So after combing through athletic testing and putting together all the market share stats the crop really doesn’t look great. The two highest scoring players are going to be Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims as long as they go within the first 4 rounds.
Right now the top players that don’t qualify are:
Jerry Juedy (not even close, even if he’s drafted in the first)
Ceedee Lamb (unfortunately didn’t run in the agility drills and literally missed out by a point).
Players that rank the highest:
Players that will qualify as “stud” prospects if they get drafted in the 1st:
Overall my system is a point score system with certain aspects (DR, BA, CDR, Athletic Testing, Draft Capital) that are each individually weighted that add up to a total point score. After testing my system with all the studs/prospects that have athletic testing, BAs, and accurate college info, I’ve successfully shown that this system identified 80% of all the stud WRs that have come into the NFL over the last 10+ years. A “stud” counts as a player to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production at the NFL level.
My thresholds for DR (30%+), BA (50th%+), and CDR (30%+) actually been established from both analyzing a ton of prospects and actually came from studies I’ve read from DLF/Playerprofile finding correlation with these values.
From a prediction standpoint, it has an overall hit rate on all WRs that have fit the stud profile of 76% (I don’t label a WR a bust until their 4th year in the NFL). I also don’t label you a bust if you have been a top 24 PPR WR once.
Most WRs get filtered out from the stud profile anyways due to not having a well-rounded profile so being a stud prospect is pretty selective in itself.
I have found tiers as well. So intuitively the better the prospect the higher they score. The highest tier of my system has a hit rate has a 85%+. The second tier has a hit rate of 77%. The last tier has a hit rate of 59%.
Overall what I’ve found useful is to figure out which prospects are studs and then watch tape to appropriately rank them.
After the draft, if it stills happens, I’ll finalize all the point score profiles for the WRs and report back here
12 Owner 1 PPR (4th Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
QB - Watson, Prescott, Carr
WR - Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Josh Reynolds, Justin Watson, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
RB - Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs
TE - T.J. Hockenson, I Thomas, J. Oliver
12 Owner 1 PPR (3rd Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
RB: David Johnson, Mixon, Hyde
WR: Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Josh Reynolds, Andy Isabella
TE: Kittle, OJ Howard, Chris Herndon
1st and 3rd
12 Owner 1 PPR (1st Season) 1QB 1-3 RB 1-3 WR 1-2 TE
1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
QB: Mahomes, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Guice, Penny, Duke Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR: Landry, Sutton, Marvin Jones, Harry, Crowder, Josh Reynolds
TE: Hooper, Goedert
2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd Round Picks