Carlos Hyde- what Gives? I thought this dude was toast!

[FantasyDumDum]

Really? The most talented RB in KC is only worth a 3rd or 4th round pick which would most likely be totally worthless? I could see that if KC drafted another RB but as of now he looks to be the best they have. I think he could put up high RB2, possibly RB1 numbers in 2019 if they don't pick up anyone else. I was thinking at least a 2nd when I started this, I'm really surprised how little he's valued by some of you but I appreciate the input.

Hyde is definitively not talented. You may want to revisit your scouting methods to include metrics, statistics, career path, age, and game tape. Beyond all of those portraying Hyde very poorly, KC’s GM has said the starting job is Damien Williams’ to lose.

[jordanzs]

I have Damien Williams in a few leagues. I would be willing to pay a late 3rd for Hyde. I would rather keep my 2nds in my pocket though.

[Cameron Giles]

Really? The most talented RB in KC is only worth a 3rd or 4th round pick which would most likely be totally worthless? I could see that if KC drafted another RB but as of now he looks to be the best they have. I think he could put up high RB2, possibly RB1 numbers in 2019 if they don't pick up anyone else. I was thinking at least a 2nd when I started this, I'm really surprised how little he's valued by some of you but I appreciate the input.

Hyde turns 29 this season and his YPC has dropped the last two seasons. How talented is he at this point? Right now he's like a poor man's Mark Ingram.

[ninotoreS]

If you can get a 3rd or better for Hyde, sell. Preferably for 2020 picks.

Given that some poor fools are convinced he'll take Damien's job, good chance Hyde owners can make out like bandits right now. I wish I owned him so I could do it.

Right now [Hyde's] like a poor man's Mark Ingram.

I agree with the gist of what you're saying, but even in the poor man's context, I feel like that's throwing undeserved shade at Mark.

Albeit overshadowed by Kamara (and Sproles and Pierre Thomas years before that), Ingram is a respectable asset on passing-downs. In contrast... although Hyde owners like to point to his receptions total in 2017, in fact he was the second and third worst graded RB in the league at pass-protection and receiving respectively last season, and that's not a new development with him.

[sloth8u]

Really? The most talented RB in KC is only worth a 3rd or 4th round pick which would most likely be totally worthless? I could see that if KC drafted another RB but as of now he looks to be the best they have. I think he could put up high RB2, possibly RB1 numbers in 2019 if they don't pick up anyone else. I was thinking at least a 2nd when I started this, I'm really surprised how little he's valued by some of you but I appreciate the input.

4 teams in a yr should tell us something. (Niners, browns, jags, chiefs) i get that you may have had hyde on some solid teams in the past, i did myself....but he has little to no trade value in most circles right now. To be completely honest....you may not be able to move him if you try, depending on your league.

On the flip side, if you believe....you can offer a late pick and potentially get him. Id temper expectations since i dont see his skill set as a 3 down back with the chiefs.

[sugbear65]

The cheapest, sneakiest RB2 for fantasy this year. I can’t believe the love Williams gets vs the hate Hyde does. I’ll say it confidently, Hyde is the better back. 1000 yds and double digit TDs this year, fantasy comeback of the year candidate. I would get him where available.

[ninotoreS]

The battlefields of fantasy football are littered with the corpses of owners that overestimated aging 'name' RBs draped with objective evidence of decline, just because they landed in a supposedly good situation.

I’ll say it confidently, Hyde is the better back.

You'd struggle to find any analytics whatsoever to objectively support that assessment.

The cheapest, sneakiest RB2 for fantasy this year.

And this is Peyton Barber. Unless the Bucs trade Gerald McCoy for Duke Johnson, ofc.

[trc]

The battlefields of fantasy football are littered with the corpses of owners that overestimated aging 'name' RBs draped with objective evidence of decline, just because they landed in a supposedly good situation.

I’ll say it confidently, Hyde is the better back.

You'd struggle to find any analytics whatsoever to objectively support that assessment.

The cheapest, sneakiest RB2 for fantasy this year.

And this is Peyton Barber. Unless the Bucs trade Gerald McCoy for Duke Johnson, ofc.

IMO Damien did well after Hunt.
But I can't get out of my mind, why he is suddenly such a beast, that Hyde will almost never gets his chance of proving what he can do. Did Damien ever have any starts in MIA (barring injury games to the average playsers of fossil-Foster, Lamar, and the most recent I cant remember)?

Hyde actually looked decent in CLE, until Chubb came along. And by decent I mean average, and Damien prior to this season hasn't been able to beat out average players.

I think KC last season was the perfect storm for Damien. I could be terrible wrong.

On topic.
I wouldn't wanna bet on any of these backs.
Could I get them as a package for early 2nd/late 1st, I would prolly do it. But I wouldn't acquire any of them alone, unless it was dirt cheap (aka later than 2nd round).

[Huh]

The battlefields of fantasy football are littered with the corpses of owners that overestimated aging 'name' RBs draped with objective evidence of decline, just because they landed in a supposedly good situation.

I’ll say it confidently, Hyde is the better back.

You'd struggle to find any analytics whatsoever to objectively support that assessment.

The cheapest, sneakiest RB2 for fantasy this year.

And this is Peyton Barber. Unless the Bucs trade Gerald McCoy for Duke Johnson, ofc.

IMO Damien did well after Hunt.
But I can't get out of my mind, why he is suddenly such a beast, that Hyde will almost never gets his chance of proving what he can do. Did Damien ever have any starts in MIA (barring injury games to the average playsers of fossil-Foster, Lamar, and the most recent I cant remember)?

Hyde actually looked decent in CLE, until Chubb came along. And by decent I mean average, and Damien prior to this season hasn't been able to beat out average players.

I think KC last season was the perfect storm for Damien. I could be terrible wrong.

On topic.
I wouldn't wanna bet on any of these backs.
Could I get them as a package for early 2nd/late 1st, I would prolly do it. But I wouldn't acquire any of them alone, unless it was dirt cheap (aka later than 2nd round).

Not trying to be mean, but if you are not giving up the 24th or so pick in the draft for Damien, I don’t know what to say.

[PurpleHaze]

The cheapest, sneakiest RB2 for fantasy this year. I can’t believe the love Williams gets vs the hate Hyde does. I’ll say it confidently, Hyde is the better back. 1000 yds and double digit TDs this year, fantasy comeback of the year candidate. I would get him where available.

Exactly. Hyde is a steal right now.

[FantasyDumDum]

It is a bit strange and disconcerting to see posters pumping up Hyde here - disconcerting in that it makes one really think about the quality of knowledge of some here when taking in information on players that maybe I don’t know as well. I do however know Hyde very well. I am a 49ers fan, previous Hyde owner that was lucky to get out from under him after 2017, and I’ve read several in depth analyses both here and elsewhere on him, his stats, metrics/analytics/advanced stats, and his career path/trajectory.

Some brief summaries on these points:

Hyde in 2016(his best year as an RB by far):
217 carries, 988yds, 4.6ypc, 6td. 33 targets, 27rec, 163yds, 6.0ypr, 0td.

Hyde in 2017(high volume, abysmal production):
240 carries, 938yds, 3.9ypc, 8td. 88 targets, 59rec, 350yds, 5.9ypr, 0td.

Hyde in 2018(let’s not even go there it was well below backup level production and efficiency at the NFL level).

In 2016 he had a nice ypc, but everything else about his production was pedestrian, including his pass blocking, which graded as near the bottom of the league.

In 2017, he had abysmal production and efficiency at 3.9ypc and 5.9ypr on high volume usage, and somehow was rated even worse at pass blocking, at last in the NFL for qualifying RBs.

2018 was worse than either year by a long shot.

It isn’t just his pass blocking that is near or at league worst. His receiving production has been historically bad. Despite medium and heavy target volume respectively in 2016 and 2017, he had THE WORST production per target at that volume of any RB in NFL history over that time. Total of 121 targets, only 86 receptions, 513 yards, 5.9 ypr, and 0 TDs, over two seasons. Yikes that is so bad it is impossible to overstate.

On top of that he will be 29 near the start of this season, will be close to 3 years removed from his production peak(which was very low in elevation anyways), and is currently on a cheap 1 year contract on his 4th team in just over 1 calendar year; on none of which did he produce quality stats, especially per touch/target.

And further working against Hyde is that the starter in KC is 2 years younger, on an upward trajectory in his career, has fresh legs and little wear on his body, has performed as an elite efficiency RB per touch his entire career, including in Miami but also as the most productive RB per touch in the league as a starter in KC last year, averaging 23 .5 ppr fantasy points per game as on relatively low volume, and is on a 2 year contract. [Mentioned above is that Damien Williams is the starter - Veach has confirmed publicly as much]


There just isn’t enough bad you can say about Hyde as an RB, especially for fantasy, and especially in comparison to Damien Williams, at this point in his career.

[Valhalla]

It is a bit strange and disconcerting to see posters pumping up Hyde here - disconcerting in that it makes one really think about the quality of knowledge of some here when taking in information on players that maybe I don’t know as well. I do however know Hyde very well. I am a 49ers fan, previous Hyde owner that was lucky to get out from under him after 2017, and I’ve read several in depth analyses both here and elsewhere on him, his stats, metrics/analytics/advanced stats, and his career path/trajectory.

Some brief summaries on these points:

Hyde in 2016(his best year as an RB by far):
217 carries, 988yds, 4.6ypc, 6td. 33 targets, 27rec, 163yds, 6.0ypr, 0td.

Hyde in 2017(high volume, abysmal production):
240 carries, 938yds, 3.9ypc, 8td. 88 targets, 59rec, 350yds, 5.9ypr, 0td.

Hyde in 2018(let’s not even go there it was well below backup level production and efficiency at the NFL level).

In 2016 he had a nice ypc, but everything else about his production was pedestrian, including his pass blocking, which graded as near the bottom of the league.

In 2017, he had abysmal production and efficiency at 3.9ypc and 5.9ypr on high volume usage, and somehow was rated even worse at pass blocking, at last in the NFL for qualifying RBs.

2018 was worse than either year by a long shot.

It isn’t just his pass blocking that is near or at league worst. His receiving production has been historically bad. Despite medium and heavy target volume respectively in 2016 and 2017, he had THE WORST production per target at that volume of any RB in NFL history over that time. Total of 121 targets, only 86 receptions, 513 yards, 5.9 ypr, and 0 TDs, over two seasons. Yikes that is so bad it is impossible to overstate.

On top of that he will be 29 near the start of this season, will be close to 3 years removed from his production peak(which was very low in elevation anyways), and is currently on a cheap 1 year contract on his 4th team in just over 1 calendar year; on none of which did he produce quality stats, especially per touch/target.

And further working against Hyde is that the starter in KC is 2 years younger, on an upward trajectory in his career, has fresh legs and little wear on his body, has performed as an elite efficiency RB per touch his entire career, including in Miami but also as the most productive RB per touch in the league as a starter in KC last year, averaging 23 .5 ppr fantasy points per game as on relatively low volume, and is on a 2 year contract. [Mentioned above is that Damien Williams is the starter - Veach has confirmed publicly as much]


There just isn’t enough bad you can say about Hyde as an RB, especially for fantasy, and especially in comparison to Damien Williams, at this point in his career.

All valid and concerning points.
I just want to add some context and counter-arguments to this, because I don't see it as so concrete an answer like you do.

I'll lead into this in saying that you, as a 49er fan, have watched way more of Carlos Hyde than I ever have, so you know him better. I'd also like to say, though, that assuming anyone who disagrees with you should be questioned on their intelligence is in itself not a smart way to approach most anything.

Hyde has, unfortunately for him, been a part of some pretty horrible situations over the last couple years. He has effectively been shipped from one falling apart situation to the next, with teams during some of their toughest offensive stretches. The counter to this is, of course, they couldn't get it done on offense BECAUSE they were rolling with Hyde...but that argument doesn't really hold water.

You mentioned how historically bad he was in '16 and '17 as a pass catcher. Just to add context here, you should remember the offense as a whole. '16 was Kaepernick and Gabbert (both in the 50s for completion % and 21 combined TDs on the year). Rod Streater and Chris Harper (both on low volume) were the only receivers that caught over 60% of their targets. They were a horribly inefficient group. The tight ends were just as inefficient. The RBs were also inefficent; Hyde caught 81.8% of his targets, but at a low YPR. The other RBs can't be argued to be better. In short, the '16 Kaepernick and Gabbert led 49ers were inefficent across the board.

Let's look at '17. Again you have an offense that was pretty damn inefficient across the board. Most of the season was led by Hoyer and Beathard. The team threw for a whopping 15 total touchdowns, and yes, again a pretty low completion percentage. Kittle and Taylor weren't bad, weren't stellar. They were decent. Hyde's catch % dropped considerably. You mention he was "the worst" RB statistically speaking in history...but there must be a volume restriction you have put on that...because, by lowering the volume threshold, it looks like the RB in the league that was even MORE inefficent than Hyde in '17...was Matt Breida. It's truly strange that the two most inefficent receiving backs in the LEAGUE are the two getting the most volume in this Hoyer and Beathard led offense. It makes one wonder if it had anything to do with the passers...since the whole offense (not just the RBs) was pretty damn inefficient.
*Breida in '18 was surprisingly efficient with a marked improvement in QB play ( ). The team QB Y/A went up by a full yard, TDs took a nice spike, completion % went up considerably, everything about the QB passing efficency there jumped from '17 to '18. It led to a marked improvement in the receiver, tight end, and yes, running back efficiency as pass catchers. I suppose someone who just hates Hyde will counter with saying that of course it got better because Hyde wasn't back there turnstyling as a pass protector. There's your counter, all pre-packaged for you. I say they just had BETTER passes being delivered.

OK so how about the "4 team" '18 year...
He went from the improving 49ers situation to the Hue Jackson system Browns offense. He looked...bad in Cleveland. So did everything in that offense (aside from Baker and the flashes Chubb gave) until Hue left town. Tyrod didn't even complete 50%. Comparing Hyde to Chubb in this stretch of games is the best argument against Hyde. It's a small sample (especially Chubb's touch count), and Chubb is IMO pretty damn good, so saying Hyde is absolute garbage because of this small sample size isn't what most would call statistically significant. Neither is taking the small sample size of Damien Williams last year, but that's another discussion. Anyways…it was pretty obvious that Chubb was better than Hyde (not a condemning statement), so they understandably moved him. Unfortunately for Hyde, they moved him just before the Browns and Mayfield were unleashed (moved on from the tragically bad coaching/system). Also unfortunately for Hyde, they moved him to a team that was incredibly offensively inefficient. I don’t know if I have to go into the details of this Bortles led group, so I’ll just summarize it in pointing out that Fournette averaged 3.3 YPA. Hyde also only mustered 3.3 in this garbage predictable offensive system, and was worse in the receiving game than both Fournette and Yeldon, so there’s another counter-argument for you.

So…he was part of the 49ers offense during a very difficult quarterbacking and general offensive efficiency stretch. So were the other players, who miraculously all improved when the QB play improved, but Hyde was gone already. He had gone to play in the incredibly predictable Hue Jackson offense, which was, to borrow from your phrasing, historically bad. Just before the “Baker off the leash” show took over, Hyde was shipped to one of the worst offenses in the league, where he got little opportunity and didn’t shine, just like Fournette didn’t shine in this outdated system. Just like Gurley didn’t shine in Fisher’s outdated system (3.3ypc I think?).

It seems to me that to just take Hyde’s numbers and label him as inefficient so 100% definite, irrefutable unless the refuting person is an idiot…is forgetting a little context. Hyde has moved from very inefficient offense to very inefficient offense to very inefficient offense. Offenses of which Hyde was far from the only inefficient producer, with players that have been far more productive in other years. He truly has been moving from one bad situation (for efficiency metrics) to the next. He now goes to KC…a team with a scheme/coach that does NOT typically struggle with offensive efficiency, especially at RB. A team that flew Hyde in and had him sign a contract in (I believe) less than 24 total hours of his release. MAYBE enough time to get a physical done before they secured him.

Let’s just see what happens.

*Edited because inefficient was auto-corrected to efficient...or I just mistyped

[FantasyDumDum]

I don’t need to read any further than what you wrote about Breida being worse/less efficient in 2017...

Hyde 2017:
240/938yds, 3.9ypc, 8td. 88/59rec, 350yds, 5.9ypr, 0td.

Breida 2017:
105/465yds, 4.4ypc, 2td. 36/21rec, 180yds, 8.6ypr, 1td.


You can try to whip up wild narratives excusing Hyde’s terrible on field performance again and again and again across multiple offenses and schemes that are otherwise producing high end RB1s and 2 while he is barely playing at a backup level if that, but you can’t make up stats.

[Valhalla]

I don’t need to read any further than what you wrote about Breida being worse/less efficient in 2017...

Hyde 2017:
240/938yds, 3.9ypc, 8td. 88/59rec, 350yds, 5.9ypr, 0td.

Breida 2017:
105/465yds, 4.4ypc, 2td. 36/21rec, 180yds, 8.6ypr, 1td.


You can try to whip up wild narratives excusing Hyde’s terrible on field performance again and again and again across multiple offenses and schemes that are otherwise producing high end RB1s and 2 while he is barely playing at a backup level if that, but you can’t make up stats.

Your opinions aren't facts. You're right. You can't make up stats. You can certainly interpret them in various ways, though.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- ... plus-minus

According to the above article, Breida (and Marlon Mack) were the two most inefficient running backs on a per target level in the NFL in '17. Hyde has more drops faulted to him (one more), but on a much higher target count. Breida has more yards per reception, but dropped passes at a much higher percentage. You can interpret the stats to argue who was worse on your own. They were both bad.

What "wild narrative" was I whipping up? I thought my post was reasoned enough...do you think it's a wild narrative to say that the 49ers entire offense was inefficent? Or that Hue Jackson's or Doug Marrone's systems were inefficent? I guess that's too wild. Or maybe it's just wild because it opposes the "Damien is God" narrative...
PS I bought Damien recently. I'm just offering people some reasoned counters to your indisputable argumentative approach.

[PurpleHaze]

All I can say is that I'm a buyer right now at his current price. Just offered a mid 3rd rookie pick for him.