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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Posted: Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:40 pm
by Dynasty DeLorean
Not the most neatly formatted but here are the WR's in the database under 30% dominator with top 3 round draft pedigree. I highlighted the "hits" which I determined is multiple 1k yard seasons.

_Name___Dominator_Draft Pick
Andre Johnson 28.80% 1.03
Mike Williams 27.00% 1.07
Ted Ginn 28.50% 1.09
Santana Moss 24.80% 1.16
Jeremy Maclin 29.50% 1.19
Percy Harvin 21.40% 1.22
Laquon Treadwell 29.00% 1.23
Marquise Brown 26.20% 1.25
Kelvin Benjamin 29.30% 1.28
Cordarrelle Patterson 17.40% 1.29
Justin Hunter 27.20% 2.02
Deebo Samuel 27.20% 2.04
Devin Smith 26.80% 2.05
Curtis Samuel 29.00% 2.08
Eddie Royal 21.70% 2.11
Cody Latimer 27.40% 2.24
Mecole Hardman 18.70% 2.24
Devin Hester 1.10% 2.25
Aaron Dobson 26.10% 2.27
Parris Campbell 23.50% 2.27
Greg Little 10.90% 2.27
D.J. Chark 25.30% 2.29
Randall Cobb 28.20% 2.32
Jalen Hurd 24.00% 3.03
DeVier Posey 25.00% 3.05
T.J. Graham 23.10% 3.06
Chris Conley 29.30% 3.12
Terry McLaurin 17.70% 3.12
Austin Pettis 27.80% 3.14
Marquise Goodwin 13.60% 3.16
Jerrel Jernigan 21.80% 3.19
Brandon Tate 20.00% 3.19
Mike Wallace 29.60% 3.2
Braxton Miller 14.80% 3.22
Sammie Coates 29.50% 3.23
Taylor Price 25.10% 3.26
Andre Caldwell 28.20% 3.34
Brendan Langley 4.00% 3.37


Basically, you better pray Jeudy is a top 20 draft pick :pray:

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Posted: Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:54 pm
by bjd5211
Barring an injury or major off-field incident, I don't think there's any need to "pray" for him to go top 20.

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Posted: Sat Dec 07, 2019 7:17 pm
by alewilliam789
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:40 pm
Not the most neatly formatted but here are the WR's in the database under 30% dominator with top 3 round draft pedigree. I highlighted the "hits" which I determined is multiple 1k yard seasons.

_Name___Dominator_Draft Pick
Andre Johnson 28.80% 1.03
Mike Williams 27.00% 1.07
Ted Ginn 28.50% 1.09
Santana Moss 24.80% 1.16
Jeremy Maclin 29.50% 1.19
Percy Harvin 21.40% 1.22
Laquon Treadwell 29.00% 1.23
Marquise Brown 26.20% 1.25
Kelvin Benjamin 29.30% 1.28
Cordarrelle Patterson 17.40% 1.29
Justin Hunter 27.20% 2.02
Deebo Samuel 27.20% 2.04
Devin Smith 26.80% 2.05
Curtis Samuel 29.00% 2.08
Eddie Royal 21.70% 2.11
Cody Latimer 27.40% 2.24
Mecole Hardman 18.70% 2.24
Devin Hester 1.10% 2.25
Aaron Dobson 26.10% 2.27
Parris Campbell 23.50% 2.27
Greg Little 10.90% 2.27
D.J. Chark 25.30% 2.29
Randall Cobb 28.20% 2.32
Jalen Hurd 24.00% 3.03
DeVier Posey 25.00% 3.05
T.J. Graham 23.10% 3.06
Chris Conley 29.30% 3.12
Terry McLaurin 17.70% 3.12
Austin Pettis 27.80% 3.14
Marquise Goodwin 13.60% 3.16
Jerrel Jernigan 21.80% 3.19
Brandon Tate 20.00% 3.19
Mike Wallace 29.60% 3.2
Braxton Miller 14.80% 3.22
Sammie Coates 29.50% 3.23
Taylor Price 25.10% 3.26
Andre Caldwell 28.20% 3.34
Brendan Langley 4.00% 3.37


Basically, you better pray Jeudy is a top 20 draft pick :pray:
Yeah it depends on how you define hits. If you define it as top 24 PPR WRs that do that feat for multiple years the only one of those players that fits is Andre Johnspn. Andre Johnson’s Career Dominator Rating without injury years taken into account is 30% so even then he still had a good college career.

To say I’ve done a deep dive into this would be an understatement.

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Posted: Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:14 pm
by Hottoddies
Dominator Ratings of a couple of cherry-picked duds

Ashton Dulin 60.9%
Jordon Matthews 48.3%
Corey Coleman 44.2%
Josh Doctson 38.6%
Breshod Perriman 36.6%

And there are scores of other college WRs that have scored as high or higher that don't even make a NFL team. Are we to assume that they are better than Jerry Jeudy.

Dominator Rating basically tells you a players share of his team's production. No more. No less. It's not some magic predictive number. It's just a box you checkoff. And if a player's DR number seems to be a little low it bears farther investigation. In the context of Alabama's talented WRs it makes sense that Jeudy's numbers would be lower than other standout WRs.

*Edited to change Corey Davis to Corey Coleman. My bad

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Posted: Sat Dec 07, 2019 9:37 pm
by Zacsby
No it can not predict success. But it has predicted failure to a reasonable degree. Most exceptions to the "rule" even have easily identifiable circumstances to explain why they buck the trend. Whether it be injuries or transfers or whatever. Alabamas WR situation is pretty much unprecedented as far as i know which is why context and many other factors are still important!

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Posted: Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:34 pm
by alewilliam789
Hottoddies wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:14 pm
Dominator Ratings of a couple of cherry-picked duds

Ashton Dulin 60.9%
Jordon Matthews 48.3%
Corey Coleman 44.2%
Josh Doctson 38.6%
Breshod Perriman 36.6%

And there are scores of other college WRs that have scored as high or higher that don't even make a NFL team. Are we to assume that they are better than Jerry Jeudy.

Dominator Rating basically tells you a players share of his team's production. No more. No less. It's not some magic predictive number. It's just a box you checkoff. And if a player's DR number seems to be a little low it bears farther investigation. In the context of Alabama's talented WRs it makes sense that Jeudy's numbers would be lower than other standout WRs.

*Edited to change Corey Davis to Corey Coleman. My bad
Yeah that’s if you take Final year DR as the only factor. More things go into it like Breakout Age, Draft Capital, and combine performance. So yes by itself Final year DR isn’t a good indicator, but Juedy’s career Dominator Rating (average DR between all years in college without injury or seasons with few games played) aren’t good either.

He did Breakout young, he’s probably going to perform above average at the combine, and he’ll even get drafted early, but he doesn’t have good market share data to say the least.

Now if someone wants to work on the DR multiplier for WRs in ultra-competitive WR corps to adjust these numbers then totally let’s get it.
Maybe with the multiplier he eeks out with the other Alabama WRs.

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:54 am
by ebsteelers
i think its the breakout finder that has a teammate score . that would help with schools like Bama, LSU, Ohio st etc.

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:24 am
by purplepride28
I seem to remember the best WR in the nfl today Michael Thomas had the same knocks coming out of Ohio st. Not enough production. And low college dominator.
I think he turned out alright.

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:36 am
by Dynasty DeLorean
purplepride28 wrote:
Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:24 am
I seem to remember the best WR in the nfl today Michael Thomas had the same knocks coming out of Ohio st. Not enough production. And low college dominator.
I think he turned out alright.
80th percentile college dominator seems low to you?

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:30 pm
by alewilliam789
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:36 am
purplepride28 wrote:
Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:24 am
I seem to remember the best WR in the nfl today Michael Thomas had the same knocks coming out of Ohio st. Not enough production. And low college dominator.
I think he turned out alright.
80th percentile college dominator seems low to you?
Tell em brudda :geek:

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:59 pm
by Kmani6
He probably meant breakout age. He was right about MT's college production being poor, and his breakout age was in the 25th percentile, which is pretty terrible (age 21.5).

The reason I say this is because breakout age (When a WR first achieves 20% + college dominator) goes hand in hand with college dominator. Jerry Jeudy had a really early breakout age, but then couldn't vastly improve his college dominator above the original threshold, simply because he's playing with 3 other very talented WR's, which caps that ceiling.

It makes a lot of sense, and if you watch him play he really is quite special. He has been dominant throughout his entire football career - 3rd overall WR coming out of HS and now most likely 1st out of college.

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:20 pm
by Diti51
Couple thoughts. All regarding WRs
1. Ruggs may be better real life football than fantasy football player, which is great for him, but not if drafting him early in your fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts. why I am avoiding him. if I am wrong, so be it, but suspect someone will want/pick him higher then me
2. Dominator and breakout age to me helps you AVOID busts, especially when used in conjunction with draft capital
3. Combine above analytics with some scouting of game tape and perfect secret weapon.

Right now just mental masturbation until we see draft slot and landing spots. Nice mental exercise, but still a work in progress. especially since still have some pro days for some, including Dobbins at RB and Tee Higgins and others at WR

Just my two cents

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:28 pm
by honcho55
Diti51 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:20 pm
Couple thoughts. All regarding WRs
1. Ruggs may be better real life football than fantasy football player, which is great for him, but not if drafting him early in your fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts. why I am avoiding him. if I am wrong, so be it, but suspect someone will want/pick him higher then me
2. Dominator and breakout age to me helps you AVOID busts, especially when used in conjunction with draft capital
3. Combine above analytics with some scouting of game tape and perfect secret weapon.

Right now just mental masturbation until we see draft slot and landing spots. Nice mental exercise, but still a work in progress. especially since still have some pro days for some, including Dobbins at RB and Tee Higgins and others at WR

Just my two cents
I would like to politely request more elaboration on point #1.

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Posted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:51 pm
by Johnny B. Goode
Diti51 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:20 pm
Couple thoughts. All regarding WRs
1. Ruggs may be better real life football than fantasy football player, which is great for him, but not if drafting him early in your fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts. why I am avoiding him. if I am wrong, so be it, but suspect someone will want/pick him higher then me
2. Dominator and breakout age to me helps you AVOID busts, especially when used in conjunction with draft capital
3. Combine above analytics with some scouting of game tape and perfect secret weapon.

Right now just mental masturbation until we see draft slot and landing spots. Nice mental exercise, but still a work in progress. especially since still have some pro days for some, including Dobbins at RB and Tee Higgins and others at WR

Just my two cents
I have new analytics that support #2 can predict hits better than the average NFL hit rate... updated from the last link I sent you back in January. That thread should be updated with the new info... if not I can PM a link to the spreadsheet on googledocs

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Posted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:00 pm
by skinfanjon
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:51 pm
Diti51 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:20 pm
Couple thoughts. All regarding WRs
1. Ruggs may be better real life football than fantasy football player, which is great for him, but not if drafting him early in your fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts. why I am avoiding him. if I am wrong, so be it, but suspect someone will want/pick him higher then me
2. Dominator and breakout age to me helps you AVOID busts, especially when used in conjunction with draft capital
3. Combine above analytics with some scouting of game tape and perfect secret weapon.

Right now just mental masturbation until we see draft slot and landing spots. Nice mental exercise, but still a work in progress. especially since still have some pro days for some, including Dobbins at RB and Tee Higgins and others at WR

Just my two cents
I have new analytics that support #2 can predict hits better than the average NFL hit rate... updated from the last link I sent you back in January. That thread should be updated with the new info... if not I can PM a link to the spreadsheet on googledocs
No, you dont. You definitely dont.