2020 Class Advanced Metrics

[Zacsby]

I just got the data analysis package on playerprofiler and it appears to only include current NFL players. Maybe I'm missing something here but is there a similar tool/list where I can find dominator rating, breakout age, etc for current college players?
I NEED MORE DATAAAAAAAA

Thanks in advance!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Not until closer to the combine/draft

[alewilliam789]

I just got the data analysis package on playerprofiler and it appears to only include current NFL players. Maybe I'm missing something here but is there a similar tool/list where I can find dominator rating, breakout age, etc for current college players?
I NEED MORE DATAAAAAAAA

Thanks in advance!

DLF has the BAs for most of the guys. I have most of the data for the majority of prospects for DR. It’s all hand stuff, but it shouldn’t be off by more than 2-3%. Just PM me

[alewilliam789]

But if we want to talk about advanced metrics.


Phew Jerry Juedy’s last year is not great. He’s sitting at a 20.6% . It’s awful honestly

[Forza_Azzurri]

Anyone have data tracking the improvement of prospects 40 times from when they are recruited until they are evaluated for the draft?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

But if we want to talk about advanced metrics.


Phew Jerry Juedy’s last year is not great. He’s sitting at a 20.6% . It’s awful honestly

That would be really bad. The Josh Jacobs of receivers I guess

[alewilliam789]

But if we want to talk about advanced metrics.


Phew Jerry Juedy’s last year is not great. He’s sitting at a 20.6% . It’s awful honestly

That would be really bad. The Josh Jacobs of receivers I guess

Exactly! We still have at least a bowl game for Alabama so if he’s super dominant in that game 50%+ then he’ll eek out a 30% DR, but overall his analytical profile is more hype than substance at this point. Over his career he hasn’t been especially dominant either so it doesn’t really help his case.

[Hottoddies]

But if we want to talk about advanced metrics.


Phew Jerry Juedy’s last year is not great. He’s sitting at a 20.6% . It’s awful honestly

That would be really bad. The Josh Jacobs of receivers I guess

Exactly! We still have at least a bowl game for Alabama so if he’s super dominant in that game 50%+ then he’ll eek out a 30% DR, but overall his analytical profile is more hype than substance at this point. Over his career he hasn’t been especially dominant either so it doesn’t really help his case.

Haven't we learned anything from the case of Josh Jacobs about the importance of Dominator Rating?

[FantasyFreak]

But if we want to talk about advanced metrics.


Phew Jerry Juedy’s last year is not great. He’s sitting at a 20.6% . It’s awful honestly

That would be really bad. The Josh Jacobs of receivers I guess

Exactly! We still have at least a bowl game for Alabama so if he’s super dominant in that game 50%+ then he’ll eek out a 30% DR, but overall his analytical profile is more hype than substance at this point. Over his career he hasn’t been especially dominant either so it doesn’t really help his case.

I like Jeudy, but I do think he's over rated by some. I'd prefer a top back in this class over Jeudy, if I had the top pick in a rookie draft. Jeudy is still a good receiver, but amateur film analysis aside, I don't think he's a once in every few years player or anything. He's arguably the best WR in this class, but I don't think he'll be as highly rated in a few months as he was at the start of the college season, unless he blows the combine away, which I don't believe he will. If he runs a sub 4.4, then he could easily jump back up to where he was valued to begin the college year, though.

[Sriracha]

That would be really bad. The Josh Jacobs of receivers I guess

Exactly! We still have at least a bowl game for Alabama so if he’s super dominant in that game 50%+ then he’ll eek out a 30% DR, but overall his analytical profile is more hype than substance at this point. Over his career he hasn’t been especially dominant either so it doesn’t really help his case.

Haven't we learned anything from the case of Josh Jacobs about the importance of Dominator Rating?

DR is not as indicative of NFL success for RBs.

But DR needs to be measured in context. When you have 3 strong WRs (as is the case with Smith, Ruggs, Jeudy) they depress each others Dominator rating.

Shouldve learned this lesson several years ago with Jarvis Landry and OBJ

[bjd5211]

But DR needs to be measured in context. When you have 3 strong WRs (as is the case with Smith, Ruggs, Jeudy) they depress each others Dominator rating.

Shouldve learned this lesson several years ago with Jarvis Landry and OBJ

4* strong WRs, Waddle is a beast too.

[alewilliam789]

That would be really bad. The Josh Jacobs of receivers I guess

Exactly! We still have at least a bowl game for Alabama so if he’s super dominant in that game 50%+ then he’ll eek out a 30% DR, but overall his analytical profile is more hype than substance at this point. Over his career he hasn’t been especially dominant either so it doesn’t really help his case.

Haven't we learned anything from the case of Josh Jacobs about the importance of Dominator Rating?

I think you’ve brought this up before.
1. Why are we comparing two completely different positions?
2. There are almost no statistics that show that collegiate WRs with low DRs are productive in the NFL. Even with different circumstances more than 80% of the time studs still show out (30%+ DR) in their last year or at least show high level play throughout their career (30%+ Career Dominator Rating)

Commitees among RBs can drastically limit the touches that RBs can have and how dominant they can be. If you are the teams best WR you will most likely be on the field 80% of the time and if it’s low volume offense DR equalizes that factor because it’s based on the teams total passing and TDs.

Even some of the best WR prospect combos still hit these marks (30%+ DR and 50th%+ BA) including the AJ Brown and DK Metcalf combo from last year and OBJ and Laundry from 2014. I’m sure there’s more too.

The only conceivable argument somebody could make to me is that they don’t play throughout the entire game because their games are often blowouts, but even then most of the WR core plays well into the 3rd with the backup QB.

[bjd5211]

Even some of the best WR prospect combos still hit these marks (30%+ DR and 50th%+ BA) including the AJ Brown and DK Metcalf combo from last year and OBJ and Laundry from 2014. I’m sure there’s more too.

The only conceivable argument somebody could make to me is that they don’t play throughout the entire game because their games are often blowouts, but even then most of the WR core plays well into the 3rd with the backup QB.

Duo's sure, but I don't know if there has ever been a group of 4 WR's as productive as Jeudy, Ruggs, Smith and Waddle before; they all cut into each others production.

[Zacsby]

Yeah im very interested in seeing the numbers this year. Dont know much about how DR correlates to RBs but I've read a lot about how it correlates to WRs. Sitting on 1.01, 1.02 and then likely 5 straight picks on the 1-2 turn so im pretty ready to learn what i can now and then wait for the chips to fall.

I do believe the Bama WRs are kind of a special case. But this draft is so deep im gonna be making a lot of tough decisions regardless. Lol

[alewilliam789]

Exactly! We still have at least a bowl game for Alabama so if he’s super dominant in that game 50%+ then he’ll eek out a 30% DR, but overall his analytical profile is more hype than substance at this point. Over his career he hasn’t been especially dominant either so it doesn’t really help his case.

Haven't we learned anything from the case of Josh Jacobs about the importance of Dominator Rating?

DR is not as indicative of NFL success for RBs.

But DR needs to be measured in context. When you have 3 strong WRs (as is the case with Smith, Ruggs, Jeudy) they depress each others Dominator rating.

Shouldve learned this lesson several years ago with Jarvis Landry and OBJ

Now I can agree with this. If we could make a DR multiplier that we could multiply DRs by to calibrate the quality of talent around them. I was actually trying to figure a way to do this with small-school prospects because they often have sky-high DRs while also being fair.

The problems would come from these two questions:

1. How can we objectively define quality of teammates and talent around?

I would assume we could approach this from a market share perspective. So let’s say we have two WRs, and the WR we are scouting. If each of those players makes up some minimum designated DR rating (let’s say 20-30% for the WRs) from a receiving yardage standpoint then what we could do is say for every added player with a 20-30% DR that’s apart of the team we multiple the DR of the player we are scouting and the players in the corps by 1.X times the DR.

Where 1.X could be 1.5, 1.6, 1.7.

2. Finding a statistically relevant multiplier.

So to this yes we can multiply by 1.5 or 1.6, but does this actually give us an accurate representation of the adjusted market share of the WR in a competitive WR corps relative to players that were outright dominant by themselves?