson's situation didn't look so great to some(me being one of them) being behind Gurley but it sure sounded like a great situation the way a lot of people were talking about it here. There were many people who had Gurley basically one foot in the grave already and Henderson being the lead back within a year or two. Also many thought he was gonna have a pretty decent role this year.

The Rams are a good situation for a rb and I felt it would be good for Henderson 2021 and on, but there were many who thought it would be as early as 2019 or 2020. I thought with Gurley's knee issue coming into this year that he would have 2 more solid seasons and then prolly be gone. I do think Henderson is talented though just didn't good about taking a rb in the 1st round that I felt wasn't going to do much for 2+ years.

Basically people who still believed Gurley had some time left and was not done didn't see it as a great situation Short Term. Those who had Gurley done for saw it as a great situation right out the gate.
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Re: Darrell Henderson

Postby Shcritters » Wed Dec 25, 2019 6:44 am

This was the year that solidified the ‘always draft talent over situation’ moniker for me. I’ve consistently been in the back half of drafts over the last ten years and I find that this sort of thing can happen a lot. There are always a few players who drop significantly because they are perceived to be in a bad place and a few who rise above where they should because of perceived situation. I’m happy to sit in the back half of the draft and scoop up those who fall. OBJ fell to 1.07 in one draft (for those who won’t do revisionist history you will remember he was injured, not a huge name coming out, and NYG not perceived as a great situation), Chubb fell to 1.09 in another (was going to be the backup, injury concerns), and this year people in my league drafted Campbell and DaHen while I was able to scoop up AJBrown at 1.10. I’ll be at 1.10 again this year and look forward to this happening again.

It is too early to say with absolute certainty that DaHen is a bust - the Rams are in a bad spot cap wise and could eat his cap and cut him for 2021 - but the early results on DaHen are not good.
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Re: Darrell Henderson

Postby dlf_mikeh » Wed Dec 25, 2019 7:29 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:15 am
The Rams spent two 3rd round picks on one of the most explosive and productive college RB's in the country.
Does everyone remember when the Browns spent an early first on one of the most explosive & productive RBs in the country, and he didn't have anybody to compete with? That's both situation and talent. Trent Richardson, 3rd overall in the NFL and 1st overall for dynasty.

Henderson doesn't have nearly the talent TRich had nor the draft capital. What's worse is that I think Henderson is actually more uncoachable than TRich was based on interviews and observations with the team and player.

You can talk yourself into hating a player that's good or liking a player that's bad. Those are just coping mechanisms imo. If you can recognize talent or the lack of it before other owners in your league, then you're the eventual champion in the long run. You've gotta go with the percentages. Out of 100%, what are the chances that you think DH will succeed vs fail? If you're less than 50/50, you gotta bail on this kid before it's too late. That's what separates the great dynasty owners from the good/average ones; the recognition of talent or the lack of it before others.
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Re: Darrell Henderson

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Wed Dec 25, 2019 9:04 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2019 7:29 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:15 am
The Rams spent two 3rd round picks on one of the most explosive and productive college RB's in the country.

What's worse is that I think Henderson is actually more uncoachable than TRich

Got anything objective to back this up?

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Re: Darrell Henderson

Postby dlf_mikeh » Wed Dec 25, 2019 11:19 am

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2019 9:04 am
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2019 7:29 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:15 am
The Rams spent two 3rd round picks on one of the most explosive and productive college RB's in the country.
What's worse is that I think Henderson is actually more uncoachable than TRich
Got anything objective to back this up?
I've posted it before but it's worth repeating. Coachability means players do the little things during games. They are so coachable that they pay attention to the slightest details. I've been a coach for 10+ years, and the difference between my good players and great ones are the attention to detail and ability to take criticism as a positive thing.

DH doesn't scrape the edge of his defenders, he carries the ball in one hand, things like that. Little things that don't make or break a player but enough to make me realize that he isn't coachable. Plus.... his interviews are hard to watch. I question his intelligence & football IQ. I don't want to be mean, but a higher IQ is obviously better, especially in McVay's complicated schemes.
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Re: Darrell Henderson

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:24 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2019 7:29 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:15 am
The Rams spent two 3rd round picks on one of the most explosive and productive college RB's in the country.
Does everyone remember when the Browns spent an early first on one of the most explosive & productive RBs in the country, and he didn't have anybody to compete with? That's both situation and talent. Trent Richardson, 3rd overall in the NFL and 1st overall for dynasty.

Henderson doesn't have nearly the talent TRich had nor the draft capital. What's worse is that I think Henderson is actually more uncoachable than TRich was based on interviews and observations with the team and player.

You can talk yourself into hating a player that's good or liking a player that's bad. Those are just coping mechanisms imo. If you can recognize talent or the lack of it before other owners in your league, then you're the eventual champion in the long run. You've gotta go with the percentages. Out of 100%, what are the chances that you think DH will succeed vs fail? If you're less than 50/50, you gotta bail on this kid before it's too late. That's what separates the great dynasty owners from the good/average ones; the recognition of talent or the lack of it before others.
That's all well and good, but you cherry picked my quote and then created a narrative that has nothing to do with my comment, or the one I was replying to. My comment was to address the idea that drafting CMC's backup this rookie draft would be similar to the Gurley/Henderson situation as of last year, when Henderson was drafted. It isn't really similar, because of the production and draft capital of Henderson as of last year, and the known health problems and questions about Gurley going forward, compared to a healthy CMC, that will almost certainly not have a RB drafted behind him with the production, athletic profile or draft capital of 2 thirds invested in him.

FWIW, I agree that you have to recognize talent or bail before the value really drops etc. My teams were a combined 58-14 this year, so I feel I'm doing fairly well in that regards, albeit there is certainly room for improvement, as I have missed on some players. I'd also add that getting players you feel are talented (using the example of Henderson) that don't flash right away at a discount early in their career can be equally beneficial. Just using this as an example, but there are players who don't do well right away, that ultimately do produce, and if you can get them cheaper from an owner who has given up on them, this helps you to create a stronger roster by using less "capital".
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Re: Darrell Henderson

Postby dlf_mikeh » Wed Dec 25, 2019 1:07 pm

I didn't want that reply to be directed at you. It brought up something I wanted to expand on, but when I was done I realized it was more directed towards you and less towards an audience of readers. I changed the words "you" in the first two paragraphs to make it more ambiguous but I forgot to switch the third paragraph somehow. My apologies.
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Re: Darrell Henderson

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Dec 25, 2019 1:14 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2019 1:07 pm
I didn't want that reply to be directed at you. It brought up something I wanted to expand on, but when I was done I realized it was more directed towards you and less towards an audience of readers. I changed the words "you" in the first two paragraphs to make it more ambiguous but I forgot to switch the third paragraph somehow. My apologies.
Nah, it's all good. I just wanted to be sure it wasn't taken out of context as my reasoning on why Henderson would or should be good. I still agree with your overall point on how evaluation needs to be on adaptive, ongoing process, and that odds and values need to be adjusted based on new information.
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Re: Darrell Henderson

Postby Pullo Vision » Thu Dec 26, 2019 5:41 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:15 am
Krypto_King wrote:
Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:59 pm
I can't wait to draft CMC's backup in the 1st and call it situation over talent
I wouldn't say those 2 situations are really comparable. Gurley had been diagnosed with a degenerative knee condition, and the Rams had already stated they'd manage his workload. The Rams spent two 3rd round picks on one of the most explosive and productive college RB's in the country. CMC is healthy and a few years younger than TG was.
Krypto didn't really say WHEN. I took it to mean when CMC has had another year or two of these bellcow like touches. At that point, a Jordan Howard type could get vaulted in anticipation of complementing McCaffrey.
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