2020 Class Advanced Metrics

[Johnny B. Goode]

Couple thoughts. All regarding WRs
1. Ruggs may be better real life football than fantasy football player, which is great for him, but not if drafting him early in your fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts. why I am avoiding him. if I am wrong, so be it, but suspect someone will want/pick him higher then me
2. Dominator and breakout age to me helps you AVOID busts, especially when used in conjunction with draft capital
3. Combine above analytics with some scouting of game tape and perfect secret weapon.

Right now just mental masturbation until we see draft slot and landing spots. Nice mental exercise, but still a work in progress. especially since still have some pro days for some, including Dobbins at RB and Tee Higgins and others at WR

Just my two cents

I have new analytics that support #2 can predict hits better than the average NFL hit rate... updated from the last link I sent you back in January. That thread should be updated with the new info... if not I can PM a link to the spreadsheet on googledocs

No, you dont. You definitely dont.

Hey look, my favorite stalker.

I do, I really do. I'm looking at it right now actually. in all its glory

[Sriracha]

I have new analytics that support #2 can predict hits better than the average NFL hit rate... updated from the last link I sent you back in January. That thread should be updated with the new info... if not I can PM a link to the spreadsheet on googledocs

No, you dont. You definitely dont.

Hey look, my favorite stalker.

I do, I really do. I'm looking at it right now actually. in all its glory

Link? I've seen a lot of data that points to Breakout Age/Dominator rating as important data points when taken in context with Draft Capital/Strength of Competition/Strength of teammates/Size Adjusted athleticism

Breakout Age/Dominator alone isn't very predictive... people like Ashton Dulin, Austin Carr, Justin Watson, Emanuel Butler (low draft capital, weak conference, etc) would see a much higher hit rate

[skinfanjon]

I have new analytics that support #2 can predict hits better than the average NFL hit rate... updated from the last link I sent you back in January. That thread should be updated with the new info... if not I can PM a link to the spreadsheet on googledocs

No, you dont. You definitely dont.

Hey look, my favorite stalker.

I do, I really do. I'm looking at it right now actually. in all its glory

Except your ability to interpret data is about as strong as your ability to comprehend the concerns of the Coronavirus. Or, ya know, decimal points.

[alewilliam789]

So after combing through athletic testing and putting together all the market share stats the crop really doesn’t look great. The two highest scoring players are going to be Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims as long as they go within the first 4 rounds.

Right now the top players that don’t qualify are:
Jerry Juedy (not even close, even if he’s drafted in the first)
Ceedee Lamb (unfortunately didn’t run in the agility drills and literally missed out by a point).
Henry Ruggs



Players that rank the highest:
Bryan Edwards
Denzel Mims

Players that will qualify as “stud” prospects if they get drafted in the 1st:
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor


Overall my system is a point score system with certain aspects (DR, BA, CDR, Athletic Testing, Draft Capital) that are each individually weighted that add up to a total point score. After testing my system with all the studs/prospects that have athletic testing, BAs, and accurate college info, I’ve successfully shown that this system identified 80% of all the stud WRs that have come into the NFL over the last 10+ years. A “stud” counts as a player to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production at the NFL level.
My thresholds for DR (30%+), BA (50th%+), and CDR (30%+) actually been established from both analyzing a ton of prospects and actually came from studies I’ve read from DLF/Playerprofile finding correlation with these values.
From a prediction standpoint, it has an overall hit rate on all WRs that have fit the stud profile of 76% (I don’t label a WR a bust until their 4th year in the NFL). I also don’t label you a bust if you have been a top 24 PPR WR once.

Most WRs get filtered out from the stud profile anyways due to not having a well-rounded profile so being a stud prospect is pretty selective in itself.

I have found tiers as well. So intuitively the better the prospect the higher they score. The highest tier of my system has a hit rate has a 85%+. The second tier has a hit rate of 77%. The last tier has a hit rate of 59%.

Overall what I’ve found useful is to figure out which prospects are studs and then watch tape to appropriately rank them.

After the draft, if it stills happens, I’ll finalize all the point score profiles for the WRs and report back here

[Johnny B. Goode]

No, you dont. You definitely dont.

Hey look, my favorite stalker.

I do, I really do. I'm looking at it right now actually. in all its glory

Link? I've seen a lot of data that points to Breakout Age/Dominator rating as important data points when taken in context with Draft Capital/Strength of Competition/Strength of teammates/Size Adjusted athleticism

Breakout Age/Dominator alone isn't very predictive... people like Ashton Dulin, Austin Carr, Justin Watson, Emanuel Butler (low draft capital, weak conference, etc) would see a much higher hit rate

I'll send you a link tomorrow. if I dont give me a PM to remind me

[Shankopotamus]

So after combing through athletic testing and putting together all the market share stats the crop really doesn’t look great. The two highest scoring players are going to be Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims as long as they go within the first 4 rounds.

Right now the top players that don’t qualify are:
Jerry Juedy (not even close, even if he’s drafted in the first)
Ceedee Lamb (unfortunately didn’t run in the agility drills and literally missed out by a point).
Henry Ruggs



Players that rank the highest:
Bryan Edwards
Denzel Mims

Players that will qualify as “stud” prospects if they get drafted in the 1st:
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor


Overall my system is a point score system with certain aspects (DR, BA, CDR, Athletic Testing, Draft Capital) that are each individually weighted that add up to a total point score. After testing my system with all the studs/prospects that have athletic testing, BAs, and accurate college info, I’ve successfully shown that this system identified 80% of all the stud WRs that have come into the NFL over the last 10+ years. A “stud” counts as a player to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production at the NFL level.
My thresholds for DR (30%+), BA (50th%+), and CDR (30%+) actually been established from both analyzing a ton of prospects and actually came from studies I’ve read from DLF/Playerprofile finding correlation with these values.
From a prediction standpoint, it has an overall hit rate on all WRs that have fit the stud profile of 76% (I don’t label a WR a bust until their 4th year in the NFL). I also don’t label you a bust if you have been a top 24 PPR WR once.

Most WRs get filtered out from the stud profile anyways due to not having a well-rounded profile so being a stud prospect is pretty selective in itself.

I have found tiers as well. So intuitively the better the prospect the higher they score. The highest tier of my system has a hit rate has a 85%+. The second tier has a hit rate of 77%. The last tier has a hit rate of 59%.

Overall what I’ve found useful is to figure out which prospects are studs and then watch tape to appropriately rank them.

After the draft, if it stills happens, I’ll finalize all the point score profiles for the WRs and report back here

Interested to see the results. You're doing God's work good sir

[Hottoddies]

So after combing through athletic testing and putting together all the market share stats the crop really doesn’t look great. The two highest scoring players are going to be Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims as long as they go within the first 4 rounds.

Right now the top players that don’t qualify are:
Jerry Juedy (not even close, even if he’s drafted in the first)
Ceedee Lamb (unfortunately didn’t run in the agility drills and literally missed out by a point).
Henry Ruggs



Players that rank the highest:
Bryan Edwards
Denzel Mims

Players that will qualify as “stud” prospects if they get drafted in the 1st:
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor

So if your three unqualified players(Juedy, Lamb, and Ruggs) are the first three WRs off the board in the NFL draft, would you still rank Edwards and Mims ahead of them as long as they are drafted in the top 4 rounds?

Overall my system is a point score system with certain aspects (DR, BA, CDR, Athletic Testing, Draft Capital) that are each individually weighted that add up to a total point score. After testing my system with all the studs/prospects that have athletic testing, BAs, and accurate college info, I’ve successfully shown that this system identified 80% of all the stud WRs that have come into the NFL over the last 10+ years. A “stud” counts as a player to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production at the NFL level.
My thresholds for DR (30%+), BA (50th%+), and CDR (30%+) actually been established from both analyzing a ton of prospects and actually came from studies I’ve read from DLF/Playerprofile finding correlation with these values.
From a prediction standpoint, it has an overall hit rate on all WRs that have fit the stud profile of 76% (I don’t label a WR a bust until their 4th year in the NFL). I also don’t label you a bust if you have been a top 24 PPR WR once.

Most WRs get filtered out from the stud profile anyways due to not having a well-rounded profile so being a stud prospect is pretty selective in itself.

I have found tiers as well. So intuitively the better the prospect the higher they score. The highest tier of my system has a hit rate has a 85%+. The second tier has a hit rate of 77%. The last tier has a hit rate of 59%.

Overall what I’ve found useful is to figure out which prospects are studs and then watch tape to appropriately rank them.

After the draft, if it stills happens, I’ll finalize all the point score profiles for the WRs and report back here

Just out of curiosity, do you consider all of the college WRs that meet these thresholds or just the ones who get drafted?

[lawilt]

alewilliam789: Do you have results from previous years that you could share?

[Cameron Giles]

Couple thoughts. All regarding WRs
1. Ruggs may be better real life football than fantasy football player, which is great for him, but not if drafting him early in your fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts. why I am avoiding him. if I am wrong, so be it, but suspect someone will want/pick him higher then me
2. Dominator and breakout age to me helps you AVOID busts, especially when used in conjunction with draft capital
3. Combine above analytics with some scouting of game tape and perfect secret weapon.

Right now just mental masturbation until we see draft slot and landing spots. Nice mental exercise, but still a work in progress. especially since still have some pro days for some, including Dobbins at RB and Tee Higgins and others at WR

Just my two cents

I have new analytics that support #2 can predict hits better than the average NFL hit rate... updated from the last link I sent you back in January. That thread should be updated with the new info... if not I can PM a link to the spreadsheet on googledocs

If you legitimately believe that (and you shouldn't), then why aren't NFL teams that spend a ton on analytics and scouting privy to these analytics?

[alewilliam789]

alewilliam789: Do you have results from previous years that you could share?

Yeah i gotta consolidate it so that you guys can get the results of the total post draft point scores without giving you guys the secret sauce. I have a huge spreadsheet with all the prospects/studs. Let me look into how i can do that

[grandmabetty]

So after combing through athletic testing and putting together all the market share stats the crop really doesn’t look great. The two highest scoring players are going to be Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims as long as they go within the first 4 rounds.

Right now the top players that don’t qualify are:
Jerry Juedy (not even close, even if he’s drafted in the first)
Ceedee Lamb (unfortunately didn’t run in the agility drills and literally missed out by a point).
Henry Ruggs



Players that rank the highest:
Bryan Edwards
Denzel Mims

Players that will qualify as “stud” prospects if they get drafted in the 1st:
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor


Overall my system is a point score system with certain aspects (DR, BA, CDR, Athletic Testing, Draft Capital) that are each individually weighted that add up to a total point score. After testing my system with all the studs/prospects that have athletic testing, BAs, and accurate college info, I’ve successfully shown that this system identified 80% of all the stud WRs that have come into the NFL over the last 10+ years. A “stud” counts as a player to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production at the NFL level.
My thresholds for DR (30%+), BA (50th%+), and CDR (30%+) actually been established from both analyzing a ton of prospects and actually came from studies I’ve read from DLF/Playerprofile finding correlation with these values.
From a prediction standpoint, it has an overall hit rate on all WRs that have fit the stud profile of 76% (I don’t label a WR a bust until their 4th year in the NFL). I also don’t label you a bust if you have been a top 24 PPR WR once.

Most WRs get filtered out from the stud profile anyways due to not having a well-rounded profile so being a stud prospect is pretty selective in itself.

I have found tiers as well. So intuitively the better the prospect the higher they score. The highest tier of my system has a hit rate has a 85%+. The second tier has a hit rate of 77%. The last tier has a hit rate of 59%.

Overall what I’ve found useful is to figure out which prospects are studs and then watch tape to appropriately rank them.

After the draft, if it stills happens, I’ll finalize all the point score profiles for the WRs and report back here

You must be fun to play FF with. Oh look everybody alewilliam won again

[alewilliam789]

So after combing through athletic testing and putting together all the market share stats the crop really doesn’t look great. The two highest scoring players are going to be Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims as long as they go within the first 4 rounds.

Right now the top players that don’t qualify are:
Jerry Juedy (not even close, even if he’s drafted in the first)
Ceedee Lamb (unfortunately didn’t run in the agility drills and literally missed out by a point).
Henry Ruggs



Players that rank the highest:
Bryan Edwards
Denzel Mims

Players that will qualify as “stud” prospects if they get drafted in the 1st:
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor

So if your three unqualified players(Juedy, Lamb, and Ruggs) are the first three WRs off the board in the NFL draft, would you still rank Edwards and Mims ahead of them as long as they are drafted in the top 4 rounds?

Overall my system is a point score system with certain aspects (DR, BA, CDR, Athletic Testing, Draft Capital) that are each individually weighted that add up to a total point score. After testing my system with all the studs/prospects that have athletic testing, BAs, and accurate college info, I’ve successfully shown that this system identified 80% of all the stud WRs that have come into the NFL over the last 10+ years. A “stud” counts as a player to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production at the NFL level.
My thresholds for DR (30%+), BA (50th%+), and CDR (30%+) actually been established from both analyzing a ton of prospects and actually came from studies I’ve read from DLF/Playerprofile finding correlation with these values.
From a prediction standpoint, it has an overall hit rate on all WRs that have fit the stud profile of 76% (I don’t label a WR a bust until their 4th year in the NFL). I also don’t label you a bust if you have been a top 24 PPR WR once.

Most WRs get filtered out from the stud profile anyways due to not having a well-rounded profile so being a stud prospect is pretty selective in itself.

I have found tiers as well. So intuitively the better the prospect the higher they score. The highest tier of my system has a hit rate has a 85%+. The second tier has a hit rate of 77%. The last tier has a hit rate of 59%.

Overall what I’ve found useful is to figure out which prospects are studs and then watch tape to appropriately rank them.

After the draft, if it stills happens, I’ll finalize all the point score profiles for the WRs and report back here

Just out of curiosity, do you consider all of the college WRs that meet these thresholds or just the ones who get drafted?

So i do consider all WRs, drafted/undrafted. In my system it’s actually near impossible to be considered a “stud” prospect as a undrafted player because you literally need perfect height adjusted athleticism and perfect college production. Generally, those players end up getting drafted. I think this overall agrees with reality considering only two undrafted players have ever become repeat top 24 PPR WRs in common era (Theilen & Doug Baldwin). Doug wouldn’t have qualified even if he was drafted. For 6-7th round players you don’t get negative points for draft capital like you would for undrafted status, you would get like 1-2 points.

And for the question about taking my top 3-4 WRs off the board, yes I actually have done that. If I’m drafting you with a top 6-10 pick you should at least give me a much higher probability at hitting a top stud player. From my studies anybody who doesn’t fit the profile only has around a 20% chance of ever hitting multiple times as a top 24 PPR WR, and even less if you siphon that down to top 10.

I loved AJ Brown’s tape/game and he qualified as a stud prospect so i drafted him. I also used the same deal to trade for both Gallup and Sutton cheap and lucked out. The whole point of the system isn’t to be the be-all-end-all, but to quantify who has the best chances and to rank accordingly. If you have a 70, nobody does in this class unless Edwards gets drafted 1st/2nd, you are a stud and you have the best chances of hitting.

[alewilliam789]

So after combing through athletic testing and putting together all the market share stats the crop really doesn’t look great. The two highest scoring players are going to be Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims as long as they go within the first 4 rounds.

Right now the top players that don’t qualify are:
Jerry Juedy (not even close, even if he’s drafted in the first)
Ceedee Lamb (unfortunately didn’t run in the agility drills and literally missed out by a point).
Henry Ruggs



Players that rank the highest:
Bryan Edwards
Denzel Mims

Players that will qualify as “stud” prospects if they get drafted in the 1st:
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor


Overall my system is a point score system with certain aspects (DR, BA, CDR, Athletic Testing, Draft Capital) that are each individually weighted that add up to a total point score. After testing my system with all the studs/prospects that have athletic testing, BAs, and accurate college info, I’ve successfully shown that this system identified 80% of all the stud WRs that have come into the NFL over the last 10+ years. A “stud” counts as a player to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production at the NFL level.
My thresholds for DR (30%+), BA (50th%+), and CDR (30%+) actually been established from both analyzing a ton of prospects and actually came from studies I’ve read from DLF/Playerprofile finding correlation with these values.
From a prediction standpoint, it has an overall hit rate on all WRs that have fit the stud profile of 76% (I don’t label a WR a bust until their 4th year in the NFL). I also don’t label you a bust if you have been a top 24 PPR WR once.

Most WRs get filtered out from the stud profile anyways due to not having a well-rounded profile so being a stud prospect is pretty selective in itself.

I have found tiers as well. So intuitively the better the prospect the higher they score. The highest tier of my system has a hit rate has a 85%+. The second tier has a hit rate of 77%. The last tier has a hit rate of 59%.

Overall what I’ve found useful is to figure out which prospects are studs and then watch tape to appropriately rank them.

After the draft, if it stills happens, I’ll finalize all the point score profiles for the WRs and report back here

You must be fun to play FF with. Oh look everybody alewilliam won again

No I’m still relatively new to fantasy and still have a lot to learn. Thankfully with this system though it has really helped my WR investments/fliers.

[alewilliam789]

How do you guys want to consolidate this? I’m not going to share my master spreadsheets because my secret sauce lies in there, but what I’m thinking is to create a spreadsheet with the point scores of all the players that fit the “stud” profile including prospects that have fit the profile with their scores, players that fulfilled the “stud” profile with the point scores, and misses/busts players that qualified with point scores, but never reached their potential.

I’ll try to include a hit rate counter for each tier, an overall hit rate counter, and miss counter. Right now the miss counter sits around 20-21%, with my system identifying 80% of all the players ever to go on to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production and my highest point score tier (70 or above) hitting 80+% of the time.

[Johnny B. Goode]

How do you guys want to consolidate this? I’m not going to share my master spreadsheets because my secret sauce lies in there, but what I’m thinking is to create a spreadsheet with the point scores of all the players that fit the “stud” profile including prospects that have fit the profile with their scores, players that fulfilled the “stud” profile with the point scores, and misses/busts players that qualified with point scores, but never reached their potential.

I’ll try to include a hit rate counter for each tier, an overall hit rate counter, and miss counter. Right now the miss counter sits around 20-21%, with my system identifying 80% of all the players ever to go on to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production and my highest point score tier (70 or above) hitting 80+% of the time.

Do what I do with spreadsheet- protect it and then add it as a google doc, then you can share it without exposing any of the details of the cells. people can see what you want them to see only

I'm working on a secret sauce of sorts using my data points to give value to the raw scores... having fun with it so far.