2020 Class Advanced Metrics

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Zacsby
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2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Zacsby » Fri Dec 06, 2019 12:20 pm

I just got the data analysis package on playerprofiler and it appears to only include current NFL players. Maybe I'm missing something here but is there a similar tool/list where I can find dominator rating, breakout age, etc for current college players?
I NEED MORE DATAAAAAAAA :twisted:

Thanks in advance!
12 Tm SF PPR - QB, RB (2), WR (2), TE, FLX (2) SF
QB - Lamar, Brees, Daniel Jones, Taysom, Stidham
RB - CMC, AJ, Drake, Cohen, AP
WR - Golladay, Boyd, Landry, Sanders, Mecole
TE - Kelce, Hurst, Rudolph, Oliver

12 Tm SF, Tiered PPR (.5RB, 1WR, 1.5TE) Start 9
QB - Watson, Daniel Jones, Tannehill, Stidham
RB - Kamara, Carson, Penny, Michel, Scott
WR - Nuk, Evans, Ridley, M-Will, P-Will, Washington
TE - Kittle, Rudolph

24 Tm 2 Copy PPR - QB, RB (2), WR (2), TE, FLX (3)
QB - Stafford, Jimmy G, Cousins
RB - CEH, Taylor, Hunt, Singletary, Moss, Breida, Gibson, Darwin
WR - Godwin, Golladay, AJB, M-Will, Ruggs, Higgins, Duvernay
TE - Andrews, Hurst, Herndon
21 Picks - 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Dynasty DeLorean
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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Dec 06, 2019 2:00 pm

Not until closer to the combine/draft

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby alewilliam789 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:28 pm

Zacsby wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 12:20 pm
I just got the data analysis package on playerprofiler and it appears to only include current NFL players. Maybe I'm missing something here but is there a similar tool/list where I can find dominator rating, breakout age, etc for current college players?
I NEED MORE DATAAAAAAAA :twisted:

Thanks in advance!
DLF has the BAs for most of the guys. I have most of the data for the majority of prospects for DR. It’s all hand stuff, but it shouldn’t be off by more than 2-3%. Just PM me
12 Owner 1 PPR (4th Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 7-6
QB - Watson, Prescott, Carr
WR - Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Josh Reynolds, Justin Watson, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
RB - Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs
TE - T.J. Hockenson, I Thomas, J. Oliver

Picks:
2020-
1.05, 3.06


12 Owner 1 PPR (3rd Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 6-7
QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
RB: David Johnson, Mixon, Hyde
WR: Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Josh Reynolds, Andy Isabella
TE: Kittle, OJ Howard, Chris Herndon

Picks:
2020-
1st and 3rd

12 Owner 1 PPR (1st Season) 1QB 1-3 RB 1-3 WR 1-2 TE
1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
Record: 7-6
QB: Mahomes, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Guice, Penny, Duke Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR: Landry, Sutton, Marvin Jones, Harry, Crowder, Josh Reynolds
TE: Hooper, Goedert

2020:
2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd Round Picks

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby alewilliam789 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:32 pm

But if we want to talk about advanced metrics.


Phew Jerry Juedy’s last year is not great. He’s sitting at a 20.6% . It’s awful honestly
12 Owner 1 PPR (4th Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 7-6
QB - Watson, Prescott, Carr
WR - Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Josh Reynolds, Justin Watson, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
RB - Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs
TE - T.J. Hockenson, I Thomas, J. Oliver

Picks:
2020-
1.05, 3.06


12 Owner 1 PPR (3rd Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 6-7
QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
RB: David Johnson, Mixon, Hyde
WR: Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Josh Reynolds, Andy Isabella
TE: Kittle, OJ Howard, Chris Herndon

Picks:
2020-
1st and 3rd

12 Owner 1 PPR (1st Season) 1QB 1-3 RB 1-3 WR 1-2 TE
1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
Record: 7-6
QB: Mahomes, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Guice, Penny, Duke Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR: Landry, Sutton, Marvin Jones, Harry, Crowder, Josh Reynolds
TE: Hooper, Goedert

2020:
2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd Round Picks

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:36 pm

Anyone have data tracking the improvement of prospects 40 times from when they are recruited until they are evaluated for the draft?

16 Team PPR | QB (1) RB (2-4) WR (2-5) TE (1-2) K (1) | DT (1-2) DE (2-4) LB (2-5) CB (3-6) S (2-5)

|QB| J. Allen, D. Lock, E. Stick (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Jacobs, J. Mixon, L. Murray, R. Anderson
|WR| C. Godwin, D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, M. Gallup, J. Ross
|TE| M. Gesicki, I. Thomas, T. Eifert, M. LaCosse
|K| G. Zuerlein, B. Maher
|DT| S. Richardson, Q. Williams, T. Bryan, T. Hill (taxi)
|DE| D. Lawrence, Y. Ngakoue, C. Young, J. Clowney, J. Pierre-Paul, D. Barnett, A. Key, J. Sweat (taxi)
|LB| L. Vander Esch, D. Trevathan, I. Simmons, R. Foster, N. Gerry, M. Kendricks, V. Joseph, T.J. Edwards, S. Dion Hamilton, S. Eguavoen (taxi), S. Ebukam, M. Jefferson, D. Cole, K. Beckwith
|CB| S. Gilmore, D. Trufant, G. Conley, B. Jones, G. Haley
|S| M. Fitzpatrick, T. Walker, X. Woods, E. Murray
|2020 PICKS| 2.05, 3.11, 5.15 & 6.15
|2021 PICKS| #1 (x2), #2, #3
|2022 PICKS| #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:43 pm

alewilliam789 wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:32 pm
But if we want to talk about advanced metrics.


Phew Jerry Juedy’s last year is not great. He’s sitting at a 20.6% . It’s awful honestly
That would be really bad. The Josh Jacobs of receivers I guess

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby alewilliam789 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:03 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:43 pm
alewilliam789 wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:32 pm
But if we want to talk about advanced metrics.


Phew Jerry Juedy’s last year is not great. He’s sitting at a 20.6% . It’s awful honestly
That would be really bad. The Josh Jacobs of receivers I guess
Exactly! We still have at least a bowl game for Alabama so if he’s super dominant in that game 50%+ then he’ll eek out a 30% DR, but overall his analytical profile is more hype than substance at this point. Over his career he hasn’t been especially dominant either so it doesn’t really help his case.
12 Owner 1 PPR (4th Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 7-6
QB - Watson, Prescott, Carr
WR - Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Josh Reynolds, Justin Watson, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
RB - Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs
TE - T.J. Hockenson, I Thomas, J. Oliver

Picks:
2020-
1.05, 3.06


12 Owner 1 PPR (3rd Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 6-7
QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
RB: David Johnson, Mixon, Hyde
WR: Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Josh Reynolds, Andy Isabella
TE: Kittle, OJ Howard, Chris Herndon

Picks:
2020-
1st and 3rd

12 Owner 1 PPR (1st Season) 1QB 1-3 RB 1-3 WR 1-2 TE
1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
Record: 7-6
QB: Mahomes, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Guice, Penny, Duke Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR: Landry, Sutton, Marvin Jones, Harry, Crowder, Josh Reynolds
TE: Hooper, Goedert

2020:
2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd Round Picks

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Hottoddies » Sat Dec 07, 2019 12:43 pm

alewilliam789 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:03 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:43 pm
alewilliam789 wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:32 pm
But if we want to talk about advanced metrics.


Phew Jerry Juedy’s last year is not great. He’s sitting at a 20.6% . It’s awful honestly
That would be really bad. The Josh Jacobs of receivers I guess
Exactly! We still have at least a bowl game for Alabama so if he’s super dominant in that game 50%+ then he’ll eek out a 30% DR, but overall his analytical profile is more hype than substance at this point. Over his career he hasn’t been especially dominant either so it doesn’t really help his case.
Haven't we learned anything from the case of Josh Jacobs about the importance of Dominator Rating?
Megan Phelps' 4 rules of dialogue
1) Don't assume bad intent
2) Ask questions
3) Stay calm
4) Make the argument

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Dec 07, 2019 12:45 pm

alewilliam789 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:03 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:43 pm
alewilliam789 wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:32 pm
But if we want to talk about advanced metrics.


Phew Jerry Juedy’s last year is not great. He’s sitting at a 20.6% . It’s awful honestly
That would be really bad. The Josh Jacobs of receivers I guess
Exactly! We still have at least a bowl game for Alabama so if he’s super dominant in that game 50%+ then he’ll eek out a 30% DR, but overall his analytical profile is more hype than substance at this point. Over his career he hasn’t been especially dominant either so it doesn’t really help his case.
I like Jeudy, but I do think he's over rated by some. I'd prefer a top back in this class over Jeudy, if I had the top pick in a rookie draft. Jeudy is still a good receiver, but amateur film analysis aside, I don't think he's a once in every few years player or anything. He's arguably the best WR in this class, but I don't think he'll be as highly rated in a few months as he was at the start of the college season, unless he blows the combine away, which I don't believe he will. If he runs a sub 4.4, then he could easily jump back up to where he was valued to begin the college year, though.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer/Runner Up

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, D Washington
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Crowder, Agholor, Sanu, , D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Clay

Taxi: Mims, Asiasi

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby IZigUZag » Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:18 pm

Hottoddies wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 12:43 pm
alewilliam789 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:03 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:43 pm


That would be really bad. The Josh Jacobs of receivers I guess
Exactly! We still have at least a bowl game for Alabama so if he’s super dominant in that game 50%+ then he’ll eek out a 30% DR, but overall his analytical profile is more hype than substance at this point. Over his career he hasn’t been especially dominant either so it doesn’t really help his case.
Haven't we learned anything from the case of Josh Jacobs about the importance of Dominator Rating?
DR is not as indicative of NFL success for RBs.

But DR needs to be measured in context. When you have 3 strong WRs (as is the case with Smith, Ruggs, Jeudy) they depress each others Dominator rating.

Shouldve learned this lesson several years ago with Jarvis Landry and OBJ

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:23 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:18 pm
But DR needs to be measured in context. When you have 3 strong WRs (as is the case with Smith, Ruggs, Jeudy) they depress each others Dominator rating.

Shouldve learned this lesson several years ago with Jarvis Landry and OBJ
4* strong WRs, Waddle is a beast too.

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby alewilliam789 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:43 pm

Hottoddies wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 12:43 pm
alewilliam789 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:03 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:43 pm


That would be really bad. The Josh Jacobs of receivers I guess
Exactly! We still have at least a bowl game for Alabama so if he’s super dominant in that game 50%+ then he’ll eek out a 30% DR, but overall his analytical profile is more hype than substance at this point. Over his career he hasn’t been especially dominant either so it doesn’t really help his case.
Haven't we learned anything from the case of Josh Jacobs about the importance of Dominator Rating?
I think you’ve brought this up before.
1. Why are we comparing two completely different positions?
2. There are almost no statistics that show that collegiate WRs with low DRs are productive in the NFL. Even with different circumstances more than 80% of the time studs still show out (30%+ DR) in their last year or at least show high level play throughout their career (30%+ Career Dominator Rating)

Commitees among RBs can drastically limit the touches that RBs can have and how dominant they can be. If you are the teams best WR you will most likely be on the field 80% of the time and if it’s low volume offense DR equalizes that factor because it’s based on the teams total passing and TDs.

Even some of the best WR prospect combos still hit these marks (30%+ DR and 50th%+ BA) including the AJ Brown and DK Metcalf combo from last year and OBJ and Laundry from 2014. I’m sure there’s more too.

The only conceivable argument somebody could make to me is that they don’t play throughout the entire game because their games are often blowouts, but even then most of the WR core plays well into the 3rd with the backup QB.
12 Owner 1 PPR (4th Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 7-6
QB - Watson, Prescott, Carr
WR - Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Josh Reynolds, Justin Watson, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
RB - Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs
TE - T.J. Hockenson, I Thomas, J. Oliver

Picks:
2020-
1.05, 3.06


12 Owner 1 PPR (3rd Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 6-7
QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
RB: David Johnson, Mixon, Hyde
WR: Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Josh Reynolds, Andy Isabella
TE: Kittle, OJ Howard, Chris Herndon

Picks:
2020-
1st and 3rd

12 Owner 1 PPR (1st Season) 1QB 1-3 RB 1-3 WR 1-2 TE
1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
Record: 7-6
QB: Mahomes, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Guice, Penny, Duke Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR: Landry, Sutton, Marvin Jones, Harry, Crowder, Josh Reynolds
TE: Hooper, Goedert

2020:
2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd Round Picks

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:56 pm

alewilliam789 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:43 pm


Even some of the best WR prospect combos still hit these marks (30%+ DR and 50th%+ BA) including the AJ Brown and DK Metcalf combo from last year and OBJ and Laundry from 2014. I’m sure there’s more too.

The only conceivable argument somebody could make to me is that they don’t play throughout the entire game because their games are often blowouts, but even then most of the WR core plays well into the 3rd with the backup QB.
Duo's sure, but I don't know if there has ever been a group of 4 WR's as productive as Jeudy, Ruggs, Smith and Waddle before; they all cut into each others production.

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Zacsby » Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:03 pm

Yeah im very interested in seeing the numbers this year. Dont know much about how DR correlates to RBs but I've read a lot about how it correlates to WRs. Sitting on 1.01, 1.02 and then likely 5 straight picks on the 1-2 turn so im pretty ready to learn what i can now and then wait for the chips to fall.

I do believe the Bama WRs are kind of a special case. But this draft is so deep im gonna be making a lot of tough decisions regardless. Lol
12 Tm SF PPR - QB, RB (2), WR (2), TE, FLX (2) SF
QB - Lamar, Brees, Daniel Jones, Taysom, Stidham
RB - CMC, AJ, Drake, Cohen, AP
WR - Golladay, Boyd, Landry, Sanders, Mecole
TE - Kelce, Hurst, Rudolph, Oliver

12 Tm SF, Tiered PPR (.5RB, 1WR, 1.5TE) Start 9
QB - Watson, Daniel Jones, Tannehill, Stidham
RB - Kamara, Carson, Penny, Michel, Scott
WR - Nuk, Evans, Ridley, M-Will, P-Will, Washington
TE - Kittle, Rudolph

24 Tm 2 Copy PPR - QB, RB (2), WR (2), TE, FLX (3)
QB - Stafford, Jimmy G, Cousins
RB - CEH, Taylor, Hunt, Singletary, Moss, Breida, Gibson, Darwin
WR - Godwin, Golladay, AJB, M-Will, Ruggs, Higgins, Duvernay
TE - Andrews, Hurst, Herndon
21 Picks - 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby alewilliam789 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:09 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:18 pm
Hottoddies wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 12:43 pm
alewilliam789 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:03 am


Exactly! We still have at least a bowl game for Alabama so if he’s super dominant in that game 50%+ then he’ll eek out a 30% DR, but overall his analytical profile is more hype than substance at this point. Over his career he hasn’t been especially dominant either so it doesn’t really help his case.
Haven't we learned anything from the case of Josh Jacobs about the importance of Dominator Rating?
DR is not as indicative of NFL success for RBs.

But DR needs to be measured in context. When you have 3 strong WRs (as is the case with Smith, Ruggs, Jeudy) they depress each others Dominator rating.

Shouldve learned this lesson several years ago with Jarvis Landry and OBJ
Now I can agree with this. If we could make a DR multiplier that we could multiply DRs by to calibrate the quality of talent around them. I was actually trying to figure a way to do this with small-school prospects because they often have sky-high DRs while also being fair.

The problems would come from these two questions:

1. How can we objectively define quality of teammates and talent around?

I would assume we could approach this from a market share perspective. So let’s say we have two WRs, and the WR we are scouting. If each of those players makes up some minimum designated DR rating (let’s say 20-30% for the WRs) from a receiving yardage standpoint then what we could do is say for every added player with a 20-30% DR that’s apart of the team we multiple the DR of the player we are scouting and the players in the corps by 1.X times the DR.

Where 1.X could be 1.5, 1.6, 1.7.

2. Finding a statistically relevant multiplier.

So to this yes we can multiply by 1.5 or 1.6, but does this actually give us an accurate representation of the adjusted market share of the WR in a competitive WR corps relative to players that were outright dominant by themselves?
12 Owner 1 PPR (4th Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 7-6
QB - Watson, Prescott, Carr
WR - Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Josh Reynolds, Justin Watson, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
RB - Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs
TE - T.J. Hockenson, I Thomas, J. Oliver

Picks:
2020-
1.05, 3.06


12 Owner 1 PPR (3rd Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 6-7
QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
RB: David Johnson, Mixon, Hyde
WR: Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Josh Reynolds, Andy Isabella
TE: Kittle, OJ Howard, Chris Herndon

Picks:
2020-
1st and 3rd

12 Owner 1 PPR (1st Season) 1QB 1-3 RB 1-3 WR 1-2 TE
1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
Record: 7-6
QB: Mahomes, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Guice, Penny, Duke Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR: Landry, Sutton, Marvin Jones, Harry, Crowder, Josh Reynolds
TE: Hooper, Goedert

2020:
2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd Round Picks


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