Carlos Hyde- what Gives? I thought this dude was toast!

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JFever
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Re: Hyde - what's he worth now?

Postby JFever » Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:43 pm

I think it was Billy Joel that said “ You may be right, You May be crazy”. I appreciate your edge. I sont disagree with some of your takes or logic. I guess I see it as you are fairly polarized on this one and you’ve clearly explained your reasons. I get ya. I myself don’t think I’m quite as polarized on the situation. I’m not quite as low on Hyde as I see the possible reasons both to how this situation may lead to him rejuvenating his career, and to what conditions may have led to his poorer performances in his past. I’m also not as quite as high on D.Williams. I see the potential for your optimism, there is plenty to possibly look forward to. He has upside in ppr leagues absolutely. but I see it as more likely that he and parts of that offense get adjusted to. I see a slight regression in Mahomes production and efficiency coming, and I also don’t have confidence in Williams durability with a heavy workload over a season.

I appreciate your clear explaination of your reasoning but I think the truth will be a Rb timeshare.
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Re: Hyde - what's he worth now?

Postby Valhalla » Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:15 pm

Barry Sanders only put up 283 yards and 1 TD on 65 targets one year...in his prime.
There are 289 RBs that have posted 65+ target seasons. Barry Sanders posted the 7th lowest yards per target, ranking 283/289. Believe it or not, two of the rbs that ranked lower than Sanders were Edgerine James and Steven Jackson. And yes Hyde was also below Sanders’ worst season, ranking 288/289. Edge has multiple seasons with pretty bad yards per target. Those guys all sucked. Or maybe context matters.

Edit- I’m NOT saying Hyde is as good as those guys. I’m just pointing out that stats can tell false narratives when context isn’t considered. Also...to a degree you have to consider that being targeted in itself is a sign of skill, or at minimum a sign of team trust. So is winning camp battles. Hyde has done both quite a bit. Winning team/coach trust is an unappreciated “skill” of sorts.
Last edited by Valhalla on Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Hyde - what's he worth now?

Postby Hottoddies » Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:22 pm

Valhalla wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:15 pm
Barry Sanders only put up 283 yards and 1 TD on 65 targets one year...in his prime.
There are 289 RBs that have posted 65+ target seasons. Barry Sanders posted the 7th lowest yards per completion, ranking 283/289. Believe it or not, two of the rbs that ranked lower than Sanders were Edgerine James and Steven Jackson. And yes Hyde was also below Sanders’ worst season, ranking 288/289. Edge has multiple seasons with pretty bad yards per target. Those guys all sucked. Or maybe context matters.
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Re: Hyde - what's he worth now?

Postby rschroeder1 » Thu May 02, 2019 9:58 am

FantasyDumDum wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:25 pm
I don’t need to read any further than what you wrote about Breida being worse/less efficient in 2017...

Hyde 2017:
240/938yds, 3.9ypc, 8td. 88/59rec, 350yds, 5.9ypr, 0td.

Breida 2017:
105/465yds, 4.4ypc, 2td. 36/21rec, 180yds, 8.6ypr, 1td.


You can try to whip up wild narratives excusing Hyde’s terrible on field performance again and again and again across multiple offenses and schemes that are otherwise producing high end RB1s and 2 while he is barely playing at a backup level if that, but you can’t make up stats.
Transparency note: I currently have Carlos Hyde and Darrel Williams for consideration in a keeper league entering '19.

Actually, narratives are pretty helpful. Analyzing players on the 49ers' offense in 2017 obviously has to take into account that the team switched quarterbacks after Game 11. There was a clear and obvious upgrade from CJ Beathard to Jimmy Garoppolo - remember Marquise Goodwin becoming a fantasy darling?

Breida 2017 with Beathard:
53 carries of 105 (50%), 231 yards, 4.35 YPC

Breida 2017 with Garoppolo:
52 carries of 105 (50%), 234 yards, 4.5 YPC, 1 TD

Hyde 2017 with Beathard:
157 carries of 240 (65%), 639 yards, 4.07 YPC

Hyde 2017 with Garoppolo:
83 carries of 240 (35%), 299 yards, 3.6 YPC

You could spin these numbers a variety of ways. Clearly, Breida was the change-of-pace back for the first 11 games. Generally, I don't think it makes sense to look at YPC as a comparison because COP backs have fresh legs.

In my opinion, Hyde actually deserves some credit for 4.07 YPC for the first 11 games on a laughable offense.

No doubt, Hyde's numbers declined in the last five games. Wear and tear? Breida fresher, a la CJ Anderson effect? I don't recall enough to draw a conclusion there.

Regarding the passing stats, the advanced stats aren't favorable to Hyde for '17. What sticks out to me, though, is that the 49ers kept throwing him the ball through the first 11 games - he led the team in targets for those games. If he was as bad as everyone is claiming, the only question I have is, WHY did they keep throwing him the ball? Stubbornness? Or do the coaches see something we're missing? I don't know.

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Re: Hyde - what's he worth now?

Postby Goddard » Thu May 02, 2019 10:08 am

Hyde isn't worth more than a 3rd, but that also doesn't mean Williams is guaranteed to be a RB1. I think both are probably being overhyped and don't really want either for the price I'd have to pay.

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Re: Hyde - what's he worth now?

Postby Metriculous » Thu May 02, 2019 10:31 am

Assuming that Williams is NOT the starter and jumping on this Hyde logic train is some sketchy business.

Here is the flowchart you should be following:

Hunt is gone

Williams was the starter and performed

Williams is the starter

Hyde was signed to backup or compete

Williams is the starter until he isn't

"What if they draft a rookie?" - Oh wait they didn't draft a rookie.

Williams is the starter until he isn't..................




So you are shocked that an old backup RB will only fetch a 3rd or 4th round pick?
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QB - A guy with only one or two good years left in the tank
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Re: Hyde - what's he worth now?

Postby rschroeder1 » Thu May 02, 2019 11:22 am

Metriculous wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 10:31 am
Assuming that Williams is NOT the starter and jumping on this Hyde logic train is some sketchy business.

Here is the flowchart you should be following:

Hunt is gone

Williams was the starter and performed

Williams is the starter

Hyde was signed to backup or compete

Williams is the starter until he isn't

"What if they draft a rookie?" - Oh wait they didn't draft a rookie.

Williams is the starter until he isn't..................

So you are shocked that an old backup RB will only fetch a 3rd or 4th round pick?
This isn't quite complete though.

After Hunt was released, Spencer Ware was the starter. Perhaps Reid and Veach got it all wrong, but for some reason, they preferred Ware. That should be a note of caution.

We don't know what the Chiefs' plans are for Hyde. It is fair to presume Williams the starter, since he finished last season as the starter.

The Chiefs did draft a running back. Yes, it's the sixth round, but did anyone really expect the Chiefs to spend major draft capital at RB with all their holes on defense? Let alone the Tyreek Hill situation.

As for Hyde's trade value, he's a one-year rental at best, presuming the Chiefs don't resign him.

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Re: Hyde - what's he worth now?

Postby ArrylT » Fri May 03, 2019 7:02 am

We are still months away from learning if the answer was hyding in plain sight or not. I think if you believe Hyde has a shot, even for say 3-4 games of relevance, it certainly is worth considering spending a 4th or perhaps a 3rd on him. All comes down to your risk tolerance, and capital you can afford to spend.
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Re: Hyde - what's he worth now?

Postby DelawareRiverEagles » Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:27 pm

FantasyDumDum wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:54 pm
Valhalla wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:34 pm
FantasyDumDum wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:48 pm
I understand you’re trying to offer some kind of devils advocate POV, but beware of these bleep analytics sites....
Can you direct me to where you got this?
“His receiving production has been historically bad. Despite medium and heavy target volume respectively in 2016 and 2017, he had THE WORST production per target at that volume of any RB in NFL history over that time.”

I’m genuinely curious to read it. Under what statistical circumstances/cutoffs does he become the worst of all time?

I don’t follow much of what ffoutsiders does, but I find it ironic that you called them a bleep analytics site and followed up your proof of it with an extrapolation from 21 receptions. Maybe be more open to other opinions. Even the famed Einstein listened to and debated with his colleagues, and was wrong from time to time. There are a lot of very smart people that disagree on a lot of things. Healthy debates don’t make them dumb.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... by=targets


88 or more targets in a season as an RB has happened 88 times in the last 26 years. Only 1 other player had lower ypr on that list on that target volume or more. (R Bush, 2007, 98 targets, 73 receptions, 417 yards, 5.7ypr, 2 TDs - still better overall production per target and per catch than Hyde, and that is pretty clearly the second worst season/player on the list - Hyde is a clear worst).

Carlos Hyde’s rank out of 88:
Receptions 85
Yards 88
YPR 87
TDs 85(tied for last)
Yards/Game 88(last)
Catch % 79
Yds/Target 88
Yeah, he shouldn't be used in the receiving game that much. He can bust off some nice runs, but for every 1 of those runs, he has like 2-3 duds where he goes backwards or has no gain at all.

I'm really surprised KC didn't draft a RB or go after someone like Yeldon or even Buck Allen.

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Carlos Hyde- what Gives? I thought this dude was toast!

Postby Hofbrau » Sun Dec 15, 2019 8:07 pm

Earlier this year, a couple of you guys were saying that he still could be ok in the right situation.
1000 yards rushing with 2 games to go. I guess you were right!

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Re: Carlos Hyde- what Gives? I thought this dude was toast!

Postby Lotto4Life » Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:16 pm

I benched him last minute in a father son redraft. Cost me 15 points. That hurt.

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Re: Carlos Hyde- what Gives? I thought this dude was toast!

Postby Phaded » Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:21 pm

It's almost like the teams he was on were part of the problem.

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Re: Carlos Hyde- what Gives? I thought this dude was toast!

Postby burntfire » Mon Dec 16, 2019 12:03 pm

His situation is perfect and the O-line has done well. It doesn't hurt with Duke Johnson giving him a break.
14 Team Super Flex, 1 PPR
QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1 Flex, 1 SFlex, 3 IR

QB: Matt Ryan, Sam Darnold, Mitchell Trubisky, Jake Luton
WR: Chris Godwin, A.J Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Jerry Jeudy, Will Fuller, Jalen Reagor, Allen Lazard, Travis Fulgham
RB: Kareem Hunt, Josh Jacobs, Ronald Jones, Marlon Mack, Joshua Kelley, Boston Scott, Deejay Dallas
TE: Robert Tonyan, Dissley, David Njoku, Jace Sternberger, Drew Sample, Gerald Everett

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Re: Carlos Hyde- what Gives? I thought this dude was toast!

Postby Goddard » Mon Dec 16, 2019 12:27 pm

The yardage has been nice, but in ppr leagues, he's still not someone I'd want to rely on. He's the RB24 and just barely averaging over 10 points per game. He's looked good in real life, but not necessarily someone I'd feel comfortable starting in fantasy.

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Re: Carlos Hyde- what Gives? I thought this dude was toast!

Postby Straycatz2 » Mon Dec 16, 2019 1:10 pm

Phaded wrote:
Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:21 pm
It's almost like the teams he was on were part of the problem.
Maybe like drake


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