Darrell Henderson

[jcc6fd]

Someone mentioned Gurley being available. Would make a lot of sense since he already knows the plays

Gurley would be a clear backup though. Seems like the Jones hype is somehow outsizing the Henderson hype, which seems odd (unless you view it from the lens of everyone having a shot at Jones on the WW whereas Henderson will be rostered).

A lot of people discounting Henderson despite him being very effective during his stint as a starter last year. To me his biggest hurdle might be his own risk of injury rather than performance. Wouldn't move Henderson for less than a late first at this point and I wouldn't blame anyone for wanting to hold.

[Needalife]

For those saying they wouldn't sell for less than a 1st, is that just because you plan to utilize him this season? I wouldn't think he would command a 1st because his long-term value remains highly suspect. If Akers is back next season, it's a timeshare at best for Henderson. Plus, they'll likely add a vet... Gurley, Le'Veon, Peterson... and Xavier Jones looked interesting in spots last year.

To me, I'd buy for a 2nd if I was RB-needy and sell for a 2nd if I was not quite contending this year. I think it's a pipe dream to think you can suddenly get a 1st for him but stranger things have happened... but a 2nd feels like the reasonable value buying & selling.

[j4pac]

There is no guarantee that Akers comes back better than Henderson. Henderson is still young and talented. There are very few “bellcow” type guys in the league now. Most teams have timeshares and backs coexist. How can someone currently take an unknown like Sermon or Michael Carter over Henderson right now? That would be stupid in my opinion. That firmly puts Henderson in the mid 1st round range.

[j4pac]

For those saying they wouldn't sell for less than a 1st, is that just because you plan to utilize him this season? I wouldn't think he would command a 1st because his long-term value remains highly suspect. If Akers is back next season, it's a timeshare at best for Henderson. Plus, they'll likely add a vet... Gurley, Le'Veon, Peterson... and Xavier Jones looked interesting in spots last year.

To me, I'd buy for a 2nd if I was RB-needy and sell for a 2nd if I was not quite contending this year. I think it's a pipe dream to think you can suddenly get a 1st for him but stranger things have happened... but a 2nd feels like the reasonable value buying & selling.

You’d take Michael Carter over him? Because Carter is your late 1st round RB this year.

[jcc6fd]

For those saying they wouldn't sell for less than a 1st, is that just because you plan to utilize him this season? I wouldn't think he would command a 1st because his long-term value remains highly suspect. If Akers is back next season, it's a timeshare at best for Henderson. Plus, they'll likely add a vet... Gurley, Le'Veon, Peterson... and Xavier Jones looked interesting in spots last year.

To me, I'd buy for a 2nd if I was RB-needy and sell for a 2nd if I was not quite contending this year. I think it's a pipe dream to think you can suddenly get a 1st for him but stranger things have happened... but a 2nd feels like the reasonable value buying & selling.

You’d take Michael Carter over him? Because Carter is your late 1st round RB this year.

Exactly. He's now inherited the starting job with minimal competition for touches on a decent offense which is theoretically improved with Stafford. He's also still young and show ability when given opportunity (he broke out last year and everyone wants to act like that didn't happen post his injury opening the door for Akers). I would be very shocked if anyone was able to buy for less than a late first.

[sugbear65]

There is no guarantee that Akers comes back better than Henderson. Henderson is still young and talented. There are very few “bellcow” type guys in the league now. Most teams have timeshares and backs coexist. How can someone currently take an unknown like Sermon or Michael Carter over Henderson right now? That would be stupid in my opinion. That firmly puts Henderson in the mid 1st round range.

I’m not gonna argue that I may be stupid, but I would take Carter over Henderson. I think calling Henderson a “bell cow” seems a lot premature. And I admit I like Carter a ton. I think they both end up in a timeshare this year. Henderson may be in the better offense for this year, but I like Carter’s chances of staying relevant and being a better fantasy asset moving forward.

[OhCruelestRanter]

We should refresh ourselves on Henderson.

Drafted at 3.06 by the Rams
5’8” 208, ran a 4.49
8.2 YPC in college, and was featured over Antonio Gibson

Struggled as a rookie behind Gurley. As a 2nd year pro, he averaged 4.52 YPC (Brown 4.1, Akers 4.3) and he was FootballOutsiders 4th most efficient RB on the ground among qualifying RBs (>100 carries).

I don’t think there’s enough here to necessarily suggest that this guy is a budding superstar who’s going to garner 300+ touches and be a high end RB1, but he was actually good last year in a limited role in the context of the Rams offense. However, unless LAR trades for James Robinson or something, there’s basically no path for him to end up in a worse situation than last year. I’ve been viewing him as one of the highest upside pure handcuffs in the league this year, so it’s time to see if it pays off.

[Valhalla]

If I recall correctly, PFF had Henderson as their #1 RB through week 10 (not exactly a small sample to be #1) last year. He wasn't just capable but was quite good. He then got injured.
He was outstanding in college (albeit at Memphis) and was yes taken with a 3rd rounder but they used two 3rd rounders to move up to get him, right? So he was productive in college, the team moved up for him, he produced VERY WELL from a somewhat objective (PFF) measure, then got injured and Akers also produced and for some reason I don't understand the fantasy community at large says Henderson is a minimal factor guy suddenly. Then Akers is injured and somehow people still want to say Henderson is a hot potato and worth a late second? I don't understand the logic. Late first RBs are way worse bets IMO.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Someone mentioned Gurley being available. Would make a lot of sense since he already knows the plays

Wouldn't it make more sense to sign a RB that doesn't suck?

The Rams knew Gurley was finished in 2019, yet fantasy folks blamed Rams OL and coach. Gurley proved to everyone he is finished last year. Yet he is still discussed? If he is signed at all, it will be after week 1 so they can cut him anytime

The Rams are not going to sign anyone RB right now, they'll see what their young RBs have to offer. Any RB available as a FA has no juice left. I can maybe see bringing in AP in a limited role.

Yep. And they'll also likely want to see what RB's don't crack the 53-man roster of other teams. Even guys who get cut might be more useful than a Gurley, AP, Bell, etc.. at this stage of their careers. And cost less too.

[Valhalla]

Someone mentioned Gurley being available. Would make a lot of sense since he already knows the plays

Wouldn't it make more sense to sign a RB that doesn't suck?

The Rams knew Gurley was finished in 2019, yet fantasy folks blamed Rams OL and coach. Gurley proved to everyone he is finished last year. Yet he is still discussed? If he is signed at all, it will be after week 1 so they can cut him anytime

The Rams are not going to sign anyone RB right now, they'll see what their young RBs have to offer. Any RB available as a FA has no juice left. I can maybe see bringing in AP in a limited role.

Yep. And they'll also likely want to see what RB's don't crack the 53-man roster of other teams. Even guys who get cut might be more useful than a Gurley, AP, Bell, etc.. at this stage of their careers. And cost less too.

Hello Josh Adams?

[stoneghost28]

On the subject of possible vets coming in, I do recall the Rams GM describing Henderson as the kind of lightning to Akers Thunder roll going into 2020. That's not word for word, to paraphrase based on memory, he basically was suggesting Henderson was viewed as an explosion big play guy they wanted to get in space and use in mismatches, but not an every down back. I wonder if they'd still see it that way, look at it as a 50/50 committee with Jones or a vet signing or what. I'm in a weird situation, I have 6 shares of Akers across 15 teams (2 on RSO teams, 4 on Dynasty teams-2 acquired this offseason, crap!!!), and I have Henderson behind Akers on 2 of those 6 teams, and just as a late round flyer in a keeper annual redraft this year (already kept Taylor, Swift, and Dobbins, and drafted Javonte for that team).

Trying to figure out if I should sell Henderson or try to buy him, and if I should buy Akers (I won't be selling, I'm not big on selling guys at a loss unless I 100% don't believe in them anymore, and w/Akers, I'd rather bet and pray on a full recovery)? I don't know how much any of them should be. I wanted to buy some Henderson for an early 22 2nd valuation, or a player of similar value, but I don't think Henderson owners will do a deal like that and as others have said, I'm definitely not willing to pay through the nose for a likely rental with only 2 years left on his rookie deal with St. Louis and Akers possibly getting the gig back a year from now (especially since the injury is in July rather than in season).

[Jigga94]

I would sell Hendy now tbh.

Go to the Akers owner while he's still vulnerable and the Rams haven't signed a veteran, and make the offer.

What's the sell price? 2022 2nd, projected late?

That is way too low. I would expect an early 2nd or late 1st in return.
I just declined:

Give up Henderson, OBJ
for Landry, Jamal Williams, 2022 1st (projected late)

I'd have taken that. Come next year, that 1st is the most valuable piece.

[smbkrypt24]

What's the sell price? 2022 2nd, projected late?

That is way too low. I would expect an early 2nd or late 1st in return.
I just declined:

Give up Henderson, OBJ
for Landry, Jamal Williams, 2022 1st (projected late)

I'd have taken that. Come next year, that 1st is the most valuable piece.

I don't disagree that the late first would likely be the most valuable piece, but OBJ and Henderson could be very close to that value next year as well. This is the Akers owner that I tried to sell him Henderson for a 2nd (approximate valuation) in June. He told me he is worth a 3rd. I think he should pay up and not get him cheaply now that Akers went down with injury.

[Jigga94]

That is way too low. I would expect an early 2nd or late 1st in return.
I just declined:

Give up Henderson, OBJ
for Landry, Jamal Williams, 2022 1st (projected late)

I'd have taken that. Come next year, that 1st is the most valuable piece.

I don't disagree that the late first would likely be the most valuable piece, but OBJ and Henderson could be very close to that value next year as well. This is the Akers owner that I tried to sell him Henderson for a 2nd (approximate valuation) in June. He told me he is worth a 3rd. I think he should pay up and not get him cheaply now that Akers went down with injury.

We're on similar pages here. I just wouldn't get too greedy and probably cash out on this opportunity. It might also come down to my feelings on the 2 players you'd be giving in the deal, as well as team composition.

1. How good of a season does Henderson need to have in order to be worth a 1st come next year when Akers will be back? I realize that Achilles injuries are pretty serious and Akers isn't guaranteed to step back in as a starter if Henderson does well, but he should be back to steal touches at worst. My thoughts are that Henderson could have an RB2 level season and then you have a mess in the backfield next year. Of course, an RB2 season is valuable and I shouldn't just write that off, but I have doubts Henderson will hit that mark

2. OBJ next year will be 30. I don't think a lot of people were getting 1sts for Julio at that age and he was still very productive. What kind of year does Odell need to get back in the 1st range when he's on the wrong side of the age spectrum and there's an abundance of WR talent? If anything, he and Landry should remain close in value. Same age, same team, etc.

Again, I can't blame anyone for holding onto Henderson now and hoping for good production at RB (that's hard to come by). I've done it on teams that are competing and it's worked out (Gaskin, Damien Williams in the past). Some teams though, I'd be cashing out as the value window seems to close rather fast

[smbkrypt24]

I'd have taken that. Come next year, that 1st is the most valuable piece.

I don't disagree that the late first would likely be the most valuable piece, but OBJ and Henderson could be very close to that value next year as well. This is the Akers owner that I tried to sell him Henderson for a 2nd (approximate valuation) in June. He told me he is worth a 3rd. I think he should pay up and not get him cheaply now that Akers went down with injury.

We're on similar pages here. I just wouldn't get too greedy and probably cash out on this opportunity. It might also come down to my feelings on the 2 players you'd be giving in the deal, as well as team composition.

1. How good of a season does Henderson need to have in order to be worth a 1st come next year when Akers will be back? I realize that Achilles injuries are pretty serious and Akers isn't guaranteed to step back in as a starter if Henderson does well, but he should be back to steal touches at worst. My thoughts are that Henderson could have an RB2 level season and then you have a mess in the backfield next year. Of course, an RB2 season is valuable and I shouldn't just write that off, but I have doubts Henderson will hit that mark

2. OBJ next year will be 30. I don't think a lot of people were getting 1sts for Julio at that age and he was still very productive. What kind of year does Odell need to get back in the 1st range when he's on the wrong side of the age spectrum and there's an abundance of WR talent? If anything, he and Landry should remain close in value. Same age, same team, etc.

Again, I can't blame anyone for holding onto Henderson now and hoping for good production at RB (that's hard to come by). I've done it on teams that are competing and it's worked out (Gaskin, Damien Williams in the past). Some teams though, I'd be cashing out as the value window seems to close rather fast

Yes, I agree if I was solely extracting value I would probably have accepted the deal. Couple points and reasoning for myself that I held off:
1. Henderson would slot in as my RB3 this year and the first two are shaky (Mixon, Hunt)
2. I think Henderson gains value going into next year with decent play. Akers returning to any resemblance of himself is not something I would count on. I don't think the Rams draft anyone early due to their draft pick situation so I like Henderson to compete for the starting position next year as well.