Allen Robinson - The Forgotten Stud?

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Johnny Canuck
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Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Postby Johnny Canuck » Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:41 am

Thinking about making a trade for Arob, and I'm not crazy high on him, however, lots of people love him. Why? Are they still holding on to 2015? or is there something there? can anyone convince me otherwise?

These are the reasons I'm not all that high on him...

There are a ton of variables to consider with this player, and his career thus far has been a Jekyll and Hyde of sorts.

2015
While he did have one amazing fantasy season in 2015, most of his stats from this season came in garbage time, with Bortles just throwing up a prayer/air raid style late in the 4th (remember the Jags were absolute garbage in 2015).

2016
In 2016 Arob received similar target/opportunity numbers to 2015, but was a complete dud, ending up as a WR3 (WR #31 to be exact). Although he had a bad year, this is mostly blamed on Bortles who played very poor throughout the season.

So his good season is disputed due to garbage time, while his bad season is disputed due to bad QB play.

- Was he actually good in 2015, or was he just playing against defenses that didn't care that point in the game?
- Was it all on Bortles on 2016? or was some of it to blame on Arob? drops? giving up on route? etc.

Honest questions, I don't watch every Jags game, so I'm curious.

2017
Then there's the injury to consider. He should recover fine by all accounts, but there's always a risk that previous ACL injury can sap some explosiveness.

2018
The question here is where does he play? It sounded like it's a foregone conclusion that he will be back on the Jags, which will bad for his fantasy value imo. The Jags will continue to have Bortles, and they have far more receiving weapons than they had in 2015 (when Arob was the only show in town).

NTM in both 2015 & 2016 Arob had 150 targets, however, the team is more run/defense based with the additions of Fournette and Ramsey/etc, and no wide receiver had over 96 targets on the year for 2017. If Arob doesn't get around 150 targets in 2018, there is almost zero chance he'll be in the top 12 WRs. Bortles isn't accurate enough to give Arob the efficiency numbers he'd need to be a top WR with lower target volume. It's not like Arob is efficient either, he has a career catch rate of 53% (although it might likely be 5% higher with a better QB, but even a 58% catch rate isn't great).

The flip side is, now that they have these weapons in lee, westbrook, cole, etc. do they just let Arob walk? which could be great for Arob if he goes to a dream scenario like San Fran.

At least he's young so that's a positive. But is he the player we saw in 2015? Or the player we saw in 2016? Does he fully recover from his injury? Is he back on the Jags? Where do you rank him among WRs for 2018?

For 2018, I have at least all these WRs before Arob (in no particular order).
1. Brown
2. OBJ
3. Hopkins
4. Evans
5. M. Thomas
6. AJG
7. Julio
8. Adams
9. K. Allen
10. Tyreek
11. Hilton
12. Cook
13. Baldwin
14. J. Gordon

and maybe these guys to...

15. Jeffery
16. Diggs
17. Thielan
Last edited by Johnny Canuck on Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:51 am, edited 3 times in total.
Half pt ppr dynasty - start 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1Flex

QB: Rodgers, Baker
RB: Gurley, Sony, Ingram, Lamar Miller, Love
WR: Julio, AJG, Hilton, Adams, Gallup, Hollywood Brown, Dede, Washington, Renfrow, Pettis
TE: Kelce, Sternberger, Gesicki

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captain howdy
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Re: Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Postby captain howdy » Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:49 am

He was open and bortles couldn't connect in 2016

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Phaded
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Re: Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Postby Phaded » Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:53 am

I am cautiously optimistic..
ARob is very good..
But Bortles is so.. so.. bad..

He will be their clear #1 - but with a run first team with a great defense.. Not sure he gets the targets to be anything more than a WR2.

Also I am 99% convinced he will be there in 2018.

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Johnny Canuck
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Re: Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Postby Johnny Canuck » Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:07 am

Another thing to consider. the vast majority of Arobs yardage in 2015 came from deeper targets.

Regarding catches that traveled more than 15 yards in the air: in 2015, Robinson caught 31 of 63 targets for 949 yards (68% of his overall yardage) and two touchdowns.

In 2016, he caught 15 of 49 targets for 330 yards and no touchdowns.

While this regression can be blamed on Bortles, what if he simply doesn't get as many of these looks now that they have a possibly better deep threat in Westbrook.

Even less deep/overall targets + bad QB = worse numbers

Hopefully, his numbers are better than 2016, but I'm not expecting them to be a ton better. I agree that Bortles is bad, but I don't think that Arob will bounce back and be the stud everyone is expecting of him. I am currently expecting him to end up anywhere between WR 14-22. Maybe something similar to what Baldwin did this season, 60-1000-8 if I had to place a number on it.
Last edited by Johnny Canuck on Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:14 am, edited 3 times in total.
Half pt ppr dynasty - start 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1Flex

QB: Rodgers, Baker
RB: Gurley, Sony, Ingram, Lamar Miller, Love
WR: Julio, AJG, Hilton, Adams, Gallup, Hollywood Brown, Dede, Washington, Renfrow, Pettis
TE: Kelce, Sternberger, Gesicki

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snaps06
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Re: Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Postby snaps06 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:09 am

Talented - yes

In a great situation to be a WR1 or even a high-end WR2 - no

I'm not investing in him any any dynasty leagues, personally. I hope he proves me wrong for his own sake....but I don't think he will.
Team 1: 12-Team 0.5 PPR '16 & '17 3rd Place
REBUILDING 2019
QB RB RB WR WR TE Flex Flex Flex
Kyler,Stafford
Duke,Gio,Yeldon,Mattison,Snell
Cooper,Juju,Godwin,AJB,Kirk,Washington
Henry,Andrews,Everett
2020 Picks: 5,8,12,15,18,24,25,27,29,32
2021: 1,2,2,2,2,3,4,5

Team 2: 12-Team 0.5 PPR '17 2nd Place
QB RB RB WR WR TE Flex Flex
Rodgers,Stafford
Zeke,Conner,Bell,Dillon,Duke,Mattison,Edmonds
Hopkins,Thomas,Cooks,Watkins,MWilliams,Claypool
Kittle,Henry

Team 3: 14-Team SF,PPR,0.25/rush '18 3rd Place
QB RB RB WR WR TE Flex Flex Flex SFlex
Cousins,Kyler,Hoyer
Zeke,LMurray,Ingram,Scarborough,Gio,BHill
Evans,DJMoore,Watkins,Boyd,Davis,Lazard
Fant,McDonald,Fells

Team 4: 16-Team, 6 pt all TD,PPR Startup 2019
QB RB RB WR WR TE FLEX FLEX
Stafford,Tanny,Stidham
KJ,Jacobs,RFreeman,Mattison,BHill
DJMoore,Lockett,Watkins,Isabella,Washington,Ross,Perriman
Howard,Herndon,Fells
2020 Picks: 6,9,10
2021:1,1,2,2,3,4

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Cowboysfan33
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Re: Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Postby Cowboysfan33 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:17 am

Phaded wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:53 am
I am cautiously optimistic..
ARob is very good..
But Bortles is so.. so.. bad..

He will be their clear #1 - but with a run first team with a great defense.. Not sure he gets the targets to be anything more than a WR2.

Also I am 99% convinced he will be there in 2018.
This for me. I’m actually a big fan of AROB but with the style that the Jags want to play now, I don’t think he can reach those 2015 number in Jax. I’m holding all of my AROB shares for now though, just hoping they don’t tag him or they tag and trade him.

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Dynasty DeLorean
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Re: Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:18 am

Johnny Canuck wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:41 am

2015
While he did have one amazing fantasy season in 2015, most of his stats from this season came in garbage time
his production premium was +18.5 in 2015. Why do ppl keep saying this.

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BigBawseRoss
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Re: Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Postby BigBawseRoss » Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:34 am

I like him and I guess i just dont worry too much about if he stinks due to situation for one more season and the ACL doesnt worry me even a little bit with how everyone seems to recovery these days.

Robinson showed his ability during his rookie year and he came on strong in the 2nd half of the year, then exploded for a monster season his sophomore year, followed by the dreaded 3rd year campaign where he didnt crack 1k yards despite the targets. 2 out of 3 seasons hes been healthy and shown he is a top level player and the 1 down year im sure you can find a stat showing how many of his targets were catchable balls and it will show that a high percent were intended for him but had no chance of being completed (purely remember that from last offseason discussions not from my own actual research so if i'm off-base forgive me).

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stat ... ught/2016/ (here is a link i just found that shows team catch rate vs targets. Jags were in the bottom 5 during 2016.)
team 1
12 team, 1 pt for 4 rec, 0.1 per rush
1qb, 3 rb, 4 wr, te, k, 4 idp
Rivers , Rosen, Fitzpatrick, Tyrod
Kamara, McCoy, D FreemanCohen, Bibbs, Clement,J. Allen, ty mont,Ito Smith
K Allen, Hopkins, M Williams, AROB Alshon,KeKe,MVS,T McLaurin
Ebron Graham, Njoku, Irv

team 2
12 team .5ppr
qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, te, flx,flx,
Trubitsky, Dak
Chubb,Mixon, D Henry,Coleman, D Harris, Armstead, Mostert
Hopkins, K Allen, M Evans, C Davis, Watkins, Arob, M Williams, Edleman, J Gordon, Hurd
Ertz, Everett, Fant


team 3
http://www61.myfantasyleague.com/2019/o ... =07&F=0008

team 4
https://www55.myfantasyleague.com/2019/ ... =07&F=0010

team 5
http://www57.myfantasyleague.com/2019/o ... =0008&O=07

team 6
http://www54.myfantasyleague.com/2019/o ... =07&F=0004

team 7
https://www51.myfantasyleague.com/2019/ ... =07&F=0011

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Johnny Canuck
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Re: Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Postby Johnny Canuck » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:07 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:18 am
Johnny Canuck wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:41 am

2015
While he did have one amazing fantasy season in 2015, most of his stats from this season came in garbage time
his production premium was +18.5 in 2015. Why do ppl keep saying this.
I hadn't looked at production premium, but that is an interesting stat to consider. I'm not sure it'll have much relevance on his 2018 production, but it's worth noting. So based on this stat, you're saying that 2015 wasn't a product of playing defenses that didn't care.

I did a quick scan over the game logs from 2015 and it appears that approx half of Arobs TDs from 2015 either came in the 4th quarter, or when the game was already out of reach (garbage time). Guessing that ppl (myself included) continue to reiterate this because scoring plays are usually what sticks out in ppls minds. That and the Jags were so bad, it's just easy to assume that everything was garbage time, tricky things those assumptions.
Half pt ppr dynasty - start 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1Flex

QB: Rodgers, Baker
RB: Gurley, Sony, Ingram, Lamar Miller, Love
WR: Julio, AJG, Hilton, Adams, Gallup, Hollywood Brown, Dede, Washington, Renfrow, Pettis
TE: Kelce, Sternberger, Gesicki

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Dynasty DeLorean
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Re: Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:15 pm

What’s inherently wrong with tds in the 4th quarter?

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Johnny Canuck
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Re: Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Postby Johnny Canuck » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:20 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:15 pm
What’s inherently wrong with tds in the 4th quarter?
nothing. I was just attempting to answer your question "why do ppl keep saying this."
Half pt ppr dynasty - start 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1Flex

QB: Rodgers, Baker
RB: Gurley, Sony, Ingram, Lamar Miller, Love
WR: Julio, AJG, Hilton, Adams, Gallup, Hollywood Brown, Dede, Washington, Renfrow, Pettis
TE: Kelce, Sternberger, Gesicki

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Re: Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Postby Pac_Eddy » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:22 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:15 pm
What’s inherently wrong with tds in the 4th quarter?
People find fault in garbage time 4th quarter TDs. The assumption is the opponent is playing prevent defense, giving up chunks of yards, catches, and TDs in exchange to burn the clock. So the WR may not be that good, just getting a lot of garbage time production.
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.

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Re: Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:24 pm

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:22 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:15 pm
What’s inherently wrong with tds in the 4th quarter?
People find fault in garbage time 4th quarter TDs. The assumption is the opponent is playing prevent defense, giving up chunks of yards, catches, and TDs in exchange to burn the clock. So the WR may not be that good, just getting a lot of garbage time production.
No he separated 4th quarter tds from garbage time tds. I know what garbage time is. I may have misunderstood the point he was trying to make.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:25 pm

Johnny Canuck wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:20 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:15 pm
What’s inherently wrong with tds in the 4th quarter?
nothing. I was just attempting to answer your question "why do ppl keep saying this."
I got ya, understood

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Johnny Canuck
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Re: Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Postby Johnny Canuck » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:26 pm

Phaded wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:53 am
I am cautiously optimistic..
ARob is very good..
But Bortles is so.. so.. bad..

He will be their clear #1 - but with a run first team with a great defense.. Not sure he gets the targets to be anything more than a WR2.

Also I am 99% convinced he will be there in 2018.
After reading a ton of different articles and trying to dig into Arobs situation. I believe this is likely the most accurate outlook for Arob. A great player if used correctly, but stuck in a pretty bad situation for fantasy purposes.

WR2 while he's stuck on the new look Jags w/Bortles at QB.

Jumps to WR1 if he leaves the Jags (depending on the team).
Half pt ppr dynasty - start 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1Flex

QB: Rodgers, Baker
RB: Gurley, Sony, Ingram, Lamar Miller, Love
WR: Julio, AJG, Hilton, Adams, Gallup, Hollywood Brown, Dede, Washington, Renfrow, Pettis
TE: Kelce, Sternberger, Gesicki


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