Early 2020 rankings- top 12 WRs

[blemly]

I feel like it's absolutely pointless to try and "rank" WR's heading into next year. Never can I remember a more unusual season for WR production, and how you can basically categorize every top40 WR into one of 4 categories (in no particular order):

1. Veteran producer & borderline stud that you set & forget:
M. Thomas
D. Hopkins
D. Adams
T. Hill
J. Jones
M. Evans
K. Allen
A. Robinson
A. Cooper

2. Young, up-and-coming talents, but question marks about sustainability & elite traits:
C. Godwin
C. Kupp
K. Golladay
D.J. Moore
D.J. Chark
T. Lockett
D. Parker
C. Sutton
C. Ridley
T. Boyd
C. Kirk (??)
C. Samuel (??)
A. Miller (??)
M. Williams (??)

3. Veterans that are either uninspiring, on the decline, or coming off down seasons by their standards:
O. Beckham Jr.
J. Smith-Schuster
S. Diggs
T.Y. Hilton
A. Thielen
A.J. Green
S. Watkins
B. Cooks
R. Woods
J. Landry

4. Rookies who are balling out:
A.J. Brown
T. McLaurin
D.K. Metcalf
D. Samuel
M. Brown
D. Slayton

That covers most of the top40 (although I'm probably leaving out a few obvious names), and it's nearly pointless to debate which young, talented WR is more valuable than a producing veteran as it all depends on roster construction and owner's preference. Obviously, if you're young & rebuilding, try to stock-pile a bunch of guys from groups #2 & 3.

Not knocking the list, but wanted to point out that Diggs doesn’t belong in the 3rd category. This is his highest single-season yardage total of his career and we have 2 weeks to go.

Yeah, he's a tough one to place, but I'd argue he belongs in the 3rd category (disappointing) more than the 1st (set and forget).

He's WR #19 on the season despite Thielen missing half the year and with Cousins balling out. Considering Diggs had a 40 point game, I'd call the rest of his season a relative disappointment.

That's probably right, he just doesn't really fit into any of those Group 3 categories (not really a "vet" in the sense that the 29+ somethings are that made the list, not on the decline, and, for him, this season hasn't been a disappointment). I personally prefer players who offer higher floors that his has ever been, so he has never been a favorite of mine.

[Kmani6]

Don’t see why Allen Robinson is a set and forget either. He’s had a good season so far, but many terrible ones as well.

[sjcourtney56]

Don’t see why Allen Robinson is a set and forget either. He’s had a good season so far, but many terrible ones as well.

While you may not consider him set and forget (depends on roster), I have to disagree that Allen Robinson has had many terrible seasons.
His only 'down' years were:
2016 he had 883 and 6 tds...it isn't a wr1 season but it also isnt terrible and again it was with blake bortles
2017 he missed due to acl, I guess that is terrible but not due to his abilities
2018 was first season back from acl, new team, and mitch trubisky...he had 754 and 4 tds...not wr1 but with those factors considered, I would argue that it was not terrible.

[kmbryant09]

Don’t see why Allen Robinson is a set and forget either. He’s had a good season so far, but many terrible ones as well.

He's just 26 years old and has shown an elite ceiling and at least a serviceable floor (considering the quarterbacks he's played with).

Now fully healthy, he's been balling out all season and is up to WR #11 despite catching passes again from Trubisky.

[blemly]

Don’t see why Allen Robinson is a set and forget either. He’s had a good season so far, but many terrible ones as well.

While you may not consider him set and forget (depends on roster), I have to disagree that Allen Robinson has had many terrible seasons.
His only 'down' years were:
2016 he had 883 and 6 tds...it isn't a wr1 season but it also isnt terrible and again it was with blake bortles
2017 he missed due to acl, I guess that is terrible but not due to his abilities
2018 was first season back from acl, new team, and mitch trubisky...he had 754 and 4 tds...not wr1 but with those factors considered, I would argue that it was not terrible.

By that same token, how is OBJ not a set and forget WR? Less than a year older than Robinson, but with 3 more 1000k seasons than he has.

Both had a year effectively eliminated with a serious injury.

Both returned the next year to somewhat disappointing stats relative to their ability, but OBJ’s were clearly better:
A-Rob: 55-754-4
OBJ: 77-1052-6

Other than those first seasons back from injury, OBJ’s worst season is still leaps and bounds above:
A-Rob (not including rookie year): 73-883-6
OBJ (rookie): 91-1305-12

Hell, even this year their stats don’t look that different aside from TDs:
A-Rob: 83-1023-7
OBJ: 67-910-2

This just feels like recency bias at work.

[grandmabetty]

who the hell is Chark? did someone aquire a nickname and i didn't hear about it? I thought you guys were referring to DJ Clark but after the 11th guy misspelled it Chark i thought i might be missing something

[grandmabetty]

who the hell is Chark? did someone aquire a nickname and i didn't hear about it? I thought you guys were referring to DJ Clark but after the 11th guy misspelled it Chark i thought i might be missing something

Upon further inspection it appears I'm an idiot and didn't realize his name wasn't clark haha.

[StripesOfKC]

This one is the hardest since I think WR talent in the league is off the charts right now.
T1
MT
Hopkins

T2
Tyreek (would 100% be T1 and probably just behind MT if not for off field risk)
Adams (would be T1 if not for Rodgers declining and Lafleur's "score just barely enough to win" philosophy)
Evans

T2.5
Julio (just age really)

T3
OBJ (he is still OBJ but part of the blame for this year definitely falls on him; with that said, his situation will only improve)
Godwin
Amari Cooper
Moore
Sutton
Golladay (getting slept on hard - was WR6 with Stafford)

T4
Lockett
AJ Brown (love this guy)
ARob (elite talent in perpetually terrible situations)
Kupp (weird last few weeks but still good chemistry with Goff - would stay away from all Rams if I can help it though)
Keenan (would be T3 if QB situation was better)
Chark (guy is getting overlooked with all the other young WRs out there - but had a great year; only real drawback is the Jacksonville part)
Juju (still like the youth and Ben will help but people are making a ton of excuses for him this year - plenty of guys had bad QB situations and managed to produce: Juju did not - so he is like OBJ without the track record of being a number 1 WR)
Diggs (pretty overrated IMO but still reliable on season to season basis)
Kirk (major upside with Fitz likely retired)
Ridley (lower on him than most since he tends to disappear at times - so skeptical of him as a number 1 but Julio and Ryan being good to go next year means he should be solid)
Hilton (only old guy I'll put in this tier because he was solid before injury screwed him up this year)
Gallup (not the sexiest pick out of the young WR dept but quietly been a solid WR3 this year - would be more known if not for injury)
DK (production is good and so is the situation but I have not seen the growth in the route tree)
Deebo

T5
AJ Green (nice redraft value possibly but still an easy sell for me in dynasty if I can get decent value)
Thielen (this injury was really worrisome, especially as he climbs up in age)
Anthony Miller (good redraft target: hopefully people just remember the early disappointment but he has gotten a consistent dose of targets for weeks now and made the most out of them)
Robert Woods (also a really nice redraft target next year as he should be in for positive TD regression but again - I would avoid the Rams long term if possible)
John Brown (solid this year and Allen should continue to improve but a new rookie WR will cut into the targets - still a nice floor play but up there in age at this point)
McLaurin (team sucks and I still don't believe in Haskins; otherwise he would be low to mid T4)
Tyler Boyd and Curtis Samuel - both guys are getting slept on because of how their situations sucked this year; might be the best time to buy
Mecole Hardman (no Watkins next year but consistency will still be an issue)

Others to Consider:
Corey Davis: You laugh but I could see a new team getting the best out of him - maybe not what he was expected to be when drafted but definitely enough to crack this list
Diontae Johnson: Looked electric every time I saw the Steelers and Ben returning makes a Juju-like Year 2 leap possible
Devante Parker: I honestly have no idea what MIA will look like next year but there is definitely possible upside here
Marquise Brown: Like the talent and has run more types of routes year 1 than I expected but just not sure if he has the volume to be a trusted option by next year
Rookie WRs: too dependent on landing spot for me to rank at this point. If I had to guess though, I would have Lamb and Jeudy mid T4 and Ruggs, Shenault and maybe Higgins in T5

[BigBawseRoss]

man i despise some of these lists. lol

MT
Hopkins
Adams
Evans
Godwin
Moore
Allen
JuJu
Hill
Cooper
ARob
Sutton
KA honorable mention at 13

[JJRules]

man i despise some of these lists. lol

MT
Hopkins
Adams
Evans
Godwin
Moore
Allen
JuJu
Hill
Cooper
ARob
Sutton
KA honorable mention at 13

If KA is honorable mention, who's "Allen" up there at 7?

[bjd5211]

man i despise some of these lists. lol

MT
Hopkins
Adams
Evans
Godwin
Moore
Allen
JuJu
Hill
Cooper
ARob
Sutton
KA honorable mention at 13

If KA is honorable mention, who's "Allen" up there at 7?

You didn't hear? The Panthers are converting Kyle Allen to WR.

[mullmania]

Wanted to bump this now that we have new intel. Brady in Tampa, Diggs in Buffalo, D Hop in Zona

Any big changes to peoples rankings-takes?

[FantasyFreak]

Hopkins was never in my top 5 pre trade. He's now bordering top ten in a dynasty context for me. A long time friend/FF player and I discussed early last year that Hopkins did not look like the same player as years passed, and the advanced metrics support that. His inefficiency and inability to make plays down the field were apparent. New team, reduced off season program, QB downgrade, likely target share downgrade. Lots of WR's I'd like over him at this point, based on the make up of my teams.

Diggs in Buffalo also definitely drops him down my rankings. Inaccurate QB in a low volume pass attack.

Brady is a good addition for the Bucs WR's for me because I believe they were due for regression half way through the year last year. It was pretty obvious that type of play was not going to be repeated by Arians, it's just no way to play and win football games, and I was fairly confident Winston would not be back. Brady is a solid option, as his efficiency with help to minimize the regression they will face. The Bucs are a team that will still throw the ball a lot, and I think Brady's ability to read D's will put Evans and Godwin is good positions to continue to produce, albeit probably not to quite the same level as last year.

[AresGodOWar]

My top 10 are..

Tier 1 - M.Thomas
Tier 2 - Tyreek , Adams
Tier 2.5 - Hopkins
Tier 3 - Evans , Godwin , Kupp
Tier 4 - OBJ , Juju , DJ.Moore , Cooper , Golladay
Tier 5 - Julio , K.Allen , Sutton , AJ.Brown , A.Robinson , Diggs , Woods , Ridley , Boyd , Parker , Maybe a couple others

Hopkins - I'll drop him to the in between he can go either way , Arz is a high powered offence and Murray looks like he is going to be a super star, But there are more mouths to feed in Arz , And like FantasyFreak said no offseason programs will hurt the chemistry.

Evans and Godwin - I don't like Brady in TB , The reason why is Winston threw 30 ints so the team was always losing which meant more passing , I don't think Brady comes close to the amount of passing Winston did because the team will be winning more , Plus he loves short passing , I think he helps the RB , Howard and whoever plays slot the most.

OBJ - I think OBJ and Juju have a nice bounce back , The new coach in Cle should help the offence.
Juju - Ben back in Pitt should help Juju a lot.

Julio - I dropped Julio to tier 5 just because of age but I think he will still score in the top 5-7 points.
K.Allen - Dropped K.Allen down because he has Taylor for QB now , No more Rivers love.
Diggs - I think Diggs stays the same , While he might get less targets per game , He might have a better ypc because Allen has a cannon for a arm , he was one of the best deep ball QBs in the league.

Other then Tier 1 being pretty high over Tier 2 , I don't think the rest of the tiers are a huge difference from the next tier down though.

[CGW]

MT, Hill
Hopkins, Evans, Adams
Godwin, Juju
Everyone else at 8+.

I think Diggs is largely still in my everyone else tier. He's close, but until I see this being an improvement I'll assume it's not.

Hopkins is slowing down in general. I'm not really worried about Murray, but more so the lack of off season. Hopkins has done well with much worse situations/QBs.

Juju gets Ben back and will once again be a super young productive asset for as least one more year.

Both bucs WR will regress, but both will have solid years. Brady is an improvement from many aspects, especially when we look at extending drives and red zone opportunities. Mike Evans could see his best TD numbers, despite less downfield targets. Godwin will get his as he is still a super athletic pure route runner.

I'm not ready to annoint the hype players into the top 3 tiers yet. DJM is really close, I enjoy watching him. AJB looks like he has the makings of a stud. That said, he's in a low volume offense and put up unbelievable numbers on 54 receptions. I see regression for him and will be looking to buy if and when it happens. Currently people want the 1.01 if not more for him, which is an overvalue.