Carlos Hyde- what Gives? I thought this dude was toast!

[trc]

Not trying to be mean, but if you are not giving up the 24th or so pick in the draft for Damien, I don’t know what to say.

I simply don't think he is dead certain to be the main guy. Just as I'm not certain Hyde will be either.

On top of that, I think it is a 1-year rental.

Just like Ware and West produced like elite RBs in that system.

[Cameron Giles]

Not trying to be mean, but if you are not giving up the 24th or so pick in the draft for Damien, I don’t know what to say.

I simply don't think he is dead certain to be the main guy. Just as I'm not certain Hyde will be either.

On top of that, I think it is a 1-year rental.

Just like Ware and West produced like elite RBs in that system.

Even if you believe he's just a short-term gap, a late 2nd is a shot in the dark. Williams at least has games to point to where you know he can produce.

To me, it's not even close. A late 2nd is essentially an early 3rd in terms of the type of player available.

[trc]

Not trying to be mean, but if you are not giving up the 24th or so pick in the draft for Damien, I don’t know what to say.

I simply don't think he is dead certain to be the main guy. Just as I'm not certain Hyde will be either.

On top of that, I think it is a 1-year rental.

Just like Ware and West produced like elite RBs in that system.

Even if you believe he's just a short-term gap, a late 2nd is a shot in the dark. Williams at least has games to point to where you know he can produce.

To me, it's not even close. A late 2nd is essentially an early 3rd in terms of the type of player available.

100 % agreed. To me choosing between Williams/Hyde is also a shot in the dark.
I would rather take my chance with a rookie that I like, than using it on a average to below average RB in a 1 year perfect situation.

[Cameron Giles]

100 % agreed. To me choosing between Williams/Hyde is also a shot in the dark.
I would rather take my chance with a rookie that I like, than using it on a average to below average RB in a 1 year perfect situation.

What are the chances that a rookie you like with a late 2nd helps you win a league more than Williams next season?

[FantasyDumDum]

I don’t need to read any further than what you wrote about Breida being worse/less efficient in 2017...

Hyde 2017:
240/938yds, 3.9ypc, 8td. 88/59rec, 350yds, 5.9ypr, 0td.

Breida 2017:
105/465yds, 4.4ypc, 2td. 36/21rec, 180yds, 8.6ypr, 1td.


You can try to whip up wild narratives excusing Hyde’s terrible on field performance again and again and again across multiple offenses and schemes that are otherwise producing high end RB1s and 2 while he is barely playing at a backup level if that, but you can’t make up stats.

Your opinions aren't facts. You're right. You can't make up stats. You can certainly interpret them in various ways, though.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- ... plus-minus

According to the above article, Breida (and Marlon Mack) were the two most inefficient running backs on a per target level in the NFL in '17. Hyde has more drops faulted to him (one more), but on a much higher target count. Breida has more yards per reception, but dropped passes at a much higher percentage. You can interpret the stats to argue who was worse on your own. They were both bad.

What "wild narrative" was I whipping up? I thought my post was reasoned enough...do you think it's a wild narrative to say that the 49ers entire offense was inefficent? Or that Hue Jackson's or Doug Marrone's systems were inefficent? I guess that's too wild. Or maybe it's just wild because it opposes the "Damien is God" narrative...
PS I bought Damien recently. I'm just offering people some reasoned counters to your indisputable argumentative approach.

I understand you’re trying to offer some kind of devils advocate POV, but beware of these bleep analytics sites.

If given the same targets here is Hyde v Breida:

Hyde 88tar/59rec, 350yds, 5.9ypr, 0TD
Breida 88tar/51.3rec, 440yds, 8.6ypr, 2.44TD

ANYONE saying Breida was worse or less efficient is lying to you, either straight up, or with statistics.

[trc]

100 % agreed. To me choosing between Williams/Hyde is also a shot in the dark.
I would rather take my chance with a rookie that I like, than using it on a average to below average RB in a 1 year perfect situation.

What are the chances that a rookie you like with a late 2nd helps you win a league more than Williams next season?

Slim.

But imo just as good or better in the next 2+ seasons.

[Jfever]

In my experience a combination of stats and context is the best approach. The truth is yet to be known but I don’t think Hyde is as done as some hint. Personally, I have next to zero interest in either of Hyde or D.Williams. I agree it’s a good situation there in KC but I firmly believe that both these Rb are bandaids at best and are replaceable. D.Williams I think is fools gold while Hyde is probably a bargain and a wiser ishort term investment.

[Hottoddies]

100 % agreed. To me choosing between Williams/Hyde is also a shot in the dark.
I would rather take my chance with a rookie that I like, than using it on a average to below average RB in a 1 year perfect situation.

What are the chances that a rookie you like with a late 2nd helps you win a league more than Williams next season?

Maybe spending a 4th round pick on Darwin Thompson might do the trick.

[Valhalla]

I understand you’re trying to offer some kind of devils advocate POV, but beware of these bleep analytics sites....

Can you direct me to where you got this?
“His receiving production has been historically bad. Despite medium and heavy target volume respectively in 2016 and 2017, he had THE WORST production per target at that volume of any RB in NFL history over that time.”

I’m genuinely curious to read it. Under what statistical circumstances/cutoffs does he become the worst of all time?

I don’t follow much of what ffoutsiders does, but I find it ironic that you called them a bleep analytics site and followed up your proof of it with an extrapolation from 21 receptions. Maybe be more open to other opinions. Even the famed Einstein listened to and debated with his colleagues, and was wrong from time to time. There are a lot of very smart people that disagree on a lot of things. Healthy debates don’t make them dumb.

[Jfever]

Well said. I value the differing points of view. There is much to be learned from an informed discussion / debate. It (as long as all parties listen) provokes thought rather than stunting it.

[FantasyDumDum]

I understand you’re trying to offer some kind of devils advocate POV, but beware of these bleep analytics sites....

Can you direct me to where you got this?
“His receiving production has been historically bad. Despite medium and heavy target volume respectively in 2016 and 2017, he had THE WORST production per target at that volume of any RB in NFL history over that time.”

I’m genuinely curious to read it. Under what statistical circumstances/cutoffs does he become the worst of all time?

I don’t follow much of what ffoutsiders does, but I find it ironic that you called them a bleep analytics site and followed up your proof of it with an extrapolation from 21 receptions. Maybe be more open to other opinions. Even the famed Einstein listened to and debated with his colleagues, and was wrong from time to time. There are a lot of very smart people that disagree on a lot of things. Healthy debates don’t make them dumb.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... by=targets


88 or more targets in a season as an RB has happened 88 times in the last 26 years. Only 1 other player had lower ypr on that list on that target volume or more. (R Bush, 2007, 98 targets, 73 receptions, 417 yards, 5.7ypr, 2 TDs - still better overall production per target and per catch than Hyde, and that is pretty clearly the second worst season/player on the list - Hyde is a clear worst).

Carlos Hyde’s rank out of 88:
Receptions 85
Yards 88
YPR 87
TDs 85(tied for last)
Yards/Game 88(last)
Catch % 79
Yds/Target 88

[Jfever]

FantasyDD, what are ya more confident in; Hyde totally sucking and being a fantasy non factor or D.Williams being a rb1 in dynasty scoring throughout the 2019 season? Just curious.

You’ve really dug your heels in here and I can respect that but, imo, context really does matter. As in there usually is a cause / effect to be found. Like, for example, D.Williams was a depth guy and 3rd on depth chart and looked the part of a classic fantasy JAG behind less than inspiring players while in Miami (a struggling offense), and after some drama (K.Hunt) in KC, (a very good offense), he gets an opportunity and he has a very effective and productive stretch. (albeit, a short stretch). I mean... context really does matter quite a bit. This leads me to think that given a better supporting cast and situation, Hyde could see a resurgence toward the end of his career. I don’t claim to know this, just that it is reasonable and seemingly probable to think or st least consider such a thing. Football stats simply are not always apples to apples. It isn’t one on one, like say wrestling or tennis. Ones team, scheme, coaches, play calling, game script, oline, oline health, surrounding skill position players, and qb, all have - or can have massive sinergistic effects (possitive or negative) on statistics. Just my take on it. Peace.

[FantasyDumDum]

If you expand that list to 75 or more targets, the list grows to 171 players, and Hyde remains clearly the worst.

Feel free to keep reducing targets until you can find a worse receiving performance. Good luck

[Jfever]

Did ya not read what I just posted? If you only look and concentrate on stats you miss most of this pastime. There is likely more to it. Can’t ya see that?

[FantasyDumDum]

FantasyDD, what are ya more confident in; Hyde totally sucking and being a fantasy non factor or D.Williams being a rb1 in dynasty scoring throughout the 2019 season? Just curious.

You’ve really dug your heels in here and I can respect that but, imo, context really does matter. As in there usually is a cause / effect to be found. Like, for example, D.Williams was a depth guy and 3rd on depth chart and looked the part of a classic fantasy JAG behind less than inspiring players while in Miami (a struggling offense), and after some drama (K.Hunt) in KC, (a very good offense), he gets an opportunity and he has a very effective and productive stretch. (albeit, a short stretch). I mean... context really does matter quite a bit. This leads me to think that given a better supporting cast and situation, Hyde could see a resurgence toward the end of his career. I don’t claim to know this, just that it is reasonable and seemingly probable to think or st least consider such a thing. Football stats simply are not always apples to apples. It isn’t one on one, like say wrestling or tennis. Ones team, scheme, coaches, play calling, game script, oline, oline health, surrounding skill position players, and qb, all have - or can have massive sinergistic effects (possitive or negative) on statistics. Just my take on it. Peace.

Hyde will be irrelevant. I feel extremely confident in that. Damien Williams has a very good shot to be an RB1, but that depends mostly on not being injured, and secondarily on not being outplayed by one of the rookies Thompson or J Williams, who have MUCH higher likelihood than Hyde or Darrel Williams of doing anything meaningful fantasy wise in KC. If Damien goes down I still don’t think Hyde is relevant as more than a part time 2 down back.

And I appreciate the discussion but you are the one ignoring context when you don’t want to face Hyde’s stats and tape on 3 separate teams in the last 2 seasons that all show he is far worse and less productive than any other RB he has played beside. Breida, Chubb, Duke Johnson, Fournette, Yeldon all outplayed Hyde, aome by a huge margin, on the same team, same scheme as Hyde. And then you discount Damien Williams as a JAG despite ELITE production per touch throughout his entire time in an awful Miami offense specifically well-known for player/talent mismanagement. Damien Williams outperformed Lamar Miller, Jay Ajayi, and Kenyan Drake per touch and not by a little in Miami. He massively outperformed Kareem Hunt per touch in KC.

If Damien Williams gets starting volume in KC everything points to him being an elite RB1. KC GM has said it is Williams’ job to lose. Every action the Chiefs have taken has backed that statement up 100%.

I don’t know what else to say to those burying their head in the sand or hoping for a miracle that isn’t coming for Hyde owners that should have divested after his poor season in 2017.