Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

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Re: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

Postby jenkins.math » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:12 am

Jigga94 wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 5:54 am
jenkins.math wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:52 am
Sriracha wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:41 am

At the NFL level, the job of a QB is to win games.

You're trying to reduce Lamar to "running QB". He's not similar to running QBs like Vince Young, and Tim Tebow. He's Lamar Jackson, and the closest comparison we have to him is Michael Vick -- who was a perennial pro bowler with a 44 - 56% completion percentage as a Falcon. The level of speed, elusiveness and ability to throw on the run is just on a completely different level from the QBs you're trying to compare him to. No running QB has ever seen this level of success over a 30 game stretch.

People are free to have their reservations because they don't have a neat blue print to judge him against; but this assumption of failure based on incongruent comparisons is what I don't agree with.
Obviously you are firmly entrenched in your stance, but you are ignoring all the history and previous experiences of running QBs with a rebuttal of "he's Lamar Jackson"?!? Well I guess that settles that...
Is he not more talented than the rest of the "rushing QBs" though? He just listed a bunch that were awful QB and couldn't hack it. Then there's Vick, who had lots of success but was an abysmal thrower. Lamar is already doing more than what Vick did. It doesn't seem fair to box him in with the old rushing QB standard.

This isn't to say I don't have questions about his talents as a thrower, but I think they are already better than the rushing QBs we've seen recently. Add on top of this, that he's winning games still! The only losses this year are to the SB defending Chiefs and the undefeated Steelers. Now, this is a concern for me... Can he win the big games, can he come from behind and win? That may always be a weakness, but regardless, he's great for fantasy.

I really do see people's concerns with the guy because of what they have to compare him to... But c'mon he's already proven to be better than who he's being compared to.
Being "more talented" is really hard to quantify as it varies from person to person. I think he is probably the most dynamic runner, but that also concerns me because I have zero faith in him if his legs suddenly fail him. If the legs are the best part of your game then your expected shelf life is undoubtedly shortened. I'm not arguing whose star burned brightest, but these running QBs tend to have one astronomical year that ends up being an outlier. You say it isn't fair to compare him to past QBs, but I also don't think its fair to just ignore the career arc the majority of them had either.

I honestly don't even know if Lamar is that much better than some of his predecessors vs how much more he has benefited because his team literally built and catered an entire offense around his running ability first and his passing second. None of those other running QBs had a system as helpful as Lamar has gotten. He benefited greatly last year from a brand new offense that the NFL hadn't dealt with. Ironically the team that slowed him down and laid the blueprint was the Titans, which was ripe with defensive coaches from the college ranks. The offense isn't near as effective this year and I think there is plenty of reasons. Yanda retiring hurt big time, teams having all offseason to pick up tendencies and tells, and I don't see much innovation from the offense from last year to this year. Now I don't know if that is covid related, personnel related, or Lamar struggling to handle additional things, but their offense last year was basic. Extremely effective, but very very basic. You can't just keep running a super basic offense at this level and continue having high levels of success.

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Re: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:27 am

I'm glad you touched on the OL and Yanda retiring. That's been a huge factor this season too. Stanley out for the year now is going to be tough for them to adjust.

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Re: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

Postby thebeast » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:54 am

Nice to see this thread bumped! As the OP of the current title (I know another thread was merged into this one), my original statement was that I thought Lamar was the best QB in the NFL and for fantasy and that he would continue to develop at a rapid pace and turn into a truly elite passer with elite running ability. Basically, we hadn't seen his ceiling yet. So, with that in mind, I am here to say that I got this one wrong. Lamar has not taken the next step this year and while I believe he is still a very good QB who will continue to develop, there is no doubt that Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL. The best QB for fantasy though is still debatable.

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Re: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

Postby ThunderTung » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:58 am

thebeast wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:54 am Nice to see this thread bumped! As the OP of the current title (I know another thread was merged into this one), my original statement was that I thought Lamar was the best QB in the NFL and for fantasy and that he would continue to develop at a rapid pace and turn into a truly elite passer with elite running ability. Basically, we hadn't seen his ceiling yet. So, with that in mind, I am here to say that I got this one wrong. Lamar has not taken the next step this year and while I believe he is still a very good QB who will continue to develop, there is no doubt that Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL. The best QB for fantasy though is still debatable.
good on you for admitting that, definitely a rarity to see in the fantasy community haha
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Re: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

Postby Sriracha » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:41 pm

jenkins.math wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:12 am Being "more talented" is really hard to quantify as it varies from person to person. I think he is probably the most dynamic runner, but that also concerns me because I have zero faith in him if his legs suddenly fail him. If the legs are the best part of your game then your expected shelf life is undoubtedly shortened. I'm not arguing whose star burned brightest, but these running QBs tend to have one astronomical year that ends up being an outlier. You say it isn't fair to compare him to past QBs, but I also don't think its fair to just ignore the career arc the majority of them had either.

I honestly don't even know if Lamar is that much better than some of his predecessors vs how much more he has benefited because his team literally built and catered an entire offense around his running ability first and his passing second. None of those other running QBs had a system as helpful as Lamar has gotten. He benefited greatly last year from a brand new offense that the NFL hadn't dealt with. Ironically the team that slowed him down and laid the blueprint was the Titans, which was ripe with defensive coaches from the college ranks. The offense isn't near as effective this year and I think there is plenty of reasons. Yanda retiring hurt big time, teams having all offseason to pick up tendencies and tells, and I don't see much innovation from the offense from last year to this year. Now I don't know if that is covid related, personnel related, or Lamar struggling to handle additional things, but their offense last year was basic. Extremely effective, but very very basic. You can't just keep running a super basic offense at this level and continue having high levels of success.
Lamar is very clearly more talented than Tebow or Vince Young. He's a threat to score a touchdown everytime he touches the ball. That is a threat that the other QBs simply did not have. I would also say he's already shown more passing ability than any of those guys in addition to being a much more dangerous runner and is much more elusive in the pocket. If anyone is firmly entrenched on their position, it's you. :ewink:

If his success is simply the result of his offense being engineered around his unique traits (Doubtful, but let's assume you're right) that's an advantage he has that the litany of failed running QBs did not have; also leading you to the conclusion that his future success will have a different trajectory from those QBs that were thrown into more conventional NFL offenses (we'll ignore that TEN definitely tailored their offense to Vince Young's running ability lol).

This offense isn't basic, at all. And you're really underestimating what a unicorn of a talent Lamar is. For me, the only real concern I have with Lamar is an increased susceptibility to injury given how many hits he takes.

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Re: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

Postby jenkins.math » Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:34 pm

Sriracha wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:41 pm
jenkins.math wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:12 am Being "more talented" is really hard to quantify as it varies from person to person. I think he is probably the most dynamic runner, but that also concerns me because I have zero faith in him if his legs suddenly fail him. If the legs are the best part of your game then your expected shelf life is undoubtedly shortened. I'm not arguing whose star burned brightest, but these running QBs tend to have one astronomical year that ends up being an outlier. You say it isn't fair to compare him to past QBs, but I also don't think its fair to just ignore the career arc the majority of them had either.

I honestly don't even know if Lamar is that much better than some of his predecessors vs how much more he has benefited because his team literally built and catered an entire offense around his running ability first and his passing second. None of those other running QBs had a system as helpful as Lamar has gotten. He benefited greatly last year from a brand new offense that the NFL hadn't dealt with. Ironically the team that slowed him down and laid the blueprint was the Titans, which was ripe with defensive coaches from the college ranks. The offense isn't near as effective this year and I think there is plenty of reasons. Yanda retiring hurt big time, teams having all offseason to pick up tendencies and tells, and I don't see much innovation from the offense from last year to this year. Now I don't know if that is covid related, personnel related, or Lamar struggling to handle additional things, but their offense last year was basic. Extremely effective, but very very basic. You can't just keep running a super basic offense at this level and continue having high levels of success.
Lamar is very clearly more talented than Tebow or Vince Young. He's a threat to score a touchdown everytime he touches the ball. That is a threat that the other QBs simply did not have. I would also say he's already shown more passing ability than any of those guys in addition to being a much more dangerous runner and is much more elusive in the pocket. If anyone is firmly entrenched on their position, it's you. :ewink:

If his success is simply the result of his offense being engineered around his unique traits (Doubtful, but let's assume you're right) that's an advantage he has that the litany of failed running QBs did not have; also leading you to the conclusion that his future success will have a different trajectory from those QBs that were thrown into more conventional NFL offenses (we'll ignore that TEN definitely tailored their offense to Vince Young's running ability lol).

This offense isn't basic, at all. And you're really underestimating what a unicorn of a talent Lamar is. For me, the only real concern I have with Lamar is an increased susceptibility to injury given how many hits he takes.
I'm not sure anybody has said that Tebow or Vince Young were better talents than Lamar. If you're using those 2 as your litmus test then I would suggest you raise your standards. Lamar's MVP season was more impressive than those guy's entire careers put together. At this point you seem to just be manufacturing a stance to argue against it yourself.

What I don't understand, and so many others have asked in various ways but you continue to move the goalposts and dance around it, is this: why do you seem to think there is zero chance Lamar won't improve? This isn't Madden where players get better every single year like clockwork. You say that I am entrenched in my stance, yet I'll admit that Lamar could drastically improve as a passer. I don't think it is likely, but it is in the range of outcomes. You have yet to mention the possibility of Lamar not reaching the unicorn ceiling you believe he has outside of injury. You are virtually saying he is a guarantee to be a HOFer and one of the greatest to ever do it.

You said we shouldn't care as long as what Lamar did was repeatable. I told you to name your wager on that and I'll take the under and then you immediately backtrack on that stance.

Also, Vince Young was forced on Jeff Fisher, who didn't alter that offense at all. He wanted him to run the same boring Kerry Collins, 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense, than tailor that offense to a guy he didn't want or like. Heck, VY wasn't even wanted by his HC or GM and was forced on them by the owner. So I'm not sure what version of history you are referring to, but VY didn't have anything close to an offense like Lamar is benefiting from.

At this point though we will just to agree to disagree because I don't see any common ground or even productive discussion at this stage.

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Re: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

Postby Sriracha » Tue Nov 10, 2020 6:25 pm

jenkins.math wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:34 pm I'm not sure anybody has said that Tebow or Vince Young were better talents than Lamar. If you're using those 2 as your litmus test then I would suggest you raise your standards. Lamar's MVP season was more impressive than those guy's entire careers put together. At this point you seem to just be manufacturing a stance to argue against it yourself.

What I don't understand, and so many others have asked in various ways but you continue to move the goalposts and dance around it, is this: why do you seem to think there is zero chance Lamar won't improve? This isn't Madden where players get better every single year like clockwork. You say that I am entrenched in my stance, yet I'll admit that Lamar could drastically improve as a passer. I don't think it is likely, but it is in the range of outcomes. You have yet to mention the possibility of Lamar not reaching the unicorn ceiling you believe he has outside of injury. You are virtually saying he is a guarantee to be a HOFer and one of the greatest to ever do it.

You said we shouldn't care as long as what Lamar did was repeatable. I told you to name your wager on that and I'll take the under and then you immediately backtrack on that stance.

Also, Vince Young was forced on Jeff Fisher, who didn't alter that offense at all. He wanted him to run the same boring Kerry Collins, 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense, than tailor that offense to a guy he didn't want or like. Heck, VY wasn't even wanted by his HC or GM and was forced on them by the owner. So I'm not sure what version of history you are referring to, but VY didn't have anything close to an offense like Lamar is benefiting from.

At this point though we will just to agree to disagree because I don't see any common ground or even productive discussion at this stage.
These "moving the goal posts" accusations really need to stop. It's a clear sign you're grasping at straws and willfully misrepresenting my arguments.

I never said that there is 0 chance Lamar doesn't improve. I said that he is fine as an NFL QB and a fantasy asset as he is and that he has continued to improve, and that we haven't seen his ceiling as passer. The regression in production this year is largely TD based; which is known to be finicky from year to year for every QB -- not just Lamar.

I haven't backtracked on any stance, I clarified because it seemed like you misinterpreted what I meant.. if you really want to make some kind of internet machizmo laden bet against Lamar's future success state your terms and we can PM each other details.

I'm not sure what history you're remembering.. but they most definitely tried to abuse Vince Youngs mobility and incorporated many QB bootlegs, QB draws, and option plays into the offense. You're exaggerating on how revolutionary BAL's offense is with Lamar. Perhaps BAL has implemented these plays at a higher rate than the past offenses, I haven't checked, and don't care to check, but there's nothing they're doing here that hasn't already been done before.
You have yet to mention the possibility of Lamar not reaching the unicorn ceiling you believe he has outside of injury. You are virtually saying he is a guarantee to be a HOFer and one of the greatest to ever do it.
Again.. you're willfully misinterpreting my arguments. I have never said or implied that Lamar is a future HoFer or a future GOAT. I have simply said that I believe Lamar is a unicorn, his production is repeatable, and that he is here to stay for the foreseeable future and not a flash in the pan.

edit: forgot to talk about this
I'm not sure anybody has said that Tebow or Vince Young were better talents than Lamar. If you're using those 2 as your litmus test then I would suggest you raise your standards.
I only mentioned them because they were specifically mentioned as a case against Lamar's future prospects. I'm glad we can agree that they do not belong in this discussion. If you want to compare Lamar to a running QB like Cam Newton, that would be more relevant... but I don't think many people would complain about having a 24 year old Cam Newton.
Last edited by Sriracha on Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

Postby gogobradyarm » Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:16 pm

I bought high and he hasn't lived up to expectations. That said, people are ripping on him too much. He is going to bounce back.
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Re: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

Postby mild » Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:59 pm

gogobradyarm wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:16 pm I bought high and he hasn't lived up to expectations. That said, people are ripping on him too much. He is going to bounce back.
Ravens remaining schedule is niiiiiiiiiiiice apart from the PIT game.

Week 10 - Pats
Week 11 - Titans
Week 12 - PIT
Week 13 - Cowboys
Week 14 - Jags
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That fantasy playoff run looking juicy.

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Re: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:55 pm

mild wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:59 pm
gogobradyarm wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:16 pm I bought high and he hasn't lived up to expectations. That said, people are ripping on him too much. He is going to bounce back.
Ravens remaining schedule is niiiiiiiiiiiice apart from the PIT game.

Week 10 - Pats
Week 11 - Titans
Week 12 - PIT
Week 13 - Cowboys
Week 14 - Jags
Week 15 - Giants
Week 16 - Bungles

That fantasy playoff run looking juicy.
Not to mention they are likely fighting for the division still come late in the season

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Re: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

Postby gogobradyarm » Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:08 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:55 pm
mild wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:59 pm
gogobradyarm wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:16 pm I bought high and he hasn't lived up to expectations. That said, people are ripping on him too much. He is going to bounce back.
Ravens remaining schedule is niiiiiiiiiiiice apart from the PIT game.

Week 10 - Pats
Week 11 - Titans
Week 12 - PIT
Week 13 - Cowboys
Week 14 - Jags
Week 15 - Giants
Week 16 - Bungles

That fantasy playoff run looking juicy.
Not to mention they are likely fighting for the division still come late in the season
and hopefully late into games so he isn't resting the entirety of some 4th quarters.
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Re: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

Postby Orenthal Shames » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:47 am

Jakobi Meyers > Lamar Jackson at throwing a football.
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Re: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:42 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Sat May 09, 2020 7:56 am
Cult of Dionysus wrote: Fri May 08, 2020 10:30 pm Yeah, I dont buy the "defenses will adjust" argument.
You should to some degree. It happens to everyone. Can defenses scheme ways to contain him in the pocket better? It's certainly possible.

At the bare minimum, touchdown regression is inevitable. A 9% TD Rate is not sustainable. Mahomes went from a 8.6% TD rate to 5.4 last year. Also, a QB running for 1000+ rushing yards every year, is probably not sustainable either. He will get injured leaving the pocket so much, despite the fact that he's arguably the most gifted runner we've ever seen at the position.

Jackson will continue to be good, but these numbers are going to take a hit. People are going to reach on him in redraft leagues or buy high in dynasty and be disappointed.
This is from the offseason. Looks like Jackson actually could flirt with another 1000 yard rushing season, but the big things here:

- TD Rate% went from 9 to 5.7

- Averaged 10.86 Play Action pass attempts in 2019, averaging 6.5 this year

- 78.6% of his passes in 2019 were considered "on target", only 63.6% of them are this year

- 6 interceptions last year, 5 interceptions this year

- Sacked 23 times last year, already sacked 23 times this year

Explains a lot.

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Re: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

Postby CGW » Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:04 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:42 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Sat May 09, 2020 7:56 am
Cult of Dionysus wrote: Fri May 08, 2020 10:30 pm Yeah, I dont buy the "defenses will adjust" argument.
You should to some degree. It happens to everyone. Can defenses scheme ways to contain him in the pocket better? It's certainly possible.

At the bare minimum, touchdown regression is inevitable. A 9% TD Rate is not sustainable. Mahomes went from a 8.6% TD rate to 5.4 last year. Also, a QB running for 1000+ rushing yards every year, is probably not sustainable either. He will get injured leaving the pocket so much, despite the fact that he's arguably the most gifted runner we've ever seen at the position.

Jackson will continue to be good, but these numbers are going to take a hit. People are going to reach on him in redraft leagues or buy high in dynasty and be disappointed.
This is from the offseason. Looks like Jackson actually could flirt with another 1000 yard rushing season, but the big things here:

- TD Rate% went from 9 to 5.7

- Averaged 10.86 Play Action pass attempts in 2019, averaging 6.5 this year

- 78.6% of his passes in 2019 were considered "on target", only 63.6% of them are this year

- 6 interceptions last year, 5 interceptions this year

- Sacked 23 times last year, already sacked 23 times this year

Explains a lot.
Good YoY comparison. Lamar was due for regression. Some of that obviously falls on the playcalling, but there is also an element of defenses understanding how to force Lamar into situations he just isn't good at.

You can tell the ravens are having some issues, with Lamar and Hollywood both publicly calling out the playcalling.

All that said, last night is a terrible game to base much of anything off of. There were 10+ drops on both sides of the ball due to rain, not to mention multiple bad snaps, etc.
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Re: Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the NFL & Fantasy

Postby Orenthal Shames » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:35 am

If you were starting a franchise with the current crop of young QBs, I think Jackson would fall in the same range as Goff, around 8-10ish.

With another strong incoming class, he could easily fall further.
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RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2


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