2020 Class Advanced Metrics

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
Johnny B. Goode
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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:48 pm

skinfanjon wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:00 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:51 pm
Diti51 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:20 pm
Couple thoughts. All regarding WRs
1. Ruggs may be better real life football than fantasy football player, which is great for him, but not if drafting him early in your fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts. why I am avoiding him. if I am wrong, so be it, but suspect someone will want/pick him higher then me
2. Dominator and breakout age to me helps you AVOID busts, especially when used in conjunction with draft capital
3. Combine above analytics with some scouting of game tape and perfect secret weapon.

Right now just mental masturbation until we see draft slot and landing spots. Nice mental exercise, but still a work in progress. especially since still have some pro days for some, including Dobbins at RB and Tee Higgins and others at WR

Just my two cents
I have new analytics that support #2 can predict hits better than the average NFL hit rate... updated from the last link I sent you back in January. That thread should be updated with the new info... if not I can PM a link to the spreadsheet on googledocs
No, you dont. You definitely dont.
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I do, I really do. I'm looking at it right now actually. in all its glory
12 team PPR
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor (R), Dobbins (R), Henderson, R. Anderson,
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Miller
TE: Engram, Hockenson, I Thomas, Warring
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR
QB: Darnold, Bridgewater, Stidham (TX)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Jackson, Ballage, Murray, Samuels, B Hill, Henderson (TX), Ozigbo (TX), Gaskin (TX)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, Lazard, Isabella (TX), P. Williams (TX), JJAW (TX), Doss (TX), S. Miller (TX)
TE: Rudolph, Graham, Sternberger (TX)
K:
DEF: LAR
Picks: 1.1, 1.3, 2.4, 5.7, 2021 1, 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 2, 2021 4, 2021 5

IZigUZag
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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby IZigUZag » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:23 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:48 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:00 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:51 pm


I have new analytics that support #2 can predict hits better than the average NFL hit rate... updated from the last link I sent you back in January. That thread should be updated with the new info... if not I can PM a link to the spreadsheet on googledocs
No, you dont. You definitely dont.
Hey look, my favorite stalker.

I do, I really do. I'm looking at it right now actually. in all its glory
Link? I've seen a lot of data that points to Breakout Age/Dominator rating as important data points when taken in context with Draft Capital/Strength of Competition/Strength of teammates/Size Adjusted athleticism

Breakout Age/Dominator alone isn't very predictive... people like Ashton Dulin, Austin Carr, Justin Watson, Emanuel Butler (low draft capital, weak conference, etc) would see a much higher hit rate

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby skinfanjon » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:24 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:48 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:00 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:51 pm


I have new analytics that support #2 can predict hits better than the average NFL hit rate... updated from the last link I sent you back in January. That thread should be updated with the new info... if not I can PM a link to the spreadsheet on googledocs
No, you dont. You definitely dont.
Hey look, my favorite stalker.

I do, I really do. I'm looking at it right now actually. in all its glory
Except your ability to interpret data is about as strong as your ability to comprehend the concerns of the Coronavirus. Or, ya know, decimal points.

alewilliam789
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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby alewilliam789 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:55 am

So after combing through athletic testing and putting together all the market share stats the crop really doesn’t look great. The two highest scoring players are going to be Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims as long as they go within the first 4 rounds.

Right now the top players that don’t qualify are:
Jerry Juedy (not even close, even if he’s drafted in the first)
Ceedee Lamb (unfortunately didn’t run in the agility drills and literally missed out by a point).
Henry Ruggs



Players that rank the highest:
Bryan Edwards
Denzel Mims

Players that will qualify as “stud” prospects if they get drafted in the 1st:
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor


Overall my system is a point score system with certain aspects (DR, BA, CDR, Athletic Testing, Draft Capital) that are each individually weighted that add up to a total point score. After testing my system with all the studs/prospects that have athletic testing, BAs, and accurate college info, I’ve successfully shown that this system identified 80% of all the stud WRs that have come into the NFL over the last 10+ years. A “stud” counts as a player to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production at the NFL level.
My thresholds for DR (30%+), BA (50th%+), and CDR (30%+) actually been established from both analyzing a ton of prospects and actually came from studies I’ve read from DLF/Playerprofile finding correlation with these values.
From a prediction standpoint, it has an overall hit rate on all WRs that have fit the stud profile of 76% (I don’t label a WR a bust until their 4th year in the NFL). I also don’t label you a bust if you have been a top 24 PPR WR once.

Most WRs get filtered out from the stud profile anyways due to not having a well-rounded profile so being a stud prospect is pretty selective in itself.

I have found tiers as well. So intuitively the better the prospect the higher they score. The highest tier of my system has a hit rate has a 85%+. The second tier has a hit rate of 77%. The last tier has a hit rate of 59%.

Overall what I’ve found useful is to figure out which prospects are studs and then watch tape to appropriately rank them.

After the draft, if it stills happens, I’ll finalize all the point score profiles for the WRs and report back here
12 Owner 1 PPR (4th Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 7-6
QB - Watson, Prescott, Carr
WR - Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Josh Reynolds, Justin Watson, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
RB - Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs
TE - T.J. Hockenson, I Thomas, J. Oliver

Picks:
2020-
1.05, 3.06


12 Owner 1 PPR (3rd Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 6-7
QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
RB: David Johnson, Mixon, Hyde
WR: Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Josh Reynolds, Andy Isabella
TE: Kittle, OJ Howard, Chris Herndon

Picks:
2020-
1st and 3rd

12 Owner 1 PPR (1st Season) 1QB 1-3 RB 1-3 WR 1-2 TE
1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
Record: 7-6
QB: Mahomes, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Guice, Penny, Duke Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR: Landry, Sutton, Marvin Jones, Harry, Crowder, Josh Reynolds
TE: Hooper, Goedert

2020:
2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd Round Picks

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:27 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:23 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:48 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:00 pm


No, you dont. You definitely dont.
Hey look, my favorite stalker.

I do, I really do. I'm looking at it right now actually. in all its glory
Link? I've seen a lot of data that points to Breakout Age/Dominator rating as important data points when taken in context with Draft Capital/Strength of Competition/Strength of teammates/Size Adjusted athleticism

Breakout Age/Dominator alone isn't very predictive... people like Ashton Dulin, Austin Carr, Justin Watson, Emanuel Butler (low draft capital, weak conference, etc) would see a much higher hit rate
I'll send you a link tomorrow. if I dont give me a PM to remind me
12 team PPR
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor (R), Dobbins (R), Henderson, R. Anderson,
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Miller
TE: Engram, Hockenson, I Thomas, Warring
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR
QB: Darnold, Bridgewater, Stidham (TX)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Jackson, Ballage, Murray, Samuels, B Hill, Henderson (TX), Ozigbo (TX), Gaskin (TX)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, Lazard, Isabella (TX), P. Williams (TX), JJAW (TX), Doss (TX), S. Miller (TX)
TE: Rudolph, Graham, Sternberger (TX)
K:
DEF: LAR
Picks: 1.1, 1.3, 2.4, 5.7, 2021 1, 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 2, 2021 4, 2021 5

Shankopotamus
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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Shankopotamus » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:31 pm

alewilliam789 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:55 am
So after combing through athletic testing and putting together all the market share stats the crop really doesn’t look great. The two highest scoring players are going to be Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims as long as they go within the first 4 rounds.

Right now the top players that don’t qualify are:
Jerry Juedy (not even close, even if he’s drafted in the first)
Ceedee Lamb (unfortunately didn’t run in the agility drills and literally missed out by a point).
Henry Ruggs



Players that rank the highest:
Bryan Edwards
Denzel Mims

Players that will qualify as “stud” prospects if they get drafted in the 1st:
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor


Overall my system is a point score system with certain aspects (DR, BA, CDR, Athletic Testing, Draft Capital) that are each individually weighted that add up to a total point score. After testing my system with all the studs/prospects that have athletic testing, BAs, and accurate college info, I’ve successfully shown that this system identified 80% of all the stud WRs that have come into the NFL over the last 10+ years. A “stud” counts as a player to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production at the NFL level.
My thresholds for DR (30%+), BA (50th%+), and CDR (30%+) actually been established from both analyzing a ton of prospects and actually came from studies I’ve read from DLF/Playerprofile finding correlation with these values.
From a prediction standpoint, it has an overall hit rate on all WRs that have fit the stud profile of 76% (I don’t label a WR a bust until their 4th year in the NFL). I also don’t label you a bust if you have been a top 24 PPR WR once.

Most WRs get filtered out from the stud profile anyways due to not having a well-rounded profile so being a stud prospect is pretty selective in itself.

I have found tiers as well. So intuitively the better the prospect the higher they score. The highest tier of my system has a hit rate has a 85%+. The second tier has a hit rate of 77%. The last tier has a hit rate of 59%.

Overall what I’ve found useful is to figure out which prospects are studs and then watch tape to appropriately rank them.

After the draft, if it stills happens, I’ll finalize all the point score profiles for the WRs and report back here
Interested to see the results. You're doing God's work good sir
12 Team Super-Flex Dynasty (2019 Runner-Up)
1 QB, 3 RB, 4 WR, Flex, SF, 2 TE, IDP

QB- Tom Brady, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Andy Dalton, Josh Rosen, Ryan Finley
RB- Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Le'veon Bell, Tarek Cohen, Gus Edwards, Bryce Love, Bo Scarborough, Mike Boone
WR- DJ Moore, Allen Robinson, Robert Woods, DK Metcalf, N'Keal Harry, Preston Williams, Hollywood Brown, Jalen Hurd, Martavis Bryant, Malik Turner
TE-Jared Cook, Mark Andrews, Noah Fant, Hayden Hurst
DL-Chris Jones, Deforest Buckner, Jonathon Allen, Akeim Hicks
LB-Alec Ogletree, Zach Cunningham, Jayon Brown, Rashaan Evans, Devin White, Devin Bush
DB-John Johnson, Bradley Mcdougald, Eric Reid, Taylor Rapp,Jalen Thompson
K-Chase McLaughlin

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Hottoddies
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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Hottoddies » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:43 am

alewilliam789 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:55 am
So after combing through athletic testing and putting together all the market share stats the crop really doesn’t look great. The two highest scoring players are going to be Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims as long as they go within the first 4 rounds.

Right now the top players that don’t qualify are:
Jerry Juedy (not even close, even if he’s drafted in the first)
Ceedee Lamb (unfortunately didn’t run in the agility drills and literally missed out by a point).
Henry Ruggs



Players that rank the highest:
Bryan Edwards
Denzel Mims

Players that will qualify as “stud” prospects if they get drafted in the 1st:
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor
So if your three unqualified players(Juedy, Lamb, and Ruggs) are the first three WRs off the board in the NFL draft, would you still rank Edwards and Mims ahead of them as long as they are drafted in the top 4 rounds?
alewilliam789 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:55 am
Overall my system is a point score system with certain aspects (DR, BA, CDR, Athletic Testing, Draft Capital) that are each individually weighted that add up to a total point score. After testing my system with all the studs/prospects that have athletic testing, BAs, and accurate college info, I’ve successfully shown that this system identified 80% of all the stud WRs that have come into the NFL over the last 10+ years. A “stud” counts as a player to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production at the NFL level.
My thresholds for DR (30%+), BA (50th%+), and CDR (30%+) actually been established from both analyzing a ton of prospects and actually came from studies I’ve read from DLF/Playerprofile finding correlation with these values.
From a prediction standpoint, it has an overall hit rate on all WRs that have fit the stud profile of 76%
(I don’t label a WR a bust until their 4th year in the NFL). I also don’t label you a bust if you have been a top 24 PPR WR once.

Most WRs get filtered out from the stud profile anyways due to not having a well-rounded profile so being a stud prospect is pretty selective in itself.

I have found tiers as well. So intuitively the better the prospect the higher they score. The highest tier of my system has a hit rate has a 85%+. The second tier has a hit rate of 77%. The last tier has a hit rate of 59%.

Overall what I’ve found useful is to figure out which prospects are studs and then watch tape to appropriately rank them.

After the draft, if it stills happens, I’ll finalize all the point score profiles for the WRs and report back here
Just out of curiosity, do you consider all of the college WRs that meet these thresholds or just the ones who get drafted?
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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby lawilt » Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:25 am

alewilliam789: Do you have results from previous years that you could share?

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:21 am

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:51 pm
Diti51 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:20 pm
Couple thoughts. All regarding WRs
1. Ruggs may be better real life football than fantasy football player, which is great for him, but not if drafting him early in your fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts. why I am avoiding him. if I am wrong, so be it, but suspect someone will want/pick him higher then me
2. Dominator and breakout age to me helps you AVOID busts, especially when used in conjunction with draft capital
3. Combine above analytics with some scouting of game tape and perfect secret weapon.

Right now just mental masturbation until we see draft slot and landing spots. Nice mental exercise, but still a work in progress. especially since still have some pro days for some, including Dobbins at RB and Tee Higgins and others at WR

Just my two cents
I have new analytics that support #2 can predict hits better than the average NFL hit rate... updated from the last link I sent you back in January. That thread should be updated with the new info... if not I can PM a link to the spreadsheet on googledocs
If you legitimately believe that (and you shouldn't), then why aren't NFL teams that spend a ton on analytics and scouting privy to these analytics?

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby alewilliam789 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:30 pm

lawilt wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:25 am
alewilliam789: Do you have results from previous years that you could share?
Yeah i gotta consolidate it so that you guys can get the results of the total post draft point scores without giving you guys the secret sauce. I have a huge spreadsheet with all the prospects/studs. Let me look into how i can do that
12 Owner 1 PPR (4th Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 7-6
QB - Watson, Prescott, Carr
WR - Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Josh Reynolds, Justin Watson, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
RB - Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs
TE - T.J. Hockenson, I Thomas, J. Oliver

Picks:
2020-
1.05, 3.06


12 Owner 1 PPR (3rd Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 6-7
QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
RB: David Johnson, Mixon, Hyde
WR: Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Josh Reynolds, Andy Isabella
TE: Kittle, OJ Howard, Chris Herndon

Picks:
2020-
1st and 3rd

12 Owner 1 PPR (1st Season) 1QB 1-3 RB 1-3 WR 1-2 TE
1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
Record: 7-6
QB: Mahomes, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Guice, Penny, Duke Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR: Landry, Sutton, Marvin Jones, Harry, Crowder, Josh Reynolds
TE: Hooper, Goedert

2020:
2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd Round Picks

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby grandmabetty » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:02 am

alewilliam789 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:55 am
So after combing through athletic testing and putting together all the market share stats the crop really doesn’t look great. The two highest scoring players are going to be Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims as long as they go within the first 4 rounds.

Right now the top players that don’t qualify are:
Jerry Juedy (not even close, even if he’s drafted in the first)
Ceedee Lamb (unfortunately didn’t run in the agility drills and literally missed out by a point).
Henry Ruggs



Players that rank the highest:
Bryan Edwards
Denzel Mims

Players that will qualify as “stud” prospects if they get drafted in the 1st:
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor


Overall my system is a point score system with certain aspects (DR, BA, CDR, Athletic Testing, Draft Capital) that are each individually weighted that add up to a total point score. After testing my system with all the studs/prospects that have athletic testing, BAs, and accurate college info, I’ve successfully shown that this system identified 80% of all the stud WRs that have come into the NFL over the last 10+ years. A “stud” counts as a player to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production at the NFL level.
My thresholds for DR (30%+), BA (50th%+), and CDR (30%+) actually been established from both analyzing a ton of prospects and actually came from studies I’ve read from DLF/Playerprofile finding correlation with these values.
From a prediction standpoint, it has an overall hit rate on all WRs that have fit the stud profile of 76% (I don’t label a WR a bust until their 4th year in the NFL). I also don’t label you a bust if you have been a top 24 PPR WR once.

Most WRs get filtered out from the stud profile anyways due to not having a well-rounded profile so being a stud prospect is pretty selective in itself.

I have found tiers as well. So intuitively the better the prospect the higher they score. The highest tier of my system has a hit rate has a 85%+. The second tier has a hit rate of 77%. The last tier has a hit rate of 59%.

Overall what I’ve found useful is to figure out which prospects are studs and then watch tape to appropriately rank them.

After the draft, if it stills happens, I’ll finalize all the point score profiles for the WRs and report back here
You must be fun to play FF with. Oh look everybody alewilliam won again :D
ppr, 10 team, 6 pt all td, 40 man roster QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, 2 Flex (r/w/t), K, IDP
Qb- Kyler Murray, cousins, Roethlisberger
RB- Melvin Gordon, Kamara, CMC, Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, Justin Jackson, Bryce Love
WR- Mike Evans, tyreek hill, Davante Adams, Juju Smith-Shuster, robert woods,Tyler Boyd, Stills, Paris Campbell, Hollywood brown, Perriman,
TE- kelce, Greg Olsen, Tyler Higbee,
DT - Chris Jones
DE - Demarcus Lawrence, Chandler Jones
LB - Blake Martinez, Bobby Wagner, Todd Davis, Greenlaw, nick kwiatkoski, Ruben foster
CB - NONE
S - Landon Collins, John Johnson III, Antoine Bethea, eric reid

2020 1st rd (0)
2020 2nd rd (0)
2020 3rd (0)
2020 4th (0)
2020 5th (1)

alewilliam789
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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby alewilliam789 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:38 am

Hottoddies wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:43 am
alewilliam789 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:55 am
So after combing through athletic testing and putting together all the market share stats the crop really doesn’t look great. The two highest scoring players are going to be Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims as long as they go within the first 4 rounds.

Right now the top players that don’t qualify are:
Jerry Juedy (not even close, even if he’s drafted in the first)
Ceedee Lamb (unfortunately didn’t run in the agility drills and literally missed out by a point).
Henry Ruggs



Players that rank the highest:
Bryan Edwards
Denzel Mims

Players that will qualify as “stud” prospects if they get drafted in the 1st:
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor
So if your three unqualified players(Juedy, Lamb, and Ruggs) are the first three WRs off the board in the NFL draft, would you still rank Edwards and Mims ahead of them as long as they are drafted in the top 4 rounds?
alewilliam789 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:55 am
Overall my system is a point score system with certain aspects (DR, BA, CDR, Athletic Testing, Draft Capital) that are each individually weighted that add up to a total point score. After testing my system with all the studs/prospects that have athletic testing, BAs, and accurate college info, I’ve successfully shown that this system identified 80% of all the stud WRs that have come into the NFL over the last 10+ years. A “stud” counts as a player to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production at the NFL level.
My thresholds for DR (30%+), BA (50th%+), and CDR (30%+) actually been established from both analyzing a ton of prospects and actually came from studies I’ve read from DLF/Playerprofile finding correlation with these values.
From a prediction standpoint, it has an overall hit rate on all WRs that have fit the stud profile of 76%
(I don’t label a WR a bust until their 4th year in the NFL). I also don’t label you a bust if you have been a top 24 PPR WR once.

Most WRs get filtered out from the stud profile anyways due to not having a well-rounded profile so being a stud prospect is pretty selective in itself.

I have found tiers as well. So intuitively the better the prospect the higher they score. The highest tier of my system has a hit rate has a 85%+. The second tier has a hit rate of 77%. The last tier has a hit rate of 59%.

Overall what I’ve found useful is to figure out which prospects are studs and then watch tape to appropriately rank them.

After the draft, if it stills happens, I’ll finalize all the point score profiles for the WRs and report back here
Just out of curiosity, do you consider all of the college WRs that meet these thresholds or just the ones who get drafted?
So i do consider all WRs, drafted/undrafted. In my system it’s actually near impossible to be considered a “stud” prospect as a undrafted player because you literally need perfect height adjusted athleticism and perfect college production. Generally, those players end up getting drafted. I think this overall agrees with reality considering only two undrafted players have ever become repeat top 24 PPR WRs in common era (Theilen & Doug Baldwin). Doug wouldn’t have qualified even if he was drafted. For 6-7th round players you don’t get negative points for draft capital like you would for undrafted status, you would get like 1-2 points.

And for the question about taking my top 3-4 WRs off the board, yes I actually have done that. If I’m drafting you with a top 6-10 pick you should at least give me a much higher probability at hitting a top stud player. From my studies anybody who doesn’t fit the profile only has around a 20% chance of ever hitting multiple times as a top 24 PPR WR, and even less if you siphon that down to top 10.

I loved AJ Brown’s tape/game and he qualified as a stud prospect so i drafted him. I also used the same deal to trade for both Gallup and Sutton cheap and lucked out. The whole point of the system isn’t to be the be-all-end-all, but to quantify who has the best chances and to rank accordingly. If you have a 70, nobody does in this class unless Edwards gets drafted 1st/2nd, you are a stud and you have the best chances of hitting.
12 Owner 1 PPR (4th Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 7-6
QB - Watson, Prescott, Carr
WR - Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Josh Reynolds, Justin Watson, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
RB - Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs
TE - T.J. Hockenson, I Thomas, J. Oliver

Picks:
2020-
1.05, 3.06


12 Owner 1 PPR (3rd Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 6-7
QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
RB: David Johnson, Mixon, Hyde
WR: Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Josh Reynolds, Andy Isabella
TE: Kittle, OJ Howard, Chris Herndon

Picks:
2020-
1st and 3rd

12 Owner 1 PPR (1st Season) 1QB 1-3 RB 1-3 WR 1-2 TE
1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
Record: 7-6
QB: Mahomes, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Guice, Penny, Duke Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR: Landry, Sutton, Marvin Jones, Harry, Crowder, Josh Reynolds
TE: Hooper, Goedert

2020:
2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd Round Picks

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby alewilliam789 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:04 am

grandmabetty wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:02 am
alewilliam789 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:55 am
So after combing through athletic testing and putting together all the market share stats the crop really doesn’t look great. The two highest scoring players are going to be Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims as long as they go within the first 4 rounds.

Right now the top players that don’t qualify are:
Jerry Juedy (not even close, even if he’s drafted in the first)
Ceedee Lamb (unfortunately didn’t run in the agility drills and literally missed out by a point).
Henry Ruggs



Players that rank the highest:
Bryan Edwards
Denzel Mims

Players that will qualify as “stud” prospects if they get drafted in the 1st:
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor


Overall my system is a point score system with certain aspects (DR, BA, CDR, Athletic Testing, Draft Capital) that are each individually weighted that add up to a total point score. After testing my system with all the studs/prospects that have athletic testing, BAs, and accurate college info, I’ve successfully shown that this system identified 80% of all the stud WRs that have come into the NFL over the last 10+ years. A “stud” counts as a player to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production at the NFL level.
My thresholds for DR (30%+), BA (50th%+), and CDR (30%+) actually been established from both analyzing a ton of prospects and actually came from studies I’ve read from DLF/Playerprofile finding correlation with these values.
From a prediction standpoint, it has an overall hit rate on all WRs that have fit the stud profile of 76% (I don’t label a WR a bust until their 4th year in the NFL). I also don’t label you a bust if you have been a top 24 PPR WR once.

Most WRs get filtered out from the stud profile anyways due to not having a well-rounded profile so being a stud prospect is pretty selective in itself.

I have found tiers as well. So intuitively the better the prospect the higher they score. The highest tier of my system has a hit rate has a 85%+. The second tier has a hit rate of 77%. The last tier has a hit rate of 59%.

Overall what I’ve found useful is to figure out which prospects are studs and then watch tape to appropriately rank them.

After the draft, if it stills happens, I’ll finalize all the point score profiles for the WRs and report back here
You must be fun to play FF with. Oh look everybody alewilliam won again :D
No I’m still relatively new to fantasy and still have a lot to learn. Thankfully with this system though it has really helped my WR investments/fliers.
12 Owner 1 PPR (4th Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 7-6
QB - Watson, Prescott, Carr
WR - Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Josh Reynolds, Justin Watson, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
RB - Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs
TE - T.J. Hockenson, I Thomas, J. Oliver

Picks:
2020-
1.05, 3.06


12 Owner 1 PPR (3rd Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 6-7
QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
RB: David Johnson, Mixon, Hyde
WR: Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Josh Reynolds, Andy Isabella
TE: Kittle, OJ Howard, Chris Herndon

Picks:
2020-
1st and 3rd

12 Owner 1 PPR (1st Season) 1QB 1-3 RB 1-3 WR 1-2 TE
1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
Record: 7-6
QB: Mahomes, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Guice, Penny, Duke Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR: Landry, Sutton, Marvin Jones, Harry, Crowder, Josh Reynolds
TE: Hooper, Goedert

2020:
2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd Round Picks

alewilliam789
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1045
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 8:01 pm

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby alewilliam789 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:36 am

How do you guys want to consolidate this? I’m not going to share my master spreadsheets because my secret sauce lies in there, but what I’m thinking is to create a spreadsheet with the point scores of all the players that fit the “stud” profile including prospects that have fit the profile with their scores, players that fulfilled the “stud” profile with the point scores, and misses/busts players that qualified with point scores, but never reached their potential.

I’ll try to include a hit rate counter for each tier, an overall hit rate counter, and miss counter. Right now the miss counter sits around 20-21%, with my system identifying 80% of all the players ever to go on to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production and my highest point score tier (70 or above) hitting 80+% of the time.
12 Owner 1 PPR (4th Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 7-6
QB - Watson, Prescott, Carr
WR - Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Josh Reynolds, Justin Watson, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
RB - Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs
TE - T.J. Hockenson, I Thomas, J. Oliver

Picks:
2020-
1.05, 3.06


12 Owner 1 PPR (3rd Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 6-7
QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
RB: David Johnson, Mixon, Hyde
WR: Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Josh Reynolds, Andy Isabella
TE: Kittle, OJ Howard, Chris Herndon

Picks:
2020-
1st and 3rd

12 Owner 1 PPR (1st Season) 1QB 1-3 RB 1-3 WR 1-2 TE
1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
Record: 7-6
QB: Mahomes, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Guice, Penny, Duke Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR: Landry, Sutton, Marvin Jones, Harry, Crowder, Josh Reynolds
TE: Hooper, Goedert

2020:
2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd Round Picks

Johnny B. Goode
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 473
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:18 pm

Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:16 pm

alewilliam789 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:36 am
How do you guys want to consolidate this? I’m not going to share my master spreadsheets because my secret sauce lies in there, but what I’m thinking is to create a spreadsheet with the point scores of all the players that fit the “stud” profile including prospects that have fit the profile with their scores, players that fulfilled the “stud” profile with the point scores, and misses/busts players that qualified with point scores, but never reached their potential.

I’ll try to include a hit rate counter for each tier, an overall hit rate counter, and miss counter. Right now the miss counter sits around 20-21%, with my system identifying 80% of all the players ever to go on to have multiple years of top 24 PPR production and my highest point score tier (70 or above) hitting 80+% of the time.
Do what I do with spreadsheet- protect it and then add it as a google doc, then you can share it without exposing any of the details of the cells. people can see what you want them to see only

I'm working on a secret sauce of sorts using my data points to give value to the raw scores... having fun with it so far.
12 team PPR
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor (R), Dobbins (R), Henderson, R. Anderson,
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Miller
TE: Engram, Hockenson, I Thomas, Warring
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR
QB: Darnold, Bridgewater, Stidham (TX)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Jackson, Ballage, Murray, Samuels, B Hill, Henderson (TX), Ozigbo (TX), Gaskin (TX)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, Lazard, Isabella (TX), P. Williams (TX), JJAW (TX), Doss (TX), S. Miller (TX)
TE: Rudolph, Graham, Sternberger (TX)
K:
DEF: LAR
Picks: 1.1, 1.3, 2.4, 5.7, 2021 1, 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 2, 2021 4, 2021 5


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